A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

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Bones
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Bones » Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:50 am

I have a question about the last video posted by Crapsjourney

CJ

You made a 400 unit recovery bet stage 3 level 2 that was successful and won. IF it had lost would you ever consider going to level 4?

I have backtested 133 live shoe results (all from same casino) it has gone to stage Four 23 times but has never gone to level 5.

Of course level five could be just lurking around the corner waiting for me.

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stratocasterman
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:01 am

Bones wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:32 am
I’ve noticed that the first half of shoe is really different than the second half but going to check out the 4 sections. Very interesting
OH Yea!

What I see the majority of the time is one half is mildly choppy and the other half is back to back runs of 3 or more. It's like two completely different patterns within the shoe. When it switches, it does so very sharply. Good catch Bones...
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crapsjourney
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by crapsjourney » Sat Jul 07, 2018 5:15 am

Bones wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:50 am
I have a question about the last video posted by Crapsjourney

CJ

You made a 400 unit recovery bet stage 3 level 2 that was successful and won. IF it had lost would you ever consider going to level 4?

I have backtested 133 live shoe results (all from same casino) it has gone to stage Four 23 times but has never gone to level 5.

Of course level five could be just lurking around the corner waiting for me.

Bones
Great question.

For me this system is a pure grind.

I’ve tried level 4 and the cons if you lose outway the pros if you win. I find it takes so much longer to crawl your way back from a level 4 loss it’s not worth the risk. It’s also dependant on bankroll available. And your strength for bigger bets.

Level 1 : $5,$10 ($15)
Level 2 : $25,$50 ($90)
Level 3 : $110,$225 ($440)
Level 4 : $500,$1100 ($2040)

So to attempt a level 4 you would need over $2K bankroll to support it.
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crapsjourney
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by crapsjourney » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:04 pm

Bones wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 3:26 pm
Image
Always look for the weakness in the system you use and keep your eye out for it, and know what to do when it happens.

Here are the true Target 3 play results - what Seth spreadsheets would have shown.

But I'm sure none of us would blindly continue to bet this way on the same shoe.

BonesTestShoe_Graph1.jpg
BonesTestShoe_Graph1.jpg (30.45 KiB) Viewed 2664 times

Here is my version how I approach the Target 3 Play on this shoe. I was very interested to see the outcome for myself. Of course I wouldn't continue to play this shoe after getting slapped in the face multiple times. But it's good to see how things shake out.

BonesTestShoe_Graph2.jpg
BonesTestShoe_Graph2.jpg (30.02 KiB) Viewed 2659 times
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Bones
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Bones » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:56 pm

And of course on the other hand if You had been in Banker
“Jackpot”
Great analysis thanx.

I’m becoming more aware of the danger signals. Certainly becoming more in tune to the shoe. I’ve missed out on a few bets here and there. If I see an abundance of twos and chops sprinkled in my danger flags come out. Since there are not more than two tables in operation I just pick n choose. Wait for a stage two and begin betting base unit.

Yesterday I was at the Gold Nugget Biloxi for a slot tournament and I saw a table where the shoe had ended and lo and behold there it was laughing it’s butt off at me.
Stage 6!!!!!! Might have been even worse as the cards ran out to see when it would have won.

Not that I’m looking for excuses. :roll: But this was a $50 table where they use a new deck each game as players bend and mutilate the cars each hand. Probably doesn’t matter at all. First time for me. Anybody else see it go past stage 4? It would be brown trouser city. And difficult to return from that abyss
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Bones
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Bones » Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:20 pm

After seeing the Failed shoe yesterday I gained a new perspective on the chance of disaster. Looked at CJ’s loss progression and agreed that a loss at stage 3 could be overcome a bunch easier than a loss at 4.
Today the shoes were somewhat difficult and I decided to go into pic n choose stutter step mode good thing.

Image

It actually started Ok but After I lost my base bet hand 8 I Waited as the stage one level two bet failed I was now entering stage two recovery mode bet with Two units instead of three.

Brown trouser moment for me. Finally won stage three level two technically step four if I had not waited that one hand Ouch.

Also!!! That tie bet before the win 8 8 was a thrill. When I flipped that 8 I thought I won However since it was a large bet I tossed $10 on the tie.
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thnick
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by thnick » Sun Jul 08, 2018 9:26 am

Been working baccarat methods now for hundreds of shoes. If you are going to play the martingale death star system, why not wait until the dragon tail is more than five or six long on either banker or player and then come in on the opposing side? Take a look at the "big road"..which is what I watch. Look at Bones' big road. You see player goes 5 and then you get banker. Other big roads show 6 and more one sided moves. Just my opinion, but following that method I have not had one losing session and I have never gone anywhere near a grand. Starting at 6 with whatever bets you want to make. I start with $25. And they happen all the time.

