The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Setting and influencing the dice roll is just part of the picture. To beat the dice you have to know how to bet the dice. Whether you call it a "system," a "strategy," or just a way to play - this is the place to discuss it.

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The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by heavy » Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:04 am

Okay, I blew the chance to do the Eight Bets of Hanukkah since Hanukkah officially ends today. However, if my calendar reading skills are on point I can still squeeze in the Twelve Bets of Christmas. I thought I'd start a thread and post ONE BET PER DAY as part of this exercise. These bets will be those I consider to be the BEST BETS at casino craps. I'll also give you a brief explanation as to why I selected that particular bet as one of the best. With the stage set, I'll now give you the First Bet of Christmas:

Day One - Don't Come

I'm sure some of you were expecting the Pass Line or even the Don't Pass as the first bet. I selected the Don't Come first because I believe it has a couple of advantages over those bets. First off, you get to watch the shooter's first toss and determine whether or not you believe he is a skilled shooter. If he does appear to be a skilled shooter you may want to move on to the next day's bet. Assuming he is a random roller, however, there are few bets better than the Don't Come. Secondly, it is easy to hedge the Don't Come bet by laying against the shooter's point. If he establishes the four or ten as the point you can lay $41 no four to hedge a $20 Don't Come bet. If the point is five or nine you can lay $31 against either of those. If the point is six or eight the correct lay is $25. You only use the lay bet for one roll - to hedge the establishment of the Don't Come bet. At that point the second number rolled by the shooter becomes your point. Next, the Don't Come, like the Don't Pass, carries the lowest vig of any bet on the layout with the exception of the free odds bet. Last of all, your wager is exposed to one less roll than the Don't Pass would be. In other words, once established you're one roll closer to a potential payoff. And don't forget, the odds are that the shooter will seven on or by his fourth roll - which is why a "four count" strategy makes more sense than a "five count." So there you have it, folks. The First Bet of Christmas - the Don't Come.

Check in tomorrow for the Second Bet of Christmas.
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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by London Shooter » Mon Dec 14, 2015 9:51 am

Heavy I look forward to this series.

Do you have any hard and fast rules about taking odds on your don't come bets? When I play I leave them naked. Sometimes I like to establish two or three DCs if I can, with the rule being to stop betting DC if a previous one has been knocked off. I also like the play when you have DC(s) established and the shooter makes a point, you then also place a passline bet - transition move to the rightside if you wish - and then the 7 comes on the come-out. That is sweet.

I guess you answer will start with "It depends....." but welcome your thoughts.

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by 220Inside » Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:53 am

What about a thread for this one's evil twin, the 12 worst bets of Christmas :twisted:

This should be a good thread though...it's off to a great start and I'm also curious about LS' question.

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by heavy » Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:16 pm

I guess you answer will start with "It depends....." but welcome your thoughts.
Depends.

I have a couple of different approaches to the Don'ts. Generally if I'm playing the strategy I mentioned above I do not lay odds. However, if I make a $20 DC bet as mentioned I'll follow that with a $15 DC bet. The first bet hedges the second against the seven so you have no exposure except to the eleven. With two bets established I'll sit tight and wait for a decision. If I get knocked off either of those two DC bets then I'll "chase" that loss by laying odds on the remaining DC bet. If I get knocked off both bets then I'm through betting on that shooter for that trip around the table.
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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by heavy » Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:17 am

Well, it's "after midnight" here in my neck of the woods, which makes it "tomorrow" and time for the Second Bet of Christmas. And believe it or not, my Second Bet of Christmas is none other than the much loved - much hated Pass Line Bet. Other than the free odds bet the Pass Line bet carries the second lowest vig (marginally) on the layout. Only the Don't Pass/Don't Come is better. And please note that I did not list the Come bet in the same category as the Pass Line bet - just as I do not view the Don't Come and the Don't Pass as equally advantageous.

So what about the Pass Line bet? Well, the simple truth of the matter is that I am not a fan of this wager. However, it's the price of admission if you want to toss the dice - and that's primarily how I look at it. With that said, for fans of systematic play - and most systematic play revolves around flat betting - the Pass Line bet can be very strong. It's a wager that's subject to a LOT of variance because it will LOSE two out of three times once the point is established. However, on the Come Out it's the only advantage bet on the layout. You have six ways to win on the seven plus two ways to win on the eleven - versus four ways to lose on the craps numbers. So you have a two to one advantage for that one roll - the Come Out roll. And it's not uncommon to see players toss three, four, five, or more "natural" winners on the Come Out. And THAT gives you an opportunity to increase that Pass Line bet out of funds you just won.

