Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
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The Jofer
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Most of these responses make it seem as if none of you actually believe that any statistically significant deviation actually occurs. As if your control over the dice is a short term phenomenon that asymptotes towards random the more you play.
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Jofer,
I think you are drawing the wrong conclusion.
Statistically significant deviation certainly occurs and provides opportunity for winning a negative expectation game. However this is more of a short term thing. Such variance or the affects of such variance become more diluted as drops of colored water absorbed into the vast endless ocean of clear numbers in the long term. Colored drop short term, growing clear ocean long term.
I stated that I believed long term had been reached once such short term statistically significant deviations became long term statistically insignificant. I also stated that a DI advantage no matter how good will also melt away in that ever growing ocean of numbers long term. That long term may be further out but it will be reached.
Kelph
I think you are drawing the wrong conclusion.
Statistically significant deviation certainly occurs and provides opportunity for winning a negative expectation game. However this is more of a short term thing. Such variance or the affects of such variance become more diluted as drops of colored water absorbed into the vast endless ocean of clear numbers in the long term. Colored drop short term, growing clear ocean long term.
I stated that I believed long term had been reached once such short term statistically significant deviations became long term statistically insignificant. I also stated that a DI advantage no matter how good will also melt away in that ever growing ocean of numbers long term. That long term may be further out but it will be reached.
Kelph
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The Jofer
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Kelph wrote: I stated that I believed long term had been reached once such short term statistically significant deviations became long term statistically insignificant. I also stated that a DI advantage no matter how good will also melt away in that ever growing ocean of numbers long term. That long term may be further out but it will be reached.
Kelph
The way this reads to me is "I may be lucky in the short run but if I keep at this game I'm bound move towards zero in the long run." This is not unlike a lot of peoples views on the stock market. Many think that any Alpha you may achieve in the short run is do to variance, not any sort of "skill" and that in the long run your returns will average out to market returns. While this might be the case for many it's clearly not the case for all. If I'm misinterpreting what you're trying to say please correct me.
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Jofer,
It's not that simple or straight forward.
Variance may be a natural occurrence or created by a skill or a combination of both.
If one is only affected by natural variance when it unexpectedly comes and goes then yes I believe long term will eventually show number frequency to be pretty close to predicted expectation and a player $$ loss.
A DI and the quality of the DI have great influence on how the long term plays out. Individual DI advantage varies as does the quality of individual DI play. Do DIs strictly play to their advantage or do they also make bad bets on their own hand and those of randies? Every bad bet is added to the long term and dilutes any advantage. Even strict DI play that has strong short term affects will have a smaller and smaller impact long term due to the volume of numbers.
Specifically to your response.....Could number frequency be statistically close to predicted results long term for a specific player and that player to still be ahead? Yes but I think it requires discipline. Number frequency given enough time and enough numbers will eventually statistically approach predicted expectation but that's not the same as saying that automatically negates a player's advantage. It's not whether long term number frequency was altered, it's whether money was made when those numbers were thrown vs. amount lost in each short term session.
However I believe people are people and that means having flawed natures. Over the long term too many bad bets, over betting in bad situations, foolish bets, the need for action and fun, and a host of other reasons including greed will keep many DIs from having a long term profit.
My take.
Kelph
It's not that simple or straight forward.
Variance may be a natural occurrence or created by a skill or a combination of both.
If one is only affected by natural variance when it unexpectedly comes and goes then yes I believe long term will eventually show number frequency to be pretty close to predicted expectation and a player $$ loss.
A DI and the quality of the DI have great influence on how the long term plays out. Individual DI advantage varies as does the quality of individual DI play. Do DIs strictly play to their advantage or do they also make bad bets on their own hand and those of randies? Every bad bet is added to the long term and dilutes any advantage. Even strict DI play that has strong short term affects will have a smaller and smaller impact long term due to the volume of numbers.
Specifically to your response.....Could number frequency be statistically close to predicted results long term for a specific player and that player to still be ahead? Yes but I think it requires discipline. Number frequency given enough time and enough numbers will eventually statistically approach predicted expectation but that's not the same as saying that automatically negates a player's advantage. It's not whether long term number frequency was altered, it's whether money was made when those numbers were thrown vs. amount lost in each short term session.
However I believe people are people and that means having flawed natures. Over the long term too many bad bets, over betting in bad situations, foolish bets, the need for action and fun, and a host of other reasons including greed will keep many DIs from having a long term profit.
My take.
Kelph
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The Jofer
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Kelph, I guess I'm looking at it from the other side. I'm not as interested in profits or losses (in the theoretical discussion of influence) but if a definable shift in variance is obvious. If i can throw the dice in such a fashion that 2s and 12s come up, say twice as often as youd expect, and i can show this as consistent influence over a long period of time, it stands to reason that even if i foolishly don't bet the hops, I am still influencing the outcome so that you would have more reason to believe that in a million or a billion more rolls, 2s and 12s will appear closer to 1 in 18 instead of 1 in 36. It could just be that i was lucky in the past, but if I truely have influence it should persist in the future. Once again when i said zero i did not mean dollars, i meant number variance. If the first is true the issue is one of learning to bet. If the second is true you might as well fling them hard against the back wall, or not even play.
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The Claremont Kid
- Posts: 84
- Joined: Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:35 pm
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
Interesting discussion but when we talk about short runs and long run aren't we leaving out repeating number or individual number frequencies. Isn't this where DI comes in? Where does SRR and #of box numbers intersect? Live casino rolls are so hard to track and practice rolls need to be handicapped to provide any strength in developing a betting strategy to approach the tables with any real confidence.
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spiker
Re: Have you reached "The Long Run" yet?
You never know what will happen. .this is why we keep playing. .