When do you *know* you've got an "edge"? and what to do?

[dork]

I'm on a hot streak; or maybe it's something more... I've been playing for 2-1/2 years. I've never had more than a 4-session consecutive winning streak. In dollars, my losses (per year) are larger than my wins except for this year, stemming from the time when I decided to quit playing at two casinos. (yes, I know "it's early yet", but the manner with which I'm up feels completely different than other times when I've been even further ahead)

This year, I changed tables (and casinos). For the most part, now I only play at one (different from last year's "favorite" casino[s]). I've had 6 consecutive winning sessions; I'm 8 for the last 9 sessions. Not counting the ALL (175-1) portion of the ATS bet (a. k. a., "Bonus Craps"), I've rolled the All Small/Tall (35-1) segments 9 times and hit the ALL (175-1) three times during these 11 sessions. My "sessions" are defined this way--I only visit any one table at one casino, and my sessions during this streak have finished when I've left that single table .

My confidence is up; the dice seems so much more 'receptive' to "influence"... I've bet to hit hardways and Horns, etc., and been lucky enough to be successful better than the averages allow (it took 8 rolls to hit 3 specifically-chosen hardway numbers; I've bet the Horn and been successful with that almost 40% of the time), and my "live" table SSR seems to be up about a whole digit--I'd guess the low 8's. That's a pure WAG... I think I'm rolling an average of 6 box numbers per hand during this tear; that's pretty damn high for me. It's all occurred at the new-to-me casino. (Things are rolling so well my comps are down at this casino because I've been able to spend 'way less time at the table; that doesn't bother me in the least. Most of my hands have been very quick--my average table time attendance is probably no longer than 40 minutes. I had five sessions that finished within 20 minutes. Only one session has lasted as long as an hour (1h 40m)--this, from a guy who used to stay a minimum of 60 minutes for every session at the table at two other casinos.)

How do know when you've got an edge? (It sure feels that way to me. It's like my dice delivery rolls better than at home--the dice die quickly at IP; like I'm not on a trampoline waiting for the 'law of averages' to show me a number.)

Does your play change when you are on a streak like this? What, if anything, do you do differently?

Thank you.

[freak]

It sounds like you have found the right formula. Don't change anything. Ride that wave as long as it lasts!

[dork]

Dead-balls-on, Tabletop!

Thanks for having the gumption to 'tell the world' about your bad streak in order to provide me with a personal lesson. "Fortunately" that kind of situation happened to me last year; it was the only reason I had a losing year. I'd come back from 3 weeks away having had to adjust to a frustrating and annoying family circumstance indirectly related to a death in the family. In order to avoid contact with some undesirables, I hid in the casinos. I went from up $6G's to even in two months; the depression kept me away from the tables for about 2 months longer, but I really struggled to regain a feel for craps play--dice, money management, all of it. I hope I learned enough about myself not to repeat that kind of play. I was lucky it wasn't eatin' money.

With this streak, I've been sooo lucky and the good luck switched "on" so instantly drastically at the moment I quit one casino for another that I don't know how much stock to place in it all. It's scary. I don't know if I've actually gotten any better at throwing or can even say for this short stretch, that I've had some influence over the dice... or not. Eighteen months' worth of almost daily practice seems to have come alive on a different casino's table; the constant (home and live) regimen of throwing the dice seem so much better at these hard tables that I wonder for the first time if I'm actually the one who's accomplishing something. Before, I just practiced patiently thinking, "sooner or later the 'talent' will show up." But now, it's almost like running with lead ankle weights removed for the first time, and the results are really casting doubts.

I went from a diagonal-gripped underhand toss from SL1 to a diagonal-grip backhand throw from straight out; it feels so much more comfortable and easy on this 'dead' table.. the grip is so practiced after 18 months that the change from UH to BH seems almost incidental, and so natural now after just nine or so live sessions. I've rearranged my home configuration so that I'm straight out, and the dice roll so much better than they did UH... yet, the excellent results really have me so tentative, all I can seem to do mentally during live play is concentrate on keeping my throw constant. I'm having a lot of trouble giving attention to the rest of the table's requirements--money management, betting schemes, I've even forgotten to make bets at times; I've been concentrating so much on keeping a good throw.

I guess I'll just hang on for the ride and hope I can prove by the winnings that it's more than blind luck.

[shunkaha]

Your success could be a variety of things, it is obviously rather early to say which. It could be that you have "arrived", it could be that your comfort level is simply better, it could be that you are more at ease and dialed in on that table, or it could simply be a "run of luck". My advice, be mindful that while you might try to aggressively grow your bankroll, don't be too aggressive at it because statistics is truth in large numbers and variance is lies in small ones... and you never want to mistake the two.

I have known a great many people that have believed those small numbers when they began betting... until those large number set in. Don't worry about when, if, or whether it will end... it will do what it will do with or without you worrying over it. Also remember, you don't have to get rich every time you play, you don't even have to win much... as long as you win enough to cover the expenses of going and still make a profit.

