NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:58 pm

Parson wrote:
Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:45 pm
Im going to need some parlays in November
Alabama parlays? Or pros?

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Parson » Fri Oct 22, 2021 6:27 am

Pros …. Thats your forte
If your gonna color up, there needs to be paint on the brush.

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:40 am

It's time for Week # 7. There are 6 bye team this week, Russell is on IR and the books have bumped up ARZ to -17.5 to protect themselves from teasers.

After a bit of pondering, I'm putting a stack of pizzas on a 6.5 teaser: BAL -6.5 -->Pk, GB -8.5 --> -2, TB -12.5 --> -6, and NE -7 --> -1/2.
It pays 2 for 1. I could add a fifth leg and get 7 for 2, we'll see, DN8R
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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Fri Oct 22, 2021 10:56 pm

We’ve had some line movement since this morning.... TB now -12, Bal -6, GB -8. So dropped NE and did a three leg teased down 6 for half a stack of pizzas

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Tgold » Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:08 am

Hi DarthNater. I hope your picks are performing as planned.
Any additional parlays or props?
Im not a big prop bettor. However, I do like todays prop : Jalen Hurts throwing <251 . Any thoughts or opinions.

May all your tickets cash out,


"Good teams win, Great teams cover"
All the best,
Tgold

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:50 am

Tgold wrote:
Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:08 am
Hi DarthNater. I hope your picks are performing as planned.
Any additional parlays or props?
Im not a big prop bettor. However, I do like todays prop : Jalen Hurts throwing <251 . Any thoughts or opinions.

May all your tickets cash out,

"Good teams win, Great teams cover"
I was offline most of the day and watched the game in the Sportsbook. I'm not a prop guy as just no time to research it; but that's a pretty good prop, hope you bet it as that game was a beat down.

All of my parlays crashed as BAL got upset, sigh. That broke a nice streak of wins, on to next week, DN8R
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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Tgold » Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:33 pm

Hi DarthN
Congrats on the LV victory yesterday--they certainly looked stealthy.

Yes I wagered the aforementioned Prop: Jalen Hurts <250.5. Nice win.

Like you I dont wager props as my go to bet due to not really having the time (or desire) to research/no personal expertise in that area. I mostly rely on tips and 5***** bets a friend of mine (a serious handicapper) will sometimes forward. He does extremely well on props by mostly looking for the largest perceived bias.

The past few years he says his best ROI by far has been on NFL props(i.e., Int,td,yds,..etc) on all these newbie QBs the media hypes and anoints as the next TB12. His perception is because of the medias' constantly blathering on about how young QBs are "Cerebral, High IQ, Defense-Reading Machines" helps create an image for most fans and the casual punter(Im prob in that category) to perceive theyre performing better than actuality. This allows for huge biases on these prop bets, and IMO Props are mostly ignored by many punters.

For example he says Bears QB Justin Fields has been his breadwinner thus far in 21'season. Although JF has only started 3-4 games he already has 6 Int, yet the over under Prop Interceptions was @ 0.5Int. He took the over(Fields tossed 3 INT, along w 3 fumbles).
Another example was even though JF is avg 105 yds passing per game on the season, his highest gm for the whole season at only 209(vs lions), yet the Props Yds started at 219.5. He took the Under and JF had a grand total of 184 in the 38-3 loss yesterday. Coupled with the fact TBay was likely playing 3rd stringers and anyone from the scout team that wanted in the game, along with a Prevent D late in the game,...etc.

So I do think there may be opportunity in this area of handicapping.


Best of luck to all,
All the best,
Tgold

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Mon Oct 25, 2021 4:48 pm

Tgold wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:33 pm
Hi DarthN
Congrats on the LV victory yesterday--they certainly looked stealthy.

Yes I wagered the aforementioned Prop: Jalen Hurts <250.5. Nice win.

Like you I dont wager props as my go to bet due to not really having the time (or desire) to research/no personal expertise in that area. I mostly rely on tips and 5***** bets a friend of mine (a serious handicapper) will sometimes forward. He does extremely well on props by mostly looking for the largest perceived bias.

The past few years he says his best ROI by far has been on NFL props(i.e., Int,td,yds,..etc) on all these newbie QBs the media hypes and anoints as the next TB12. His perception is because of the medias' constantly blathering on about how young QBs are "Cerebral, High IQ, Defense-Reading Machines" helps create an image for most fans and the casual punter(Im prob in that category) to perceive theyre performing better than actuality. This allows for huge biases on these prop bets, and IMO Props are mostly ignored by many punters.

