Okay, boys and girls, this is my third and final post for those of you who are facing the end of the year and have not posted one single time on the forum all year. The end of the year is coming up fast, so I'm posting this thread as a reminder that there IS a membership requirement here on the forum if you want to CONTINUE to have a complimentary membership every year. You are required to log onto the forum and participate by posting at least a couple of times a year. The forum’s software tracks every time you log onto the forum, including the date and time, and logs what you post and when. I scan through the member rolls and determine who has and has not met the posting participation requirement at the end of the year and set the necessary limits on the member sweep. Then at some point in January, I'll push the button and those who have not posted in the last year will be members 86'd. We'll play the Fishing Song. "I'm gonna miss her, hey! I've got a bite." And we'll welcome you back if you want to re-register for another $12. But if you go all year next year without posting we'll delete you again and you can pay another $12. Suddenly, it's like you have a Subscription.
To make it easier for to post I've given you an easy subject. Just post all of the reasons you don't play the Don'ts. Don't give me just ONE. The question was ALL of the ReasonS with an "S" on the end of it. As in PLURAL. Make a list and post them. And BE PREPARED to DEFEND YOUR LIST. Yes, we do have a couple of Don't players on the forum who may want to discuss your answers, so put your big boy drawers on and sit down at your Commodore 64 and post. Now. It's never been so easy.
heavy
All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don'ts - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don'ts - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don's - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
But I do play the don'ts. Just not on known shooters
I'm going where ever Bonetracker takes me.
-
Dice Flinger
- Posts: 25
- Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:40 pm
Re: All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don's - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
Reasons I do not play the don'ts, but am learning how to play.
1) Slow Grind- When you only get to the casino once/twice a year. You like to win more for time at table.
2)Did not understand lay bets and how they worked.
3)How to bet,
Read the shooter. Are they a po/ppo shooter or DI
or be more like $5Bill and bet mostly on my own shooting.
1) Slow Grind- When you only get to the casino once/twice a year. You like to win more for time at table.
2)Did not understand lay bets and how they worked.
3)How to bet,
Read the shooter. Are they a po/ppo shooter or DI
or be more like $5Bill and bet mostly on my own shooting.
-
mbasile777
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:58 pm
Re: All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don's - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
Well, it seems like the majority of the energy on come outs is biased towards 7 or 11. Very easy to be bled dry on come outs if I'm playing the DP. There is a 22.4% chance of getting knocked off. Too rich for my blood. At the same time, I don't play the PL either (unless it's my roll).
HOWEVER, I do utilize a don't strategy after the come out. In my 5 years of serious craps in which I approach the table like a business, if I'm not taking advantage of the 3 most powerful numbers (6, 7, & 8) in my betting strategy, there is NO way I can be a winner over the long term.
I've also included regression into the definition of a don't strategy. Nothing wrong with taking a small profit. If it's a hot roll, I'll bet heavy on a dominant number after regressing to earn a profit regardless if dominant number bet loses or not.
Another don't philosophy I've started to incorporate: Is it really "table money?" Or, is it a lost opportunity to make it "Binky money?" What's the worst that can happen if I turn my bets off for an energy change event? Miss one hit vs. lose all my bets on the table? Turning off bets is now a don't strategy also for me.
"You can't lose what you don't put in the middle" - Mike McDermott/Rounders
Mike aka WuTang aka Binky
HOWEVER, I do utilize a don't strategy after the come out. In my 5 years of serious craps in which I approach the table like a business, if I'm not taking advantage of the 3 most powerful numbers (6, 7, & 8) in my betting strategy, there is NO way I can be a winner over the long term.
I've also included regression into the definition of a don't strategy. Nothing wrong with taking a small profit. If it's a hot roll, I'll bet heavy on a dominant number after regressing to earn a profit regardless if dominant number bet loses or not.
Another don't philosophy I've started to incorporate: Is it really "table money?" Or, is it a lost opportunity to make it "Binky money?" What's the worst that can happen if I turn my bets off for an energy change event? Miss one hit vs. lose all my bets on the table? Turning off bets is now a don't strategy also for me.
