Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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crapsjourney
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Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by crapsjourney » Sun Sep 24, 2017 3:47 pm

Hi folks

Just wondering if any of you dark side players use a hardway hedge to cover your dont’s when there is an even point set?

I’ve been toying with this concept in my computer simulations.

I would consider myself a prop bet virgin so have yet to introduce this in live play.

Any advice for me?
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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by heavy » Sun Sep 24, 2017 5:58 pm

This is one of the hedges that John Patrick has recommended for years. Personally, it's never really worked out for me. I recall having a $400 Lay on the four with a $50 hard four hedge and watching the 3-1 show up.
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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by mssthis1 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:26 am

I never hedge dark side action. I prefer to spread out the risk over more numbers using lay bets, the 5 or 9 the vast majority of the time. If a shooter is repeating say the 9, I'll lay the 5.

I haven't made a DP or DC bet in months. Since most people try to toss sevens on the comeout I only make lay bets now, just in case they succeed. That and I don't like the 4 or 10. It takes 2 or3 wins to overcome one loss if you get picked off depending on how the sevens fall and the vig if you're laying. .

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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by HornHighJoe » Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:25 am

Mathematically, don't hedge with a hardway. You don't need a simulation to tell you that. That is with a random roller.

With a DI and they are setting the hardway or a 2V/3V, sure, it may be worth the risk. Assuming they are proficient enough to stay on axis, without too many single pitch with the V-sets.
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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by London Shooter » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:04 pm

If you are playing don'ts on a DI you'll be hoping they aren't proficient at anything :)

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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by SHOOTITALL » Mon Sep 25, 2017 2:32 pm

My thinking is that a hedge on a HW would weaken an already strong bet. 2 or 4:1 against you with the addition of forking over the bet.
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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by DarthNater » Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:39 pm

It depends - I try not to have to many ironfast rules - other than knock me down twice and I off this shooter. Occasionally I'll hedge the odds that I lay on the 4 or 10. I know it trims profits, so I use a few triggers that I ponder - but don't always act upon. First trigger - am I seeing hardways --- yeah, I know there's no correlation, but I usually see hardways in bunches - then a partial hedge. Or 2nd - am I sensing a shift in the Force - could the table be reversing trend - then a partial hedge. Third did the shooter set the point with a hardway - then a partial hedge. Otherwise, I just leave them be, and try to win with SO.

However when I start seeing these triggers, I might also opt to retreat; after all with the darkside - odds saved today are tomorrow's weapons of destruction. Of course my way of retreating is taking down the odds and placing the number, so at worse cancel out or at best net a couple of bucks. This way of thinking aligns with my goal of using the darkside to tread water, especially if I'm in my preferred shooting position. If I'm out of position, I'm likely investing with my don'ts and usually betting to follow a trend. Then I'm not hedging, and absent of triggers may actually press the laid odds.

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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by London Shooter » Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:20 am

I think DN gives a good explanation of a valid alternative. If you get a bit nervous about your DP, then simply save your odds and/or lay the point.

A traveled DP is one of the best bets you can get in craps - hedging it with one of the worst via a hardways (worst in terms of HA anyway) does not strike me as a smart play.

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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by crapsjourney » Wed Sep 27, 2017 5:33 am

Thank you all for your insights. Much appreciated.
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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by Moe Bettor » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:56 am

I don't like hedges either, yet I will often go a $15 DC with a dollar yo. I figure a dollar..what the hell. But then again..I haven't had too many yo's appear when I make my play. I don't play DPs and prefer the DC and just laying against a number with table conditions in mind. Like DN a lot of play is simply based on what is going on. In other words no play
before the charting and then I have plans I put into action accordingly. I think I'm in love with lost number play.

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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by DarthNater » Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:50 pm

I like "lost number" play but I don't like to make Lay bets, would rather bet DC and bet it's not going to hit a second time. One of my favorite plays, I call it "Sleeping with the Dark Sister" is placing the opposite of the point, i.e. if my DP is on the point of nine, I place the five.

Something else, I've been toying with, I call the "Hot Bro" -- one of the six numbers seems to show up very frequently between seven-outs, so if my DC goes to that number, I'll place it with double the DC, then bet another DC. Only problem with this is if you see a second Hot Bro - then you ain't at a darkside table any more, D.N8r
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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by DarthNater » Wed May 05, 2021 1:39 pm

Started thinking about hardway hedges on lay bets, specifically $100 No Four or No Ten; and found this thread... bump time

So who hedges their lay bets and what are your triggers?

Happy hunting, DN8R
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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by Big O » Wed May 05, 2021 4:56 pm

I dont like to hedge but sometimes i get skuuurd, which is different than scared. I dont have any hard and fast triggers to take down or hedge a lay like i do to make the lay in the first place. One scenario, i decide the hand is coming to an end, the shooter hits his point so i lay the 10 on the comeout. He sets another point but doesnt 7out right away. He makes a few tosses and hits the new point. Now im starting to consider the hedge. He sets his next point as the 4 and sets it hard i am probably going to hedge or come down for a few rolls
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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by House of Orange » Wed May 05, 2021 9:19 pm

If you hedge the 6/8 with a Hardway, you increase your win % to over 63%, better than laying the 5/9 at 60% win rate! Food for thought.

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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by DarthNater » Thu May 06, 2021 11:55 am

House of Orange wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 9:19 pm
If you hedge the 6/8 with a Hardway, you increase your win % to over 63%, better than laying the 5/9 at 60% win rate! Food for thought.
Interesting, can you lay out the math on that for everyone?

Thanks, DN8R
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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by House of Orange » Thu May 06, 2021 1:12 pm

Pretty simple. 6 chances to win, 5 to lose. Bet the hardway, depending on the over insurance, 7 chances to win, 4 to lose. Example $15 Don't pass moves to 8. $18 lay. With a $5 hardway you win $12 or $25. 63.67% chance, 7/11. Lose $38 with a soft 8.

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Re: Don’t Pass with hardway hedge

Post by Cap-n_Lou » Fri May 07, 2021 10:01 pm

I understand it’s not brutally rational, but if I am playing the don’t at, say, $25, with 2x or more odds laid, I will hedge a hardway for $5 at least. Takes the sting out of losing a pretty big bet. Even giving up some edge to the house, I figure it allows me to stay in the game and keep riding the don’t, which will eventually come around. If I’ve got one or more DCs to go with the line bet, however, I won’t hedge against all of them. Too expensive at that point for me.

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