Thinking through my "walkaway" bet

[AtGame7]

If you read my other thread you know I'm just on a disgusting run with my $100 outside walkaway bet.

I still like the idea of a walkaway bet. It gives me an absolute stopping point and a chance to "gamble" it up for a big(ish) win once my goals or stop limit has been reached.

Instead of $100 outside I am thinking of taking two shots at a $60 six or eight with full presses until I hit the table max.

In my head I have seen a lot of hands that throw a good number of six's or eight's. I know here in Pittsburgh we often joke when someone throws 4 six's in a row as having more six's than Nick Perry who famously (or infamously) rigged the daily number here in PA to come out 6-6-6 one Halloween night.

In any event a compete full press gets you to the table max on the 6th hit, my chart looks like this:

Start at $60
First hit pays $70 go to $126 (collect $4)
Second hit pays $147 go to $270 (collect $3)
Third hit pays $315 go to $582 (collect $3)
Fourth hit pays $679 go to $1260 (collect $1)
Fifth hit pays $1470 go to $2730 (collect $0)
Sixth hit pays $3185 go to $3000 (collect $2915)
Seventh hit pays $3500 for $6500 and down plus the $2926 collected along the way minus the $60 to start is profit of $9366.

I AM NOT ADVOCATING THIS AS YOUR CONSTANT STRATEGY, this is just my "walkaway" bet which if I try twice cost me $120. It gives me that shot at a decent payday after grinding my way through the darkside for several hours.

Yes, it would be difficult for me to let $2730 out there naked having picked up $11 along the way, and my win goal for the day MUCH less than that, but that is what the walkaway bet is all about! If you get the 6th hit you already have a nice payout with a shot at the moneyshot, good times.

Instead of trying to pick either the 6/8 I might let the dice do it for me by playing both for $60 and whichever one hits first use that one and pick up the other one. Yes, I could get knocked off both of them and have to do the walk of shame, but again, I'm just gambling on this one, not grinding it out.

Someone chime in on the plausibility of this one. I haven't done it yet, but with the $100 outside treating me like garbage I was thinking of switching it up when I play this evening. I don't care about the odds and haven't figured them out. I would just like anyone's thoughts on this vs the $100 outside play.

Good luck.

[gargoil]

I hear you Agame.. There has been several discussions about a final hail Mary bet or something to do with when you leave the table.
I have always said you stick to your plan. If your plan is to double up and leave then that's what you need to do without putting anything else on the table. If you reached your loss limit then again walk away without leaving any money at the table.

That's how I play it. I guess I don't believe in a walkaway bet simply because if you get a hail Mary and it hits, 90% of the people will stay and try it again. If you lose then you leave the table on a sad note. If I follow my plan then I am pleased either way (win or loss) because I followed the plan.

Again this is just me and how I play the game.

[Golfer]

You will slow things down and give the crew and box headaches with your odd amount bets if they keep hitting. You might consider a simple progression 60 to 120 to 240 to 480 to 900 to 1800 to 3000.

Separately, are you getting any hits on the 4 or 10 on your outside strategy? If yes you might consider our old friend, K Man's March bet. Place $50 on the 4 and 10 (buy bets with vig). On a hit to either take the $150 from the winning bet and the $50 from the number that did not hit and put it all ($200) on either the 5 or 9 (whichever is next to the number that just hit). A hit on that will pay $280. Take that and the original bet and go to a $480 6 or 8, again depending on what was next to the prior winning bet. Basically you are "marching" down the box numbers. You next could go $900 on either the 6 or 8. Take a same bet whenever you want and raise or lower the next bet to your comfort level.

You can probably find a thread here somewhere. Have not seen K Man post in longest. Why not?

Good Luck


Golfer

[heavy]

Or instead of playing $100 outside why not just lay the five and nine for $31 each. If one gets knocked off press the sister lay by $31. Available bankroll - $93.

[freak]

I love it! I also enjoy a walk-away "trigger" bet. I call it my "exit strategy bet" because it's more to mark that it's time to go than a hail-mary grand-finale win. I've been doing something the last 3 visits although I have not done anything as grand as this play. This week it was placing hardways, keep the reds and press with the whites. We made that work 2 out of 5 times.

Looking back at our recently recorded rolls I see hands with 3-4 sixes (or eights) pretty routinely. This weekend we saw 8 out of 24 hands that had 3 or more sixes (or eights). The best hand had 6 sixes:

9 - 6 - 12 - 9P - 6 - 5 - 2 - 4 - 6P - 9 - 8 - 11 - 9P - 6 - 6HP - 5 - 12 - 8 - 2 - 6H - 7out

There was another really long hand of 39 rolls, but it only had five 6s. I also agree with Golfer's simpler progression. Easier for dealers and you do make a tad of profit along the way and still get to hit table max in 7 rolls. I also think you need to really think about how you'll manage it if you do get to the 6th roll in a reasonable amount of time and then hit a series of non-sixes, or if the eight rolls 3 times in a row. Would there be any trigger to regress and take some profit or shift the bet? I think it's a fun play, but the odds of it hitting are slim on most rolls. The odds of it hitting on that pre-identified last roll are even slimmer. Heck, I'm thinking about trying it as a progression in a session. No other bets. Put up a $60 six and try to press to $900. Then down. Next hand place a $300 six and press to $1800 and down. Next hand place a $600 six and go for table max. This would give you a really good shot at the table max goal with multiple hands of 4 sixes which is MUCH more likely than one single hand of 7 sixes. Each previous stage would fund three tries at the next level. Of course, this is off from your original goal of a "grand finale" play but either way, I do really like the idea of pressing a "hero" number. Thanks for the inspiration.