A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

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eastcoast
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by eastcoast » Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:15 pm

Strato you can experiment with both sides with a 2 dollar minimum !! I forgot to add in the post above that this play so far has been practice only, I will be headed to The Hard Rock this weekend to see how both sides shake out in real time.....another note....I tried just Player only.....ho hum....seems Banker works better.....probably just the way the practice shoes played out. Hey crapsjourney thanks for your contribution to this thread also!!

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:57 pm

As always...Thanks to crapsjourney, eastcoast and ALL for your contributions of information and experience! IMO, it makes this a great learning venue and I KNOW my game/Profit is getting better because of it.
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:13 am

"Target Betting" the Banker AND Player Statistics

I recently played complete shoes on my Baccarat Buster II testing software, with additionally tossing in a few shoes I either played or observed in the casino live, for a grand total of 50 shoes. It was grueling because I played about 7-12 shoes a day. Sometimes, that was even after coming home from a 2-3 hour day at the casino. All in all, I was SUPER dedicated to getting some statistics on straight “Target Betting” BOTH sides of the fence, continuously from the beginning to end of every shoe encountered.

In other words, EVERY TIME a Banker or Player run switched/reversed sides for a NEW run, I bet that next/second possible “back to back” “Target Betting” opportunity.
Example:
BBB
PPPPP
BB
P
BBB
PPP
B
PP
1ST run is 3 Bankers, bet the second possible “back to back” “Target Betting” opportunity for a Win.
2nd run is 5 Players, bet the second possible “back to back” “Target Betting” opportunity for a Win.
3rd run is 2 Bankers, bet the second possible “back to back” “Target Betting” opportunity for a Win.
4th run is 1 Player, bet the second possible “back to back” “Target Betting” opportunity for a LOSS.
5th run is 3 Bankers, move up to your SECOND LEVEL progression amount and bet the second possible “back to back” “Target Betting” opportunity for a Win.
6th run is 3 Players, back to your FIRST LEVEL progression Base Bet and bet the second possible “back to back” “Target Betting” opportunity for a Win.
7th run is 1 Banker, bet the second possible “back to back” “Target Betting” opportunity for a LOSS.
8th run is 2 Players, move up to your SECOND LEVEL progression amount and bet the second possible “back to back” “Target Betting” opportunity for a Win.

The only other thing to consider in my testing here is that I don’t, and didn't in this testing, bet after a Tie. I wait to see what the next decision will be after that Tie, THEN I bet accordingly.

I utilized my usual betting amount progression of $6 Base Bet/$14/$30/$64 w/$26 Recovery mode bet if needed.

RESULTS
Strangely enough, in 50 shoes, I never once had to utilize Recovery mode. I found this odd because in 50 shoes, I did not encounter a BPBPB 4 Level loss result. You KNOW we have ALL seen at least BPBPB and worse at times in a shoe before getting a “Target Betting” Win!!! I suppose I was just VERY fortunate in these 50 shoes!!! You tell me???

I’m going to accept my statistic findings anyways for statistics sake but, everyone please realize, it is HIGHLY likely that we will incur some shoes that go Recovery mode on us out of every 50 shoes. We ARE realists correct? This is NOT to say that if we did need Recovery mode, that we would not still make a profit on that shoe.

OK, 50% of the shoes were Player dominant, 50% were Banker dominant

Besides the fact that there was no Recovery mode bets needed, 50% of the shoes went to at least a Level 3 progression bet and the other 50% of the shoes went to Level 4 progression bet. Naturally, this happened at least once in the shoe and a few times more (I did not keep track of the individual different bet Level occurrences). I just wanted to know what the maximum bet Level amount was that would have been needed in a shoe. Most Wins were at the Base Bet or second level.

100% of ALL shoes resulted in Wins! Average Win Profit per shoe was $121.75. $112 was the lowest Profit and $137 was the highest Profit. Not bad for $6 bets the vast majority of the time and staying slightly above $100 Profit per shoe. I DID utilize a Banker 5% commission charge in the Profits.