"You can't lose what you don't put in the middle" - Mike McDermott/Rounders
Mike aka WuTang aka Binky
Re: All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don's - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
DiceFlinger said:
The Don'ts are a Slow Grind and players who only get to the casino a couple of times a year like to win more for the amount of time they have to spend at the table:
I get it. Totally. But that's exactly why players who only get to the casino a couple of times a year are often what I call "Sucked and Shucked" by the tables. They're sucked in by high odds and exotic bets and shucked of their bankroll before they know what hit them. Meanwhile, the old "safe harbors" on the table are like the three best bets - the Six, Eight, and Seven. That's like going to the Stock Market and buying stock in Walmart, Verizon, and Johnson & Johnson. You may make a few bucks, you may lose a few bucks, but you're not going to lose all of your capital if you play it right and odds are you're going to profit. So your betting strategy should include strategies that capitalize on those numbers. And if you're a DI, when you're shooting you should add your dominant number for whichever set you're using to the mix as well. And like any good investor in the market, if a stock is not performing for you, liquidate it and move into another safe harbor in the portfolio. Give me some of that Dollar General stock. That SOB is growing like a virus. So you bet the Right Side, the Six and Eight and your Dominant Number when you're shooting and on Qualified Shooters. You bet the Don'ts on non-qualified shooters. You follow the table trend if our Qualified Shooters suddenly suck. But if you play the ENTIRE game you improve your chances of winning MORE over the long run. Just my humble opinion but I'm sticking to it.
Don't Understand Lay Bets and How They Work:
Ah, yes. The dreaded Lay Bet. There is SO much confusion on Lay Bets and how they work. So let's just flip a coin and look at the RIGHT side of the game for a minute. Let's talk about BUY bets. You can BUY the Four and Ten at $20 for a 5% commission of $1 and for that fee you'll be paid 2 to 1 on the bet instead of being paid 9 to 5 like you'd be paid on a $20 Place Bet. So you'd be paid net $19 instead of $18 on the Place bet. It's a hell of a deal. Better still, the casinos, as a courtesy to Green Chip bettors, will let you Buy the Four and Ten for $25 and pay just a $1 Commission and get paid $50 for $1. Now file those two number in the back of your head because a LAY bet is the flip side of a Buy Bet. You're paying a commission to the casino for the right to be paid the correct odds of the Seven shows before the Lay number repeats. It's the OPPOSITE of a Buy bet. So you can Lay $41 No Four or Ten and be paid $20 if the Seven rolls before the Four or Ten. You can Lay $51 no Four or Ten and be paid $25. So there's the basic concept. You can Lay any number on a standard layout. The standard Lay bet is an amount that will win $20 or multiple of $20. So we'll just talk in terms of $20 wins. On the Five or Nine you have to lay $31 to win $20 - the $1 is the commission - so the bet is Lay the Five or Nine for $31. The Six or Eight is Lay the Six and Eight for $25. $1 of that is commission. There is no correct Right Side bet that pays 20 on the Six or Eight so you have an odd amount, $24 on the Lay here. It's $24 plus the $1 Commission - or $25 No Six or Eight. Since we rarely Lay the Six or Eight this one rarely comes into play.
How to bet. Read the shooter. Are they a po/ppo shooter or DI, or be more like $5Bill and bet mostly on my own shooting.
I'm of the opinion that if you're a DI you should practice enough and hone your skills to the point that you have confidence in your skills to bet much more on your own hands than you do on others. If you're betting an $18 Six and Eight on everyone else who touches the dice, why would you bet an $18 Six and Eight on your own hands? Why not bet a $90 Six and Eight? Why not $42? There must be some number bigger than what you bet on Randy that works for you? Show some confidence in yourself.
I'm a firm believer in charting both the shooter and the table trend. I look at every shooter and I track whether he's a PSO shooter, a short hand shooter, or a mid-range hand shooter, a DI or a "natural" shooter, or a Don't player shoots from the Don'ts. All of these things go into my decisions on how to bet his hand. In many cases I'll bet One Hit - Can't Miss on them. Some shooters - I'll simply play the Don'ts. Others, I get on right from the start and ride to the bitter end. But how I start out depends on past results initially. I can transition to the right side or the dark side in a heartbeat, based on the ebb and flow of the table, simply by tracking the average length of the hands and watching what numbers are being thrown. If the table has a "brick wall" out at six to eight rolls and it's generating nothing but trash numbers - I'm going to bet the Don'ts and maybe some Field/Horn parlays and get off with a quick profit on each player - and I HATE the freaking Field. But take a $15 Field win and parlay it to a $30 Horn High Ace Deuce and have it hit and you're kind of in fat city.