Bones
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Bones » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:28 pm



I’ve tried level 4 and the cons if you lose outway the pros if you win. I find it takes so much longer to crawl your way back from a level 4 loss it’s not worth the risk. It’s also dependant on bankroll available. And your strength for bigger bets.

Level 1 : $5,$10 ($15)
Level 2 : $25,$50 ($90)
Level 3 : $110,$225 ($440)
Level 4 : $500,$1100 ($2040)

So to attempt a level 4 you would need over $2K bankroll to support it.
CJ !!! Level three sounds good to me!!! :oops:
Scout. The player runs at beginning of this shoe could be a signal “Banker “ beware.
Thnick. Spot on. When I Arrived at the casino this am The Deathstar was primed at level 8!!!!!!!!!

I shouted to the dealer wait but it was too late the cards are in motion crap I missed out on the golden opportunity however it was a tie OMG Are the gambling gods looking out for me??? That would be a change.
I bet $75 on Banker (really should have been more) but wtf it loses. Oh the humanity that’s a bust at stage 4 level 2!!! If I had arrive just 20 minutes earlier I would have had my clock cleaned thank you for traffic thank you for going back into the house because I forgot my wallet thank U thank U thank U

Image


Next betting opportunity stage 5 level 1 I bet $150 and won.
Seems like thnick has a valid point.
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thnick
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by thnick » Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:33 pm

That's some PLAYER tail up there, Bones.Wow..9? 11? That doesn't happen every day. You can come in on PLAYER and keep going with it until you get one Banker and start the move..or go after six.

Irukanji
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Irukanji » Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:02 pm

But coming down to reality, isn't it just a random game?
Previous results are not indicative of future performance.

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by crapsjourney » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:11 am

Yes
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stratocasterman
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:50 pm

Irukanji wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 9:02 pm
But coming down to reality, isn't it just a random game?
Agreed...and one that provides so many Target Betting opportunities to Win on!
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Bones » Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:49 pm

Once again I fortunately arrived to my demise late

Image

The shoe was finished if I had been 30 minutes earlier my bankroll would have been destroyed
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stratocasterman
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:28 pm

Some times you are just livin' right Bones!

For grins, I worked my way through this just to see what would have happened to myself betting Banker Target Wins only (my method).

Surprsingly, I had two Recoveries and ended up with a ONE unit loss...hahaha!

I would have surely taken a walk on the first Recovery level of this shoe though... ;)
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Tgold
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Tgold » Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:12 pm

Hi SCM--good thread. Ive followed and read most of posts/responses. I like how you constantly study/record/analyze with constant monitoring of your wins, roi, and net.
Thanks for all your effort to share your thoughts and hours of research.

Re:Your trigger of see a B bet a B. Although this obviously seems to work for you with a negpro catchup ladder. After reading your comments IMO your study of the game, knowledge of your systems' strengths/weaknesses, coupled with your large bet spread/ patience I perceive you would in all likelihood be winning with most any sensible system.



A) Because your hit rate is obviously >50.0% have you played or considered doing a moderate pospro with predetermined pull downs (i.e., when you hit your win goal, get even for that session....etc), using your same indicator of see a B bet a B, wait for another return B bet a B?

B)Have you considered other triggers (e.g., See BB bet B, see the weakside hit a 6ier or a 7ier and wager against run for one or two wagers...etc)?

C) Do you ever wager Opp or is it exclusively B only?


D) Do you increase your wager size as your bankroll continues to increase. I don't recall how much you started this system with but lets say (e.g., lets say the initial monies you risked was 1000 and you were wagering a base of $25(0.025%), once that initial 1000 buyin say increased to 2000---would you stay at 25 wager or increase upward toward $40-$50,....etc as a f(x) of your overall amount your willing to risk "not necessarily you bankroll but the amount you would risk that session")?

E)Since you seem adamant to wager B most of the time do you or have you tried doing any type of counting that would suggest a B or P may have a larger-than-expected edge at certain stages of shoe?

Thoughts?
Thx again



All the best,
Tgold

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:13 am

Tgold wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:12 pm
A) Because your hit rate is obviously >50.0% have you played or considered doing a moderate pospro with predetermined pull downs (i.e., when you hit your win goal, get even for that session....etc), using your same indicator of see a B bet a B, wait for another return B bet a B?

B)Have you considered other triggers (e.g., See BB bet B, see the weakside hit a 6ier or a 7ier and wager against run for one or two wagers...etc)?

C) Do you ever wager Opp or is it exclusively B only?


D) Do you increase your wager size as your bankroll continues to increase. I don't recall how much you started this system with but lets say (e.g., lets say the initial monies you risked was 1000 and you were wagering a base of $25(0.025%), once that initial 1000 buyin say increased to 2000---would you stay at 25 wager or increase upward toward $40-$50,....etc as a f(x) of your overall amount your willing to risk "not necessarily you bankroll but the amount you would risk that session")?