[JB85]

Your success could be a variety of things, it is obviously rather early to say which. It could be that you have "arrived", it could be that your comfort level is simply better, it could be that you are more at ease and dialed in on that table, or it could simply be a "run of luck". My advice, be mindful that while you might try to aggressively grow your bankroll, don't be too aggressive at it because statistics is truth in large numbers and variance is lies in small ones... and you never want to mistake the two.

I have known a great many people that have believed those small numbers when they began betting... until those large number set in. Don't worry about when, if, or whether it will end... it will do what it will do with or without you worrying over it. Also remember, you don't have to get rich every time you play, you don't even have to win much... as long as you win enough to cover the expenses of going and still make a profit.

Great post. I would add that you don't always have to make a profit when you go, but instead try to avoid large losses. For example, I went last night and not much was going right early. I ended up down a few hundred. Instead of pressing, I just stayed patient and worked my way back. At my highest point, I was + $8. LOL. My goal was to try get to at least $50 profit but it just wasn't happening and I had been there for a few hours so I colored up down $30. Too many times in the past I would either press when down, trying to get it back quickly and then hit my loss limit. Or I would get back close to even and stay too long trying to make a profit and end up going back in the hole.

[shunkaha]

Your success could be a variety of things, it is obviously rather early to say which. It could be that you have "arrived", it could be that your comfort level is simply better, it could be that you are more at ease and dialed in on that table, or it could simply be a "run of luck". My advice, be mindful that while you might try to aggressively grow your bankroll, don't be too aggressive at it because statistics is truth in large numbers and variance is lies in small ones... and you never want to mistake the two.

I have known a great many people that have believed those small numbers when they began betting... until those large number set in. Don't worry about when, if, or whether it will end... it will do what it will do with or without you worrying over it. Also remember, you don't have to get rich every time you play, you don't even have to win much... as long as you win enough to cover the expenses of going and still make a profit.

Great post. I would add that you don't always have to make a profit when you go, but instead try to avoid large losses. For example, I went last night and not much was going right early. I ended up down a few hundred. Instead of pressing, I just stayed patient and worked my way back. At my highest point, I was + $8. LOL. My goal was to try get to at least $50 profit but it just wasn't happening and I had been there for a few hours so I colored up down $30. Too many times in the past I would either press when down, trying to get it back quickly and then hit my loss limit. Or I would get back close to even and stay too long trying to make a profit and end up going back in the hole.

Thanks, I meant long term win though... short term losses are fine because they will and do happen ALOT, the problem is when the long term trend is to grind yourself down to nothing. I have known several people that slowly lost... the problem is if you go once a week and color up down $50 each time or go once a yr and color up down $2600... you've still lost $2600, or worse yet if you go every week and it costs you $100 to get there and you color up ahead $50 each time yet fail to account for the trip expenses... I have known people that do that as well. Everyone should always be honest with themselves about why they go, what they wagered, what they won, how they won it... really all facets of life but especially an aspiring DI should be honest with themselves on all things related to their play.

Anyway I digress, I do agree that it is much better to accept a small loss than parley it into a bone crushing defeat... though sometimes those bone crushing defeats force us to reexamine ourselves in such a way that our games progress more than they would without the losses that forced an introspective look into what we did and why.

[dork]

Everyone should always be honest with themselves ... especially an aspiring DI should be honest with themselves on all things related to their play.

Yeah, I'm really trying to toe the line here... while I don't wanna be scared to play, I'm at a point in my playing experience where the wins seem almost too repetitive in their quality to be believed; yet, things are going so well, it feels funny to deny what's happening--even if it's just brazen luck. I went to the table again today; again, I was the driver so my wife could play the Thursday slots.

So I was an "unwilling" participant--1730 CST at IP and on a Thursday "rewards" day (or some such, for slot players), the $5 Crap Table has 3(!!) shooters and one end was empty. Since that number of shooters falls under my 'acceptable' standard and my new shooting station was open, I bought in, and for my "4-shooter cycle" limit--$500. I felt 'dragged into it'... my intent was to join a full table and Grafstein grind $5DC's for a couple hours.

One cycle around the table and it's my turn; I bet $4-2-4 ATS and a $5PL w/$20 odds on a Come-Out '8'. I make 5 box numbers (rolling the 6 and 5 twice each) and SO; lost it all and din't make a cent. But the dice feel pretty good (and I've thrown at home for ~45 minutes just before the drive down). By the time the dice cycle back to me again, my Dave's Don't grind has me down ~$30. This time, my earlier short hand doesn't have me wondering about my feel for the dice--I feel like taking a swing at the table. There are just the acceptable number of shooters; I could ask for fewer, but IP at dinner-time? I must be crazy to hope for a better scenario at dinner time.