Player or Banker single results averaged 10 times in the shoe and “Target Betting” Win results averaged 18.25. That’s 65% Wins, 35% Losses or basically 2:1 Win/Loss rate. Not bad at ALL IMO.

For what it’s worth, Ties averaged about 7 per shoe (right on usual average) with Highs of 14 each and Lows of just 1 each.

Who knows? Maybe this may be the best way to play all our shoes? It didn’t seem to matter whether the shoe was Banker or Player dominant. Additionally, the amount of Ties per shoe seemed to have no effect. If anything, my NOT betting after a Tie seemed to be an actual advantage and kept me from higher bet levels overall. The 2:1 ratio was VERY tight in NOT varying too much between shoes. I thought this was a KEY statistic! That 65%-35% per shoe of single results to “Target Betting” Win results was there on 48 of the 50 shoes…solid!

Hey…maybe this solves the which side should I bet on syndrome? It all comes down to ONE thing basically, right? Will you achieve a high ratio of “back to back” “Target Betting” Wins in the shoe or not?

Thoughts?
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by KrapsNovice » Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:47 am

"Strangely enough, in 50 shoes, I never once had to utilize Recovery mode. I found this odd because in 50 shoes, I did not encounter a BPBPB 4 Level loss result. You KNOW we have ALL seen at least BPBPB and worse at times in a shoe before getting a “Target Betting” Win!!! I suppose I was just VERY fortunate in these 50 shoes!!! You tell me???"

Michael, I think these shoes dodged the chops. Usually when I have tested 100 shoes I know if something is a dud but there have been a couple instances a system beat zumma for a little less than 100 shoes but at 200 or more shoes it lost! Do not get me wrong I do not doubt your results (your results may be golden) I just think it should have hit recovery a couple times. There are instances that flukes happen (trust me I have tested it and seen it). I think reaching 100 shoes will give a better picture. If I may ask, did you put in a trigger that after two loses you wait for the game to get back to a win or winning way before you rebet?

The other day there were prob 30 tables going at my local 2 tables had bpbpbpbp and pbpbpbpbpb. The chops runs we're 8 X's and 10 X's. As usual you have provoked thought and I am thankful for your insightful posts.

Take care, KN

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stratocasterman
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:06 am

KrapsNovice wrote:
Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:47 am
Michael, I think these shoes dodged the chops. Usually when I have tested 100 shoes I know if something is a dud but there have been a couple instances a system beat zumma for a little less than 100 shoes but at 200 or more shoes it lost! Do not get me wrong I do not doubt your results (your results may be golden) I just think it should have hit recovery a couple times. There are instances that flukes happen (trust me I have tested it and seen it). I think reaching 100 shoes will give a better picture. If I may ask, did you put in a trigger that after two loses you wait for the game to get back to a win or winning way before you rebet?

The other day there were prob 30 tables going at my local 2 tables had bpbpbpbp and pbpbpbpbpb. The chops runs we're 8 X's and 10 X's. As usual you have provoked thought and I am thankful for your insightful posts.

Take care, KN
KN...TOTALLY agree!

If I am in a shoe that remotely starts that crap...I AM OUTTA THERE!

I have now gotten to the point that I walk around and search for shoes that have multiple, back to back runs of at least 3, sometimes 2 in the runs. I play the Banker "Target Bet" in these shoes and am very successful. It is my main MO anymore. I think I will now try to play both sides until I lose one...then move on to the next.

As I did extremely well the other day just betting Banker, I walked back by those several shoes and looked at the scenario after my Winning Banker bet. If I had stayed and played both sides, I would have KILLED it on a couple of tables. In some of those cases, I bet again, later, in the same shoe I had Won at earlier and Won another single bet.

There were NO singles at ALL in two of those shoes, AFTER I had noticed the pattern and went to get a bet on the table. The "Target Betting" opportunities numbered about 12-15 in each shoe. The other shoes were OK for a couple more runs before they got singles crazy...BPBPBP.

