Preakness PP

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Raider
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Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Wed May 08, 2019 10:11 am

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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Wed May 08, 2019 6:06 pm

Might have jumped the gun on this one, One horse listed is not going to show and Win Win Win has been added. I know, whats the point with no TC on the line. It is the lowest payouts of the TC. Best we could hope for is a 2 out of three for the history books. The top two win more often than not. Hasn't been a tri pay out of over 2k since 2013 out of 6 since 97. Only 4 super since 98 were over 10k. I never bet this one large and hope for a belmont with the TC on the line, since thats not going to happen, hmmm wonder if we could have two two out of three winners
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wild child
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by wild child » Wed May 08, 2019 7:47 pm

Win Win Win is taken ....

How long before ....PAY PAY PAY gets to run the Big Three horse races ?

just me saying

w c

jaime1943
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by jaime1943 » Thu May 09, 2019 5:36 pm

Greetings wild child,
wild child ask...How long before ...PAY PAY PAY gets to run [ the Big THree horse race ].

When the track collects what the players LOST LOST LOST.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Fri May 10, 2019 6:33 am

they weren't too far off last time, but I expect them to go up


Preakness Stakes Contenders
 Horse  Projected odds
 Improbable  3-1 had him in the derby, let me down, don't know right now
 War of Will  7-2 Have to have some money on him
 Alwaysmining  5-1 odds will go up don't know why they think this
 Bourbon War  6-1 will be ITM
 Owendale  6-1
 Anothertwistafate  10-1 This ones odds are going to go down, I think fam 23-b, buckpasser , but a boomerrang, and storm cat????
 Win Win Win  10-1 The Jaime sleeper, the ones that don't fire in the derby often do in the preakness
 Signalman  15-1
 Laughing Fox  20-1 ? still looking
 Warrior's Charge  20-1 WTF, has won 83k in four starts, but in some races you get paid if your last.
 Bodexpress  30-1, his daddy won me money, his half brother won me money, like the odds, what the hell ITM and win

the handle on this race would go up with MS in it, but the cuts that appeared on his legs three days after the race will keep him out of it, though his trainer said in usa today, that if they had not been DQed they would be there, they need to save him to be horse of the year. Not going to happen if he is not in this race. He won the derby, he just didn't get paid. got to wonder, if the new kinder whips had anything to do with the horse not doing what the jockey told him to do??
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by heavy » Fri May 10, 2019 2:09 pm

What's the line on "Most likely to scratch" and "Most likely to DQ?"
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by jaime1943 » Fri May 10, 2019 3:06 pm

Greetings Raider.

After i see how he ran in the derby [ w3 ] i will decide how munch to bet on him. also i will be looking for other horses with a Iregular race.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Fri May 10, 2019 5:52 pm

Odds on changes in the Derby and/or points system 1:1 Both MS and CH are out of the rest of the TC races now.
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Sun May 12, 2019 3:36 am

updatedd PP, added w3, sueno and mr money out
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by jaime1943 » Tue May 14, 2019 4:18 pm

Greetings Raider,

I could not find any Iregular horses in this race,

The only playable horse i found in the race is OWNDALE, I did not find any longshots SO i will be playing
him to WIN and place. 200 to win AND 200 to place .not to much action in this race.

Did you find any longshots with your points system.? what are they.?

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Tue May 14, 2019 7:05 pm

Adding the KYD to the mix had some intreasting results. Uising the same system as i did in the derby, I landed on Laughing Fox and warriors charge as long shots for the top four. but when I add in the derby, it seems to do good in calling the winner as well. those that have run in the derby have an edge in this race. I don't know if this race sucks or is going to be an upset, with WOW and Improbable going to be the Fav's, but you will love this, W3 does better than both of them to win, he was hauling ass in the end after running a mile.I don't know if I am going to use this one, but Signalman. Not because he gets the points, but because he doesn't. Neither did Oxbow or cloud computing, and those two are the two highest preakness winners
since 91, and both in pts races. I know , I know 2 out of six isn't much, but three out of the other four were the Fav with two of them winning the TC. thats not on the line with either MS or CH out.
Heavy is right, that DQ was a CF, and that is going to leave a bad taste with alot of people, so that handle will be down, the payouts lower, seems like the race is ripe for an upset. Right now I have no idea how I will bet, need the pole postions, which wil not be out until tomorrow.