For example he says Bears QB Justin Fields has been his breadwinner thus far in 21'season. Although JF has only started 3-4 games he already has 6 Int, yet the over under Prop Interceptions was @ 0.5Int. He took the over(Fields tossed 3 INT, along w 3 fumbles).
Another example was even though JF is avg 105 yds passing per game on the season, his highest gm for the whole season at only 209(vs lions), yet the Props Yds started at 219.5. He took the Under and JF had a grand total of 184 in the 38-3 loss yesterday. Coupled with the fact TBay was likely playing 3rd stringers and anyone from the scout team that wanted in the game, along with a Prevent D late in the game,...etc.

So I do think there may be opportunity in this area of handicapping.

Best of luck to all,
I totally agree. That’s a reason TB12 is talking about playing till he’s 50. He has an edge over every QB in the league and that very exploitable over the unproven media darling rookie QBs. I suspect the under hit on every JF prop yesterday, just like it probably did on every Zach Wilson prop yesterday in the rookie QB vs Belichek derby

Sometimes the uninformed sports media is our friend, DN8R
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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Bankerdude80 » Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:27 am

DarthNater wrote:
Mon Oct 25, 2021 12:50 am
All of my parlays crashed as BAL got upset, sigh. That broke a nice streak of wins, on to next week, DN8R
DN8R, sorry your parlays didn't come in.

I managed to sneak some more pizza money.

MGM-Screenshot 2021-10-25 222105.jpg
MGM-Screenshot 2021-10-25 222105.jpg (9.96 KiB) Viewed 921 times
Good luck next week.
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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:22 pm

Bankerdude80 wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:27 am
DN8R, sorry your parlays didn't come in.

I managed to sneak some more pizza money.

Good luck next week.
Nice! Well done! Guess we need to call that the Monsoon Parlay :)

DN8R
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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Tgold » Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:57 am

Bankerdude80--Congrats on nice hit. Do you have any preferences (parlays vs indiv props, double props, other,...etc)??

DarthN-- "...I suspect the under hit on every JF prop yesterday, just like it probably did on every Zach Wilson prop yesterday in the rookie QB vs Belichek derby
Sometimes the uninformed sports media is our friend, DN8R..."


I agree as though Im a novice when it comes to nfl prop bets I do look for opportunities when Bill Bel is going against a young QB. I actually won on the prop for ZachWilson in sun mathchup with pats as he was avg 224 ypg passing and that was approx 5 yds below the overunder--I took the under simply because I think belichick is a great defense schemer. Plus coupled with the fact the jets are historically a dysfunctional franchise with young qb, relatively new coaching staff,...etc/ that often gets amplified when going against organizations such as pats(& belichick).

I think parlay/props can offer punters some opportunities. However, I do try to stick with basic props(such as yds,int,td,...etc) and skip the more radical props such as (what color of gatorade will get poured on winning coach,...etc).

Best of luck this week to everyone/thx again darthN for offering your thoughts/picks.tg
All the best,
Tgold

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:29 am

I've been waiting for most of the props to come out today, though don't expect it to be as juicy as last week.

Meanwhile, something I've been toying with is an underdog teaser. I started thinking about this after I heard Jason McIntire cite that GB was 6-0 without Adams as the line moved from GB+3 to GB +6.5. I'm wondering if it gets to +7 by game time. Then, I could tease it to +14. I'm thinking that Aaron doesn't want to be massacred on Prime time and wants to be the lead story. As for a second leg, there's DAL at -1.5 with everyone waiting for the injury report tomorrow, so grab that and tease it before the report; basically two Thursday events. Only for pizzas though.

We'll see about the rest, more soon, DN8R
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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Thu Oct 28, 2021 4:16 pm

Here’s a few more legs as GB is moving toward 6 this afternoon. I hate to chase, but.....

The other legs for a pizza are: Buf, TB (in Tom we trust), KC, and Dal

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Fri Oct 29, 2021 1:39 pm

Last night's game is the classic illustration about why sports betting can be super challenging as results swing on 2-3 plays. It can be really entertaining to watch the rival factions in the sportsbooks go nuts with each play. it's also empowering and calming when your underdog that you teased up to PLUS 13 has a 10 point lead midway thru the fourth quarter. With four minutes to play and GB leading by 3, they proceeded to fail 7 times to get into the endzone, including a touchdown that would have extended their lead to TEN which was removed due to an instant reply. That same touch down would have also pushed the TOTAL to be OVER 50.5. GB turns it over on downs, scoring zip-ski, and ARZ marches down the field and with 12 seconds left throws an ugly Interception to lose when a field goal would have forced Overtime, and also making the OVER likely to hit in OT. Never has there been a better example for why I don't bet Totals. "Never" as Mike Tomblin recently said.

