The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
-
London Shooter
- Posts: 2590
- Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:15 am
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
I've always thought that if you are playing DP and want to hedge with a no 4 or 10 that it makes sense, namely that if you get whacked on your lay when the point is established, you at least then have the least likely point for your DP bet.
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
And for those of you who did not watch the Democratic debate tonight - the Cowboys by 1 was not a good bet. Oh, it was good at the end of the first half - just not at the end of the second.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Just to recap where we are at this point - The Twelve Bets of Christmas:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
That gets us to the Seventh Bet of Christmas - The Come Bet
Those of you who have played with me before probably know that I refer to my Come bets as “craps magnets.” If a two, three, or twelve is going to roll during someone’s hand it seems like it always shows up with I decide to convert to a “Place to Come” strategy and put my bets on auto-pilot.
Before we get too deep into the Come Bet philosophy, let me expand a bit on why Place bettors prefer that method of play over Come betting. Imagine two friends walking up to the table, buying in for equal amounts, and commencing play. One is a Pass Line and Come bettor with odds. The other is a Place Bettor who avoids the Pass Line. The Place bettor never has to worry about “contract” bets. He has control over his action and can take it down at any time. The Pass and Come bettor’s flat bets are locked in. They are contract bets. The player can take odds on those bets and he can turn his odds off or take them down. But he cannot turn off the contract bets. They work at all time.
Now let’s imagine these pals are playing a $5 - 3X-4X-5X odds game. The Place bettor places the six and eight for $30 each. The Come bettor makes a $5 Come bet. When the six rolls the $5 travles to the six and he takes $25 odds. He now has $30 at risk – exactly the same as the Place bettor. However, the Place bettor just got paid on that six and he collected $35. At this point his six is “paid for” and he has no sevens risk on that number. The six has to roll a second time for the Come bettor to be paid. Let’s say that happens and he has another $5 Come bet on the layout. The Come bet “travels” to the six, although most dealer will simply tap the Come bet with the payoff on the six that’s already up and say “off and on for $35.” He’ll then pay the Place bettor his $35. Note that the Place bettor and the Come bettor both were paid $35 and both had the same amount of money wagered on the six - $5 with $25 odds for the Come bettor, and $30 Placed by his pal. But the Place bettor has now collected $70 total while the Come bettor has only collected $35. He also has the option, if he wishes, to take all of his action down and lock up that $70 win on this shooter. The Come bettor can take down his odds, but he’s still stuck with a flat bet that is a contract wager. And that is why most experienced craps players prefer Place betting to Come betting.
So why the heck would anyone Come bet? Well, mathematically it is the correct way to play the right side of the game, assuming you have the bankroll to survive the volatility of playing the odds and are a true long run player. And, as I mentioned in the opening paragraph of this article, the Come Bet is an integral part of the Place to Come strategy for players who want to put their bets on auto-pilot and not have to “think” about what their action is.
Place to Come is a good way to play if you have a fixed “max bet” in mind that’s part of your play. I know a lot of guys whose sevens tolerance drops substantially if they have more than $160 on the table. This player might start out with a Pass Line bet, then play $64 across including the point, or $54 or $52 across, depending on the point, excluding the point. He might have a “press and take” strategy in mind that sees him going “up a unit” on every hit – or playing a press and take strategy that involves a full press every other hit. Regardless, sometime during his hand he’ll get to the point that he’s uncomfortable putting more money on the table. At that point he has a couple of options. He can regress all of his action back town to $64, $54 or $52 across and start over – or he can drop $10 in the Come and let the dice decide where to go from there. Letting the dice decide is my preferred play.
Let’s say he has $10 on the Four - $25 on the Five - $30 each on the Six and Eight - $20 on the nine – and $25 (buy bet) on the Ten. He drops $10 in the Come and the next roll is the Five. Odds on the five need to be even. It’s a 3X-4X-5X odds game so the most he can take is $40 odds. Since the five is already pressed up to $25 – take it to $30, take down the $25 Place Bet and put another $10 in the Come. Next the Ten rolls. You collect $50 off the Buy bet. Since the Buy bet is coming down you don’t have to pay the juice again (assuming they collected it up front). You take $30 odds on the ten (max odds). Now you make a third $10 Come bet and follow the same process again and again. Once the Place Bets are worked off you’ll have a full layout of Come Bets with Odds. Then you just keep making Come bets and as long as you roll box numbers they’ll keep handing you chips. However, if you've made half-a-dozen or so Come bets and one or two of your numbers is still sitting there with a Place bet on it you might consider just taking it down. In Heavy parlance, it's not paying its rent so it gets evicted.
