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Axis Power Craps Dice Control Seminar DVD!
The seminar is available in both a Limited and a Full Version. The Limited Version of the DVD includes the portion of the seminar that deals specifically with the mechanics of the grip and toss, along with roughly twenty minutes of tossing and coaching live at the craps table. Running time is approximately forty minutes. Order the limited version via PayPal now for just $89.00 plus shipping and handling. US customers add $4 shipping and handling. Canadian customers add $6 shipping and handling.
The Full Version contains all of the above - and more. Almost three hours of player education featuring the best dice sets, grips, tosses, and more. In addition, we cover betting strategies, money management, discipline, focus, the mental edge, and playing the comp game to win. You'll also receive the seminar workbook, strategy cards, and a pair of Dice Coach dice as an added bonus. Order the Full version via PayPal below for just $189.00 plus shipping and handling. US customers add $6 shipping and handling. Canadian customers add $11 shipping and handling.
If you prefer to pay by check or money order, send your remittance to:
Steve "Heavy" Haltom
P.O. Box 7094
Tyler, Texas 75711
Please include your shipping address and an e-mail address for order confirmation.
The Axis Power Craps Clinic on DVD - it's the next best thing to being there! |
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Struggling with the Math by Steve ''Heavy'' Haltom
Posted on Sunday, August 03 @ 16:57:04 EDT by heavy |
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From time to time I talk about the struggles craps players face when dealing with casino math. Essentially we players come from three different schools. First off there are advantage players who base 100% of their play on mathematical decisions. It doesn't matter to these guys if the four has just rolled six times in a row - they are going to stick with the Pass Line and maximum odds, a couple of Come bets with maximum odds, and may on occasion place the six and eight.
Next on the list are the serious recreational players who rely largely on the math of the game when making decisions, but who also stay attuned to things advantage players say don't exist in craps - things like streaks and trends. Serious recreational players tend to rely more on Place bets than Come bets with odds because "a number has to roll twice for you to get paid if you bet the Come." They overlook the hard math associated with that decision in favor of non-math based logic.
Last of all, there's the recreational gambler who doesn't worry about the math of the game at all - she or she is just there to have fun. Often these are folks who just get to the casino once or twice a year. Sometimes they are players who are brand new to the game. They may be Field bettors or prop bettors. They may be parlayers or power-pressers. Or they may stick to the old Three Point Molly play. When they win they do so because of the math of the game. Standard deviation, always a factor in craps, kicked in and put them in the plus column. They got lucky and were in the right place at the right time.
I’m no stranger to the struggles players go through with the math of the game – and odds are you aren’t either. The fact is, sometimes things that "look" logical - aren't. Take, for example, the thing serious recreational gamblers look for. The “streak” or “trend.” The trend is your friend, right? We’ve all heard it before. However, since craps is a game of independent trials, what happened in the past has no bearing on what happens in the future. Still, when the table heats up one of two things happens. The gambler in us kicks in and we get some money on the layout – or the logic in us kicks in and we stand there and possibly watch the roll of the day pass us by.
Through the years I’ve developed a philosophy regarding trends and the “dice have no memory” thing. That philosophy is simple. The dice have no memory, but they do have a history. And as any student of history will tell you – it has a way of repeating itself.
Back in 32AD there was unrest in the Middle East. A thousand years later, during the Crusades, there was still unrest in the Middle East.
Two hundred years ago the Barbary Coast pirates held this country's feet to the fire, kidnapping American citizens and holding them for ransom while they extorted millions of dollars from the young American government.
Today, the war against radical Islam continues. If I were to make book on it, I’d say a thousand years from now that region of the Middle East will still be in turmoil.
How does this tie back to casino game play? click on "read more" below for the rest of the story.
I always assume that an established trend will continue until the dice prove me wrong. I never bet against the trend. I either bet with the trend, or I don’t bet at all.
Let’s say a player is tossing fours as his dominant number. By dominant number I mean the four is occurring at a non-random rate. Instead of rolling one time in twelve tosses it may be showing every third or fourth toss. In that situation, I will bet the four and will continue to bet it until that trend is over. My first win will pay for the bet and guarantee a profit on that number. I may collect on that bet four or five times before the trend ends – or I may not collect on it at all. But when the seven shows I will only lose a single wager.
Another way to follow the trend it is to convert your Place Bets to Come Bets with odds. Let’s say you’ve detected a trend on the four, eight, and ten. You’ve placed the eight for $30 and bought the four and ten for $25 each. Now make a $10 Come Bet and let the dice decide which number the wager should travel to. The four rolls again. You’ll pay the $1 juice on the buy bet and collect $50. The $10 Come Bet travels to the four. Since it’s a 3, 4, 5X odds game, you drop another $5 on the layout and tell the dealer to bring down the buy bet on the four and use the $30 for odds. You have $40 total on the four, but you collected net $49 on the first hit. You have a $9 guaranteed win locked up on the four, and if the four repeats you’ll win an additional $70.
Let’s assume that a couple of other numbers roll before the four repeats. One Come Bet travels to the nine. It is the first nine to roll during this hand. Should you back it with odds? The Dice Doctor, Sam Grafstein, used to say, “You only back a winning horse.” Using Grafstein's guideline, you would not to take odds until the number “earns” them by repeating.
Let’s assume your third Come Bet traveled to the eight. You collect $35 for the Place Bet on the eight. The house will let you take $50 odds. Take down the $30 Place Bet on the eight, add $20 of your payoff to it and take full odds. You’ll still have a $5 profit for the exchange – we’re netting out the $10 Come Bet - and you’ll be positioned to win $70 on the next hit on the eight.
Where should you go from here? Looking at the layout, you have a $10 Come Bet with $30 odds on the four, a $10 Come Bet with $50 odds on the eight, a $10 Come Bet with no odds on the nine, and a $25 Buy Bet on the ten. At this point, with three Come Bets on the table I would suggest re-converting the Come action to Place and Buy Bets when they repeat. Let’s play it out.
Say the next roll is a nine. I lock up a $10 win and am glad to get it. The four rolls next and pays me $70 and down. That’s $110 total added to my rack because the bet came down as well. At that point I would Buy the four for $50, converting it from a Come Bet with odds back to a Buy Bet. Next the eight rolls and I collect $70 and down. That’s $130 total added to my rack because the bet also came down. My next move is to Place the eight for $60. And since all of my Come Bets have worked off the board I can once again go to the Come and re-convert them. With this style of play it’s easy to move back and forth from Place Bets to Come Bets, and the dice will insure that you follow the trend. Just be sure to limit yourself to two or three Come Bets on the table at a time.
Craps is a game of streaks and trends. Can you accurately predict whether a trend will continue? Of course not. But craps players should always follow the line of least resistance and never argue with the the dice. Find the trend and follow it. It won’t lead you wrong.
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