Now granted that is hindsight but, that would had been between 24-30 Wins that followed the same pattern. When I notice a pattern of singles in a shoe, it usually STAYS that way and I just blow that shoe off.

Long story short...finding shoes early that are in the back to back run mode are PRIME candidates for playing both sides! Now just walking up to any shoe and playing both sides for the entire shoe is likely to be risky. YES, my sampling of test shoes was VERY gracious indeed! HAHAHAHA!

Thanks KN
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by KrapsNovice » Thu Feb 07, 2019 9:58 pm

I used to hate it when I looked at the boards only to see that I would have made X amount more. Now, I usually take it in stride. There have been times when I would have lost if I stayed longer. Good job, Michael feeling out the shoes and placing those bets when you felt you had the best of it. If you roam from table to table or sit down for that matter searching out opportunities you need to have a clear mind and remain focused. I cannot tell you how many times I have lost when I am in the wrong frame of mind or just had a bad day.

Example, My friend called me this afternoon wanting to meet at the casino, I bailed from work early as I had a slow day anyways being that I worked my ass off the past few days and met up with him at Rivers Casino. I rarely play when I hit the casino with him because my bankroll cannot withstand the high limit room. As soon as I saw him he was venting about work, wife upset him etc. I listened for a while then told him why don't we go eat something first so you can chill a little before you hit the tables. He would not listen, I watched him lose betting loosely chasing his loses by doubling down and cussing w/ every lost wager. It upset me watching this crap he is my childhood friend. Once he requested another marker I pulled him to the side forcefully, it took him by surprise and told him in a firm voice look I am 90% certain you will lose, you are playing like a lunatic. Let's f'n leave if you do not come with I am bailing! I know a few people looked over our way at that point. Luckily he came to his senses we got a bite to eat and then we hit the baccarat table target betting. I made 290.00 he made 1k. Did he recoup his loses, hell no, but he was in a better mood laughing it up etc... I know this was long winded and off topic and I am being captain obvious here but the mental aspect is important. It's great to hear that you have the mental aspect and chose your opportunities wisely. Keep it going, Brother!

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by eastcoast » Thu Feb 07, 2019 10:35 pm

that was a great statistical report strato, especially with the 65% 35%......in your last post, last paragraph, " finding shoes early that are in back to back run mode are PRIME candidates for playing both sides!" excellent point because the first 1/3 of the shoe may be chop, and, as KrapsNovice said, which dovetails somewhat in that statement....i would agree to wait for a back to back win before progressing on...B or P....whichever started pairing after the chop....(a virtual win) Thanks again for putting in the time for the stats!

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:52 pm

Are you still playing Baccarat? How’s “Target Betting” going for you, are you still using some form of it? How’s your Profits been doing if so? What’s your Win/Loss % rate guesstimate? Are you still tweaking your strategy/bet progression? What IS your betting progression? Have you settled in to a particular way of play/Winning pattern?

Well, you KNOW I have! I am now 20 Wins with 1 Loss (which I DID recover the next time out) for a total of $4000 Profit. Some Wins are small, some average and a few big. Is that an outstanding amount? Of course not! I do think an average of $200 per day on basically a $6 Base bet Grand Martingale may be though, IMO. I rarely expose more than $300 of BR each day out and generally play within $200. That’s a 67-100% ROI per day!

Showoff??? Well, not really. Facts are facts, check my TRs. I just want to show anyone, what can happen with a strong game plan and betting strategy (Recovery Mode included). I want/hope that you can replicate my results, no matter what your BR is. The other big factor is all the input I get from all of you! When you give me input, it keeps provoking my thoughts. I continuously keep looking at stats, betting amounts, game play and strategy. I keep refining my game and continue Winning. That’s the beauty of it all. I also love to hear about YOUR Winning results!

I continuously play Baccarat from 4 different elements/venues. Live casino play, my Baccarat Buster II Baccarat strategy testing software, Dragon Ace Casino Baccarat (VERY good Android app, Online) and Wizard of Odds website. Why? The reason I do this is because, I guess you could say that, I am passionate about the “Target Betting” strategy. I decided that if I exercised the exact same strategy in NUMEROUS different venues/conditions, this should prove that the strategy DOES work correct?

