Is 20% win realistic?

[freak]

I can relate to that one SIA. Make a little extra push and get over the hump.

The other thing I try to do (still learning) is to accept a win below the win goal. Yesterday we were trying to win a goal of $120. We got to $110 right away. Three to four hands later back down to $50. Two moderate hands and we're back up to $95. It just felt like fate was saying "I'm gonna tease you to get close but I'm not gonna let you hit your goal." So we accepted the $95. Sometimes it's better to live to fight another day.

[London Shooter]

There's one part of the loss limit that I probably look at differently though. I base my loss limit on my entire bankroll not my session buy in. I'm not going to put money on the table I'm not willing to risk. For me it makes it easier mentally. It's a tough thing to buy in for $200 but only gamble $100. That part has never made a lot of sense to me. If my loss limit is $100 I buy in for $100 and keep the other $100 in my pocket. It ends up being the same thing but I find it easier to manage. That's just me.

I used to do the above, but thing I have got from this forum, and some extra reading, is that concept of buying-in for double what you want to lose works better for me now. In fact my standard $300 buy-in on a $5 craps table doesn't often go much below a $100 dollar loss for me now as with 8 green chips and 20 reds, I find the greens act as a great buffer beyond which I need to be seriously considering whether it is worth continuing this session or not. I am a light better however, so others will size their stack accordingly and may use black chips as their buffer I guess.

in Biloxi, I must have played around 25-30 sessions of craps over 8 days and at least 10 sessions of Black Jack. Only once did I go beyond my 50% loss limit in a craps session and never at BJ. I never even came close to reaching into my pocket for extra funds. Previously I may well have been opening my wallet again, plus for me the psychological factor of losing my last chip just never happens any more. It's all smoke and mirrors of course, but having more on the table and losing no more than half of it definitely helps. You have to have strong discipline not to go dipping into the other chips however, so I agree that money in the pocket rather than the table may work better for some.

[HornHighJoe]

... It just felt like fate was saying "I'm gonna tease you to get close but I'm not gonna let you hit your goal." So we accepted the $95. Sometimes it's better to live to fight another day.

I believe R. D. Ellison, who wrote a few gambling books on different games said that sometimes you should stop at 90% of you win goal. He wrote that when you try to chase that extra little bit it will often lead to a downfall.

I almost always play at a $5 table in my home state with $200. I play 5 pass, 5-count, 1-2x odds and then depending on the point, 5/6 or iron cross ... To lose all $200, i would need to lose 10 hands in a row without any profit.

I take a different approach to my win goal. Instead of % of bankroll, I use betting units. So at a $5 table (assuming you are betting $5 pass line, and min. on the other bets) your goal of $200 would be 40 units ($200/$5). To win $40 is just 8 units which I believe is respectful. At the same time, you spend less time at the table with your money at risk.

As others have said, with these small wins you can build your bankroll, that is what I am attempting to do. At a $25 table, 8 units is $200. So you have to think long-term/big picture.

Remember, that you don't have to lose 10 hands in a row, you could be in a situation where you take 1 step forward and 2 steps back. Sometime the table just "pecks" away at your bankroll.

[freak]

I mostly buy in for double my loss limit now, but some days I still just buy in for $100 or $200. It depends on my plan. There is so much psychology in this game. Craps is so elegantly constructed to lure our brain into false beliefs. How many times have you had a fairly nice hand, won several placed bets, felt encouraged by your winning roll... only to look down at the 7out and realize you're about even because you left most or all of those winnings on the table? I see the larger buy-in as a psychological counter-measure. We can try to influence the dice even though we know our control here is fleeting and fickle. But we have TOTAL control over how much money we bring and put at risk in an effort to win. Practicing good discipline and control on the part of the game that we CAN control breeds confidence for the entire experience. It keeps me from feeling powerless. Losing that last chip is pretty depressing. Seeing the glass still "half full" at the end of a session lessens the blow and has a positive effect projected towards my NEXT session. If there is half left there can always BE a next session. Even if the buy-ins go $600 - $300 - $150 - $75. It's a strategy, or as I like to say a "pattern." And I have found that practiced patterns bring comfort when under the casino roof and especially when under the spell of the dice.

[dork]

Is 20% win realistic?

I dunno, but just reviewing the question in my mind (while at the table) was enough to get me to walk when I normally wouldn't. It's an hour 10 to the casino for me, and then there's the trip home. I'd bought in with $500 yesterday. Within 30-40 minutes, I was up a net $227 (after tips) and thought, "wow. 'way past the forum's 20% question. But I just got here... '$200' is a piddlin' amount."