For example, let's say you have $10 on the Pass Line and the shooter tosses a seven. The dealer pays you $10. Lock up $5 of that and stack $5 on top of the original wager. The shooter tosses another seven and you win $15 - but your "at risk" dollars amounted to just $5 - since you locked up $5 on the original pay-off. Using that logic - you had just $5 at risk to win $15. So lock up $10 of that pay off and press your Pass Line bet to $20. Now you have a $5 profit in your rack and what amounts to a "free" bet for $20 on the Pass Line. At that point - even if the bet loses you're still $5 ahead.

There have been many great progressions developed for flat betting the Pass Line (or Don't Pass) through the years. Grafstein had some great ones. I tend to be a bit more aggressive. But there's a strategy out there for everyone. Of course, when "Randy" has the dice the "rules" change - at least from my perspective. The best bet on Randy is "no bet."

Recap:

First Bet of Christmas - Don't Come
Second Bet of Christmas - Pass Line
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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by 220Inside » Tue Dec 15, 2015 10:32 am

Do the progressions on the pass line bet change how you place odds on your pass line bet once the point is established?

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by London Shooter » Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:37 am

Yes, I'll jump in here with what I know. The passline progression stuff usually works most efficiently in a joint where you get the highest level of odds. With 3/4/5 places you have to up the base passline bet quite often in the series, but if say you are playing in Heavy's perfect world casino and you are getting 100 x odds as the max, then you can keep you passline at the min each time and then go up in odds on your progression via whatever chosen method eg if you bet passline and 5 x odds as your starting point on a table which allows 100 x odds you may have this your series:

5/5/7/10/15/25/40/60/100

The above means you can go 9 points whilst still staying on min passline bet and just progressing the odds each time.

Of course in the real world, finding such places is almost unheard of, though in mississippi the casinos will offer you a lot more than 3/4/5 with most being at least 10 or 20 x. I believe the Horseshoe in Tunica offers 100 x odds.

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by heavy » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:11 pm

Generally when I talk about flat bet progressions on the Pass Line (or Don't Pass) I'm talking about progressing the line bet only. No odds figure into the wager. Now, LS has apparently cribbed off my notes for this series and figured out that the Free Odds bet is coming down the line - for just the reason he mentioned. You can run a negative progression on the Free Odds bet while staying at table minimum on the Pass Line. And when you max out those odds - you can increase your flat bet size. So in that 100X game in Mississippi (or Louisiana) you can have a $5 Pass Line bet with $500 odds. Running a fibonacci progression on odds - looking for two consecutive wins - you'd be betting the Free Odds starting at $5 - 5 - 10 - 15 - 25 - 40 - 65 - 105 - 170 - 275 - 445. That's an 11 step negative progression, and when you hit max there you can increase the line bet and move up from there.

So why don't we all go to the casino and play conservative progressions like this? Because we're all "action" players. And we'll talk about that more in the days to come too.
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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by London Shooter » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:02 am

Ah, OK I seem to have jumped in and got ahead of things. With Grafstein et al writing in a different period, I'm sure these days they would re-think their passline progressions somewhat given I believe they were writing in a time when only single or double odds were available.

I'll try not to do any more spoilers on this festive bet thread :)

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by heavy » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:49 am

No problem, LS. Participation highly appreciated!

The THIRD Bet of Christmas - Buy the Four and Ten

Yes, I know. That's actually two bets. But I believe SOME numbers should always be bet in pairs. This is particularly true if those numbers are hitting frequently. Remember (excluding the vig) these bets pay 2 - 1 when they win. So one hit on either essentially "pays for" both bets. At that point you have the equivalent of two free bets on the table. At the $25 level you actually have $1 (the juice) at risk to win $50. $50 for $1 ain't a bad deal.

Now, let's talk a little bit about pushing the house on the four and ten. Officially, if you go back to the Grafstein days, the four and ten buy bets were $20 with a $1 commission. The commission is 5% of the bet. But as a courtesy to green chip bettors the casinos set the breakage (the point at which they charge an additional dollar on the bet) at $26. In other words, you could buy the four and ten for $25 and pay $1 commission, but if you tried to buy it for $26 they wanted $2. Through the years players have pushed back against that - first taking it to $30, and eventually taking it all the way to $39 in some casinos. The house edge on a $39 buy bet on the four or ten with only $1 commission is 2.5%. It's still more vig than a lot of players want to fight, but when the four and ten are streaking it's a powerful wager. If the commission is only collected on a win the vig is about half that, making it a better bet than placing the six and eight.