I figured that it could be just “dumba$$” luck, constantly Winning in the casino. THAT, in itself could come crashing down at any time; same thing for the other venues/conditions! BUT, it is NOT! No matter what or where I play, I Win period.

Yes, I have had a FEW session losses overall with all these different methods but, Recovery mode saves the day EVERYTIME! Recovery Mode is nothing more than BR, think about it. If well bankrolled, we always stand the opportunity to regain our Winning ways. It may take some doings but, I’ve got it all back and more every time. From what I hear, from most all of you, you do the same with Recovery mode. If bankrolled properly, we overcome right?

Do you think this further proves that “Target Betting”, with a preferred progression and properly bankrolled, DOES positively work?

As always…

Thoughts?
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by gerard711 » Fri May 31, 2019 4:27 am

Can you provide a list of rules including the target betting progression strategy , do you wait for 2+ on each side,
P B P
P B * trigger
B
I'm thinking that's what I read

G711

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by gerard711 » Fri May 31, 2019 4:29 am

Sorry
P B B
P B. *
P

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by crapsjourney » Fri May 31, 2019 10:10 am

I did a video of it in my podcast episode 58 and Michael SCM did detail it in this thread.
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:01 am

Here's Aaron's great Youtube video...Thanks Aaron!
https://youtu.be/9CiaHTOLkbk

G711..." do you wait for 2+ on each side?"
NO, I do not wait for 2+

My version of the "Target Bet" is waiting for either a Player or Banker results run to end, THEN bet the possible "second" occurrence to happen. I bet Banker 99% of the time.Thus...my bets are always placed on the possible second occurrence of an actual Winning Banker result.

Keeping things simple and playing at the lower Minimum bet, stadium seating games (50Pesos=$1), my Grand Martingale progression is 300/700/1500/3200P or $6/14/30/64. If I lose 4 consecutive bets, I go into what we call our "Recovery Mode" betting strategy. That bet amount varies for me but, is 2500P or $50. I bet this amount until I have "recovered" current losses and am back to a positive Bankroll amount. That could be Zero/Even or a full recovery of the amount of bets I have lost. Doesn't matter...get back in the BLACK!

A recent rise of the actual Baccarat tables Minimum bet (actually doubled!) to 2000P or $40 has me playing a progression of 2000/5000/11000/2400, 12,500 Recovery or $40/100/220/480 250 Recovery. It's gotten a bit steep for my blood so I have varied these amounts back and forth. It limits my ROI% but, at least I still seem to come out at the same Winnings per hour figure of just north of 5000P or $100 per hour.

Actually, I don't really feel the need to play at the tables anymore because, I'm not about to risk that much BR for the potential outcome. I can easily sit at the stadium seating and rarely ever get more than $50-100 down and bounce back with a $100 Win in an hour's time. In fact, I rarely go into Recovery mode at all any more. I pick my shoes very carefully and get out BEFORE Recovery has to happen. I find a different shoe, the Wins come back and all is right with the whole "Target Betting" strategy.

And, as my buddy Eastcoast states, usually if you can get 3-4 Wins in the first 25-33% of the shoe, you are highly likely to Win that shoe. The reverse of that seems to hold true as well. If you are experiencing a loss in a shoe on the front end, it is not very likely you will come out with any overall Winnings.

I only say that about "Target Betting" in Baccarat though. Craps is totally different to me. I can shoot and lose a few hands, THEN bounce back with a great 20-30 roll plus hand that makes it all good again. Baccarat shoes are a very different animal we know.

Like Heavy always says, "Get In, Get Up and Get Gone!" That goes for losing as well. Why sit in a losing shoe? Get GONE! There are tons of other shoes to play.

