Critique My Simple Don't Strategy

[lucky13]

Hi all! I consider myself a very amateur craps player. I think I know the game fairly well & understand the bets, but in my limited playing time in the past I've usually only played PL with odds & some occasional place bets.

I've recently started flirting with the dark side & stumbled upon (saw it listed on a different forum) a strategy that seems to be working, at least on electronic free games.

I start with $200. I stop when I've lost the $200 or when I make it to $300. I'd appreciate any comments/suggestions you have for me.

1) Start with a $5 DP bet.
2) Follow with a $5 DC.
3) Another $5 DC.

Once I have 3 separate don't numbers established, I put $12 odds behind each one. Then I proceed to keep making $5 DC bets, immediately putting $12 odds behind them when they are moved to a number.


Any ways you guys would recommend to improve this system? Throughout my very limited trials (about 500 attempts), I make it to my $300 goal ~75-80% of the time. I know I will likely experience different results in a real life casino money game, just looking for some advice before I go live.

Thanks!

[heavy]

I'd start with a $10 DP. Once that's established follow with a $5 DC. You have the same $15 up and working but your second bet was hedged against the seven. Second roll seven makes you $5 this way. Second rolls seven breaks even your way. Having two numbers up instead of three reduces your spread - fewer numbers exposed to the seven. Now, I will violate the Dice Doctor rules as far as odds are concerned. $12 odds is fine. If I got knocked off one of my numbers then I'd probably increase the odds on the remaining number to $30 in a "get back" move. Yeah, that's chasing a bit, but that's me. I do think $200 is a little light on the bankroll side for this play - or your play. At this level you should probably be buying in for $500 with a $250 - $300 loss limit.

[lucky13]

Ok, I get what you're saying with those points. (Except maybe the BR/loss limit part. How is a $500 BR-$250 loss limit different than just a straight $250 BR being ok to lose it all? Don't you have $250 at risk either way?)

I'm just getting ready for a mid-August Vegas trip & it's looking like my BR is going to be $200/session, $250 max. I'm not looking for any huge wins, hence my "goal" of being up $100 in my example above. I'd like to be able to play awhile, also (if I don't win first, obviously!).

Are there any other strategies you could point me to that would fit what I'm looking for, while still fitting within my BR?

Thanks again.

[bobthetree]

The thing about loss limits vs just buying in with what you were comfortable losing didn't make sense to me either at first. After giving it a fair shake over 10+ sessions last time out, I get it now. It allows you to leave the table not feeling so crushed. Being able to pull the plug with half or so of your buy-in in tact can go a long way towards how you feel about your sessions as well as building some discipline into your game. It all sounds like hokey pokey at first, but give it a shot.

Our friend on here Wizard recommends getting one extra buy-ins worth of your loss limit basically and using it as same money. So if you want to play 5 sessions with $200, try bringing $1200 instead of $1000 and then buying in for $400 at 5 sessions with a $200 loss limit. A good trick if you have a room and a safe is to use the envelope money management system Heavy has talked about several times, have you run across that one yet?

One thing I would add to almost any darksider strategy is the Dice Doctors one loss per shooter rule. If all your bets get picked off, don't replace them or start over after the point is made. Just hang out and wait till the next shooter is ready to shoot. Technically it might not do much from a strict random game, math perspective, but it can keep you from getting slaughtered by that days hot roll, just a thought.

[lucky13]

Thanks for that explanation, I could see how that could help. I have not come across the envelope system. Does it have to do with splitting your session buy-ins each into their own envelope or something? & I have seen the advice to not let 1 shooter wallop you, & I plan on using it

A couple other minor questions I have - For the method I described above, should I just get all nickel chips when buying in, then just throw 15 out & get change every time I place my odds? Is it not common to just get like 10 1's to start?

What's the standard for placing DC odds bets? Do I just put them down like a place bet & tell the dealer what I want?

