Laying a firebet. Good or bad?

[NebraskaDaddy]

I know this topic has been addressed but I would like some more clarification on this. Recently I was at the Horseshoe Casino in Council-tucky and had already hit 4 to the firebet. I wanted to lay my fifth point ( a 9) and was talked out of it by the box person. Thinking back on it now I should have ignored her and done it anyway but was influenced by other table players as well. Under the pressure to roll for the fifth number of the fire, I went ahead and 7'd out after 2 rolls. I wanted to lay the 9 for 120 bucks, which the box told me was all I could wager. First off would I not be able to lay the table max at this point? Why would I not be able to lay 500 toward this which I believe was the max and why was I limited to 120? Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated so that if it comes up again I can wager accordingly and hedge an already winning hand to win if I do not hit that 5th or possibly 6th point to a fire. By the way I only had 2 bucks on the fire being I was shooting and I feel it is a sucker bet if I'm not the person rolling. Also i was the only person on the firebet so i'm not sure why I listened to all the others giving advice. Thanks

[HornHighJoe]

short answer, imho, yes against a random roller, no against a DI/rhythm roller. Well, you could still lay but not as much.
Can't give an explanation about the 120 max.
Also, when hedging against a possible 5th/6th number, do a dooey-dont bet instead. If you get the puck on the missing number, you can put don't odds instead, so you dont have to pay the vig. If a number repeats, move any place bet you have as odds behind, so you can get paid more this way.

[NebraskaDaddy]

So you would suggest betting the doey/don't on the 5th number and lose the do bet but wager max odds on the don't wager. If I were to do so, betting $5 on each the DO and the don't I could wager on a 100x max table, a $5 pass with a $5 dollar don't pass with max odds on the don't I would equate to the same as a Lay on the 9 for max (being they allow me to do so the next time)? However I'm not sure this would work with a $500 max table. Someone inform me if I am wrong please. Thanks.

[NebraskaDaddy]

Also one last item to add. Heavy you responed to me that you were at the Horseshoe in question and I am wondering if you hedged the fire bet that you were in on. Being that you hit 5 of the numbers, did you bet the fire and/or were you naked when this happened? You responded that you hit a 5 point fire recently after I joined the forum and I'm am curious as to how you approached this. Looking forward to your resonse. Thanks

[heavy]

Good question. I did not hedge the fifth number. The guy standing next to me did - I think for around $2K - he had a substantial Fire bet out there and I had a whopping $3. Made the fifth number. Unsuccessful at setting the sixth number as the point and should had laid against the do-over, but it was one of my stronger numbers so I did not. In short - I think the box gal was wrong in what she told you and it should have been appealed to the floor. If I felt strongly about the need to lay the number I would have asked to see a written copy of the Fire bet rules from their dealer manual. In most jurisdictions if they cannot show you that then they probably will have an issue with the gaming commission.

[freak]

What I don't understand is WHY you would want to lay $500? If you hit the 5th point you would lose the $500 lay and win $500 for your $2 firebet. A push. I can understand that you might want to lay more than $120 but I would think you'd want to lay something in the middle...like lay $300 to win $200 if you miss, or clear $200 if you hit it. The only time I've ever had the chance to lay on the 6th point I didn't do it. I had $1 on it and 10 came up as the 6th number. But this guy was on a roll and I didn't want send a bad vibe. He didn't hit it but I was OK with my decision. I think if it happens again with the 6 or 8 as the last point I might lay it since I wouldn't lose nearly as much on a 6 or 8 lay if it got hit as the last point. This is a good reminder to make all your "play" decisions before you start to shoot. If you have already decided to lay a 5th or 6th point should the opportunity arise, it will be more difficult for anyone to talk you out of a planned rehearsed play.

[NebraskaDaddy]

Basically I wanted to Lay the 9 for a guaranteed win. I agree that I would have layed for less like $300 but I was going to do so just to guarantee myself a win. If I hit the fifth point I didnt t care about breaking even on the firebet hedged by the lay, I just wanted to guarantee myself a win either way. If I would have gotten set up on the sixth point I would have probably layed that number as well in hindsight. Next time I will probably lay the number in question if it comes up again.

[heavy]

Let's say you have a $10 Fire Bet made and the fifth number pays $250 - $1. That's a potential $2500 win. Now let's assume the point established is the NINE. You could lay $1500 against it to guarantee a $1000 win either way. That's the point of the lay bet - to guarantee that you win SOMETHING. There is no rule that I am aware of that limits the amount you can lay in these situations. Hence my comment that the boxette was wrong in here statement that the max lay was $120.

[freak]

I wonder if she didn't just get momentarily confused and was thinking about max lay odds on a DC or DP rather than a straight lay. I've sure seen it happen where a dealer or boxperson quotes a rule correctly but it's the wrong rule for my bet. Some apologize quickly when they realize their error and others hang on for deal life refusing to admit they are wrong.

[Maddog]

This would be an awesome problem for someone to create a wincraps script to simulate. I would be curious if it shows a winning effect, a simple variance smoothing effect, or an overall losing effect. My gut would be that it would be the latter.

I'm not a big fan of laying the firebet, except for on the 6th number. The last time I tried to figure this one out I seem to recall feeling like I was always giving away more then I was taking in.

Although on the surface it seems like you are guaranteeing something, if you think about all the possible scenarios you quickly see that the only winning variation is if the Seven comes. If you make your point you have dug a hole into your potential winnings and have to decide if you are going to keep digging.