Frankly, I probably should not have made GB into a five leg teaser, as now I'm thinking I might need to hedge multiple legs to perserve my nice lead, especially given much of the uncertainty with DAL/MIN, we'll see.

Keep those ideas coming and may all your tickets cash, DN8R

PS Jamie - Portland is already 3 here, better look at that moneyline, N8
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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Big O » Fri Oct 29, 2021 2:49 pm

y given much of the uncertainty with DAL/MIN,
injuries always a factor, if Dac doesnt play its a different ball game
"if it was easy anyone could do it"

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Bankerdude80 » Fri Oct 29, 2021 10:27 pm

Tgold wrote:
Wed Oct 27, 2021 10:57 am
Bankerdude80--Congrats on nice hit. Do you have any preferences (parlays vs indiv props, double props, other,...etc)??
Hey Tgold, I am new to sports betting. Learning a bit under the tutelage of DN8R. I'm strictly betting NFL. Mostly straight moneyline bets or multilple team moneyline parlays. Picking winners and losers. I don't want to get to bogged down in betting until I understand lines and their movement better, incorporating hedges, etc. My bankroll for this is small. No props for me for now.

Best of luck to you, may your tickets pay pay pay.

BD
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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Banker_Bro » Sun Oct 31, 2021 11:36 am

DarthN8R:

Love this Sunday's teaser. Went with a six-point version on Buff / TB / KC / Dal at the LAS minimum.

Also, nice hit for BankerDude. Guess he's popping for the Lou Malnati's Pizza today. LOL. I'm following him up with a one unit M?L parlay on the COLTS and SAINTS.....interesting to see a number of favs flip from the opening money lines this week.

Should be a great NFL Sunday.
Best of luck to you.
Cheers.

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Tgold » Sun Oct 31, 2021 12:20 pm

Thx for bets and thougts/Best of luck everyone.

Banker_bro and Bankerdude80 I also like the DarthN8r teaser. However, I did not book that or any parlays.
The only NFL i booked today was my top 2021 moneymaker, aka, Jus Fields (0.5 int),over. Its not a strong opinion, however, Im hesitant to leave a season-long winning streak wagering against JF. I do expect the odds makers and prop analytic gurus to catch up to the early season hyper projections for JF. Jfields will likely be sending me a 1099 at the end of the year,lol.
My top pick in this game is J Garropolo ((207 yds) , over.


"Good teams win, Great teams Cover."
All the best,
Tgold

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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by Bankerdude80 » Sun Oct 31, 2021 2:21 pm

Tgold wrote:
Sun Oct 31, 2021 12:20 pm
The only NFL i booked today was my top 2021 moneymaker, aka, Jus Fields (0.5 int),over.

"Good teams win, Great teams Cover."
Amazing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAKu49GDL7Y
"Take the Money and Run...."
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Re: NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

Post by DarthNater » Sun Oct 31, 2021 10:57 pm

Tgold wrote:
Sun Oct 31, 2021 12:20 pm
Thx for bets and thougts/Best of luck everyone.

Banker_bro and Bankerdude80 I also like the DarthN8r teaser. However, I did not book that or any parlays.
The only NFL I booked today was my top 2021 moneymaker, aka, Jus Fields (0.5 int),over. Its not a strong opinion, however, I'm hesitant to leave a season-long winning streak wagering against JF. I do expect the odds makers and prop analytic gurus to catch up to the early season hyper projections for JF. Jfields will likely be sending me a 1099 at the end of the year, lol.
My top pick in this game is J Garropolo ((207 yds) , over.

"Good teams win, Great teams Cover."
Tgold,
Darksiding JF cashes again!! Well done! Betcha can't wait till next week. Don't forget the Nagy hot seat watch......

My Parlay was alive after Buf covered the net -7. That was a scary first half though, so after Buf locked it up, I dropped an insurance pizza on NO +2.5 +170, looking for the middling with the parlay leg of TB +2.5. Both were winning before Mr. Brady's Pick6, sigh. So, parlay dies, and insurance pizza cashes for a net +123. DAL + 5 woulda cashed - who'da thunk it......and wasted my GB+13, sigh....

DN8R
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