Turning off or taking down don't bets?

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KCLady
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Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by KCLady » Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:42 pm

Okay, question. I've been running DC simulations using Inside the Casino's live craps games and info from Heavy's post on DT's procedures on lay bets. My question is should you EVER take down a DC bet? What seems to be working best is if I use a reverse 5 count and put out a DC bet, then only leave it up for 3 or 4 inside number hits it stands a pretty good chance of winning even on hot hands. I've been told before not to ever take down a don't bet once it's established but taking it down seems to be a better option to keep losses to a minimum. Also, is turning OFF a DC allowed or does it depend on the casino? Thanks for your input :)
KCLady

thnick
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by thnick » Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:06 pm

I do it all the time. 2 ways. If it is a 6 or 8, I give it three rolls and down OR convert the bet to a place bet. I also take odds on every DC or DP that gets a number no matter what. 6 and 8, I usually lay $12 to $18 in back, 5 and 9 get $15. Not sure why you'd turn off a DC that has moved to a number.

r_ventura_23
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by r_ventura_23 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:13 pm

Dont take ot down.....just place it.

Seattlerick
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by Seattlerick » Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:17 pm

Most casinos will not let you turn off a doc or a do. They make you take it down. Conventinal wisdom ( i.e. Math guys, casino personnel etc. ) will always tell you not to take it down. Ummm, how many players come out ahead of this game using Conventinal wisdom. ???? Also, my personal preference on laying the odds, is to increase my original flat bet. Problem with odds is that if you lose one bet, you must win TWO bets to get back to even. If you lose one flat bet, you only have to win one other flat bet to get back to even. Three rolls for 6 & 8, five rolls for 5 & 9, forever on 4 and Ten. Take me down is the most powerful thing in the game of craps.....your friend....rick

22Inside
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by 22Inside » Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:42 pm

All established Don't bets can be taken down or reduced whenever you like. The casino lets you do this, not out of the goodness of their hearts, because in all cases an established don't bet is in your favor. I never take down don't bets or refuse their action. If I truly don't like my DP/DC traveling to a 6 or 8, I'll toss out a similar sized place bet on the number.

KCLady
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by KCLady » Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:19 pm

Thanks guys. All food for thought and good feedback. I need to get to the casino and test on a live table. I just like the idea of DC since it's more disguised than a DP. We have a couple of die hard Dark Siders here in KC and I've never seen anybody get heat for it, but my friend Bill told me people started talking to him again when he switched from don't to do again. I'm not on the table to make friends tho - I want as much $$$ as I can get :)
KCLady

SHOOTITALL
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by SHOOTITALL » Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:16 pm

KC: LOL on the cold shoulders. Most folks can't get it thru their heads that a don't player is not betting or playing against them. They can't fathom that if both sides are not very close to equal, the game will not work. Let's just say misery loves company. Personally, you need to be able to play both sides to your advantage because sometimes, that table is not trending your perferred way.
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.

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DarthNater
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by DarthNater » Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:12 pm

KC: never take down a don't; if you get squirmy, place the number for a similar amount, that way you get a push, or a slight profit and are poised to possibly transition, good luck, D.N8r
Your lack of faith in The Force disturbs me, Commander.......

ppstowe
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by ppstowe » Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:15 am

I recently played the don'ts with a gentleman that had a unique betting system. He was an old dealer from Vegas and said he played nothing but the don'ts. His strategy was a bit odd though. He would put a min. DP out and then if a 6 or 8 was the point he would double his next DC bet if a 6 or 8 rolled he only let it travel if it took the original point place otherwise never let it travel. Otherwise he only let it travel for the outside numbers. Once it traveled to the outsides he then would take down the 6 or 8 DP or DC and would then play either 1 or 2 other DC's. I couldn't understand why he just didn't place the 6 or the 8 instead. He said he's played like that for years and the dealers I talked to said he was a regular and always walked out with money. That day I was there he had been there for about 4 hours and I didn't see what he started with but he easily had $800 in front of him at that point. Any one else have a feeling on this?

