SRR and BSR

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wiremonkey
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SRR and BSR

Post by wiremonkey » Tue Feb 16, 2016 1:22 pm

Need a little help here, new to DI and the use of Bonetracker. Would like to know a few things. 1. what would be a good SRR, average, and poor. 1a. how long tracking using BT before youre SRR is Qualified. 2. same Q for the BSR. Really like this program, almost to much info, just need to understand it all. Thanks to the Community for youre patience with a rookie. Wiremonkey

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heavy
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Re: SRR and BSR

Post by heavy » Tue Feb 16, 2016 6:13 pm

If you haven't already done so then I suggest you read the "readme" files that come with BoneTracker when you download it. They will save you a lot of grief.

Next, search the site for any and all articles by Maddog and read them, since BT is his baby. I strongly recommend this one: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=389

That article is about newbie mistakes you should avoid.

Okay, on to your question - and it is more complicated than you will ever believe. Instead of talking in terms of a "good" SRR and a "bad" SRR let's just talk in terms of "random" and "influenced." You'll see why in a moment.

The seven should show up on average one roll in six. This is fundamental to how odds are calculated so you should know this. Free odds on the six and eight pay 6 - 5 because there are six ways to roll a seven and five ways to roll the six (or eight). Going to the outside, there are three ways to roll the four or ten as opposed to six ways to roll a seven - so the odds there are 2 - 1. But the SIX is the number you need to remember. Mathematically, the seven should show up one roll in six.

Now let's assume you track 72 rolls and magically have an SRR of 18. Happens all the time on relatively short books of rolls. And since it was a small book of rolls the results don't really mean much. If you continue with that book of rolls out to 720 tosses then odds are you'll be very close to SIX again. If you take it out to 7200 rolls - even closer. So the larger the book of rolls the closer to statistical norm you'll end up. That's why you need to track thousands of rolls before you proclaim to the public that you have an SRR of 28 - as one of our senior members learned much to his chagrin.

So let's assume that you have a real-world SRR of 7.0. Most of your friends toss five or six and out. You toss seven or eight on average before going out. YOU have an advantage over the game. They do not. How much of an advantage? Well, it depends on the distribution of the numbers you roll, which is why MD includes so many great features in BT. If you toss one less seven every thirty six rolls - where did that extra roll go? What were its results? Did you toss an extra six? An extra ten? A trash number? Inquiring minds want to know that stuff because it will help you decide (down the line) which numbers you might fare better on when placing your bets.

But what if your SRR is "worse" than 6.0, which is random? What if it's 4.2? Ugly, right? Well, not if you are a dark side player. If the average shooter throws one seven every six rolls and his average hand is a little over eight tosses, our "poor" shooter with an SRR of 4.2 looks awful. But to the dark sider he's a plum on the ground. By betting the Don'ts against his hand they can (theoretically) clean up.

Of course, what happens on the practice rig is unlikely to be replicated on a live table with dealers rushing the toss and land mines in the form of chips all over the layout.

Now, there are guys around here who will post ridiculously high SRR's on the forum. I have little faith in the validity of most of such posts. My last book of 740 rolls yielded an SRR of 7.91. That's a 7.91 tossed on MY table at MY house under pretty much perfect conditions. 7.91 is, IMHO, a damned good number.

My BSS for that same book of rolls is 5.92. Random expectation is 4.0 so again, a decent number I'm not ashamed of at all. In my case, it yields a huge advantage on the four, six, and eight - but the ten is disadvantaged.

I will tell you not to get too wrapped up in SRR. It is sort of a "who's dick is biggest" kind of number. I would focus more on primary hits, single pitch hits, and one die off axis hits. You want to minimize double pitch hits and both dice off axis throws.