[wudged]

lucky13, here are a few posts about the envelope system -

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1556&p=20211&hilit=envelope#p20211
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1550&p=19026&hilit=envelope#p19026

If you are buying in with $200, typically the dealer will give you 4 greens and a stack (20) of reds. You can also specify 5 or 10 white if you like.

Anytime you don't have the proper chips to make the bet you want, you can either throw out extra and state your bet ("lay $12 on the 5") and the dealer will give back change, or you can just drop a red on the felt and ask for "check change."

If you are playing DC and want odds as soon as the point is established, most dealers will know what you want if you just drop your chips in the come box after the roll. To make sure the dealer knows, you can also say "lay 12." With your strategy, you will want to drop either $24, 5 reds, or just a green and say "lay 12 each on 4 and 5." If you drop $25, the dealer will toss a white chip in front of you on the layout and setup the $12 lay on each number.

For don't pass odds, you place that yourself. The dealers will fix it for you, but typically the flat portion goes closest to the stick and the lay portion goes closest to the base dealer.. unless you have a flat and a lay that will pay the same amount (for example a $5 flat with $6 odds on a 6/8) at which point the chips would be "bridged" (2 red chips next to each other, with a white chip spanning both of them) Since you're planning on $5 flat with $12 odds, you won't even need to worry about that.

From your questions, I'm guessing you haven't played much, if any, live craps. Be aware that mistakes occur more often with DP/DC wagers - so be sure you are watching your bets and that they don't disappear when they shouldn't. You will likely also experience a few "losing" bets that don't get removed from the layout, then 7 shows and you get paid on it!

[lucky13]

Thanks wudged, very helpful info!

I admit that I haven't played much live, but I have played probably ~20 times. I've just never ventured over to the don't side, so I wasn't sure about that. In my "training" I have been paying close attention to what payouts should be for all situations, so I'll be sure to keep an eye on that.

Thanks for all the assistance guys, I really appreciate it. I've been enjoying checking out this forum the last few days!

[bobthetree]

+1 on watching the don't bets, make sure they don't take them away when they shouldn't! I haven't been playing very long and have already seen this happen several times.

[heavy]

Ok, I get what you're saying with those points. (Except maybe the BR/loss limit part. How is a $500 BR-$250 loss limit different than just a straight $250 BR being ok to lose it all? Don't you have $250 at risk either way?)

To me it's all about the crap between your ears. If you buy in for $250 and lose the entire $250 you walk from the table beat down, depressed because they beat you out of your entire session stake. If you buy in for $500 and lose $250 you walk knowing you had the discipline not to stand there and toss your last chip in. Yeah, you lost $250 either way - but you don't feel like a loser when you only lost half of your stake. It's a small thing, but I think it's important because, as Yogi Berra said, this game is ninety percent half mental.

[SHOOTITALL]

L13: MP has posted a ton on playing the darkside. IF you are not a member of that board, I heartily recommend it. (Dice Institute) Hopefully, Heavy will not bang my noggin for proselyting here, but you are so far behind on learning you need all the help you can get. My personal favorite of his darkside articles are "Dodging bullets on the Darkside," I & II. OUtstanding eyeopener. I am sure more of us diehard darksiders will kick in more observations. It is a fine way to play, but you ALSO need to know how and when to transition. There, Heavy has a fine article on transition. One needs to know both sides of the table to have a fighting chance in over coming a craps game. Let me add here, Keep those cards and letters coming in with questions. On this board, we take all questions seriously and give you our best free advice. sia

[heavy]

Actually, I would encourage all of our forum members to join the DI forum, so you are safe, SIA. But perhaps we can convince MP to repost his Dodging Bullets series here on his "thought of the day" thread. It would be a welcome addition to the archives.

[Jonah]

For a simple Don't strategy that has worked, check out Dylanfreak's Cowtippin' in the "Looking to Cowtip..." thread here:

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1351

[heavy]

This is true. Dylanfreake has had something like a 14 or 15 year run of winning from the Don'ts. Hard to argue with success.