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DarthNater
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by DarthNater » Tue Jun 16, 2020 6:45 pm

PPStowe,
Like we just war gamed in the June Jam, NEVER, EVER, take those don'ts down. I would place both the six and eight versus taking either down.

When you vary the size of the don't flat, Heavy recommends the opposite approach on the dont's, i.e. on a $10 table he starts with a $15 DP, then a $10 DC, so on a PSO, he nets $5. That can be a strong play, as he'll generally get two don'ts totaling $25. Then you can wait, or lay odds, or place the 6 & 8.

You didn't say whether he laid odds or what after the don't traveled to the outside. What I like to do is lay odds on that outside don't and then wait and see what happens with the 6 and/or 8, if either is hit, I wave goodbye to the don't, collect and leave the place bet up. Ditto for when the other goes as that means in a finite set of rolls we've seen 2 sixes and 2 eights - the place bets are still protected by the outside lay and if either the six or eight get hit again, I collect and consider removing the lay odds.

This past weekend before we kicked off the June Jam, the guy next to me was waving off his 6 and 8 DCs, so I bought them from him as once they travel to a number, you have the advantage after dodging the sheriff and the deputy, so you need to exploit it, not decline it.

DN8R
Your lack of faith in The Force disturbs me, Commander.......

thnick
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by thnick » Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:13 pm

How do you do that, Nate? What do you pay the guy for the bet? Just the value of it, I assume? And does the management say anything about it?

acpa
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by acpa » Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:08 pm

I've done that in the past and just paid his bet amount which is what he would get from the casino.

ACPA

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DarthNater
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by DarthNater » Tue Jun 16, 2020 11:40 pm

thnick wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 9:13 pm
How do you do that, Nate? What do you pay the guy for the bet? Just the value of it, I assume? And does the management say anything about it?
Like ACPA said. I do it loudly so everyone hears. In this case the dealer was confused, but the Box got it. As we were both doing DC, the dealer moved it to my side of the don'ts box. It got knocked down on the next toss, (I was too slow with the dealer to get my place bet down) and I bought the next one as well and placed. Generally I toss the "purchasing" chip(s) on the table so the "seller" has to pick it up - so there's no confusion for the eye in the sky. It was obvious that this was pushing everyone too much so I backed off eventually. I had done it four days earlier at Bellagio with green chips and everyone got it there. It depends on my mood and if I want to build up the table, but at $25 or $50, I'm gonna do that as its better than laying, as its survived the sheriff and the deputy, which is your biggest hurdle on the darkside.

DN8R
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irish
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by irish » Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:26 am

I couldn't understand why he just didn't place the 6 or the 8 instead.
If you have a don't bet and then place it as well, do you understand the mathematical implications? Let's look at it from even-steven amounts, and look at the doey-don't. Pass line and DP essentially have the same HA. So, a $5 Pass and a $5 DP is a "wash," right? Nope. In this case, you're simply doubling the amount of money you're holding up against the HA. Same thing when you hedge a don't bet. The only thing sillier than taking down an established DP or DC is to hedge it if you're looking at expected value, which you should be. If keeping losses at a minimum is such a concern that you would hedge a wager that is now at an advantage, then the wager should probably not have been made.
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22Inside
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by 22Inside » Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:06 am

irish wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 10:26 am
I couldn't understand why he just didn't place the 6 or the 8 instead.
If you have a don't bet and then place it as well, do you understand the mathematical implications? Let's look at it from even-steven amounts, and look at the doey-don't. Pass line and DP essentially have the same HA. So, a $5 Pass and a $5 DP is a "wash," right? Nope. In this case, you're simply doubling the amount of money you're holding up against the HA. Same thing when you hedge a don't bet. The only thing sillier than taking down an established DP or DC is to hedge it if you're looking at expected value, which you should be. If keeping losses at a minimum is such a concern that you would hedge a wager that is now at an advantage, then the wager should probably not have been made.
I agree with you to a point, Irish, but I think the comparison with a doey/don't is not completely equivalent. With the Doey/Don't it most certainly is not a wash, as the bets have not traveled yet and you lose both bets if a 12 is tossed. Placing a bet after a DC travels though is different. The DC has already jumped the hurdle of the sheriff and deputy, so now the place bet hedge does become a true wash which either gives you a smaller profit or a smaller loss depending on how the two bets are resolved.