Another time when I use the Come bet is when I’m playing the Don’t Pass – Don’t Come and a player has just made his Pass and established the second point. My experience has been that shooters often seven out immediately after making their first pass. So I’ll switch from the Don’t Come to the Come for one or two rolls just to see if I can double up on a win.
Last of all, when I'm tracking a table and there's some sort of "disturbance in the force" like a shooter's girlfriend or significant other walking up and asking him for another $100 for the slots, or the dice flying off the table, or a stick change, or any of the other "superstitions" I deal with every time I'm at the table - I can turn my bets off and toss out a Come bet to hedge any contract bets I have up and on. It's a low vig option to hopping the sevens.
Do I like the Come Bet? Not particularly. But it does have it’s uses, so I do play it from time to time. In certain situations it’s highly recommended.
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
That gets us to the Seventh Bet of Christmas - The Come Bet
Those of you who have played with me before probably know that I refer to my Come bets as “craps magnets.” If a two, three, or twelve is going to roll during someone’s hand it seems like it always shows up with I decide to convert to a “Place to Come” strategy and put my bets on auto-pilot.
Before we get too deep into the Come Bet philosophy, let me expand a bit on why Place bettors prefer that method of play over Come betting. Imagine two friends walking up to the table, buying in for equal amounts, and commencing play. One is a Pass Line and Come bettor with odds. The other is a Place Bettor who avoids the Pass Line. The Place bettor never has to worry about “contract” bets. He has control over his action and can take it down at any time. The Pass and Come bettor’s flat bets are locked in. They are contract bets. The player can take odds on those bets and he can turn his odds off or take them down. But he cannot turn off the contract bets. They work at all time.
Now let’s imagine these pals are playing a $5 - 3X-4X-5X odds game. The Place bettor places the six and eight for $30 each. The Come bettor makes a $5 Come bet. When the six rolls the $5 travles to the six and he takes $25 odds. He now has $30 at risk – exactly the same as the Place bettor. However, the Place bettor just got paid on that six and he collected $35. At this point his six is “paid for” and he has no sevens risk on that number. The six has to roll a second time for the Come bettor to be paid. Let’s say that happens and he has another $5 Come bet on the layout. The Come bet “travels” to the six, although most dealer will simply tap the Come bet with the payoff on the six that’s already up and say “off and on for $35.” He’ll then pay the Place bettor his $35. Note that the Place bettor and the Come bettor both were paid $35 and both had the same amount of money wagered on the six - $5 with $25 odds for the Come bettor, and $30 Placed by his pal. But the Place bettor has now collected $70 total while the Come bettor has only collected $35. He also has the option, if he wishes, to take all of his action down and lock up that $70 win on this shooter. The Come bettor can take down his odds, but he’s still stuck with a flat bet that is a contract wager. And that is why most experienced craps players prefer Place betting to Come betting.
So why the heck would anyone Come bet? Well, mathematically it is the correct way to play the right side of the game, assuming you have the bankroll to survive the volatility of playing the odds and are a true long run player. And, as I mentioned in the opening paragraph of this article, the Come Bet is an integral part of the Place to Come strategy for players who want to put their bets on auto-pilot and not have to “think” about what their action is.
Place to Come is a good way to play if you have a fixed “max bet” in mind that’s part of your play. I know a lot of guys whose sevens tolerance drops substantially if they have more than $160 on the table. This player might start out with a Pass Line bet, then play $64 across including the point, or $54 or $52 across, depending on the point, excluding the point. He might have a “press and take” strategy in mind that sees him going “up a unit” on every hit – or playing a press and take strategy that involves a full press every other hit. Regardless, sometime during his hand he’ll get to the point that he’s uncomfortable putting more money on the table. At that point he has a couple of options. He can regress all of his action back town to $64, $54 or $52 across and start over – or he can drop $10 in the Come and let the dice decide where to go from there. Letting the dice decide is my preferred play.