I take a simple mathematical approach to betting the four and ten. Since they pay two for one I track both. The four should show up an average of three times in thirty six rolls - or one in twelve. The same goes for the ten. But since I bet them in pairs I'm looking for either or both to roll twice in fewer than six rolls. Let's say the shooter establishes the 10 as his point, then rolls 6 - 8 - 4 . . . when he rolls that four I'm going to Buy the four and ten. To me it's an indicator that the ten and four are rolling more frequently than expected. I'm hoping that trend continues.

When it comes to betting the Four and Ten, most of you have seen or read about my progression. Starting at $25 on each, I double up on the first winning bet. So let's continue with the example above. 10 - 6 - 8 - 4 (bet the four and ten) - 9 - 4 . . . when the four rolls I'll drop the $1 commission (or $2 if they're collecting up front) and press the four up to $50. At that point the four becomes my primary number. If the ten rolls next I'll collect my $50 and rack it. But if the four rolls again I'll drop the $5 commission and press it to $100, locking up $50. And for those of you who don't remember it - here's my progression:

25 - 50 - 100 - 250 - 500 - 1000 - 2500 - 5000

Ten hits from the first four rolled to a $10,000 pay off. Beats the hell out of a Fire bet.
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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by London Shooter » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:38 pm

Buy bets are one thing we don't have in the UK.

We get 9½ to 5 on placing the 4 and 10, so I believe that is half the edge of the basic US place bet of 9/5, but we never get the opportunity to reach the 1.67 house edge that you can achieve in the States.

A couple of questions:

1. At what level do 4 and 10 generally become automatic buys?
2. Is it very common for casinos to auto-buy your bets at the required level or do you have to remember to ask?
3. Does the famous free buy of 4 and 10 still exist at the Santa Anita star or is that now just an urban myth these days along with treble on the 2 on a field bet?

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by 220Inside » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:03 pm

Depends on the casino, in my experience. Neither of the CT casinos, or the ones I've played in Philadelphia, do auto-buy. You have to ask.

There were a couple of casinos in LV on my last trip which did do auto-buy on 4-10. One was as low as $20. I didn't keep track of which ones were doing autobuys, but for some reason Mandalay Bay comes to mind as one of them.

I usually just state my buy bet when making it. If the dealer tells me that they do it automatically, I'll stop announcing my intent to buy when making a bet from then on

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by London Shooter » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:51 pm

Thanks for the info 22. That has just reminded me that I did have one conversation with a dealer in Ballys on the recent LV trip and he said the automatically did the buy at $20. It's definitely something I need to keep in mind as my betting levels increase in case I end up in places where they don't auto do it.

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by davper » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:29 pm

22Inside wrote:Depends on the casino, in my experience. Neither of the CT casinos, or the ones I've played in Philadelphia, do auto-buy. You have to ask.

There were a couple of casinos in LV on my last trip which did do auto-buy on 4-10. One was as low as $20. I didn't keep track of which ones were doing autobuys, but for some reason Mandalay Bay comes to mind as one of them.

I usually just state my buy bet when making it. If the dealer tells me that they do it automatically, I'll stop announcing my intent to buy when making a bet from then on
Foxwoods in CT is an automatic buy at $20. No dollar upfront and only a dollar vig for $35 bet.

Mohegan is the opposite. You must ask and pay the dollar upfront.

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by 220Inside » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:03 pm

Thanks Dave. It's been a while since I've been to Foxwoods. We usually go to Mohegan when we do a road trip to CT.

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by acpa » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:34 pm

It has been three years since I have been to Tunica, but some of the casinos, I'm sure of Sams but think there were others also, would allow you to buy the 5/9 at $16, vig paid only on wins.

Therefore while a $15 place 5/9 pays $21, a buy 5/9 for a dollar more, pays $23 (i.e. $24 minus dollar vig). The extra $1 get you $2 more, therefore always your buy bet even. i.e don't bet $25, bet $24 or $26.