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irish
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by irish » Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:39 am

I only used the doey-don't as an example that people don't understand the math of hedging wagers. They think a $5 pass and a $5 don't pass is a "wash, almost" There is no impact on the HA that each of these two bets has, however, it doubles the amount you're holding up against the HA ($10) instead of $5. The doey-don't hedge is actually worse than choosing one or the other. Would you rather wager $5 times a negative EV of ~1.4% times 1000 decisions, or $10 times a negative EV of ~ 1.4% time 1000 decisions? The fact is, if you made 1000 doey-don't wagers, you'd lose more than if you made 1000 pass wagers alone (or 1000 Don't pass).

The same is true for hedging a don't come, only moreso because your place bet has a much higher HA (and smaller chance of winning) than the DC (usually).
the DC has already jumped the hurdle of the sheriff and deputy
Yep, so, it's expected to win more often than not, and that ratio will depend on which number it moves to.

So, then you introduce a wager NOTat an advantage and additionally, are holding more money up against the HA. The more wagers and resolutions made with the hedge, the more money you will lose, not win. Your $5 DC bet, had an HA of 1.36% and you got past the sheriff/deputy. Let's say it travels to the 5 (I'm choosing the 5 because you can make an equivalent place). You're favored to win at this point @ 3:2. After a decent enough number of decisions, you'll come out ahead. How much would you be "expected" to win after say 100 decisions?

However, Now you add a $5 place bet on the 5. HA is 4% This wager is NOT at an advantage. What is loss to win ratio? How much is this wager "expected" to lose, say after the same 100 decisions?
so now the place bet hedge does become a true wash which either gives you a smaller profit or a smaller loss depending on how the two bets are resolved.
It will eliminate your profit on the don't (the bet at an advantage) with greater frequency than the small income it will produce when the hedge wins, because the hedge is expected to lose with more frequency. It doesn't matter which number you hedge. You have one bet with a positive EV (the don't that's moved) and you introduce another wager, with a higher negative EV, and the one with negative EV will lose more often.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

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irish
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by irish » Thu Jun 18, 2020 8:11 am

P.S. Almost all hedges are bad. As in terrible. But hedging a low HA bet with a high HA bet is a particularly poor decision.

If you are hedging a DP/DC with a yo and or any seven.
If you are hedging a DP/DC that moves to an even number with a hardway bet
If you are hedging PL/Come with an any craps.
"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." Voltaire
"Do right. Do - Do - Do Do right." Cabaret Voltaire

ppstowe
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Re: Turning off or taking down don't bets?

Post by ppstowe » Mon Jun 22, 2020 7:38 am

Darth, When he let them travel to the outside he usually started by betting with single odds and then depending on the roll count would raise the odds. He was placing double odds on roll 3-4 then he would max odds after the 6 count. If he got knocked off he would stop betting unless the roll count got over 12 then he would start DC again. He would only play with a max 2 DC's though. When I was talking a little with him he said that this was his main income and he played 3-4 times a week. He had to only be about 55-60. The other interesting thing though he never touched the dice and said he never would. I know that some from the dark side also never roll because of superstition. I sometimes won't roll when I'm playing on the darkside but mostly because of my position on the table. I don't like throwing from the hook. Either I like SL1/SL2 or straight out. I agree with you about hedging the 6 & 8 though. Don't know why he just wouldn't do that.

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