As my buddy Ed Robinson says, Practice like you play - play like you practice. It's amazing how well that shit works.
These are great comments and ones that merit some answers. Let's start at the top:Reasons I do not play the don'ts, but am learning how to play.
1) Slow Grind- When you only get to the casino once/twice a year. You like to win more for time at table.
2)Did not understand lay bets and how they worked.
3)How to bet,
Read the shooter. Are they a po/ppo shooter or DI
or be more like $5Bill and bet mostly on my own shooting.
The Don'ts are a Slow Grind and players who only get to the casino a couple of times a year like to win more for the amount of time they have to spend at the table:
I get it. Totally. But that's exactly why players who only get to the casino a couple of times a year are often what I call "Sucked and Shucked" by the tables. They're sucked in by high odds and exotic bets and shucked of their bankroll before they know what hit them. Meanwhile, the old "safe harbors" on the table are like the three best bets - the Six, Eight, and Seven. That's like going to the Stock Market and buying stock in Walmart, Verizon, and Johnson & Johnson. You may make a few bucks, you may lose a few bucks, but you're not going to lose all of your capital if you play it right and odds are you're going to profit. So your betting strategy should include strategies that capitalize on those numbers. And if you're a DI, when you're shooting you should add your dominant number for whichever set you're using to the mix as well. And like any good investor in the market, if a stock is not performing for you, liquidate it and move into another safe harbor in the portfolio. Give me some of that Dollar General stock. That SOB is growing like a virus. So you bet the Right Side, the Six and Eight and your Dominant Number when you're shooting and on Qualified Shooters. You bet the Don'ts on non-qualified shooters. You follow the table trend if our Qualified Shooters suddenly suck. But if you play the ENTIRE game you improve your chances of winning MORE over the long run. Just my humble opinion but I'm sticking to it.
Don't Understand Lay Bets and How They Work:
Ah, yes. The dreaded Lay Bet. There is SO much confusion on Lay Bets and how they work. So let's just flip a coin and look at the RIGHT side of the game for a minute. Let's talk about BUY bets. You can BUY the Four and Ten at $20 for a 5% commission of $1 and for that fee you'll be paid 2 to 1 on the bet instead of being paid 9 to 5 like you'd be paid on a $20 Place Bet. So you'd be paid net $19 instead of $18 on the Place bet. It's a hell of a deal. Better still, the casinos, as a courtesy to Green Chip bettors, will let you Buy the Four and Ten for $25 and pay just a $1 Commission and get paid $50 for $1. Now file those two number in the back of your head because a LAY bet is the flip side of a Buy Bet. You're paying a commission to the casino for the right to be paid the correct odds of the Seven shows before the Lay number repeats. It's the OPPOSITE of a Buy bet. So you can Lay $41 No Four or Ten and be paid $20 if the Seven rolls before the Four or Ten. You can Lay $51 no Four or Ten and be paid $25. So there's the basic concept. You can Lay any number on a standard layout. The standard Lay bet is an amount that will win $20 or multiple of $20. So we'll just talk in terms of $20 wins. On the Five or Nine you have to lay $31 to win $20 - the $1 is the commission - so the bet is Lay the Five or Nine for $31. The Six or Eight is Lay the Six and Eight for $25. $1 of that is commission. There is no correct Right Side bet that pays 20 on the Six or Eight so you have an odd amount, $24 on the Lay here. It's $24 plus the $1 Commission - or $25 No Six or Eight. Since we rarely Lay the Six or Eight this one rarely comes into play.
How to bet. Read the shooter. Are they a po/ppo shooter or DI, or be more like $5Bill and bet mostly on my own shooting.
I'm of the opinion that if you're a DI you should practice enough and hone your skills to the point that you have confidence in your skills to bet much more on your own hands than you do on others. If you're betting an $18 Six and Eight on everyone else who touches the dice, why would you bet an $18 Six and Eight on your own hands? Why not bet a $90 Six and Eight? Why not $42? There must be some number bigger than what you bet on Randy that works for you? Show some confidence in yourself.
