Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

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Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

Post by heavy » Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:39 pm

Considering how many players prefer to play "flat bets" with no odds on the Don't Pass or Don't Come, I'm always surprised at how FEW players utilize any sort of progression when playing the Don'ts - particularly POSITIVE progressions. I'll give you one that I like, then you guys who USE positive (not negative) progressions can share some of yours (if any such players exist in this group). Mine is a simple 1-3-2-6 progression. It runs like this.

Similar to the Paroli system, 1-3-2-6 is based on the premise that you can win four times in a row.

Your initial bet is 1 unit, the second 3 units, the third 2 units and the fourth 6 units. Let's assume that each unit is $10 on the Don't Pass. After winning that bet you parlay it and add $10 is added to the $20 on the table making the second bet $30. If you win again on the second bet, there will be $60 on the table. Take down $40, locking up a $20 profit and the third bet is now $20. If the third bet wins, you will have $40 on the table to which you add $20 making a total of $60 for the fourth bet. If the fourth bet wins you have a total of $120 on the table - $100 of which is profit. Now take everything down and start the system all over again at $10. THAT assume the best case scenario.

If you lose the first bet, your loss is $10. If you lose at the second level the loss is $20. At the third level, a loss will still leave you a net profit of $20. At the fourth level, a loss leaves you breaking even. Each time you lose, you start all over again at $10. There is no negative progression to speak of.

The attraction of this system is that you risk $20 at a chance of making $100 net profit. This means you can lose five times, and with one win get your money back. To me, it seems almost the perfect Dark Side flat bet progression. Particularly if you implement some basic money management rules regarding chasing losses. Let's face it.
How often do you see four or five consecutive right way decisions? Occasionally, but they're damn rare.

Okay, that's my spin on a flat bet positive progression. What's yours?
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