P,C,C, w 2x Odds w6/8 PosProgression.

[Tgold]

P,C,C, w 2x Odds w6/8 PosProgression.

I call it the:
$430 Risk/ Press like crazy method. Although it is a little more methodical and systematic then it may initially appear on the surface. My first thoughts after initially skimming through it was: “toomanybetstoomanybetstoomanybets”.


This is an approach utilized by a Dier that is a 6/8 machine. He was OK with me posting this on the forum. I thought I would share and see if we can improve it(Or at least trade ideas on what we would do differently). Of course, like many approaches we discuss on the forum. Once we start tweaking this or that it will no longer be the (PCCw2xOddsW6/8PosPro).

This approach isn’t really unique in that many similar methods have been around for many decades with a few slightly different twists/turns. I look forward to your ideas (& which parts you would concur with or refute). Let me know if anything needs clarified. Thx in advance.

*I have witnessed the originating Dier make 13K+ once and $4K—7k several times from a $430 buy in. According to him and fellow crapsters he once made over $20K in a session. I have no reason to not believe him (or others). He is not the type of guy with any desire or need to fabricate big wins. He often reminds us of the many days when he departs (-430). He has a home table and practices continuously on how to hit more 6/8s. He once hit something like 14 8s and 11 6s in a session(or vice versa).

I have seen him lose $430(his risk) dozens of times and many session where he maybe didn’t lose all $430 but drawdown a couple hundred (or up $200 or so) and never became significantly positive, and finally called it for the day.

**I do not typically play this way (or anything similar) though I have used it a few times with moderate success. I simply prefer an approach with less Variance. Like any predetermined approach it has its strengths/weaknesses.

***When he first showed it to me I had a mostly negative opinion. However, after running it through a few sims I discovered a couple attributes that weren’t initially apparent(or not to me). I will touch on that at the end.

****NOTE: On his really big wins he will sometimes(after a net of 2.5—3x) his buyin he will start alternating: Collect, full press, collect, full press on 6/8 as well as Line bets(On the line bet ODDS at this latter-hand stage he keeps odds at previous amount due to usually being at table max for the line as well as sometimes on odds too). He acknowledges this stage is very seldom reached. On one really large win he had collected several times at Tmax w odds, and then with odds/place bets “notworking” caught the hand-ending 7, and brought all wagers(less the 2 lower line bets) back to the rack.


BASIC STRATEGY:
$430 Risk(buyin) and he will only lose a max of <=$430 per day. This will generally give one approx 6-10 tries per buyin. One can add (0s) for larger buyins but keep ratios the same(e.g., 860BuyIn simply double other wagers,…etc).

P, C,C with max of three line bets along with always 6/8, unless P, or C1, or C2 travel to 6 and or 8 then respective 6or8 is brought down, (along with $14 IF working) after it was hit by a traveling P,C1, or C2.

On any P traveling(regardless if initially or latter traveling upon a point being hit) will always trigger “NOTWORKING” meaning (zero) odds /zero 6/8 bets (obviously this excludes any line bets already traveled). So odds/68 always notworking on the P traveling.
IF the line bet is a (Come) bet traveling then all odds/68 Working.

Starting Bet Sizes:

Line bets start at $10 and all line bets take 2x odds once they have traveled. If a line bet wins then said line increases (10: 15,25,40,60,….etc to infinity) as it comes back through. Reminder odds are always 2x. Line bets only increase if they just won on a number being brought back
6/8 start at $12 and are only raised once >=2of3 Line Bets have increased to >=$25 .

Any (P,C,C) win on an (11) continues at same level(e.g., $15 C catches an 11, it continues on next toss as =$15).

Any (P,C,C) loss on a (2,3,12) is reduced to next lower increment to >=$10), and continues on next toss(e.g., $15 C catches a 3, it would reduce to $10 and continue on next toss/ odds would be 2x odds=$20, instead of what would have been $30 odds had the $15 C not been clipped).