Example Shoe Play:
BPBPBBBPPPBBPBBB

Banker Wins, Bet the second possible occurrence of the Banker...Player Wins, lose 300
Wait for the next Banker Win
Banker Wins, Bet the second possible occurrence of the Banker...Player Wins, lose 700
Wait for the next Banker Win
Banker Wins, Bet the second possible occurrence of the Banker...Banker Wins, Win 1500, up 500
Banker Wins...great, no big deal to me. Some will continue to bet the streak, not me. Made my money back and have a positive Win going!
Player Wins three straight...great, no big deal to me. I have toyed lately with betting both sides. Yea, it works but, Banker brings home my bacon.
Banker Wins, Bet the second possible occurrence of the Banker...Banker Wins, Win 300 (back to basic bet), up 800
Player Wins...whatever, just waiting for Mr. Banker! Glad I didn't give it away by continuing to bet and lose. Would be FARTHER into the progression!!
Banker Wins, Bet the second possible occurrence of the Banker...Banker Wins, Win 300, up 1100

I only lost twice consecutively but, Won three times. I was down $20 and now I'm up $22 with very little risk and poised to continue this pattern with this shoe. Yes, it could change BUT, I am watching for that. Cool thing about the stadium seating I also like is that there are 2-3 different shoes going at once! I can bounce back and forth if I like! Sweet!

My philosophy and what I have observed over hundreds and hundreds of shoes is this...GET THE WIN! When you do, KEEP IT! Why bet endlessly?

Yea it's great if the run continues BUT, it will end and end with a loss. You KNOW the occurrences statistics! More 1s than 2s, more 2s than 3s...etc..

Getting the Win puts you back to your base bet and THAT'S where I want to be. That gives me FOUR shots in a row to Win before I must go Recovery! Like I said, I rarely go into Recovery mode and you now know why! Pick your seemingly "perfect" opportunity bet and you will Win more often than not. It's NOT rocket science. I'd rather have four bullets in my gun rather than 1 or two left, EVERY time.

Not Winning enough money you say? Just increase/adjust your betting progression! No need to go bat-shit betting crazy on every hand. Pick your spot and Win.

Do you really think betting the correct strategy is going to produce losses very much? Of course not! I have tons of statistics of real data played shoes. They are all here in one form or another in this thread. IMO, and my data, has shown that selectively betting the possible result of a second Mr. Banker Wins.

Yes you Player side people! I believe you too! You can still bet Player in a Banker dominated shoe and STILL Win. As many shoes are Player dominant as Banker too! The data has proven it over and over again.

Greatest thing about it all...you just can't argue the factual data very much. Sure, I may be a wiz at picking the right shoes to play or the ones to run far away from. BUT, that is experience IMO! I have no crystal ball or ESP. I'm as smart or ignorant as the next person and I KNOW now how and where I can beat this game of Baccarat.

The fact remains that way too many people, here in this Forum, are silently going out and playing their very own variant of the "Target Bet" and consistently Winning. My overall guess is that 90% of you are in the black (with me) with your Baccarat BR playing this way. I salute you.

I just love to see people beat the casino! Continue on with your very own Winning variant...
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Tgold » Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:07 am

Hi Stratocasterman. Hope all is well for you /it looks like your bac winning streak is still going strong. I always enjoy your posts as well as the comments from everyone.

Though I don't play the Target Betting method , (due mostly to not being a fan of negpro), I do see the merit of the TargBetting method/ have skimmed through most of your posts on the topic so I have a basic understanding. I like the discipline you demonstrate as well as "knowing what your method needs to win/ then youre patient and discriminating before jumping into wagering mode.

Above Stratcasterman states: ".....finding shoes early that are in the back to back run mode are PRIME candidates for playing both sides! Now just walking up to any shoe and playing both sides for the entire shoe is likely to be risky. "
I agree 100% in that we need to first SEE our desired outcomes prior to jumping into the shoe instead of doing what many players do: start wagering and hoping the shoe will change to fit our desired outcomes with a predetermined rigid system. I view it as we should be in "anticipatory mode" and watching, waiting, and ready to pounce, so that we start wagering on our desired run on hand 1or 2 vs say hand 3or4. As we all agree most runs (of any kind (1/1, 1/2, 1/3, 2/2,2/3...), seldom last longer than 6-7iers and same-side streaks are even less.
My Motto: "If we didn't go to the wedding then why attend the funeral", or simply: If we didnt wager on hands 1 or 2 then why be out there pumping/pressing at wager 6-7 only to see it die/the casino wins our largest wager.

