Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I read an interesting comment on the game on wizard of odds recently where it was stated that if you have a long session playing Pai Gow, given the low volatility of the game, it's really difficult to come out ahead. Mostly it really is a rent a chair, have a drink and probably pay a few dollars for...

I just tried the play on Wincraps and got handed my virtual ass with a bunch of PSOs and PPSOs. It's an interesting kind of play, as many are, but as with any system on the craps table NOTHING is beating the random game.

That's your edge - some kind of influence. People are not beating the random game through bankroll size, money management, MP204, missing numbers, due numbers, "bets off" at any kind of happening around the table or its immediate environs, or whatever other flavour of voodoo is most preval...

Good to see the other side of the pond getting one step closer to 21st century sports betting.

Right place at the right time is the exact phrase I would choose too. It's just luck - bumping into positive variance and if you catch the action on a hot hand you'll remember it a lot more than being in the wrong place at the wrong time which is a much more common result. Of course this "magic...

KC, if you've read any of my comments on this type of don't side play you'll know whats coming :) Any 7 and hardways to hedge your don'ts - how scared are you exactly about your exposure on the come out and on losing a DP once the point is established? In trying to "minismise the amount I could...

Ha, ha Irish mentions flat betting and uses it the same way I would - as in same bet - but don't tell Heavy :) Boring but as a baseline it's going to out-perform almost all other strategies no matter how fancy they are. What about doing 88 inside and just same betting it? Hopefully you are in MS whe...

Yes OK I won't get into discussions about silver, stock markets or whatever which is in no way comparative to a casino market. Anybody should be able to make money in commodities and shares which give you prices on average that appreciate over time. They are not by default a negative expectation game.

My fundamental view in this is easy: build whatever strategy you want from the don'ts but if you start having to hedge your DPs and DCs right from the off, the strategy is instantly flawed.

Come on Jamie just post your system on here. The casino aren't frightened. There is no betting system that can beat a negative expectation game. You are just rearranging win and loss deckchairs on a virtual Titanic-like deck before the good ship Bankroll goes down.

On reading this again, in the context of a $200 win goal, no way would I be betting $60 as a "see ya and goodnight" play. That $60 is 30% of the way to my win goal next time, so I could easily say next time I play I'm looking to be only $140 up, then I have made two win goals in two sessio...

I have often done soyonara bets but for much smaller amounts and to me the soyonara bet is after colour up, otherwise it is too tempting to carry on, win or lose and it is just becomes a bonjour bet instead. For me, it's loose change on some hardways for myself and the crew. Look to be aggressive wi...

22i - for you if you haven't read this.

Ace High concluded SRR to breakeven on his 280 was 6.257 which was same figure as MP204, but he reckoned 280 out performed 204 for a DI with good SRR, though comparison was not apples to apples given different betting amounts and regressions/Presses What was also interesting was that house edge per ...

$4 ACE-DEUCE
$35 4
$45 5
$54 6
$54 8
$45 9
$35 10
$4 YO
$2 MIDNIGHT

2 + 4 + 35 + 45 + 54 + 54 + 45 + 35 + 4 + 2 = 280

It's detailed in comparative strategy analysis thread which H bumped recently.

Good discussion of AH280 v MP204 v Buy 4 & 10

Ahigh's 280 play on myself or a known DI.

It was new to me recently but essentially all numbers covered to win 50 per hit. Two hits and down and off for a happy finish, or alternatively a DIY job if it goes tits up .

Either way you know your fate very quickly.

No topic on progressions involving hops is worth checking out.

I'd rather play 0000 roulette (probably coming to the Venetian soon ) if I wanted to give the house a continual double digit house edge go at my bankroll.

PL definitely. I think a lot of players don't realise that you can play the game without a PL bet. It's an automatic reaction for almost everybody to get that $5 or $10 bet down after each 7 out.

Some great stuff in here. Love the analysis of the MP204 v the AH280, even if not comparing apples with apples. Also the view that SRR of 6.25 is the breakeven point for either of the above. Finally, the fact we should all know, yet some still seek to not believe - if you are playing the random game...

I'm with Irish fully on this. Nobody can use maths to prove any system/strategy/whatever has an edge over the game of craps. The game is based on short pays for each bet, even an odds bet needs an initial bet on which true value isn't paid. No voodoo is over coming these short pays long term. It sim...