Freakonomics

[gargoil]

On my recent trip to Vegas, I purchased a book for some light reading during the flight titled think like a freak. This is the study of freakonomics thinking and not freak on this site..

This style of thinking shows us why 99.9% of humans take the safest route in anything and anything they do. Not because it is the safest route but because if they chose the unusual route and fail, the would become the laughing stock of the community. They ignore the rewards / results if they succeed.

To quote the author, Imagine you are about to take a penalty kick in soccer that could bring your team to a world cup win. Statistics show that 51% of the shots are taken to the left, 47% to the right and only 2% to the middle. The same statistics / numbers are given to the goalie's movement after the kick. (51% to the right, 47% to the left and 2% stand still).
Consider this the author says, if the odds on the goal keeper to stay in the middle is only 2% then why are most of the shots taken to the left or the right? The study shows that kicker chooses to go left / right for fear of humiliation if the shot goes in the middle and the goal keeper hand grabs it.

So what does that have to do with Craps? well a lot actually. This book encouraged me to think like a freak and act when certain patterns occurred. I will not go into details but I felt I should mention this on the forum for those who are tracking numbers at the tables and watching certain patterns, this would be helpful to them.

Google the study and see if it will work for you.

[freak]

Well I was intrigued by the title of course. But also by the description:

Some of the steps toward thinking like a Freak:

First, put away your moral compass—because it’s hard to see a problem clearly if you’ve already decided what to do about it.
Learn to say “I don’t know”—for until you can admit what you don’t yet know, it’s virtually impossible to learn what you need to.
Think like a child—because you’ll come up with better ideas and ask better questions.
Take a master class in incentives—because for better or worse, incentives rule our world.
Learn to persuade people who don’t want to be persuaded—because being right is rarely enough to carry the day.
Learn to appreciate the upside of quitting—because you can’t solve tomorrow’s problem if you aren’t willing to abandon today’s dud.

Sounds very interesting...

[slowdriver]

a few weeks ago i caught a segment on Sunday morning about this book and the Authors behind it..It was interesting
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/meet-the-mi ... akonomics/

[gargoil]

Trying a different betting approach in live play based on some of the thinking strategies in the book was really scary. However if you combine that type of thinking with sound table reading / charting the results are big. I think the two HAVE to go together or you will lose the shirt off your back.

[bobthetree]

I think a sound low edge conservative betting strategy applied on a consistent basis works too and takes away some of the guess work from the other. Reading a table and the subjectivity part of those strategies really frustrates me. That's just me though. I've seen heavy do it and gargoil had good results with his choices this weekend. I hope to analyze my stuff from this weeken and check it out soon. I'M really thinking about a three point Molly. I think it is so boring that people write it off, but it is low vig and might just be a good match for di. Time will tell....