So I start my hand down $30. 4-2-4 on the ATS, Come Out is '6'. I go $90 inside, $5PL w/25 odds. Two hits and regress to $52 Across. About fifteen minutes later I was up $830, including the ATS at 2x (35-1) @ $4 each, and the ALL for $2 @ (175-1). This is so fantastic, the forum folks'll think I'm just BS'ing or lying... it's just not believable. I was shootin' for Aces to finish off the ALL's--and it came up--a prime roll. Is it real? Overall, I've won at least $277 in 10 of 14 sessions since I made the commitment to IP. Since I adapted a much more disciplined loss-limit regimen, I'm up 7 for the last 9 sessions. I've had 4 ALL's (175-1) in the only 11 sessions I bet them, including an extra 2 ATS (35-1) not included in the 4 ATS's. And still, I'm just as leery right this minute about bringin' my money to the table as I was when I was first learning... that big snake's around here somewhere, and I've just been waiting for him to bite me. What's taking so long for the "large numbers" to show?

... Anyway I digress, I do agree that it is much better to accept a small loss than parley it into a bone crushing defeat... though sometimes those bone crushing defeats force us to reexamine ourselves in such a way that our games progress more than they would without the losses that forced an introspective look into what we did and why.

I would add that you don't always have to make a profit when you go, but instead try to avoid large losses. ...

The point of posting all this is twofold--I still can't tell if I have an edge... my table presence still needs a LOT of work; I missed a couple calls today... I tolerated the realignment of my bets (other than what I specified) simply because I wanted to keep the rhythm going and didn't want the miscommunication between me and the dealer to distract me--especially for $6 on the "wrong number". The dice seem to rotate very well at times, and other times, I can't keep my concentration focused on their flight enough to see if they're synch'd... Chips across the DP, Field, and Come are mightily distracting. Seeing the dice arc into the proper target area is really hard to do while observing their rotation. Hell, as much as I can eye-track them, sometimes it just looks RR random. But there sure is a feeling of good delivery most of the time...and even though they're not glued barrels, I think mostly they look good; and introspection says that's an honest evaluation, yet is it? or is it arrogantly based on previous game results, or is it just another lucky hand? I hope it's really "me" and not the short streak.

I didn't expect to play; I'm past the euphoria of winning in a streak... I'm up; a very significant amount, in my 'coupon' standard of money management--I went to the casino as the driver, intent on passing the time with one goal--I hoped to "maintain" my financial position. All I wanted to do was tread water--these are "daylight" playing hours--and I hate playing when there are others at the table. All I wanna do is pass the time, hold to discipline, and keep my losses to <$100. As Shunkaha said, I just wanted to cover my expenses, and more importantly to me--all I wanted to do is survive playing $5 flat Don'ts on a full table until the next morning session a coupla weeks out. And here there's an opportunity with 3 shooters, and it works out for me, again. I just dunno what to think.

But I'm really appreciative of all ya'lls advice. I'm Chicken-Littlin' into my wins and it's working out, so far.

[bobthetree]

Good stuff Dork. Don't worry so much. If you are up and have the discipline to stick to your loss limit of 1/2 your buy in... Think about how many sessions you could go in a row now of worst case scenario. How many? 7-10? That is a large number of sessions to have a horrific cold streak on. Think about how big your buffer is in that regard and know that it is very unlikely to turn that far south. Keep doing what you are doing and hopefully remembering that would help you to know you don't have to worry so much. Sounds like you are worrying about each coming session, when in fact, one bad session (with discipline kept in tact) wouldn't even cut into your recent run much at all! If that doesn't help, find another mental gymnastics type of way of looking at it that helps you keep things in perspective. You are doing great. One thing the fear is doing: keeping you from getting cocky about your wins. You want to keep that part of your thought process ticking along!

One thing that might help you too: Wizard gave a speech in Biloxi, about separating yourself mentally into 2 people. A shooter (only paying attention to how the dice look in the air, rollout etc. while executing a preplanned easy betting method) and an investor (gives a sum of money to the shooter to do as instructed) The shooter comes back after each session and hands in notes and the resulting money. A little "reporting to the man in the mirror". I can't do it justice, hopefully we can have Wizard write it up for us Maybe he already has and I missed it, but I thought it was a cool concept.

[JB85]

Great stuff dork.

The only way to know if you have an edge is to track rolls, lots of rolls. If you have an edge at home you have to assume that you have one in the casino. This said, you seem to be having a higher than average number of longer rolls recently which means that you are riding a positive wave of variance in addition to the edge you may have. Keep doing the things you are doing and ride her til she bucks you. As long as you are betting within your bankroll and have the discipline to get out when you reach your loss limit you are just fine. Hopefully we will continue to read about more winning session in the near term!

[dork]

Thanks very much, Guys! I won't use the adage, "Confidence is High" because that sounds too much like I'm getting cocky, but the winnings have allowed me to relax and actually attack the throw with less of a micro-management focus on "everything" about it, which must lead to a smoother throw. That's important because, though the grip is the same, the backhand throw is new to me and only about 3 weeks practiced.

Bob, you make a very good point. I never sat and calculated the number of return sessions I'd have if I set the loss limit to 50% of the buy-in... that number's just about dead on--my pre-regression Across bet, with my $5 PL w/5x odds is ~$120; I envision a repeat loss of 2 PSO's and my loss limit is ~$250. And in that case, I'd have enough for 14 sessions without tallying one winning session.