I'm a firm believer in charting both the shooter and the table trend. I look at every shooter and I track whether he's a PSO shooter, a short hand shooter, or a mid-range hand shooter, a DI or a "natural" shooter, or a Don't player shoots from the Don'ts. All of these things go into my decisions on how to bet his hand. In many cases I'll bet One Hit - Can't Miss on them. Some shooters - I'll simply play the Don'ts. Others, I get on right from the start and ride to the bitter end. But how I start out depends on past results initially. I can transition to the right side or the dark side in a heartbeat, based on the ebb and flow of the table, simply by tracking the average length of the hands and watching what numbers are being thrown. If the table has a "brick wall" out at six to eight rolls and it's generating nothing but trash numbers - I'm going to bet the Don'ts and maybe some Field/Horn parlays and get off with a quick profit on each player - and I HATE the freaking Field. But take a $15 Field win and parlay it to a $30 Horn High Ace Deuce and have it hit and you're kind of in fat city.
As my buddy Ed Robinson says, Practice like you play - play like you practice. It's amazing how well that shit works.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don'ts - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
I was exclusively a rightside bettor, but did not practice enough and mostly lost. Watched the darkside and started to play. Some other great darksiders have been here starting with Professor H and Dave in Joliet. The only guy I ever heard of being banned because he won too much playing the darkside in Joliet. Read and learn. Try the darkside when the table gets cold. You might be surprised.
Golfer
Golfer
Re: All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don'ts - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
Ah, yes. Both Professor H's and Dave's betting strategies exist somewhere in the forum archives. Good luck finding them. The Search Engine here is one of the weak points of out software. I'm well aware of it. LOL.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don'ts - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
I found one of Professor H’s threads on Heavy’s Axis Power Craps Forum Threads.
I’ll post the thread to it so you can read it.
Professor H's don't pass progression
https://axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/v ... 5&start=20
AND
Here is Dave's System Thread
https://axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/v ... affe84eec8
$5Bill
I’ll post the thread to it so you can read it.
Professor H's don't pass progression
https://axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/v ... 5&start=20
AND
Here is Dave's System Thread
https://axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/v ... affe84eec8
$5Bill
Re: All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don'ts - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
Just read Memo's recent Ft. Lauderdale post. There are many dollars worth of reasons on why to play the Don'ts listed there.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: All of the Reasons I Don't Play the Don'ts - Softball Thread for End of Year Last Minute Posters
Reasons why I Haven't, Do not, or am reluctant about playing the don'ts..(still)
First off learning how to make a 41 dollar no 4, or no 9, etc., is not enough.
I need to understand the ramifications of making that bet in light of how it affects my other bets. Frequency and risk to expect. Best timing to make it. Is it a hedge, am I using it to set something else up...or why would I want to make it in the first place. If I win the bet, or lose it for that matter...What impact on everything else....yada, yada. On the right side, I can do that without even thinking.
Say what you want about strategies. My ISR is a strategy. Pressing from 18 to 42 dollars on a hit, is a betting strategy.
I have been studying strategies since my first introduction to craps....Just, have not, for the don't side. Until lately. Hybrid strategies..I have fond that studying, then practicing, and then using at the casino to be a great help. Just doing a 41 dollar no 10 didn't get it for me. And 'Dave's' system was too much of a leap.
Secondly..I am a DI and I shoot primarily to avoid the seven. That means I am usually next to the dealer, which makes any type of don't bet very visible to table. Even though most of my Don't bets are a hedge, looking for a longer do side hand, I am pretty uncomfortable being exposed like that..This is especially true in a new environment like the one that Heavy alluded to above..
Memo
First off learning how to make a 41 dollar no 4, or no 9, etc., is not enough.
I need to understand the ramifications of making that bet in light of how it affects my other bets. Frequency and risk to expect. Best timing to make it. Is it a hedge, am I using it to set something else up...or why would I want to make it in the first place. If I win the bet, or lose it for that matter...What impact on everything else....yada, yada. On the right side, I can do that without even thinking.
Say what you want about strategies. My ISR is a strategy. Pressing from 18 to 42 dollars on a hit, is a betting strategy.
I have been studying strategies since my first introduction to craps....Just, have not, for the don't side. Until lately. Hybrid strategies..I have fond that studying, then practicing, and then using at the casino to be a great help. Just doing a 41 dollar no 10 didn't get it for me. And 'Dave's' system was too much of a leap.
Secondly..I am a DI and I shoot primarily to avoid the seven. That means I am usually next to the dealer, which makes any type of don't bet very visible to table. Even though most of my Don't bets are a hedge, looking for a longer do side hand, I am pretty uncomfortable being exposed like that..This is especially true in a new environment like the one that Heavy alluded to above..
Memo