A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

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stratocasterman
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:42 am

crapsjourney wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:41 am
Did I see mentioned here about betting less than the minimum per hand? How is that done?

Spent a bit of time watching a $100 minimum table and still couldn’t work it out.
Yes Aaron...

I will bet the usual $20 table minimum on Banker and Player at two positions at the table or ("ride" another player's bet at his/her position) and then just add my $6 or $14 level one or level two bet to the Banker bet. In effect, I have bet $26 Banker and a $20 Player. :D

The pit/dealers never even bat an eye at it because lots of people crowd around the table and ride other players bets (asking politely first). They will ask to add $2-10 to your bet for them since they can't make a table minimum bet.

Take your $100 table and bet $100B/$100P and then add whatever bet you REALLY want to make. It all comes out in the wash...

This being a third world country here, I think they feel sorry for people who don't have enough money for minimums but, STILL want their money. So, they will allow people to ride other's bets or just do the "Doey/Don't" table minimum and add whatever you want to really bet.

They actually have a separate area of about 16 tables where "Standing at the Table or Riding Bets" is NOT allowed. The high rollers generally play there because they refused to be bothered by anyone standing/breathing down their necks or asking to ride their bets!!! Asians are SO superstitious!!! LOL
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by crapsjourney » Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:18 am

I get it now. Play both sides at the same table. Ok. I often see $200 tables empty. Dealer 1/2 asleep bored with nothing to do. I’ll ask next time I’m at casino if they would allow that play.

Or I guess I could get my wife to join me at the table and play the opposite side. ;) Now that would be a boring bet. Same bet every single hand.
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:36 am

crapsjourney wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:18 am
Or I guess I could get my wife to join me at the table and play the opposite side. ;) Now that would be a boring bet. Same bet every single hand.
Hey...the upside is she can drink til she drops! Never has to worry about what to bet...LOL!
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Bones » Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:30 pm

eastcoast wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:53 pm
Thanks to all for the insight and information here....I do have a question for the Biloxi players.....what casinos have the electronic Baccarat?
Actually there are not any RNG Baccarat games left in Biloxi. However Harrahs has a camera pointed on the live table (sometimes 2 tables simultaneously)that is transmitted to six electronic stations directly behind live action. At these stations the min bet is $5 m-thurs $10 on weekends. And best of all they deal a new hand every 30 seconds a tad longer if pokey donkey players can’t decide on their bet or if someone is buying in.
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Bones » Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:32 pm

Ps. U can also play roulette at these stations if u so desire. And they spin the wheel every 30 seconds even if u don’t make a bet.
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by eastcoast » Thu Jul 26, 2018 11:35 pm

Thanks Bones, I had asked the same question to some Atlantic City players, and they said only 1 there also...the new Hard Rock.

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:33 am

For Bones...

Hey everybody...A congrats to Bones on the $134.60 Baccarat Win the other day he mentioned in his thread "Make the Call" https://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsfor ... 5&start=40 and the guts and follow through with your Craps complaint with the Gaming Commission!

Sticking through with your complaint was a big Win in my book for ALL of us Players! I salute you for standing your ground!

Also, I love having this "Target Betting" tool as a fairly reliable way to regain $s lost from the craps table.

Keep us updated on those Baccarat Wins!
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:49 am

Since Tgold's last post back on page 10 of this thread, I decided to really start studying/watching the different sectors in shoes, as I walk around the casino floor looking to play.

One thing I wanted to add here was something that I have been noticing quite a bit. Maybe you have seen this too. What I have been noticing is that in almost every shoe, there seems to be a period of ones/twos...followed by a breakout section of back to back Player and Banker runs of 4 or more (PPBPBPPBBPBBPBPBPPPPPBBBBPPPPBBBBBBPPPPBBBBB). This is "Target Betting" at it's finest for me.