Re: Playing both sides: I love the presentments showing favor to both P and B. I mostly do a PosPro wagering style and when the recent side counts are comparable AND "both" sides are doing what I need (regardless if 1 to 2s,1-1 chop, 2-2 chop, streaks or whatever), I then prefer riding both sides because on any Pospro the latter hits on a run can mean huge monies going to our rack. IMO we must view the shoe as unfolding in 3-4 limited sections and these individual sections are not very long(and tend to change to something different on the very next section,"e.g., same-side runs to chops..etc"), so with a Pospro (as well as Negpro like Target Betting), we must be on these runs early, plus wager both sides when warranted , or we are giving up 1/3 to 1/2 our wins by staying on one side only, because when our current wager-favoring streak is finished it is used (not necessarily used up), and may or may not return again. I find more favorable results to let the shoe dictate to us/not the other way around.

Stratman posted above: "....Yes you Player side people! I believe you too! You can still bet Player in a Banker dominated shoe and STILL Win. As many shoes are Player dominant as Banker too! The data has proven it over and over again..."

Exactly--we all know the extensive statistical data telling everyone to ONLY wager B, and though I agree with the slight statistical B favor, and if I was required to wager every hand on every shoe and forced to use a mechanical method and had to choose only one side to wagering the rest of my life , then yes I would choose B.
However, imo a more proficient methodology is: We must approach every single shoe with a neutral mindset and understand we are not wagering every single hand in thousands of shoes. Each shoe is a FINITE preordered set of variables, unrelated to previous or next shoe, and in this very minute/limited set we will see almost half of the shoes with P-side winning/ P-dominant outcomes(and sometimes huge variance favoring the P wager "not only in individ sections but the whole shoe").

Back to the appoint above: If one is utilizing a static system we must wait til we SEE exactly what our wagering method needs(be it 3iers, 1-1chop,2-2s , B1 to B2..etc) OR adapt our wagering to what the shoe is "currently" presenting, OR as Stratocasterman and Eastcoast suggest above: leave that shoe or session and find a better one. We don't need to win every shoe to win our session or trip.

Thanks everyone for all the posts above.

All the best,
Tgold

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:52 pm

Thanks Tgold!

I always appreciate your thoughtful insights and surely like your thinking. I really believe all the insight presented here in the Forum makes us think and examine our betting motives much better.

Every side of the fence seems to come to light.

That which we could never see, is shown by others!
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by BobbyBones » Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:36 pm

Greetings Strat and fellow Baccarat Enthusiasts
Have u ever considered the opposite and wagering that it will chop instead of repeat.
Perhaps a two step progression.

Bones
The Trend Will End

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by BobbyBones » Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:13 pm

This shoe was a tad beyond half way thru when I arrived and $25. 4 step progression a tad scary.
Went to 4th level once and won but I cheaped out. Quickly up $125 so I sat and watched as next several bets won ugh 😑
Surely it can’t be this easy all the time but I’ll let u know

https://i.loli.net/2019/09/18/2P6RUwFBWyATcaD.jpg
The Trend Will End

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:21 am

BobbyBones wrote:
Mon Sep 16, 2019 3:36 pm
Greetings Strat and fellow Baccarat Enthusiasts
Have u ever considered the opposite and wagering that it will chop instead of repeat.
Perhaps a two step progression.

Bones
Absolutely but, I do not seek out chop type shoes. All the data I have collected points to shoes eventually going into some form of a multiple run scenario.

What I will say is when I DO see a chopping shoe, I do like to watch it some and see where it goes. Usually, within a shoe, the chop will stop and multiple runs will result. THAT is what I look for!

