Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

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heavy
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Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

Post by heavy » Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:39 pm

Considering how many players prefer to play "flat bets" with no odds on the Don't Pass or Don't Come, I'm always surprised at how FEW players utilize any sort of progression when playing the Don'ts - particularly POSITIVE progressions. I'll give you one that I like, then you guys who USE positive (not negative) progressions can share some of yours (if any such players exist in this group). Mine is a simple 1-3-2-6 progression. It runs like this.

Similar to the Paroli system, 1-3-2-6 is based on the premise that you can win four times in a row.

Your initial bet is 1 unit, the second 3 units, the third 2 units and the fourth 6 units. Let's assume that each unit is $10 on the Don't Pass. After winning that bet you parlay it and add $10 is added to the $20 on the table making the second bet $30. If you win again on the second bet, there will be $60 on the table. Take down $40, locking up a $20 profit and the third bet is now $20. If the third bet wins, you will have $40 on the table to which you add $20 making a total of $60 for the fourth bet. If the fourth bet wins you have a total of $120 on the table - $100 of which is profit. Now take everything down and start the system all over again at $10. THAT assume the best case scenario.

If you lose the first bet, your loss is $10. If you lose at the second level the loss is $20. At the third level, a loss will still leave you a net profit of $20. At the fourth level, a loss leaves you breaking even. Each time you lose, you start all over again at $10. There is no negative progression to speak of.

The attraction of this system is that you risk $20 at a chance of making $100 net profit. This means you can lose five times, and with one win get your money back. To me, it seems almost the perfect Dark Side flat bet progression. Particularly if you implement some basic money management rules regarding chasing losses. Let's face it.
How often do you see four or five consecutive right way decisions? Occasionally, but they're damn rare.

Okay, that's my spin on a flat bet positive progression. What's yours?
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Re: Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

Post by heavy » Sun May 31, 2020 1:42 pm

Well, this post generated a ton of responses. I don't suppose we have many don't players hanging around these days - or if we do they're all doing the Don't player thing and standing down at the end of the table with their mouths shut. Oh well, what the heck.

I posted a great article from 2006 over on Heavy's Wrong Way Craps Facebook Group this week that included side by side comparisons of several Don't flat betting strategies. The big winner? A power press positive progression Paroli strategy. But if you want to see it I guess you'll need to go over and join that Facebook Group. Not feeling like cross-posting today.
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Re: Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

Post by Bankerdude80 » Sun May 31, 2020 3:09 pm

During a session at Excalibur, D.N8R and I played what D.N8R called the "Sayonara" bet. It was time to leave, so we decided to play the Don'ts on the other shooters until we lost. We started at $5 and pressed a unit (or something like that) with each shooter. It was decided we would leave once we lost the bet. Turns out, the dice went around the table once or so until we left. It was very entertaining and profitable.
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Re: Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

Post by 22Inside » Sun May 31, 2020 8:27 pm

Bankerdude80 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 3:09 pm
During a session at Excalibur, D.N8R and I played what D.N8R called the "Sayonara" bet. It was time to leave, so we decided to play the Don'ts on the other shooters until we lost. We started at $5 and pressed a unit (or something like that) with each shooter. It was decided we would leave once we lost the bet. Turns out, the dice went around the table once or so until we left. It was very entertaining and profitable.
Nate and I did that same Sayonara bet at the 4 Queens the last time I was out in Vegas. I concur that it was entertaining and profitable.

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Re: Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

Post by slt1966 » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:46 pm

This means you can lose five times, and with one win get your money back.
When you say with one win you get your money back......that win is getting through the whole progression successfully?

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Re: Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

Post by irish » Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:20 pm

"...Who it is that dislikes a man reveals much about the man himself.”

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Re: Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

Post by heavy » Thu Jul 23, 2020 4:09 pm

Here's an oldie from a 2004 newsletter. It's a jazzed up version of one of Professor H's plays.

The Do Not’s Have It
By Steve “Heavy” Haltom

A while back a friend of mine told me about a session where he witnessed fourteen consecutive seven-outs on a table. During that time there were no Come Out naturals. The table was as cold as the Titanic.

My friend, being a conservative Don’t player, runs a conservative flat bet and free odds progression that produces nice wins in such situations. Of course, guys like me tend to let the greed factor get in the way of making the most of those kinds of situations.
i’m always looking for something to aggressively take advantage of such streaks, so after hearing this tale I played around with the numbers and came up with a free-odds progression I've dubbed the Ice Breaker.

The Ice Breaker strategy is relatively simple in that it utilizes just two bets - the Don't Pass and Free Odds. It is designed to be played in casinos that offer a minimum of 20X odds. Here are the basic steps.

1. Always begin with a table-minimum Don't Pass wager.
2. Betting progressions are all free-odds progressions.
3. Do not increase the size of the Don't Pass (flat) wager until you hit table maximum with your free odds bet.
4. The first come-out natural a shooter tosses is always ignored. If the shooter tosses two come out naturals - sit out the rest of this shooter's hand. Don't let the same shooter beat you three times on the come-out.
5. On any loss, regardless of what level you’ve reached, regress to the first bet level and start the progression over.
6. Minimum session bankroll requirement is $1200 based on a $5-20X odds game.
7. You MUST keep track of exactly where you stand in the progression as well as in the win/loss column at all times.
8. You MUST walk if you lose 50% of your session bankroll.

Since we don't know what numbers we're laying odds against, we can't really plug dollars into the calculation. However, you can assume that the first Don't Pass bet is a table minimum $5 wager. Here's what the Casino Busters progression would look like based on the Professor's fourteen consecutive seven-outs:

Initial Bet - $5 Don't Pass

First bet - $5 Don't Pass plus 3X odds
Second bet - press to 6X odds
Third bet - same bet at 6X odds
Fourth bet - press to 10X odds
Fifth bet - press to 15X odds
Sixth bet - same bet - 15X odds
Seventh bet - press to at 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $10

Eighth bet - $10 Don't Pass plus 15X odds
Ninth bet - press to 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $15

Tenth bet - $15 Don't Pass plus 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $20

Eleventh bet - $20 Don't Pass plus 20X odds
Twelfth bet - same bet at 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $25

Thirteenth bet - $25 Don't Pass plus 20X odds

Increase Don't Pass bet to $35
Fourteenth bet - $35 Don't Pass plus 20X odds

Should you reach the fourteenth bet and continue to win, flat bets with max odds would increase to $50, same bet, $75, same bet, $100, same bet, $125, same bet. Even with my action driven mentality I'd probably stop with a $100 flat bet and $2000 odds. If I wanted more action I'd likely add a Don't Come wager to the mix and run a second progression. On the other hand, if at any time you feel like you've had enough and your luck is running out - take down your free odds bet, wait for a decision on the flat bet, then color up and head out. Quitting when you are ahead is the only sure way to guarantee a win.
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Re: Wrong Way Flat Bet Progressions - What's Yours?

Post by skasower » Thu Jul 23, 2020 6:08 pm

Thanks for posting this "oldie" Heavy. I am excited to try it out....someday.
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