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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by heavy » Thu Dec 17, 2015 12:43 am

Well, I'm going to be up early and hitting the road in the morning, so I'll go ahead and post the Fourth Bet of Christmas fifteen minutes early.

The Fourth Bet of Christmas.

Place the Six and Eight. Like the Four and Ten, I bet the Six and Eight in pairs initially. And since the vig is only 1.51% on the Six and Eight, I rarely wait until the shooter rolls one to Place these numbers. My thinking is that there are 10 ways to roll the Six and Eight (combined) versus 6 ways to roll the Seven. Odds are I’m going to get at least one hit on the Six or Eight every hand.

My preferred strategy starts with $18 each on the Six and Eight. On the first hit on either number I drop $3 on top of the $21 pay out and tell the dealer to “make it look like $42.” That $24 added to the $18 you have on the number that just rolled presses the bet up to $42. I like this play because – in Grafstein’s words – “you only back a winning horse.” The shooter has proven he can toss the number that just rolled. Why bet the sister number if it hasn’t rolled yet? I have personally tossed hands where I’ve thrown twenty-plus sixes and NO eights because of the unique characteristics of my throw. These kinds of things happen all the time. So that’s why I press the winning number – and I let the dice decide which number that is so I don’t even have to think about it.

Once at the $42 level on a number – I do not press the sister number. I’ll keep that bet at $18 for the duration of the hand (unless the pressed up number goes to sleep and the sister rolls twice within four to five throws. Then I’ll get on it). The pressed up number pays $50 for $1 each time it hits. I typically collect 2 – 3 times before pressing. My press is from $42 to $90 – collect two or three times – then go from $90 to $180 and collect two to three times. If the hand continues and the number rolls a fourth time at that level I’ll drop $30 out of my rack on top of the fourth pay out and press that number up to $420. Notice that we’re at exactly 10X the original pressed up bet now. And the pay off on that bet when it repeats is $500 for $10. If you wanted to press up from there then follow the same 10X rule. Go from $500 to $900 to $1800. Make sense? Of course, you’ll rarely get more than $420 on the table with this play and you may be content just to sit at that level and collect $500 for $10 for the rest of the hand.

When I’m betting across I like to use my inside numbers to “pay for” all of the bets before pressing. So I might have $96 across and I’d collect on five hits before pressing unless the four and/or ten rolled. If either of them rolls I treat is the same as I did on the Third Bet of Christmas. I pick the number that rolled and press it up quickly. With $15 on the four and ten the payoff would be $27 on the number that rolled. I like to take $10 of that to “buy” the number that rolled and rack the difference. From that point on the play is exactly the same as the Third Bet.
Some players prefer to regress versus pressing the Six and Eight. Regression strategies are generally quite strong. They tend to reduce bankroll volatility, which means you have fewer catastrophic losses. On the other hand, since you’re regressing instead of pressing you tend to have fewer big wins.

For years my favorite regression play started with $18 each on the Six and Eight. The first hit paid $21 and I’d tell the dealer to “make my action look like $22 inside. At that point I’d have $1 at risk (from my original bet) to win $7 on the next inside number. Would I risk $1 to win $7 on a bet where I have 18 ways to win versus 7 ways to lose? All day long.

Another regression play you might like off the Six and Eight begins with $30 each on those numbers. The first hit on either pays $35. You drop $1 on top of the $35 pay off and tell the dealer to “make my Six and Eight look like $18 each.” At this point you have $36 action on the table with only $1 at risk to win $21. On the second hit you’ll have a guaranteed $20 profit for the shooter. After that it’s “off to the races.”

The Six and Eight are definitely right up there near the top of the Twelve Bets of Christmas list. They’re known as the “steak and eggs” bet for a reason. There’s been more money made by players on the six and eight than you can imagine. However, on the flip side, that bet has made more money for the casino than you can imagine as well. Why? Because it’s one of the most popular bets on the table. But even though it’s a “good” bet – it’s still a negative expectation wager. The truth is – the Banker bet at Baccarat carries a lower house edge.

The Fourth Bet of Christmas – Place the Six and Eight.
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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by heavy » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:55 am

Recapping the first four bets of Christmas:

1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by heavy » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:59 am

The Fifth Bet of Christmas - the Free Odds Bet

Imagine this. Two pals play craps every day for 20 years. One plays $50 on the Pass Line on every shooter. The other one also plays $50 on the Pass Line on every shooter - but he also takes $300 odds once a point is established. After they've played every day for 20 years - some 7300 or so casino sessions - which one will have won the most money and which will have lost the most? Now let’s ask the same question about two Don’t players. They each play $50 Don’t Pass bets, but one lays $300 odds.