Once you've accumulated ten books of 720 rolls - look at MD's instructions on how to expand BT so you can insert more than 720 rolls (the formulas are not in there until you make the changes) - and cut and past your entire 7200 rolls into one book - THEN crunch the numbers and look at the results. Once you've done THAT it's time to take a look at the transition pages to see if you can sniff out a better set to use. And that's that.
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wiremonkey
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Re: SRR and BSR

Post by wiremonkey » Tue Feb 16, 2016 11:08 pm

Holy crap, my heads spinning,but i get youre drift. I have a long way to go before i start to see were i really stand. thanks for the info, just printed out the info off BT. thanks

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Re: SRR and BSR

Post by heavy » Wed Feb 17, 2016 12:12 am

Do look back on my last paragraph, where I'd previously typed "ten books of 7200 rolls." That was supposed to say "720 rolls" and I have since corrected it. I can imagine that the thought of 72,000 rolls before attempting to seriously crunch the numbers might be a little daunting for a newcomer. On the flip side, some of us are probably up closer to the 7.2 million mark on practice rolls. Then again - some of us don't have a life . . .
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wiremonkey
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Re: SRR and BSR

Post by wiremonkey » Wed Feb 17, 2016 1:07 am

im guilty on the last comment, 720 is a lot better, trying to roll between 72 and 108 rolls a day, each day just one set, rotate to keep it fresh, 20-30 mins. at a shoot, thanks again for the info. also do you have any suggestions for a bouncy table, or what might be under the felt that gives it the bounce, want to duplicate as close as possible my table conditions at local casino (Hollywood Charles Town West VA.)

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heavy
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Re: SRR and BSR

Post by heavy » Wed Feb 17, 2016 10:18 am

They are probably using a rubber backed layout. You can pick up some inexpensive flannel material and install that under your layout for extra bounce. That's usually sufficient. If not, then you're looking at getting some closed cell foam and putting it under there. Essentially the same stuff they put under the layouts on card tables - but not as thick. Another choice (and very old school) is to put six to eight sheets of newspaper under the layout. It's probably going to take some trial and error to get there.
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Re: SRR and BSR

Post by Bankerdude80 » Sat May 14, 2016 4:38 pm

heavy wrote:Once you've accumulated ten books of 720 rolls - look at MD's instructions on how to expand BT so you can insert more than 720 rolls (the formulas are not in there until you make the changes) - and cut and past your entire 7200 rolls into one book - THEN crunch the numbers and look at the results. Once you've done THAT it's time to take a look at the transition pages to see if you can sniff out a better set to use. And that's that.
Which begs a follow up question. Over what span of time is the accumulation of ten books of 720 rolls considered valued? (Or, best practice).

Typically I can get a book completed in about a month or so. So for me, to collect 7200 rolls that's give or take 10-12 months. Is the data still valid over that length of time? Is there ever a point at which collecting the books becomes moot? (e.g. someone collecting 7200 rolls over a five year period).
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Re: SRR and BSR

Post by heavy » Sat May 14, 2016 4:54 pm

Well, I think serious BoneTrackers should track "rolling" books of 720 rolls. Whenever you accumulate a new book of 720 you drop the oldest 720 from your file and add the new ones. That at least will give you some idea of how your results are evolving over time. Now, I'm of the opinion that just about anyone can get in 36 tosses a day. So you're looking at 3 weeks to build a book of 720. Take a week off then start over. So yeah, 10 months to complete a big book of 7200 rolls. I think that you'll have a very good idea of what sort of results you can expect - at least on your own practice table - at that rate. The key then becomes where to find a live table with your rig's characteristics.

Seems like I go through this every time I go to the casino, even when I'm playing on the same tables. You know the feeling. What worked last week doesn't work this week and you can't seem to zero in on why. Change table positions on that same table and magic happens. Crazy.
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Bankerdude80
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Re: SRR and BSR

Post by Bankerdude80 » Sat May 14, 2016 8:57 pm

heavy wrote:Well, I think serious BoneTrackers should track "rolling" books of 720 rolls. Whenever you accumulate a new book of 720 you drop the oldest 720 from your file and add the new ones. That at least will give you some idea of how your results are evolving over time.
Perfect answer. It is uncanny. On waiting for a response to my question, I had another follow up ready to go which which was, "wouldn't a rolling total of 10 books be the way to go?" A perfect example of how great minds think a like. ;)
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Re: SRR and BSR

Post by heavy » Sun May 15, 2016 12:24 am

Actually, I think that was originally Maddog's idea. Or maybe it was Irish. Anyway, I got it from someone.
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