Example: 5,6,11,9,8,4,5,6,3,10,7

Comeout: $10 Pass line with no other wagers
5: Take 2x odds=$20, and now place 6/8 for $12 each. Put $10 in Come chute WORKING since it is a Come, and not a traveling Pass.
6: Collect $14/bring $12 6 back to rack, and take 2x odds. Put $10 in Come chute
11: Collect $10 on traveling Come and leave at $10 for next roll.
9: Take 2x odds. No Come bet as we now have 3 line bets w 2x odds(5,6,9) and a $12 Place8.
8: Collect $14 and leave the $12 Place8 as is( No additional come bets as already have 3 line bets:569)
4: Do nothing
5: Passline wins(Collect $10 from line bet/$30 from the $20odds). Put $15 in the Pass chute. Everything is OFF(not working) since it is the Pass (unlike if it was a Come).
6: Collect $10 from the previously traveled come/bring that just-won $10come back to rack, along with the previously used $20 odds as they were NOT working. Take 2x odds on that $15 Pass that just traveled to the 6. We now put $10 in Come chute(as line bet only increases if the Line/Odds just paid). In this case the Odds were OFF.
3:Our $10 Line bet lost. Replace with $10 in Come chute.
10: Take 2x odds on that just-traveled $Come @ $10.
7: The three line bets with odds along with the Place8 loses.

The attributes:
1. It builds upward on wins/starts self generating and self populating future bets around the 5-7th toss. For example a hit on the 6 or 8 on that second toss(collect $14) feeds that upcoming $10 Come wager/ helps pay for the 2x odds on the just-traveled Line bet.

2. After one hit on a Line/2x odds(e.g., $10/30payout) bet that very next line bet @$15 has been paid for along with most of the odds amount that will immediately follow.

3. The most wagers one will have is five and often because of Line bets traveling to the 6/8 this (five wagers) will be reduced to four or often three total wagers near the end of the roll. So often the 6/8 have paid First, then a line bet follows (from proceeds) and will sometimes catch the hand-ending 7 as its coming back through. If it was a Pass then all odds/place bets were off.

4. It has a definitive stop loss($430). One must view this highly-volatile approach as (I may lose two-three or several ($430Buyins) before I tag them for >=$2k—5K wins.


5. An attribute I didn’t initially see is that when the Pass is coming back through all Place bets as well as all Odds are NOTWORKING. At that stage only the two previous line bets are active and the current-traveling-line wager is often >50% of the aforementioned active line bets. Here is the kicker: All odds are off. So what happens is that IF big red shows after a lengthy hand of say 16-24 tosses one gets to take all pressed-up odds back to the rack(along with any pressed-up Place bets too). This really alters the NET+ toward the player.
If we exclude this attribute I"m not sure its much different than any other PressLikeCrazy Positive Progression.


NEMESIS:
1. Too many wagers
2. One must hit 6/8s and or repeaters.
3. One must reach that 6th-8th toss range to approach break-even or profit stage.
4. Very volatile and requires some heavily loaded 6/8 hands with at least 2-3 repeating points/line wagers.

Im not an advocate (or opponent) for this type of wagering regime. Many of you may already play successfully with a similar approach. I just thought it would be something to ponder.

What would you change?
What do you like and or dislike?

Thx for your thoughts.

[heavy]

Years ago one of the old craps writers, I believe it was Winkless, undertook a computer analysis of thousands of in casino rolls to determine what the best strategy for craps was. What he determined (in his and his computer's opinion based on his book of rolls) was Pass Line with max odds. Place the Six and Eight. Continuous Come Bets with Max Odds. Come Bets replace Six and Eight Place Bets with payoffs on the Place Bets initially funding the Odds Bets on the Six and Eight Come Bets. Keep pushing out Come Bets with Max Odds until the Seven shows. That was it. The whole thing. Ultimate volatility. Volatility can be good or bad, depending on whether or not you can produce the numbers to support it in a positive way. If I were at a table full of know DI's (that I hand picked - guys I play with regularly and whose dominant numbers I knew well) and I wanted to experiment with a strategy like this - I might give it a shot. But I'd want a substantial bankroll to give it a fair trial because a negative run would wipe you out in a heartbeat. I recall my early days of playing in Vegas when I took a similar strategy to the tables thinking it was going to be the key to riches. Instead, it was the key to turing a three day weekend into a one day disaster. It happens.