Sometimes it happens the opposite way, with the shoe starting with back to back runs that will all of a sudden stop/fade into ones/twos. You're never sure when it will end but, mostly seem to get 5-7 back to back runs before things fizzle out.

Have you witnessed the same on a fairly regular basis?
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by eastcoast » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:04 am

strato, what I have done is divide the shoe in 1/3...I have hand written about 50 shoes from the WOO practice site, and what I have noticed is when you have runs of 3s or 4s, for example Banker Dominate on the first 1/3, it will sometime shift to Player Dominate on the second 1/3...(not always of course) then on the last 1/3, will be neutral....meaning P will have a run of 3, a few hands later B will have a run of 3, the rest chop. And of course, there are a few shoes that stayed that stayed the same regardless of the shoe division.

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by thnick » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:50 am

Betting on the winning hand single bets until it loses (say P) and then doubling up on the now winner B in martingale fashion and then continuing on that side until it loses seems to catch a winner or a sequence more easily. But then a chop will kill you, tho I haven't seen a shoe where a chop continues for a lot of hands. In reality I can't see how a shoe would be anything but random so I can't see how dividing it does anything. Is there any math or science behind dividing a shoe?

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by eastcoast » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:16 pm

thnick, its only a guidepost, so to speak....if the chop does not clear up by say the first third, i may skip the shoe all together. A example: I ran into this at my last visit to the casino... When I first arrived I counted about 15-18 hands of chop, so i figured if it did not clear up by 25-30 hands....I would wait till a new shoe, so thats what I did. Interblock at Maryland Live usually has 2 games going at once, so it at least gives you a chance to skip a game all together and play another one.

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:32 pm

thnick wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:50 am
Is there any math or science behind dividing a shoe?
I don't think there is any math on shoe sections. If Ties persist at a rate beyond what is usually expected, beyond the halfway point of the shoe, the B/P ratio usually continues in the same fashion. I think Lee had some math figures on this but, I do not remember exactly. May have to revisit that.
eastcoast wrote:
Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:16 pm
thnick, its only a guidepost, so to speak....if the chop does not clear up by say the first third, i may skip the shoe all together. A example: I ran into this at my last visit to the casino... When I first arrived I counted about 15-18 hands of chop, so i figured if it did not clear up by 25-30 hands....I would wait till a new shoe, so thats what I did. Interblock at Maryland Live usually has 2 games going at once, so it at least gives you a chance to skip a game all together and play another one.
exactly eastcoast...That's what I will do too. It is so rare to see a chop last more that 50-66% of a shoe but, it does happen occasionally. I remember a shoe I played WAY back then, before I learned of "Target Betting". I was just flat betting the table minimum. Had a run of 32 or 33 ones, unbelievable! Scored just over a $600 Win on a $20 table betting the "Opposite Last Bet" scenario. After the first 10 Win results or so, you just can't help but continue betting in the same fashion until you get beat...

Like being at the craps table...if the chop doesn't clear up, it's time for me to leave. I'll wait for tomorrow.

Thanks for the input thnick and eastcoast...
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by eastcoast » Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:48 am

Has anyone recognized different patterns when the cards are machine shuffled vs hand shuffled?

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:47 am

eastcoast wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:48 am
Has anyone recognized different patterns when the cards are machine shuffled vs hand shuffled?
For the past 6 years here, they've had $10 tables using the automatic card shuffler - Shuffle Master and the $20 tables were pre-hand shuffled in the back room (you can actually watch them do it through a plexiglass window). Within the last 6 months, they have completely done away with the $10 tables all together and I have not seen any automatic Shuffle Master machines on the Baccarat tables in my main "go to" casino.

IMO, the automatic Shuffle Master shoes seem to produce more back to back runs (of 3 or more alike) in bigger clumps than the pre-hand shuffled shoes. I think the pre-hand shuffled shoes deliver the longest runs I have ever seen (3-24, I think 24 was the highest I've seen) as compared to the automatic Shuffle Master shoes.