Let’s say he has $10 on the Four - $25 on the Five - $30 each on the Six and Eight - $20 on the nine – and $25 (buy bet) on the Ten. He drops $10 in the Come and the next roll is the Five. Odds on the five need to be even. It’s a 3X-4X-5X odds game so the most he can take is $40 odds. Since the five is already pressed up to $25 – take it to $30, take down the $25 Place Bet and put another $10 in the Come. Next the Ten rolls. You collect $50 off the Buy bet. Since the Buy bet is coming down you don’t have to pay the juice again (assuming they collected it up front). You take $30 odds on the ten (max odds). Now you make a third $10 Come bet and follow the same process again and again. Once the Place Bets are worked off you’ll have a full layout of Come Bets with Odds. Then you just keep making Come bets and as long as you roll box numbers they’ll keep handing you chips. However, if you've made half-a-dozen or so Come bets and one or two of your numbers is still sitting there with a Place bet on it you might consider just taking it down. In Heavy parlance, it's not paying its rent so it gets evicted.
Another time when I use the Come bet is when I’m playing the Don’t Pass – Don’t Come and a player has just made his Pass and established the second point. My experience has been that shooters often seven out immediately after making their first pass. So I’ll switch from the Don’t Come to the Come for one or two rolls just to see if I can double up on a win.
Last of all, when I'm tracking a table and there's some sort of "disturbance in the force" like a shooter's girlfriend or significant other walking up and asking him for another $100 for the slots, or the dice flying off the table, or a stick change, or any of the other "superstitions" I deal with every time I'm at the table - I can turn my bets off and toss out a Come bet to hedge any contract bets I have up and on. It's a low vig option to hopping the sevens.
Do I like the Come Bet? Not particularly. But it does have it’s uses, so I do play it from time to time. In certain situations it’s highly recommended.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Once again, here's the recap on the Twelve Bets of Christmas so far:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
So what's up for the Eighth Bet of Christmas? How about I throw you all a curve ball. You've been standing around the dice table long enough, so let's go play Baccarat. More specifically - let's play the Banker bet at Baccarat.
Baccarat is the game of the rich and famous. Jackie Chan, Sean Connery and Michael Jordan are all well-known baccarat players. Jackie Chan even featured baccarat in some of his films – as did Sean Connery as James Bond. But the game is familiar to only a small percentage of the gambling public. For decades it was kept under wraps, played away from the casino floor in plush high-roller pits. The lowest minimum bet in the baccarat pit was usually $25, and many players openly scoffed at anything less than a $100 minimum table. But today average Joe can play a popular variant of Baccarat – Mini-Bac – in just about any casino in the United States, often with table limits as low $5.
Baccarat also comes closer than most other casino games to offering the customer an even break. The house edge is as low as 1.06 percent for a bet on the Banker hand and 1.24 percent for a bet on the Player hand. The house edge on the "tie" bet is so ridiculous I won't even go into it. Blackjack players who use basic strategy can do better odds-wise; as can craps players who take full advantage of the Free Odds bet. But baccarat is a game that requires virtually no skill to master. You don’t have to learn to count cards or control the dice. You simply need a systematic method of play combined with good money management and discipline skills to walk away a winner.
At the full-sized, 14-player baccarat table, one dealer — the “Callman” — stands up. He turns cards face up after they are dealt by the bettor holding the shoe. The Callman is responsible for calling out the point totals and announcing whether either hand gets another card according to the set hit/stand rules of the game. Two other dealers remain seated on either side of the Callman. They are responsible for paying off winning bets and collecting losing wagers. Mini-baccarat has just one dealer, who deals the cards and combines all the responsibilities of the three dealers at the larger table — but does it at a much faster pace. Because of this pace, a $5 or $10 Mini-Bac player may find himself wagering more per hour than a $25 bettor at the full-sized game – which is why the casinos prefer Mini-Bac.
Baccarat and Mini-Bac are not particularly complicated, but they does have certain rules that take some getting used to. For instance, the banker hand and the player hand:
Banker vs. Player
Regardless of how many people are playing, only two hands are dealt. One is designated the Banker hand, the other is the Player hand. Any customer may bet on either hand, with the exception that the customer holding the shoe in the full-scale game must either bet Banker or pass the shoe. Do not think of the Bank hand as belonging to the house or the Player hand belonging to the bettor.
The Play
In full-scale Baccarat, the bettor holding the shoe slides one card out and passes it face down to the stand-up dealer, who passes it to the customer with the largest Player bet. The next card, the first of the Banker hand, is placed next to the shoe. The bettor then deals another Player card, then the second Banker card. The dealer calls for the Player hand, and the customer with the largest player bet first looks at the cards, then gives them to the dealer. The dealer turns the cards face up and announces the point total. Then the dealer calls for the Banker hand, and the shoe holder looks at the cards and gives them to the dealer. If the Player total requires a draw, the dealer will say, “Card for the Player,” and the shoe holder will pass a card to the dealer, who will pass it to the Player-bettor, who looks at it and passes it back to the dealer, who turns it face up. Finally, if the Banker requires a card, the dealer will call, “Card for the Bank,” and repeat the process with the shoe holder.
