If we assume 1 in 6 !!!

[gargoil]

It is said the probability of a 7 is 1 in 6. Based on that, IF WE ASSUME ( again just an assumption ) that most hands will have at least 5 rolls before the 7 shows up but to keep it real lets just say 3 rolls, what would be the best betting strategy?

1- MP 204
2- Dicer's one hit then down ?
3- SIA's don't with a 6 / 8 place bet ?

Not trying to start a betting strategy war but trying to understand the risk vs reward on the long run with the proper payroll.

[mssthis1]

The problem with random shooters is they are not random enough. I've seen over 10 point seven outs in a row from Randies and I've seen Randies throw for over an hour.

The Harrah's at Council Bluffs has a stadium type craps game where a RNG "tosses" the dice every 15 seconds whether everyone is ready or not. I've played the don't on it in the past with success. The variance seems to be much lower than a live game. I'm heading there this afternoon and plan on trying a 3 unit across scheme regressing to 1 unit after 2 hits. I haven't decided yet if I'm going to press after the regression or flat bet.

If anyone is in Council Bluffs this weekend and wants to team up let me know by 1:00 pm cst. I plan on playing live sessions too.

The live table at Harrah's is usually empty as everyone goes to the Horseshoe and the 100 times odds that nobody ever takes.

[Bankerdude80]

The variance of the game makes me pause. I would use SIA's Don't with a 6 / 8 place bet. Anecdotally, I have seen strings of PSO's at tables and that scares me. This is where the PSO comes shooter after shooter. That kind of exposure makes me very hesitant. Now if we're talking making bets on qualified shooters only, I might get more adventurous. The math experts can probably speak to which example is the ideal betting strategy based on the assumptions provided.

[Maddog]

First you must reject the notion of 1 in 6... it is 1/6 or 16.67% probability that the next toss will result in a seven. Then there is variance around the probability measured in standard deviations.

Any strategy that starts with the idea of a number appearing or not appearing in "X" number of rolls is doomed and falls in the Due-Number Theory category.

Regarding which strategy is better? None, they are all the same. Unless you can influence the dice.. and if you can influence the dice then there are always better strategies. However, each will work within the random or semi-random (i.e. a DI, but unknown influence) game to one extent or another depending on the nature of sample of rolls.

[gargoil]

First you must reject the notion of 1 in 6... it is 1/6 or 16.67% probability that the next toss will result in a seven. Then there is variance around the probability measured in standard deviations.

Any strategy that starts with the idea of a number appearing or not appearing in "X" number of rolls is doomed and falls in the Due-Number Theory category.

Regarding which strategy is better? None, they are all the same. Unless you can influence the dice.. and if you can influence the dice then there are always better strategies. However, each will work within the random or semi-random (i.e. a DI, but unknown influence) game to one extent or another depending on the nature of sample of rolls.

Thanks Maddog. I knew there was confusion there somewhere. It is a 16.67% probability but somewhere I read that the probability increases as the roll proceeds. Is that true?

[Americraps]

The Rapping Captain had a good thing with his Exponential Odds System. Essentially this system uses sensibly pressed up bets to leverage the earning power of the hot hand, maximizing wins, while keeping losses on PSOs to zero. He utilized the lowest house edge bets, making it possible for that occasional monster win to overwhelm the large number of losing hands. I did a long experiment using EO (exponential Odds) on multiple books of rolls. Over 20 books. My srr ended up a touch over 6. Something like 6.02. Anyway, I was up over $30K when I quit the simulation. Granted, I really didn't make it to the "long run", that would be a million rolls, but it was long enough to prove to me that EO works.

[London Shooter]

Yes, I agree with 48% figure.