[Tgold]

Thx for comments.
I've received several emails with questions concerning two parts of the original post.

A) "...3. The most wagers one will have is five and often because of Line bets traveling to the 6/8 this (five wagers) will be reduced to four or often three total wagers near the end of the roll. So often the 6/8 have paid First, then a line bet follows (from proceeds) and will sometimes catch the hand-ending 7 as its coming back through. If it was a Pass then all odds/place bets were off.
.."
If at any stage of shooters hand when a 7 shows on a PASSLINE coming back through after hitting the point THEN all odds/6&8 wagers are OFF. Everything is brought down and it is just like the shooters very first toss(after previous shooters hand-ending 7 out). So everything would start back at a $10 Passline bet only. Then after that next point set (2x odds), 6/8 @ $12 each, and $10 in the come chute.

B) "... 4. It has a definitive stop loss($430). One must view this highly-volatile approach as (I may lose two-three or several ($430Buyins) before I tag them for >=$2k—5K wins. ..."

One only loses a single ($430) per day. After each turn with the dice he settles up as net+ or - with his allotment of $430 for this method. For example one tosses 10 rolls and 430Buyin is now 530. He would parse out $100 to the side and only use $430 the remainder of that day. Lets say a few hands later his 430 is drawn down to 330(-100) and he decides to go eat lunch, comeback tomorrow,...etc. His next buyin is $330(i.e., He doesnt pad back up to initial $430). He plays it down to where he can no longer make the required initial bets.

I played with him several times this past week. He said many times he will play several hours and after each hand he may have only added a couple hundred or drawn down a little. This seesaw keeps going on and he may finish the day with his $430 still intact for the next day. He may be NET+ of only +$650 for the day, from several individual hand wins of say +100-200.

*He also noted the reason for the $430 is that is what his data(on his shooting) suggests is optimum to determine if his shooting is performing as expected. He said if its not happening in his first few attempts it typically doesnt suddenly change later in the day. So no benefit to trying larger amounts for longer sessions. He generally plays 5-7 hours per day. He mostly wagers on himself with this method.

I hope this answers the inquiries.
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Heavy up above: "...I believe it was Winkless, undertook a computer analysis of thousands of in casino rolls to determine what the best strategy for craps was. What he determined (in his and his computer's opinion based on his book of rolls) was Pass Line with max odds. Place the Six and Eight. Continuous Come Bets with Max Odds. Come Bets replace Six and Eight Place Bets with payoffs on the Place Bets initially funding the Odds Bets on the Six and Eight Come Bets. Keep pushing out Come Bets with Max Odds until the Seven shows. That was it. The whole thing. Ultimate volatility. Volatility can be good or bad, depending on whether or not you can produce the numbers to support it in a positive way...."

Thx for your comments Heavy.
I agree with "Winkless" in the findings from his study. I'm guessing Winkless ran his study continuously nonstop including every shooter and every toss of the dice consecutively. I havent seen it but have computed similar studies. That is indeed a very low H.E. way to play(If that is ones objective: How can I play the very lowest edge method at craps).
I cant fathom tying to endure every shooter for every toss of the dice with continuous wagers from beginning to end. The Variance affect on ones buyin would be difficult to overcome.

However, it is my opinion that sometimes one may play a low H.E. approach(though not the lowest) and may yet have a higher ROI overall or at least "within session"). My preference would be to Buy a a couple numbers and "maybe" place the 6/8 if one absolutely had to wager several bets. As we all know buying the 4/10 is a slightly higher H.E. (1.19%) and only (~~0.42% per bet made). I believe that is correct when bet is "on Win only". That's not a bad deal IMO.

So Winkless" approach could indeed enjoy a slightly lower H.E.. Though I would enjoy getting paid the very first time my 4 or 10 was hit vs the P/odds needing to hit it twice (for its first payout), with the Winkless example. Plus maybe the shooter has an advantage shooting for 4/10.

Obviously, Winkless could point out weaknesses in my BUY example too(where his P/odds would perform better). I agree my example isn't exactly comparing apples to apples. I guess it ultimately is a function of how a person chooses to attack the game. Again, nothing against Winkless research as I'm sure it was a valid study.

cheers, tg