I do remember a shoe, way back before I started playing the "Target Bet". It started out BPB. Everyone at the table would look at each other wondering what to bet next. Funny, I decided to just bet opposites or the chop until it beat me. So, I would be the first person to bet (I knew what my bet was going to be) and everyone would just follow suit. :lol: I just let the dude at the other end of the table squeeze the cards every hand since we were winning (although I am NOT superstitious). I believe there were 23 or 24 chops before a double hit. That was like 20 Wins in a row for me before the loss on the double. Everyone just got up from the table and walked with their cash. In the tens of thousands of shoes witnessed, I've only ever seen that a couple times since then.

I loved the shoe you posted. A classic example of how Player can dominate overall but, I would have won handily on Banker. Banker only went to the third level once. Incidentally, should one have decided to "Target Bet" Banker AND Player in that shoe alternatively, they would have cleaned up! I noticed Player only went to the third level once as well.

That was a good shoe!

Thanks for the input!
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BobbyBones
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Joined: Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:37 pm

Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by BobbyBones » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:45 am

Would u play this shoe or just move on?
Do u wait before jumping in? Initially betting on this shoe would have hurt.
(I have a few more pics of this shoe as it progressed)
<img src="https://i.loli.net/2019/09/18/fvUushobxgtYFjq.jpg"
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stratocasterman
Posts: 717
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:55 pm
Location: Manila, Philippines
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:14 am

BobbyBones wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:45 am
Would u play this shoe or just move on?
Do u wait before jumping in? Initially betting on this shoe would have hurt.
(I have a few more pics of this shoe as it progressed)
<img src="https://i.loli.net/2019/09/18/fvUushobxgtYFjq.jpg"
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What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"

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stratocasterman
Posts: 717
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:55 pm
Location: Manila, Philippines
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Thu Sep 19, 2019 10:28 am

BobbyBones wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:45 am
Do u wait before jumping in?
Yes, I always size up a shoe and look for certain indicators like, back to back P&B runs. Shoes that show very little to me in the way of these runs are better left alone until they emerge further..

Other things I tend to notice is that choppy shoes tend to potentially stretch you out more into a third and fourth level progression. None of us likes that. I don't mind getting beat once in the middle of back to back runs. The reason is that I usually Win at the very next or second level bet.

Today was a good example (I did post a Trip Report too). Here was a shoe best I can remember:

BBBPPPPBBPPPPBBBPPPPPBPPPBBB

I walked up right as the fourth Banker run had begun BUT, I missed getting a bet down. Well, as you can see, that turned out to my advantage because the fourth Player run started and I would have lost the bet. Only ONE Banker in that run right?. The second Banker or "Target Bet" opportunity LOST!

The way I see it, no problem, as long as the following Player run continued some, which it did. If it didn't, I would have been looking for the next opportunity. Chop is a coming probably. When the runs stop, the chop starts. When the chop stops, the runs usually start. It just seems to be the nature of the beast. Many here have commented on the different segments of a shoe. Rarely ever does one stay the same throughout 70+ hands.

In that shoe, I stayed there and just waited, because I wanted that next "TB" opportunity when the Player run ended and Banker took off again. It did and I was ALL over it for the Win.

As it ended up after that, the shoe went into chop and I just walked away smiling. Completely typical of what I see and look for ALL the time.

I hope your game is well. It is always a constant learning experience. Most here in this thread have constantly improved/honed their skills to solid Winning levels.

This is a long and tough thread to read BUT, IMO is well worth it! It has turned most ALL of us into consistent Winners! Everyone here has given such great input, experience and tried numerous variations. "Target Betting" works and there is plenty of us to back up that claim. The other cool thing about it is that it works well in other games with a 1:1 bet such as craps DP line bet and even Roulette. I have used it there in those games but, by far, I have easily made more $$$ in less time at the Baccarat tables.

Hopefully, I have not come across as cocky. I just have great confidence from experience and a progressive betting method that works very well. As long as I bet correctly, follow the "TB" method and only play the shoes I WANT, I do very well.

Thanks for participating.
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