Four!

[heavy]

Four!
by Steve “Heavy” Haltom

I was standing at the tables recently when the shooter, who was setting the V-2, tossed back-to-back hard fours followed by a hard ten. I promptly bought the four and ten. The fellow standing next to me - a system player - tossed out a $41 No Four lay bet. I turned to him and asked why he was betting against the four when the four and ten were clearly the numbers of the moment. He said “I’m just playing the odds – mathematically the four should not roll again. I said, “You must be using different math than me,” knowing exactly what system he was playing. A couple of rolls later the shooter bounced back an easy four. Shortly after he decided to take a break and go to lunch.

Certainly there are times to bet the four – and times to lay the four. Your opinion may differ from mine, which is why they call it a crapshoot. There’s a way to bet for every player out there. Some are based on logic. Some on intuition. Some without any thought whatsoever. Let’s look at some of the different ways to play the Four.

Laying the Four for $41 (or more). When laying a four for $41 you are essentially betting $40 to win $20 – minus the $1 vig – if the seven appears before the Four. For those of you who have trouble with the math on this calculation – you’re paying the house a 5% commission for the privilege of laying that number. The commission is refundable, of course, if you decide to take the bet down – which you should do in my opinion. Because as far as I’m concerned the best use of the Lay bet is to hedge a Don’t Pass bet against the seven on the Come Out. Lay $41 No Four for one roll while playing $25 on the Don’t Pass. You’ll be risking $41 against the three ways that the Four can roll versus the six ways the Seven can roll. If the Seven shows up you lose your $25 Don’t Pass bet, but you win net $19, so your true exposure is $6. It’s a good way to play as far as I’m concerned. Get your $25 DP bet established, then take the Lay bet down and stack the chips back in your rack.

Playing the Hard Four. Another way to bet the Four is to play the Hard Four. The Hard Four can be very useful for hedge bettors who prefer to reduce the number of ways they can lose their $41 No Four Lay bet from three to two. Bet a $5 Hard Four and you’ll accomplish that. If the Four rolls hard and you lose your $41 No Four bet you will win $35 on your $5 Hard Four bet. Again, your maximum exposure to loss is $6. As for playing the rest of the hardways – I generally do not recommend it as anything other than a recreational bet. However, I will bet the hardways when they are streaking. Admittedly, the fact that a shooter has tossed five or six hardway numbers in his hand is no reason to believe he will continue to do so. However, I’d rather bet them when they’ve been rolling than when they haven’t. So, I run a simple progression on the hardways that starts with $4. I’ll bet $1 each on all of the hardways. Whenever a number gets knocked off I’ll toss out $4 more and press the remaining numbers while replacing the bet that fell. I’ll continue to do this until I’ve exhausted my recreational bet bankroll – usually $20 - $40. Then it’s back to the grind. Often I’ll get a hit on one of the number when it has $5 - $7 on it, resulting of payoffs that roughly double what I’ve invested in the wager. And often the numbers will get knocked off one after another as the hardways just disappear. When the hardways win – it’s “Bonus Money!” When they lose – it was “Recreational Money.” Either way, I limit my losses and love my wins.

Taking the Four to Table Max: Let’s say you’re in a $5 - $5000 max bet game. You could just walk up to the table and “Buy the Four for $5,000.” Or your could ease your way up to $5000 a few dollars at a time. Let’s take a couple of looks at pressing the Four based on an initial $25 Buy Bet. I’m going to ignore the commission on these payouts because the breakage varies so much from casino to casino.

Slow progression: $25 - $50 - $75 - $100 . . . you get the drift. We’re increasing our bet by $25 every time the four rolls. Hmmm. The four would have to roll around 200 times to get to table max, so while this is a fairly conservative way to play – you’re not getting anywhere near table max in this lifetime.

Medium progression: $25 - $50 - $100 - $250 - $500 - $1000 - $2500 - $5000. Yep, that’s the progression I use when the four is showing. Admittedly, I rarely get it pressed higher than $1000. However, at that point I will have already racked $850 so who cares if you leave $1000 on the table?

Rapid progression: $25 - $75 - $225 - $750 - $2250 - $5000. This one has you pressing your full win on the first two hits – then taking back your initial bet on the third hit. You get to max bet two hits sooner than with the Medium progression, but you risk losing it all on an early seven out.

Power progression: $25 - $100 - $325 - $775 - $2350 - $5000. I’d call this the Insanity Press. Whenever you get a hit you press the entire win PLUS and additional $25 until you hit table max. You don’t get any money off the table until you hit table max.

However you decide to play the Four (or the Ten) is up to you, your bankroll, and your risk tolerance. My suggestion? Wait until the table starts giving up fours and tens, then make the largest Buy bet you can for a $1 commission while keeping the bet size below the breakage. In some casinos that will be $25. In others it may be $30 or even $39. Make your bets, take your winnings, and smile all the way to the bank.

[dinero2005]

Heavy, what is your opinion of placing the 4/10 for $10, buying it for $25 with the winnings and progressing from there? I've seen a lot of players using that strategy lately. It's tempting to me because you only have $10 invested when the trend appears rather than investing $26 after seeing the number hit a couple of times. I feel late to the party at that point. I know placing the 4/10 is a high vig bet but it seems like I could get to that max bet faster and cheaper that way???

[heavy]

I'll do that myself when I'm betting on an unknown shooter who seems to be hitting fours and/or tens. $10 to $25 to $50 to $100 to $250 . . . but you might consider dropping a couple of dollars on that first his and pressing the four and ten both to $20 Buy bets.

[Jeff40]

So Heavy, are you ever on the hardways? 10 dallors on the 4 or ten, first hit let it ride. Second hit proffitt

[dhigital]

How about hitting the 4 or 10 twice with a buy and then lay $50 on one number and take down the other? I made several great calls turning my bets off the moment before the dice hits the table and the 7 showed. In my head was why didn't i say lay a 4 or 10 instead of off. hit a couple numbers and lay one point and wait. I think i will do that on my next visit.