Kentucky Derby 2019

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Raider
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by Raider » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:55 am

ohio yes to taxes, and can not deduct losess from winnings, nice way of saying cheat on your taxes, four hours to the draw, then I can start working it. As far was win win win, he didn't fit the angle that the other three did, but does hit others
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Raider
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by Raider » Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:46 pm

here is the pole postion draw, looks good for heavys picks, win win win might bet boxed in, but since he is a stalker, should be ok, Will of War needs to jump out fast on will get caught on the rail.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... itions_123. The ML odds on win win win have dropped, and might drop further.

One of the tools I use is a software program that handicaps and scores. its not super effective at that, but it also allows your to look at how bets work on a data base, with a little tweaking , that works ok. a score of 40 or more is always the Fav. On this years derby, all the horses are with in five points of one another. A normal derby is like a 30 point spread. So the software says "its wide open"
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jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by jaime1943 » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:23 pm

Greetings Raider,

I smell a fish, WIN WIN WIN is getting early money When i see him in my handicapping as a LONGSHOT.

You and i better start watching that board for the late money, i have seen this movie before.

On saterday, 10 minutes before the race OPEN your eyes to see where the late money is going too.

I am still going to bet WIN WIN WIN BUT i am going to cover my bets with the late money.

any comments are welcome.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Raider
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by Raider » Wed May 01, 2019 8:05 am

If there is a place in PR that is taking bets, so you can see where the money is going, Ok. But right now, the only place you can make a bet on the KYD is vegas. with the fav get over 100k each, it going to be hard for me to keep and eye on any late money. At least he got a good draw, the 1 hole for will of war, damn, an country house in 10, long range toddy in the 18, not looking go for mine. was looking over the form, Mike smith on OB, and Johnny V on Code of Honor on a new shooter trainer? got to wonder about that.
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thnick
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by thnick » Wed May 01, 2019 10:36 am

ride the ghost of Johnny E. Longden. Mike Smith is good.

jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by jaime1943 » Wed May 01, 2019 10:53 am

Greetings Raider,

yes there is a place in puerto rico THAT is taking bets on the derby, bet they have a pool that is only for the puerto rican betters.

here they are talking about the early money on W3.

And yes they have a board that you can watch till one minute before the race AND then make your bet

Does anybody know how to get into a vegas board ? I do not.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by Raider » Wed May 01, 2019 3:21 pm

Not me, I checked the odds, butto tell you the truth, idn't under stand them +500 to +6000
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jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by jaime1943 » Wed May 01, 2019 3:45 pm

I think vegas is trying to pull a fast one in this derby, what the hell does [ +500 to +6ooo ] means.

I have been playing horses for 50 years and this is the first time i see those numbers.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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DarthNater
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by DarthNater » Wed May 01, 2019 8:48 pm

Yeah, its used to be always fractions, alas the new wave of sports betting. I get it though..... +6000 = 60/1

Anyway the favorite at 4/1 just scratched....breathing problems...... choker?

So the next three favorites all have the same trainer, though are spread widely across the gates. Should make for some interesting exacta pairings.....

D.N8r
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Raider
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by Raider » Thu May 02, 2019 6:55 am

damn, a BB tri? wait, that mean s bodexpress is in, same daddy as always dreaming, hell maybe we will get lucky another scratch or two
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by Raider » Thu May 02, 2019 7:42 am

Haikal - Foot Abscess doubt if he is in, Signalman next in
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thnick
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by thnick » Thu May 02, 2019 8:36 am

Longshot pick..exacta. 3 with the 8 6. And probably box the 7. That is Vekoma, Tacitus, By My Standards..max security. The Beyer numbers look pretty good and there's some toughness in these nags.

Tgold
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by Tgold » Thu May 02, 2019 9:48 am

Thx for posts/ideas.
I was disappointed to see OmahaB drop out(not because I thought it was the superior horse but was optimistic the fan-favorites money would push him to the top spot as a false fav, which I will label as Horse A), so I could hopefully rec better odds on my personal top2 selections that will likely be at or near the 2nd/3rd wagering favorites , which I label as Horse B or C.