[Golfer]

Lucky 13, congrats on your trials with the darkside. Your play is like a modified Dave's System. Dave is a local Chicago player who was banned from one casino here for winning too much............on the Don't...........without ever touching the dice. His success came from discipline. His play is here somewhere in the archives. MP's series on the darkside is very good. Besides Dave, the player who does it the best, in my mind, is Isgood in New Orleans. I will be there in Sept for a conference and am looking forward to playing with him again.

SIA wrote," but you ALSO need to know how and when to transition."
This my downfall. I do not do this well and when I try I soil myself. In consideration of my poor performance I used an old saying to reflect my inaction. That is where TUMA came from. It refers to me frozen at the table when a hot hand develops and I can not make the transition. I stand there with my Thumb Up My Ass.

SIA is a smart man.

Transition does not always work. I think the best transition moves are either a bet on the 6 and 8 or a come bet, followed by 2 more to see what happens. If it goes well recoup your investment and then start to press.

Good Luck


Golfer

[rollmeasy]

When I first started, I thought being a don't player was the way to go because, "Hey you're going with the seven." Isn't that how the casino gets their money? Well, having played for a little while and learning alot from this board and a couple others, playing the don'ts is NOT a given! Pay attention to what is going on at the table!!!! Yes, there are times when the darkside is the way to go, but when it's not you can get slaughterd.
I watched a guy recently that walked up to the table, bought in for a grand and just started betting the don'ts & laying odds, I think he rebought two more times within the hour. The table was not that hot, but shooters were making a pass or two and rolling LOTS of numbers. He started chasing and just kept getting picked off. It was painful. Been there.
One of the best things I've learned from these guys, is buy in and WAIT! See whats going on. Yea, I miss out on some good rolls, but it's a funny thing about craps, it's always going when I get there, and its still going when I leave.
I look at the stack of chips the casino has on the table and I see a BIG ASS Battleship, and when its gets low a guy shows up and fills er right up. I've learned to respect that. That's how the casino gets there money, staying power with an edge on the game.
My 2 white chips.

[Americraps]

I wonder if anybody has ever wargamed a 3 step martingale on the DP line.
First bet $5. If you win, same bet.
If you lose then bet $10.
If you win, go back to $5,
If you lose the $10 bet, then next bet is $20.
Whether you win or lose the $20 bet, go back to $5, and repeat.

You will still lose on a long hand- for example 9 straight PL winners will have you losing $105, but with a traditional martingale you will lose $2555.

I have never tried this in a casino, but it seems like the occasional $35 you lose on a 3 in a row loss should be fairly easy to make up by the steady stream of $5 winners. Maybe 3 losses in a row is more than occasional. Any opinions?

[Golfer]

Dylanfreak has experimented with those type of plays. He might offer some insight after his morning walk. I am off to the golf course.


Later

[SHOOTITALL]

Americraps: I have used that very play but waited on the shooter to make his first point as per Dodging Bullets. It is akin to watching grass grow.
A CO seven or eleven does not count. It works, more or less, you will not make much and you will be TUMA the majority of the time you are at the table.

[Mad Professor]

With GREAT reluctance, I am posting a link to my infamous "Dodging Bullets" series. I do so with immense hesitation because betting on RANDOM-outcomes is fraught with very high bankroll-erosion risk...and I do not want to seem to be encouraging more R-R betting; because I am not.

Also note that this series was written almost 15 years ago, and my position on random-betting has changed SIGNIFICANTLY since then.

Dodging Bullets as a Darksider…Part 1

Dodging Bullets as a Darksider…Part 2

FAQ’s about the Choppy Table/Short Leash…Part 1

FAQ’s about the Choppy Table/Short Leash…Part 2

FAQ’s about the Choppy Table/Short Leash…Part 3

MP

[heavy]

Here's another great Don't thread for those of you looking into the dark side.