E)Since you seem adamant to wager B most of the time do you or have you tried doing any type of counting that would suggest a B or P may have a larger-than-expected edge at certain stages of shoe?
Thanks Tgold, I appreciate your response and questions!

A) If I understand correctly, just betting only a B after a B (Target Bet) and then awaiting the next singular instance may be something to look at instead of keep pushing the envelope by betting until a loss occurs.

B) Actually not, BUT I DO like the idea! In my experiences over the years, after a run of 6+ or so turns around, it usually goes for at least two or three on the rebound.

C) You will find me very hard pressed to bet Player but, I have done the switch a time or two briefly. I have beaten Player dominant shoes betting Banker on many occasions. What I find is more back to back Banker wins in shoes than Player back to back wins overall (casino and testing).

D) No I haven't increased my bet sizes. I have been asked this before and have thought about it but, I think I am just very comfortable with the current progression and Recovery bets. My original goal was to simply rebuild my BR for craps actually. It has gone so well I suppose I just haven't wanted to rock the boat!

E) This is a very good question. As I stated before, Lee liked to break a shoe down into 4 different parts or stages. By doing this, you will usually see trends within those sections that typically reverse themselves. Another thing is that as the shoe continues, be aware of how many Ties have occurred. Ties seem to continue to let the current shoe's B/P ratio to continue in that same fashion. Meaning that whichever B or P is ahead...it should continue this way. This gives a person a bit of an edge IMO.
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Tgold » Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:36 pm

Good Evening SCM--hope all is well in your part of the world.
Thanks for your response.

Re: See 1er B-->wager B: I like your trigger, and obviously as an added benefit you're not having to endure all the other less-predictable nonsense that happens in longer runs. I have several other B triggers, however, as I do with your seeB--wagerB trigger, I like to always confirm it is indeed hitting in that particular shoe(and most importantly it is hitting in the most recent section of the shoe. I typically track 10-15 hands before jumping into a shoe. In other words I like to wager on what is happening "right now" and the further I am from previous events the less these older events affect my next wager.


Re: Increasing your wager as your bankroll continues to grow: I can see why you prefer to keep things "as is" because it is working for you.

However,as a thought to ponder as I know you know all of this: I do think as your winning streak continues then once your initial bankroll has grown to say 2.5X initial that it would be beneficial to increase your wager to maybe 1.5x---1.75ish of your current wager % as you will see your bankroll compounding at tiny rates over time and that will grow larger than any big-win day,week, or month could ever produce. Plus you wont be increasing your risk-to-ruin. It sounds like you are playing hundreds of hands per week so your edge only needs to be miniscule for extreme growth to occur.

Im currently on a very nice 2year run and the two main changes that I perceive contributed the most was A)Lowering my per shoe win goal from >=5-6U to >=3-4U, as the shoe wants to sway back/forth and for me it is much easier to jump on a normal and commonly occurring sway than waiting and hoping for a huge sway and only having a 50-50 chance of being on the correct side of that huge sway,
and B) Wagering a %amount as a f(x) of my "money-willing-to-risk" (not necessarily our whole bankroll), and as that increases I increased the individual wager size.

Re: Ties affecting the early shoe trend--I agree with your thoughts that if ties continue to show at or above the early-shoe rate , then the leading side is more likely than not to finish the shoe in the lead(though the sides may approach even before the finish line/ lead may decrease).
IMO one of the contributing factors to this is when ties show at or above early shoe rate in say last 50% of shoe--these excessive ties are lowering the number of decisions available so the trailing side has less potential (fewer opportunities) to make a comeback.

As we know after approx 60-70% of shoe the card depletion starts affecting what can or cant show(especially in last deck). One of many variable I like to track to help with discerning if the leader is going to grow its lead or relinquish the lead is to track 8/9s and which side has most recently been receiving the 8/9s. As we know 8/9s have a huge voice in determining if P is going to draw that third card(If we are wagering B we WANT P to draw as much as possible) otherwise we are paying 5% on a B wager that is simply winning a 50-50 wager by luck and nothing to do with a drawing advantage(which is what we are paying for). I love to see a shoe where P is hammering the B wager in the first few decks AND 8/9s have been depleted at an excessively greater than expected rate for that point in the shoe---often suggests that we want to lean toward B wager at latter hands. However, as we all know nothing is ever guaranteed.

Have a great week SCM


All the best,
Tgold

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stratocasterman
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:51 pm

All...Tgold, yet another who watches the shoe in quarterly sections, card depletion and Ties. These are never a sure thing but, some great indicators in the "long run".

Tgold...great insight and information!

Thanks for your post!
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by crapsjourney » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:41 am

Did I see mentioned here about betting less than the minimum per hand? How is that done?

Spent a bit of time watching a $100 minimum table and still couldn’t work it out.
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by eastcoast » Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:53 pm

Thanks to all for the insight and information here....I do have a question for the Biloxi players.....what casinos have the electronic Baccarat?

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