For example say you layed the 5th point, and you make your point... ok you just lost your lay, but you are still guaranteed to win at least half the money from the 5 points you have completed. Now what if you then set a repeating point? Do you lay against this one also? If you do and again make that point, most of your potential FB winnings are now gone to pay the lost Lays. What if now you set the 6th point for the FB. Going to lay this one? Again if you do, then what you really want is the seven, otherwise you are losing another big lay and further cutting into your FB win.

I'm not saying it is a completely wrong play... after all the seven is the most likely results... it just seems like if you're gonna go on a flyer bet and get there, then dilute it down, what was the point of taking the flyer in the first place?

[Lkwd]

I never lay a point during a firebet when when I am shooting. I think it s signals I gave up and most of all it takes me out of the zone. Man, be aggressive. Prove to your self that all those hours and hours of practice are now going to payoff.

Hit the 6th point, screw the lay.......


Lkwd

[heavy]

Depends on how much they let you bet on the Fire. In Council Bluffs you can bet up to $25. A $250 - $1 pay off on a five number Fire bet win at that level is $6260. Why wouldn't you lay against it to guarantee a win?

[heavy]

Horseshoe Casino in Council Bluffs. Not an Indian joint.

[NebraskaDaddy]

You know the more I've been thinking about this today I would probably employ a doey/don't play on the fifth point as a hedge to win. At this particular casino the max odds are 100x. With small risk of betting $10 or even as little as $5 it would be possible to get on the fifth or sixth number and lay the odds on the don't pass and just eat the pass line bet. Without the 100x odds which is not found at very many casinos that I am aware of, this bet would not be possible without a larger pass/don't pass wager. Anyone agree?

[heavy]

Not a bad option.

[Steen]

This would be an awesome problem for someone to create a wincraps script to simulate. I would be curious if it shows a winning effect, a simple variance smoothing effect, or an overall losing effect. My gut would be that it would be the latter.

I'm not a big fan of laying the firebet, except for on the 6th number. The last time I tried to figure this one out I seem to recall feeling like I was always giving away more then I was taking in.

These lay bet hedges can be made on many levels, but the first it seems should be to insure the sixth and final Fire bet point. Ideally, the lay bet should be made when the shooter establishes a point on the last unmade number. This would improve your net gain having made five points at the expense of decreasing your net gain if you make the final point.

The following script for WinCraps Pro performs this Fire bet with the Lay bet hedge. Try it with varying hedge amounts and I think you might find it yields some interesting results. You might even try it with several players. Load the same script for each player and have each lay a different amount. The script will query you for the amounts.


If Initializing script Then
AutoHandle Winning Bets = "Take bet and winnings" :
AutoHandle Losing Bets = "No bet" :

show message
"This script plays the Fire bet and adds a Lay bet hedge " &
"when 5 separate points have been made." :

cs1.Firebet = input("How much do you want to wager on the Fire bet?") :
cs2.LastPtLay = input("How much do you want to wager on the Lay bet for the last unmade point?") :
EndIf

If New shooter Then
bet cs1.Firebet on Fire :
cs4 = 0 :
cs5 = 0 :
cs6 = 0 :
cs8 = 0 :
cs9 = 0 :
cs10 = 0 :
cs11.numfirepoints = 0
EndIf

If A point is decided FOR any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) Then
If cs(Last Point) = 0 Then
cs(Last Point) = 1 :
add 1 to cs11.numfirepoints
EndIf
EndIf

If cs11.numfirepoints = 5 Then
' Lay the last unmade point
If cs4 = 0 And point = 4 Then
bet cs2.LastPtLay on Lay4
ElseIf cs5 = 0 And point = 5 Then
bet cs2.LastPtLay on Lay5
ElseIf cs6 = 0 And point = 6 Then
bet cs2.LastPtLay on Lay6
ElseIf cs8 = 0 And point = 8 Then
bet cs2.LastPtLay on Lay8
ElseIf cs9 = 0 And point = 9 Then
bet cs2.LastPtLay on Lay9
ElseIf cs10 = 0 And point = 10 Then
bet cs2.LastPtLay on Lay10
EndIf
EndIf

Steen

[Raider]

I have only made the four point fire four times. The next time I do I will lay the fifth and the sixth because I shoot better when I am not thinking about money. Its the same when I am shooting, if I'am a few hundred dollars ahead in my chip rail, I relax and just enjoy shooting the dice, but when I am below my buy-in, I worry.

[hard6]

I only had the opportunity one time to make a fire-6 bet and I didn't lay the 5 that I was missing but couldn't make it.

I would only think of laying for the fire-6.

After analyzing this situation I found that a $5 Fire-6 Bet would break about even on a win or loss:
for the 4 or 10 - lay $2500 pays $2,437 or $2438 depending on how they took the lay on the $2500 ($62 or $63)
for the 5 or 9 - lay $2250 pays $2,675
for the 6 or 8 - lay $2,040 pays $2,875 on a miss or $2885 on a win (the lay cost is $85)

[freak]

Interesting RC but what if the shooter sets the same few points over and over?

[bigb14]

In that instance, the $2 @$250 to one would be $500. A $500 lay against the 5th point would guarantee you a $250 win, which I believe is the best course of action.

I typically bet $5 every time and play at casinos that offer 4@ 25 to 1, 5 @ $250 to 1, and 6 @1000 to one.

I always hedge it.

For instance, with the 4th point $5 wins $125. I would hedge with a $60 lay on the point.
With the 5th point $5 wins $1250. I would hedge with a $600 lay on the point.
With the 6th point $5 wins $5000. I would hedge with a $2500 lay on the point.

All of that is obviously subject to having available bankroll at the time.