How to Make $1000 a Day Playing Craps

[heavy]

Here's one of those Heavy "classic" articles from the Newsletter Archives. This one goes all the way back to February 2007. I've updated it with some figures from latter years as well. The article? How to Take $1000 a Day Away from the Craps Table.

How to Take $1000 a Day Away from the Craps Table
By Steve “Heavy” Haltom

Well, this one is no secret. Buy in for $2000 and maintain a $1000 loss limit. Stick to your plan and you’re guaranteed to walk from the tables with $1000. Not interested in that approach? Then don’t waste your money on any gambling system or book that promises you you’ll make $1000 a day at the tables.

What does it take to win $1000 a day? Essentially the same betting strategy you’d use to win $100 a day. You just have to increase your bet size ten-fold.

Back in my early years at DI I tracked my average win per session at roughly $37. I played about 300 sessions a year in those days so you can do the math - a little over $11K per year. Suddenly that $37 doesn't sound so much like "chump change," huh?

My standard play back then was to qualify shooters first, then begin with $66 inside. After one hit on any inside number I would regress my bets to $22 inside, leaving just $1 at risk. The second hit was “same bet.” After that I pressed every second or third hit until I hit $110 inside, at which point I would regress to $44 inside and then start pressing again, or convert to come betting and put everything on automatic pilot until the seven showed. Sometimes I scored large wins. Sometimes I hit my loss limit and left early. But when everything was said I averaged a profit of $37 per session, which again, totaled over $11K a year because of the large number of sessions I was able to play.

If I wanted to fight the grind and put in the hours to replicate those early efforts I could play three sessions a day and pretty much be assured of winning $250 a day plus today. Back in the Summer of 2010 I played every day and averaged $160 a day, just grinding it out. I essentially made the same plays as before, but with larger bets. Instead of $66 inside regressing to $22 inside, my play was closer to $220 inside on the first hit, regress to $88 inside for a second hit, then down to $44 inside. From there it was take and press every other hit. I took a little more risk looking for a second hit but I was selective about which shooter's I'd add that step in on. On others I'd regress direct to $44 or just come down completely after one hit, while I was more aggressive when I was the shooter.

With these thoughts in mind, let’s take my typical betting strategies from those days and see what it would take to push my take home up to $1000 per day, all other things being equal.

In order to turn that into $370 per session while playing the same strategy I would have to begin my play by spreading $660 inside. The first hit on any number would pay $210. Regress to $220 inside and you’re off to the races. Of course, playing at higher levels can be a bit unnerving. On the other hand, it also opens up options you don’t have when playing at lower levels. You could, for example, take one hit at $660 inside and regress to $160 across - not only locking up a $50 guarantee for the hand, but adding a couple of additional numbers to the spread you can collect on. You’ll have a hard time taking that steep of a regression when starting at $66 inside.

Let’s say you’re an Advantage Player taking a full Kelly approach craps. You determine that you have a 1.32% positive expectation per decision (toss), and you have a total bankroll of $50,000. Your average bet will be approximately 1.2% of your total bankroll, or $660. Funny how that amount keeps coming up. You limit your wagers to your own toss, since that’s where you have your advantage. And since you have an AP mindset you never regress or press your bets. Once placed they stay placed. Theoretically, taking that approach one could expect to win $1000 in around 115 tosses of the dice - or about two hours play on a private table.

This, by the way, is why the AP crowd tells us that if we have SRR’s of 7 or higher we should all be making millions at the tables. In their version of Perfect World Casino that is how things work.

How do I play these days? My strategy falls somewhere in the middle. I may start out with a full Kelly wager, then regress to a fractal Kelly after a few hits. After that I press my bets back up to what I’ll call a high fractal Kelly. In short, I still regress. I still press. And if I see signs that my toss is turning on me I still turn my bets off.

How do you win $1000 a day at casino craps? Begin by learning how not to lose $1000 a day at casino craps. Once you master that part of the game you’ll be well on your way.

[Merlin]

Sage advice from the Zen Master.

Thank you.