Owendale? he doesn't hit my radar either. Sticking with the WPS

Oh, here is something intreasting, MS jockey has been suspended for 15 day, its his 20th in the past five years, most of them for not controling his horse. Yes WOW of will was to close to MS, for a second, five strikes, five lenghts. think there is some video we haven't seen yet.
Think I will take a swing at the high five this year, can up my bets to $200 But I never bet the preakness the same way I do the derby, at least not the scale.

the weather is looking good
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Tue May 14, 2019 7:12 pm

https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs ... ension_123

LRt's jockey said that some jockeys need to be "schooled". after reading this article, I will lay 10:1 odds this kid is going to get a horse or a jockey killed, unless he changes.
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Wed May 15, 2019 3:48 pm

Everfast
added to the field
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Wed May 15, 2019 4:57 pm

Post postions and new odds. WOW and improbable are almost in the same spots as the derby
War of Will 4-1 1
Bourbon War 12-1 2
Warrior's Charge 12-1 3
Improbable 5-2 4
Owendale 10-1 5
Market King 30-1 6
Alwaysmining 8-1 7
Signalman 30-1 8
Bodexpress 30-1 9
Everfast 50-1 10
Laughing Fox   20-1 11
Anothertwistafate 6-1 12
Win Win Win 15-1 13
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Thu May 16, 2019 4:25 pm

The points system has changed the derby. For six years running the favorite has won. This year the favorite didn't win, the second favorite did. Only 50 cents separated the two. I think that the trend continues, late money on Improbable changed the odds to make him the favorite.
The points system hasn't changed the Preakness s much. On the derby I used a profile that worked in picking the longshot to be in the top four, and it worked. That method also picked four Long shots that came in the trifecta since the points system and none of the four had run in the derby.

I have gotten deeper into the Preakness than I have in past years. Its always the same, every year I develop new tools to use in handicapping.

Handicapping is something that has changed my approach to craps, especial how and when I track. We all handicap every day. Its just using past facts to predicate the future. If you went to a table and were given the history of every shooters last ten hands, don't know about you, but I would change what I bet on who. So when I track, its more focused

I handicap the TC races, look to see what has occurred in past races, then look at what horses fit with that. Found out that this year that in the Preakness, have run in the derby gives them a strong advantage esp in the win and the extaca.

The Preakness payouts are the worse of the TC. Using a shotgun type bet is not as effective in the Preakness, I pay more attention to the horses and keep the race profile in mind. In the past I have always gone against the favorite, looking over the bets for pts system only, I am down 30 bucks on $550 in action.
Hedging is a fact of life in horse racing. If you box your bets, it is a hedge bet. Hedging does reduce your wins, but it also reduces your losses. My shotgun bet with my longshots did what it was suppose to do, covered the more focused bets. I went with improbable over MS. That didn't work out.

I am going to go with all the four horses that ran in the derby over that same four and alwaysmining, warrior's charge laughing fox and Signalman.
in the exatca, and then a more narrow one, with only W3 and bodepress on top. After that, it will depend on what the odds are and I won't know that until the day of the race.
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by jaime1943 » Sat May 18, 2019 4:00 am

Greetings raider,

Like i told you before, the only horse i see having a chance in this race is owendale

so i will be betting 100 to win AND 100 to place on him.

I see you like my pick in the derby, WIN WIN WIN so i also am playing him. 100 win 100 place.

Goodluck raider. HOW do you handicap your point system.

jaime from puerto rico U.S.A

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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Sat May 18, 2019 6:29 pm

oh well, should have had the ten. But the three did come in the top four. The way I do it is a spin off of the Sartin Methodology. Looking over the sheet, if I had tweeked it, would have had the ten, but since I did say that before hand, oh well, but did get the 3 in the top four, you horse though, took me out, and the ten still ahead, and its on to the belmont.
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jaime1943
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Re: Preakness PP

Post by jaime1943 » Sat May 18, 2019 7:08 pm

Greetings raider,

my horse came in 3rd, not good enough, my other horse came in 7th, bad day at the track again.
You win some AND you lose some.

bel] here we come.

jaime.

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Re: Preakness PP

Post by Raider » Sun May 19, 2019 2:26 am

I thought Lf would do better, but I am happy with one of the two coming in the top four. My head still hurts from the work I put in on the preakness, but I only have to do it once. I think I need to come up for rules for each one of the legs. Going to do the belmont now. I have decided to work all the 1 1/4 races this summer leading up to the BC. I am still up for this year though.
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