Once again, this is just my opinion of hundreds and hundreds of shoe observations/playing over the years now. I think there IS a pattern difference between the two but, I have no actual data to back it up.

Good question eastcoast!
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by stratocasterman » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:23 pm

Well alrighty…brain started thinkin’ again! (kudos to eastcoast who has really got me examining things again lately)

MORE STATS!

I’m not quite sure why I hadn’t thought of this newest stat and why it hasn’t surfaced in this thread before. As I was in the casino the other day, I found myself counting the number of Banker runs that actually resulted in a back-to-back “Target Betting” result, as opposed to those that didn’t. That prompted me to suddenly realize something.

What if I went back and got some percentage stats/ratios on the actual amount of Player/Banker runs that actually resulted in a back-to-back “Target Betting” result. This might give us a clue as to what we should expect in a shoe AND an indicator once into any specific shoe. Make sense? Here is what I found going back through actual and testing (Baccarat Buster2 app) shoes. These are samplings from roughly 300 shoes. I found NO difference in averaging all 300 or just picking 50 shoes at a time. Thus, I feel no need in trying to test samples of hundreds of thousands of shoes. It just is what it is and no huge amount of data is going to prove anything different IMO.
First, let me qualify a Player or Banker run. It is ANY amount of one or more consecutive results of a Player or Banker. In other words, anytime the Big Board switches from Player to Banker to Player to Banker…back and forth…follow?

The overall average amount of Player OR Banker runs was 17 each. This is roughly based on the average shoe sample of 75 hands. The FEWEST amount of runs for either Player or Banker was 13. The MOST amount of runs for either Player or Banker was 21.

On average, Player “Target Bet” results happened 7.9 times per shoe, for an overall average of 47%.
On average, Banker “Target Bet” results happened 9.4 times per shoe, for an overall average of 56%.
Lowest/Highest Player “Target Bet” percentages were, 24% and 76%
Lowest/Highest Banker “Target Bet” percentages were, 31% and 80%

Now I don’t really find any of these figures that surprising for what I typically see of shoes in the casino. What I DO think this information reveals is when you see a shoe that is lopsided FROM these figures. What do you think?

To illustrate what I am saying here is this. I’ll use a shoe I saw the other day. Now this is from memory and not factually written down but, as I say an illustration. I realized that I see several of these types of shoes nearly every outing.
B
PP
B
PPP
BB
PPPPP
B
PP

See where this is going? Four of the first four Player runs are “Target Betting” premium Winning bets to only one out of four for the Banker. VERY lopsided results early on AND Player has quickly used up 4 of its average 7.9 “Target Betting” opportunities. Let's continue...

BBB
P
B
PP
BB
P
BBB
P
BBBBB
PP
BBBB
P
BBBBBBB

Suddenly, the Player runs stagnate and Banker runs appear. Now in this sample scenario, and what I had noticed in the casino, was that either Player or Banker ran off a “Target Betting” string of back-to-back Winning runs. Call it the law of averages or what-ever, most shoes will generally balance out by the end of the shoe. YES, there are absolute runaway shoes with Player or Banker killing it BUT, I just don’t see that happening very often. With an average shoe of 75 hands, this leaves plenty of time for things to equalize. If shoes averaged say 35 hands…what do you think the chances are for things to equalize themselves, if one side or the other jumped off to a big head start? See my point? I tend to think the only reason I have noticed this, is because there are plenty of hands stretched out in the shoe to observe the phenomenon.

I don’t think it is really much different than seeing a lot of chop then suddenly, long back-to-back runs show up. On average, what I see, is things changing/reversing themselves…because they have enough or ample time (number of hands in the shoe) to do it in.

I think we tend to only remember what really stands out, rather than the average, mundane happenings. I remember that shoe one time with the 21 result Banker streak or the one/two only chop that stretched all the way through the entire shoe. Or the one where there were 20 Ties.

