MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing

[freak]

Of course the fascinating there here for me is that it shows the power of the 204. My recorded hands are no longer that 8 rolls, but they do produce a profit:

LS-6PT,6PT,9PT,10,6,7OUT…+$62
LS-6PT,6PT,4PT,6,7OUT…+$54
LS-11FLW,8PT,9,10,7OUT…+$54
LS-3,3,8PT,10,10,9,5,7OUT…+$72
LS-10PT,8(H),8,5,8,8(H),7OUT…+$80

More food for thought for me. Of course I will not start betting 204 across on myself, but it does show you can be in net profit territory even from a less than average set of hands if you are prepared to risk more up front and then get most of your money off the table.

Yup. That's what drew me in. So many trips we'd come home with a loss only to run the numbers on the recorded rolls and discover a regression play like the MP$204 would have yielded a profit. Even playing every single hand. Even with no long 15+ roll hands. Granted PSOs really suck, but on an average table, with a statistical average number of PSOs and PPSOs the MP$204 makes money. We won 21 of our first 28 sessions this year with this style of play. Then the PSO devil bit hard and we lost 11 of the next 13. But even losing 18 of 40 sessions we're only down about $200 for 40 sessions of high action play.

[Operator]

The pso cycle it bits real hard and when it hits it stays a while. If you knew when it would hit you could change systems.

[Mad Professor]

Well, Vinyl and I were at the table together a few times and I note she recorded my rolls at those times. They make up what was a story of my week - a lot of short hands. Not many PSOs or PPSO that I remember, but not too many hands either - I think I shot 20+ maybe 3 times in a week.

Of course the fascinating there here for me is that it shows the power of the 204. My recorded hands are no longer that 8 rolls, but they do produce a profit:

LS-6PT,6PT,9PT,10,6,7OUT…+$62
LS-6PT,6PT,4PT,6,7OUT…+$54
LS-11FLW,8PT,9,10,7OUT…+$54
LS-3,3,8PT,10,10,9,5,7OUT…+$72
LS-10PT,8(H),8,5,8,8(H),7OUT…+$80

More food for thought for me. Of course I will not start betting 204 across on myself, but it does show you can be in net profit territory even from a less than average set of hands if you are prepared to risk more up front and then get most of your money off the table.

Yup. That's what drew me in. So many trips we'd come home with a loss only to run the numbers on the recorded rolls and discover a regression play like the MP$204 would have yielded a profit. Even playing every single hand.

Even with no long 15+ roll hands. Granted PSOs really suck, but on an average table, with a statistical average number of PSOs and PPSOs the MP$204 makes money. We won 21 of our first 28 sessions this year with this style of play. Then the PSO devil bit hard and we lost 11 of the next 13. But even losing 18 of 40 sessions we're only down about $200 for 40 sessions of high action play.

The thing about advantage-play dice-influencing is that you have to adopt a BIG-PICTURE multi-session perspective; wherein you acknowledge that you aren't going to profitably-prevail on every hand nor every session, but rather gain an OVERALL net-profit if you stick to your advantage-verified plan.

That means not jettisoning a well-validated in-casino betting-plan at the first sign of trouble. It means NOT totally re-engineering your basic toss if you have a bad session or two. And it means sticking to the bets that will make you net-profitable most often.

If you stick to those basic tenets of advantage-play; then you stay on the profit-making trail.

VinylGirl’s next stop is back at the IP.

SR1-8(H)PT,8(H)PT,4(H)PT,11,5,8,9,3,9,4PT,4PT,6,10(H),6,7OUT…+$99

VINYL-8PT,7OUT…-$204

SL2-9PT,8,6,8,9,7OUT…+$71

SO-4(H)PT,4(H)PT,9PT,8(H),5,11,5,5,7OUT…+$99

DL-5PT,6(H),8(H),6,7OUT…+$62

HARD10-8PT,5,3,10(H),5,12,5,12,7OUT…+$74

VINYL-7FLW,5PT,9,2,8,5PT,11,4PT,6,7OUT…+$71


Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:

Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$476

Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$204

Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........+$272

Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2642


MP

[VINYLGIRL]

Hey MP,
Thanks for your MP 204 across, with regression on our rolls from Biloxi. It is always interesting to see what would of happen if you stick to a plan. I know at the first sign of trouble, I bail from what could be prosperous hand. After we got home, we are starting to focus on the big picture and not be so focus on that hand or session. I know we are going to have drawbacks, but at the end of the day you have to ask yourself, will I stick to my plan and know when to leave the table. I have always wanted to play the MP's Across with regression, but I do not have the bankroll or the guts to play it. I have had too many PSO and PPSO lately and it would just mess with my mind set. I am small time player. MP I know that I read something, it was awhile back I think. I thought you had mini version of your 204-across with regression for us small time rollers. Maybe you could post that again. Thanks for your breakdown of our rolls.

[freak]

I've tried to scale it down several ways. All of the smaller variations start to lose some of the power of the play. They work, but not as efficiently. We did $96 across for a while. 15-15-18-18-15-15. The good news is you only risk $96 to a PSO. The bad news is if you get two hits on the inside before you regress to $22 inside you only have $20 in profit. If you get hits on the 4 & 10 you have $22 inside plus $32 profit. So the play loses the nice symmetry of the MP$204.