Well, that's a bit of a trick question. Why? Because the house has no advantage on the Free Odds bet and neither does the player. Over the long run it’s a wash. The same goes whether it’s a right side play or a wrong side play. In fact, since the Pass/Don’t Pass bet is essentially a “coin flip” bet over the long run – all four of these players should end up with pretty much the same amount of money in the rack after their 20 years of play. So why do the bean counters always tell you that you should always take max odds? Well, that's simple enough. It's because taking max odds reduces the house edge to almost nothing. That doesn't make you a winner - but it does help you lose less, which typically means you get to play longer before going broke. . . IF you are playing a random game.

As dice influencers – we’re not playing a coin-flip game. With a little skill we can consistently win more than we lose and win more often. The key, of course, is to limit our action to dice influences and avoid betting on random rollers.

The house has no advantage on the Free Odds bet, they can still “profit” from that wager over the long run. How? The Free Odds bet increases bankroll volatility. For example, let's assume a player has $6000 to play at a 3.4.5X odds game. He places $1000 on the Pass Line and the six is established as the point. He takes $5000 in odds. If he wins that bet he'll make $7000 for his trouble and his bankroll will increase to $12000. If he loses his bet he's broke. That's fairly substantial volatility. The benefit to the casino in all this comes when players over-bet their bankroll. They lose all of their money quickly and move on – making room for another player at the table. The casino “sucks” players in with offers of high odds – but when the player bets beyond his bankroll the casino “shucks” them of their money and makes room for another player at the table. It’s all about the cash flow.

I always take Free Odds when I have a Pass Line bet. There are several reasons for this – not the least of which is the fact that I can utilize the wager to run a negative progression. As mentioned further up this thread, in a 100X odds game you can run a Fibonacci progression on the Free Odds bet while staying at table minimum on the Pass Line. And when you max out those odds - you can increase your flat bet size. So in that 100X game in Mississippi (or Louisiana) you can have a $5 Pass Line bet with $500 odds. Running a fibonacci progression on odds - looking for two consecutive wins - you'd be betting the Free Odds starting at $5 - 5 - 10 - 15 - 25 - 40 - 65 - 105 - 170 - 275 - 445. That's an 11 step negative progression, and when you hit max there you can increase the line bet and move up from there.

Beyond systematic play, I’ll also use the Free Odds as a “get back” bet if I find myself approaching a loss limit. $50 on the Free Odds when the point is four or ten can put you back in the game. Of course, if it’s your last $50 it can also send you packing.

There is a third way you can use Free Odds to your advantage. If you find yourself in a casino with table limits less than you want you can use the Free Odds bet to get around the table limits. For example, let’s say you’re dialed in with your V-2 set and are banging out fours and tens like crazy. You’re playing a $5 20X odds game with a $500 max bet. As I have demonstrated on several occasions, it’s not that difficult to get your four or ten pressed up to $500. Starting with $25 you simply press to $50, $100, $250, $500. Four hits and you’re there. If the casino allows Put bets – and most do – you can then Put the number for $5 with $100 in odds. On every subsequent hit you can press again, up to whatever max odds they’ll allow.

At the end of the day there's nothing "free" about Free Odds. You can't just walk up to the table and drop $50 behind the line and expect to get paid if the point rolls - unless you have a Pass Line bet. The Pass Line bet (or Come bet or Don't Pass or Don't Come) is the "cost" associated with the Free Odds bet. No line bet - no free odds. It's that simple. But handled properly the Free Odds wager is one of the best bets on the table. If you’re going to bet the Pass, Come, Don’t Pass, or Don’t Come then the mathematically correct play is to take or lay the odds.

Recapping the first five bets of Christmas:

1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
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Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas

Post by heavy » Sat Dec 19, 2015 4:07 pm

So far the Twelve Bets of Christmas have looked like this:

1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds

Time for the Sixth Bet of Christmas - which some of you have long been expecting. The Sixth Bet of Christmas it the Don't Pass.