But that $227 is my money now. If I venture it as a bet, I could win, but I stand to lose "half an hour's 'work', too ".When did I *ever* make $454 an hour painting cars??

So I left. But I think realistically, my goal is gas money ($30) plus ~$150 or better, or the 2-1/2 hours' drive just isn't worth it.

Although I practice buying in for usually more than my loss limit, I don't see the glass 'half-full'--it doesn't psych me to lose the last chip; heck, when I'm on a losing session, I'm holding enough of the last chips to tip the dealers, and when the hand's gone, then I turn in the chips. There's nothing psychologically boosting about "I still have chips"-- I guess I think of it like this--I still got X hundreds in my wallet, and that's enough comfort.

I'm getting better at walking off. $150 plus gas money is the goal, but sometimes I'll leave if I've been there and shot 4 or 5 hands and can't break through a threshold--say, up $90, seesawing profits and losses but not falling below the buy-in, but neither profiting more than X (say, $90). If I can't push through after several tries, I'll pack for home. Hell, at least the gas is covered.

[amish dude]

Good point for me
Taxi fare to bus $25+$5 tip = $30
bus fare $36 and get $25 in slot cash from casino,
usually get $20 of that back in slot cash winnings
$1 tip for the bell desk when I leave my Winter coat there
So now I am in the hole for
$30 Taxi
$14 for bus
so to continue farther I have to make $44 minus the 40% loss limit
dollars when I come back where my girl picks me up !
to make it a good day

[London Shooter]

So in reading recent replies to this thread, how do you all handle the tipping aspect? Does that come out of your buy-in or do you have a separate amount you use for dealers and waitresses? Mine always comes out of my buy-in and any win or loss will therefore be seen as net of this additional expenditure.

[dinero2005]

So in reading recent replies to this thread, how do you all handle the tipping aspect? Does that come out of your buy-in or do you have a separate amount you use for dealers and waitresses? Mine always comes out of my buy-in and any win or loss will therefore be seen as net of this additional expenditure.

That's a good question. I treat it as a cost of doing business. Kinda like the vig or the rake when playing poker. In that sense I'll keep my win goal and loss limit the same regardless of tips. I certainly tip more when winning but I'll tip either way.

I always toss them my odd chips when I color up as well. If I color up $256 for example I'll toss them the $6. That way they're actually getting something. Often my tips are Yo bets or something that don't hit all that often so I feel like they deserve something.

[Mad Professor]

Getting dealers to instantly (and automatically) mentally-salivate like Pavlov’s dog when you toss in a toke, is a simple matter of reflex conditioning.

As you know, world-renowned Russian physiologist Ivan Pavlov noticed that dogs tended to salivate if they saw food even before it was actually physically delivered to them.

By ringing a bell prior to even showing a dog its food, Pavlov was able to get dogs to instantly (and automatically) salivate in eager anticipation of being fed even when no food was present.

By associating a certain sound (like a bell) with a certain subsequent event (like getting fed); Pavlov was able to develop a conditional reflex (salivating) in his dogs.

So how the hell does this relate to getting dealers to instantly (and automatically) mentally salivate like Pavlov’s dog when you are preparing to toss in a toke (which also tends to raise their psychological appreciation of what you are about to do for them)?


Toke-TAPPING

By lightly tapping the toke-chip twice against the table-mirror, right before you throw it to the box-man (and accompanying it with the toke-BRANDING phrase that we previously discussed at length); you create an aural-punctuation alert that tells the dealers that a toke is coming in.

That light double-tap against the mirror every time you are about to toss in a toke, acts to develop a positive-anticipation conditioned reflex that not only differentiates your tokes from everyone else’s; but moreover, when carried out over multiple sessions, your tokes (even if they are smaller than other player’s tokes) take on a higher, more consistent level of dealer-appreciation (and toss-accommodation) because of it.

Laugh at the idea if you want; but I can tell you that toke-TAPPING has held me in pretty darn good stead (and provided an untold measure of higher toss-tolerance and win-tolerance) for nearly a decade.



MP

[Jazzycat]

Interesting concept MP. I need to find that thread on branding and read it. For those interested I've completed session 10 of what will be 20 sessions as kind of an experiment on the effects of compounding small wins. In these past 10 sessions I've confirmed my hunches on giving tips, even small 1 or 2 dollar ones. I'll comment further when I post my 20 session summary (I'm guessing that will be in a week).

[HornHighJoe]

Here you go Jazzycat in case you didn't find the post that MP was talking about:

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2306&p=33052&hilit=brand*#p33052

[Jazzycat]

^^^Thanks TS! I enjoed reading everyone's comments an
d perspectives.