The other challenge is that regressing to $22 inside means you have to full press whenever you want to start pressing. That means you need a LONG roll before you really start to generate nice profit post-regression. For this reason we often regress to $12 each on the 6&8 versus $22 inside. Pressing from $12 allows pressing and profit. But it sure stinks if you do that and then roll 5-5-9-9.

In the end we've settled into just doing $44 inside and looking for x number of hits or x number of rolls. Whichever comes first. I typically press with the first two hits. That makes my sevens exposure the same for every hand and gives me a chance to get some $28 payments before I regress.

[Mad Professor]

Hey MP,
Thanks for your MP 204 across, with regression on our rolls from Biloxi. It is always interesting to see what would of happen if you stick to a plan. I know at the first sign of trouble, I bail from what could be prosperous hand.

After we got home, we are starting to focus on the big picture and not be so focus on that hand or session. I know we are going to have drawbacks, but at the end of the day you have to ask yourself, will I stick to my plan and know when to leave the table.

I have always wanted to play the MP's Across with regression, but I do not have the bankroll or the guts to play it. I have had too many PSO and PPSO lately and it would just mess with my mind set. I am small time player. MP I know that I read something, it was awhile back I think. I thought you had mini version of your 204-across with regression for us small time rollers. Maybe you could post that again. Thanks for your breakdown of our rolls.

I've tried to scale it down several ways. All of the smaller variations start to lose some of the power of the play. They work, but not as efficiently. We did $96 across for a while. 15-15-18-18-15-15. The good news is you only risk $96 to a PSO. The bad news is if you get two hits on the inside before you regress to $22 inside you only have $20 in profit. If you get hits on the 4 & 10 you have $22 inside plus $32 profit. So the play loses the nice symmetry of the MP$204.

The other challenge is that regressing to $22 inside means you have to full press whenever you want to start pressing. That means you need a LONG roll before you really start to generate nice profit post-regression. For this reason we often regress to $12 each on the 6&8 versus $22 inside. Pressing from $12 allows pressing and profit. But it sure stinks if you do that and then roll 5-5-9-9.

In the end we've settled into just doing $44 inside and looking for x number of hits or x number of rolls. Whichever comes first. I typically press with the first two hits. That makes my sevens exposure the same for every hand and gives me a chance to get some $28 payments before I regress.

The mini-MP $108-Across two-hit Regression is one that might fit the bill, VinylGirl.

It is set up as:

~$15 each on the Buy-4 and Buy-10

~$20 each on the Place-5 and Place-9

~$24 each on the Place-6 and Place-8

~Each paying-hit produces either a $28 or $29 net-payout.

~We take two paying hits at the $108-Across pre-regression level; then we regress everything down to $44-Inside.

~At that point, we have racked a locked-in net-profit of around +$13....so no matter what else transpires on this hand; we are already ahead in the profit-making department.

~Now instead of immediately activating my Passive-Aggressive press-schedule like we would if we had just regressed from $204-Across; we COLLECT two more paying-hits at the $44-Inside level.

~Those two $14 same-bet payouts at the $44-Inside level will kick off an additional in-rack profit of $28...which puts us around +$41 ahead of the game.

~At this point (after collecting two pre-regression payouts from our $108-Across wager, and two additional payments at the post-regression $44-Inside level...which puts us ahead by more than $40 no matter what else transpires with this hand from this point forward); we activate my Passive-Aggressive press-schedule on each subsequent paying-hit right up to the end of this hand.

To that end, let me show you how much in-rack net-profit each press-level ADDS.

~For the 6 or 8 the press-schedule looks like this:

$12......$18......$30.....$42.....$60.....$90.....$120....
$150....$180.....$240.....$300....$420.....$600
.....$900....$1200, etc.

The added in-rack profit for each press-level looks like this…+$8…+$9...
+$23…+$31…+$40…+$75…+$110…+$145…
+$150…+$220…+$230…+$310…+$400…+$750


~For the 5 or 9 the press-schedule looks like this:

$10....$15.....$25.....$35.....$50.....$75.....$100....$125.....
$150....$200....$250.....$350.....$500....
$750....$1000, etc.

The added in-rack profit for each press-level looks like this: …+$9…+$11…
+$25…+$34…+$45…+$80…+$115…+$150…+$160…+$230…+$250
…+$340…+$450



This is VinylGirl’s after-lunch session at the Hard Rock showing how the MP $204-Across Regression would have fared:

HARD10-12,3,11,6,3,4,10,7OUT…+$54

VINYL-4PT,10,4PT,8PT,2,5,5,9,8PT,4 9H,9,11, 12,6,8,2,7OUT…+$127

HOOK-6PT,10,6PT,3,2,5PT, 6,7OUT…+$62

SO-5PT,4, 8,5PT,6(H)PT,8,9,2,7OUT…+$80

HARD10-8PT,8PT,5PT,6, 6(H),8,9,2,7OUT…+$79

VINYL-6PT,11,7OUT…-$204


Session-summary using the MP $204-Across Regression:

Gross-win………………………….......……............................…+$402

Gross-loss…………………………….......................................-$204

Net-gain for this session using the MP-$204…..…….……........+$198

Running-total for member-thrown hands using the MP-$204...+$2840



MP