Okay, admittedly the Don't Pass has a lower house edge (slightly) than the Pass Line bet or Placing the Six and Eight. But it faces one major obstacle which is why I let it slide down my list for a few days. That obstacle? The Seven and Eleven on the Come Out roll. There are eight ways for that wager to lose on the Come Out - versus three ways (aces - ace-deuce) to win. The twelve, as you know, is barred - and that's where the house gets its edge on this bet. If they did not bar the twelve the bet would give an advantage to the players. Once the Don't Pass bet is established it will win roughly two out of three times. That is a beautiful thing. But it also presents a challenge - that of getting the point established to begin with. And this is one of the few times when I'll say that hedging is okay - sort-of.

I said "sort of" because it all depends on your personal "sevens tolerance" and your approach to hedging this bet. For me, when betting at lower levels - say $5 to $25 - it just doesn't make sense paying the juice required for a hedge bet. Just go with the "gamble." If you are unwilling to go with the gamble because your sevens tolerance is on the low end of the $5 to $25 range - you probably don't need to be standing at the craps table in the first place.

For this example we'll talk in terms of playing a $25 Don't Pass bet. It's a decent size based bet, and if you're playing on a $5 game you'll no doubt get rated as a green chip bettor, which can be a good thing. If I were playing at that level and it was at the upper range of my sevens tolerance level then there are several ways I might consider hedging it. Most will involve laying one number or another on the Come Out. That way if the seven shows up on the Come Out you'll win $20 less the vig. Bets you might make include $41 no four or ten, $31 no five or nine, and $25 no six or eight. My personal choice is to lay against the four, but it's up to you. If the four rolls I'll lose my $41. Some players with a lesser sevens tolerance will lay $25 no six or no eight. Over the long run you'll lose pretty much the same amount of money on either bets. However, I like the fact that I can cut the ways to lose on the four down to two by adding a $3 hard four - working on the Come Out.

Whichever number you decide to lay, you only keep that bet up for one decision. Once the Don't Pass point is established you take down the Lay bets and wait for a decision. Let's say the eight is the point. Some players who are less sevens tolerant than others might wave that bet off and tell the dealer they don't want the Don't action. They'll just pick up the bet. You can do that with a Don't Pass bet. The reason the casino lets you do that is because it's to their advantage if you pick it up. Once that bet is established you have six ways to win versus five ways to win. You're essentially booking the house. Are you going to lose that bet some of the time? Sure. But over the long run you'll be a winner with it once it's established. If you're afraid of those six to five odds you can cut them down to three to two by simply tossing our $3 on the Hard Eight. Then, if the eight rolls hard - you'll win $27. You'll lose the $25 Don't Pass bet but the hardway win offsets it.

Another reason to bet the Don't Pass at a level greater than the table minimum is that it gives you the opportunity to bet the Don't Come using your Don't Pass as the hedge. If you have a $25 Don't Pass bet up and working you can follow that with a $15 Don't Come. If the seven shows you lose the $15 Don't Come, but you win $25 on the Don't Pass - netting at $10 win. Of any other point number rolls the $15 Don't Come bet is established as a point. At this point you have the same options you had on the First Bet of Christmas - which includes laying odds should you get knocked off one of the numbers. Refresh your memory on these techniques at the top of the thread.

Last of all, since the Don't Pass wins two times out of three once the point is established, it lends itself very well to negative progression betting. As usual, I'll recommend the Fibonacci approach. At the $25 level your action would be 25 - 25 - 50 - 75 - 125 - 200. That's a $450 committment to a six step Fibo. If you're playing the Don'ts on a streak of six passes we need to sign you up for a class on charting, streaks and trends. When playing the Fibo, you're looking for two consecutive wins - then you start over at level one. So if you lose the first three bets but win at the $75 level - your next bet is also $75. If you win THAT bet then you start over at $25. If you LOSE that bet you continue with $125 - $200 . . . up to your loss limit.

If you prefer to play a positive progression then by all means consider a modified Paroli. A true Parilo is the opposite of a Martingale. You double your bet after each win. Logic tells you that that dog won't hunt because you're never taking a profit off the table. But starting at the $25 level you can increase your bet by the table minimum after each win and manage quite nicely. Let's say you're playing at $10 game and your first wager is $25. If that bet wins you lock up $15 and press your Don't Pass bet to $35. If that one wins the next bet is $45 - then $55, $65, $75, etc. If you lose a wager you immediately start the progression over at $25. With this play you're always pressing winning bets - not losing bets - and you're always locking money up on every win.

So here's the recap on the Twelve Bets of Christmas so far:

1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass

Thoughts?
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy

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