DERBY DAY.
I shall allot 10.0 units for races at the derby.
I shall only wager 1.0 U on one horse to win on approximately 7 races plus the derby which will receive 2.5U of my allotment /possibly + one super. If I do a super for .80u then my derby win ticket will reduce by that amount(e.g., 2.5-.80 =1.7U WIN wager).

I usually make my win horse as the 2nd or 3rd favorite and close to 5/2 odds as possible and >= to 5/2. So many of my win selections will not be the crowd fav but usually at (>=5/2,3/1,7/2...etc). I will only wager one WIN ticket per my selected race except the derby will have a WIN wager and one superfecta utilizing my WIN horse at the top of the superfecta as I always try not to hedge any wagers

So my single 1.0 wager on ~7 races will look like : 1.0 U to win on (B or C)

The Derby WIN wager will look like: 1.7U to win on Horse B OR C

My Derby $1super will look like "one" of the following:

Option 1: BCD/ABCD/ABCDE/ABCDEF= $81

OR

Option2: BC/ABC/ABCDEFG/ABCDEFG=$80


I will likely utuilize Option2 as I don't think this is a good race for a top-heavy super.

IF I do utilize Option1 for my super Im considering putting Bafferts' best two horses along with Max Security as my BCD horses. Im unlikey to put the crowd fav (A) in the first slot. Unfortunately we likely wont have a dominant crowd fav so may be several in that 3/1--5/1 range. I was hoping OmahaB would be the Horse A and pull a high percentage of monies, as I didn't think he was truly the best and would have been placed in my second slot. So Im not sure at this point and welcome any thoughts or suggestions.

Im also considering putting all three Baffert horses at the top of my super simply because I feel he can strategize some with this many horses in the pack. Currently Im considering my top rung of the super as: Game winner, Roadster, Max security. I will likely kick Improbable down to the second rung as the A horse.

Obviously I wont know for sure until Saturday morning line and will try to post all my picks (Eight WIN wagers/ one super) here on sat afternoon prederby post time.


I perceive there are only 3-4 quality horses capable of winning and approx. 60% of the field are only there to observe the backside of the aforementioned 3-4 horses, obstruct, and bragging rights/street cred to barn buddies back at their home pasture. I can see the horses gathering around. Hey "Imhalfjackass" how did you do at the derby this weekend: "better than expected as I went off at 60-1, tripped up a couple of bafferts ponies, and finished 19th." :D



All the best,
Tgold

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DarthNater
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by DarthNater » Thu May 02, 2019 9:01 pm

Tgold,
Fascinating to read your approach, good luck !
Your lack of faith in The Force disturbs me, Commander.......

jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by jaime1943 » Thu May 02, 2019 10:29 pm

Greetings raider and all members,

Can you tell me who the mudders are in this race AND the pace setters also.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Raider
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by Raider » Fri May 03, 2019 7:39 am

GW and Vekoma at the 6f, with tax and WOW on the inside, if its 22 an change at the second, WOW might fade, Tax wont, if Roadster gets mud in his face, he is going to spit the bit, Improbable was in the ARD, 19% muder on both sides(, to Vekomas 21% on both sides), but he might be between horse, if he breaks free... right now, my thinking is that GW tax Vekoma and Improbable in the top three, too much rain right now to see the finish line/ If its 22 at 2 and 46 at four its one race, if its 23 and 47 its another. Tax has run his last 3 races 1 1/8 and ITM in all three, Country House has run two, with the rest only one, and CH was in the ARD as well, Like the way this is shaping up
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by Raider » Fri May 03, 2019 9:08 am

Mike smith on Cutting humor, and Johnny V on code of honor. I have who I think will be number 1 spot, or anywhere in the top four, second and third, still workin that, with my longshots in the fourth postion. going to be a strange ticket
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jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by jaime1943 » Fri May 03, 2019 9:44 am

Goodmorning Raider,

Good INFO thank you. are you going to show us your play before the race /// WIN EX TRIPLE AND ALL THE other bets you are going to make.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

r_ventura_23
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by r_ventura_23 » Fri May 03, 2019 9:53 am

Alright guys....I have a $20 free bet to use. Any suggestions for the derby?

jaime1943
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Re: Kentucky Derby 2019

Post by jaime1943 » Fri May 03, 2019 12:22 pm

Yes i have a Suggestion, bet the 20 dollars on the [PP 1] to show, then go out to dinner with your winnings.

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