What do YOU see at the casino, most of the time? Thoughts?
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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by KrapsNovice » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:30 am

Michael,

It has been a few months since I have played. I went with a friend a few evenings but he plays in the high limit room and just wants me there for moral support and to give him my thoughts on the next result. Funny how when I do not gamble and sit back and observe a baccarat table I can call more winners than losers but in the heat of battle when I am gambling just randomly playing the board the reverse would happen. Regardless, if he does well he tosses me a black chip.

It was not uncommon to see long runs of chops. Ex. BPBPBPBPBP. I have a stop set up for tables like that if I get burned at BPBP I am done until that run ends. Now, at times I play that run and take a chance with one unit if it hits I parlay, then restart with one unit and parlay again in case that long chop run comes along.

How do you play those chops with Target?

I know you had emailed me the target betting chart and strategy but I have forgotten most of it. Too busy with work for now. I might have to refresh my memory as I am off a week at the end of this month. I recall you play for a second bank with target betting.

I hope all is well and Merry Christmas to all!

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Tgold » Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:28 am

Hi Stratocasterman, hope your doing well/ thx for all the fine bac posts.

"...Call it the law of averages or what-ever, most shoes will generally balance out by the end of the shoe. YES, there are absolute runaway shoes with Player or Banker killing it BUT, I just don’t see that happening very often. With an average shoe of 75 hands, this leaves plenty of time for things to equalize. If shoes averaged say 35 hands…what do you think the chances are for things to equalize themselves,.."

I agree the majority of shoes will try to balance out on most of the many 50/50ish outcomes throughout the shoe. The 416 cards, 84 outcomes, and 74 decisions are certainly sufficient for this to occur. However, instead of this balancing act being due to law of averages or law of large numbers...etc, in a single shoe I feel it is primarily due to just simply the nature of the game, drawing rules, and the finiteness of the shoe.

Because of this constant balancing ebb/flow I find it helpful to start looking and anticipating this "catch-up" by the trailer on any 50/50 event that one side has taken a >=2SD lead. We obviously don't know for sure or when this will occur.

One approach I find helpful is to divide the shoe into 3-5 sections based on when one section of events appears to "change" to something different then what has been occurring. IMO these sections will often consist of 10-15 horizontal columns each and though we cant say definitively the section has ended, we can see when a specific trend is no longer occurring. For example if we see many 4-6iers in lets say the first 10 columns and then a couple 2iers, then three-four 1iers,(These three-four 1iers often indicate the first section is over and the next section will often be something different(often many 1iers)--though the trailing side may not necessarily be gaining yet) we then often will see a section of 10-15 columns with mostly 1iers,2iers, and 1-2,2-2iers columns.

As Strato mentioned in one of his above posts it seems that it is more common to see a section of runs 4-6iers change to a next section of 1/2iers and less likely to see back-to-back sections of 1/2iers changing to a next section of 4-6iers. My data analyses suggests its often the 3rd and 4th section (or after 55-65% of shoe is depleted) where that trailer will achieve the full comeback, if it indeed is meant to happen/not recovered yet.
*A reminder that trailing by 2-4 in first half of shoe isn't really abnormal (Im suggesting a trailer by >=6-8 decisions or approaching 2SD).
Just be patient, watch for it, and play-the-sway.

As suggested by (eastcoast post above on » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:04 am), often the trailer catches up with multi small shifts of maybe 3-1,4-2,5-2 instead of one long run of a 7ier. In the last 10-15 hands I feel the non-balancing outcomes that often have the trailer catching up is more likely due to card depletion. I see more consecutive column runs of 4-8iers occur most often in the very early stages of shoe, though we often will see a trailer side make a late single 5-7ier run in last 10-15 hands. My hypothesis on the consecutive-column run streaks often presenting in the beginning of shoe is IMO due to the drawing rules and for P to draw/ then potentially inducing B to draw there has to be certain cards still available. The same reason we are more likely to see a 3c7 show in the first 30% of shoe.

I always watch for the ebb/flow, careful once I've received a lot of positive variance for my side early in the shoe, and cautiously anticipate the trailer comeback, and "play-the-sway".

All the best,
Tgold

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by thnick » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:20 am

Wondering if one could work the math on the technique of simply waiting for dragon tails of 7 or more and then playing the opposite hand with a martingale or fib progression. You can see the DT on the monitor they so freely provide. May not be for everybody but it avoids ever being chopped to death.

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by Tgold » Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:47 pm

Hi Thnick. Good posts/thoughts.

. re: "...of simply waiting for dragon tails of 7 or more and then playing the opposite hand with a martingale or fib progression..."

I too like to watch for a shoe presenting one of the 50/50ish outcomes and when one side of something has shown >=2SD(reminder for p/b outcomes 1SD is approx 4 on a 74 decision 8deck shoe ignoring ties as a no decision), so if for example I see P ahead by say 8ish decisions early in the shoe(and other variables seem normal) then I may look to play-the-sway on the B side "once I see an indication that B is indeed starting a comeback". Though I might caution that in a single shoe 8 outcomes on any 50/50 proposition is still within the statistically normal range. We can also look at other indicators to try and determine if the shoe is just one "weird" shoe and go with the weirdness or we can inspect the outcomes and make a decision the shoe is normal, yet temporarily swayed to one side.

Re: seeing a dragon tail of 7or more.....then starting a marty or fib progression...
---that may work as more often than not we would expect the trailing sides' comeback will be in the nature of something similar to: bbbPbbbPbbbPP instead of bbbbbbbbP. However, if we guess wrong on the exact time the trailer starts the comeback then we obviously suffer a quick harsh bust.

Even if we have determined it is a normal shoe with just some temporary sway to one side IMO it is too dangerous to challenge the cas with negpros such as a marty or fib progression, simply because they are both extreme growth progressions(just my opinion as I don't want to grow an edge against myself), as I find it more efficient to challenge the casino by trying to control variance(betting very few hands per shoe) vs challenging directly with my bankroll vs casinos BR. Instead of a negpro marty or fib progression, and if my methodology was predetermined to do a negpro then I would be more likely to play the shoe-sway scenario above with something like the following on the trailing side: (X,X,X,X,X,X,X, X+,X+,X+,X+,X+,X+,X+, X++,X++,X++, , , , , X+++, ….etc) until Im ahead one unit and then revert back to my original 1.0 unit.
Good thoughts everyone.


All the best,
Tgold

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Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy

Post by eastcoast » Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:40 pm

Tgold, thanks for the informative posts, I want to take the time to digest them. Now on to a trip report....The Sands, Bethlehem Pa., with a few relatives in tow, on Saturday evening. The Sands had to have one of the biggest stadium set ups I have ever seen. There was a central podium, with 3 dealers on baccarat, and one dealer working 2 Roulette wheels on the opposite side. The was a Pit Boss on the podium also.....and He/She were floating among the seats, answering questions. The seating was circular, I did not count the rows, bit I am thinking it must have been at least 5 rows, maybe 6.There was also another Black Jack stadium seating, but not quite as big as the Baccarat/Roulette. Limits were 5.00-10,000 on BP.(Speaking of Free play, it was allowed only on 50.00 and up tables.) My brother in law was tagging along to watch, so I spent most of the time just flat betting and talking about the flow of the game.
Because of time constraints,I was only able to get 2 shoes in before we left, my point is... that it was great conditions here, no changes in the minimum like at Md. Live, plenty of seating, and you could smoke if you wished. Hopefully at time goes on, we can catalog the casinos that have the stadium seating, at least then if anyone is in the area they will know whats available. If anybody knows any detail about the Philly area casinos, that would be helpful.

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