The casino is more than willing to offer the time-consuming ceremony to its largest bettors. They will even let the players bend, crumple, or tear the cards at the end of a hand, since the cards are not re-used in most casinos. That is not the case in Mini-Baccarat.
In Mini-Bac, the dealer plays out both hands. There are no time consuming formalities and a hand is dealt and decided in less than half the time it takes to accomplish the same thing in a traditional Baccarat game.
The object of the game is to bet on the two- or three-card hand that totals closest to nine. Tens and face cards all are worth zero points; all other cards are worth their face value, with the ace worth one point. If a total is more than 10, the second digit is the value of the hand. For example, a 9 and a 7, which total 16, make up a six-point hand.
Initially, two cards are dealt for each hand. The point totals determine whether either hand gets a third card. The Player hand is completed first. A total of 8 or 9 is called a “natural,” and the Player hand gets no more cards. In fact, unless the Banker has a natural 9 or ties the natural 8, no further cards are drawn, and the naturals are automatic winners. Player also stands on totals of 6 or 7. On any other total, 0 through 5, Player draws a third card, unless Banker has a natural, in which case the Bank hand wins with no further draw.
Banker rules are a bit more complicated. The Banker also stands on 7, 8, or 9 and draws on 0, 1, or 2, but on other hands the Banker’s play is dependent on the value of the Player’s third card. Banker hits 3 unless the player’s third card is an 8; hits 4 unless the Player’s third card is 1, 8, 9, or 10; hits 5 only if the Player’s third card is 4, 5, 6, or 7; and hits 6 only if the Player’s third card is 6 or 7.
When the Player Hand first two cards total:
1-2-3-4-5-10 - Player Draws a card
6-7 - Player Stands
8-9 - Natural — Stands
Banker Hand First two cards total:
First two cards total 3 - Draws when player’s third card is 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-9-10 - Stands when player’s third card is: 8
First two cards total 4 - Draws when player’s third card is 2-3-4-5-6-7 - Stands when player’s third card is 1-8-9-10
First two cards total 5 - Draws when player’s third card is 4-5-6-7 - Stands when player’s third card is 1-2-3-8-9-10
First two cards total 6 - Draws when player’s third card is - 6-7 -Stands when player’s third card is 1-2-3-4-5-8-9-10
First two cards total 7 - Stands
First two cards total 8-0 - Natural — Stands
First two cards total - 0-1-2 - Always draws
There are a few exceptions. A natural, as noted above, stops play with no further draws. And if the player has one of its other two standing hands, 6 or 7, bank stands on 6 as well as 7, 8, and 9. Neither hand ever gets more than three cards. After the hands have been played out, the hand totaling closer to 9 wins. Winning bets are paid off at even money. Ties push — neither hand wins nor loses.
Bets on Ties
Bettors also may wager that the two hands will finish with an equal number of points. Winning bets on Ties pay off at 8-1. That sounds tempting, but this wager carries a hefty 14.3 percent house edge and should be avoided. So should any other side-bets you may find in “carnival game” versions of Mini-Bac.
Baccarat players are allowed to keep track of the results of each hand, and most casinos provide score sheets and pencils to do so. Players simply put an X in a column beneath “Banker,” “Player,” or “Tie.” Most gaming analysts contend that it is pointless to track decision results as Baccarat is a pure guessing game. The Banker hand wins slightly more often than the Player, but the house collects a 5% commission on winning Banker bets, resulting in the 1.17% house edge on the bet.
With that said, Baccarat, like craps, roulette, or any of the other "coin flip" type games is subject to producing streaks of Banker or Player that can be capitalized on with systematic play. There are both follow the trend and buck the trend strategies for the game - most more or less based on some sort of negative progression. The same ones we've talked about further up this thread - the Fibonacci and the Paroli - can both be effective. Of course, the key to Baccarat - as with any casino game - is not to let greed get the better of you. Set reasonable win goals and loss limits. When it's not fun - it's time to run. Remember - the correct time to color up is when you're ahead.
Recapping our progress to date on the Twelve Bets of Christmas:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
So what's up for the Eighth Bet of Christmas? How about I throw you all a curve ball. You've been standing around the dice table long enough, so let's go play Baccarat. More specifically - let's play the Banker bet at Baccarat.
Baccarat is the game of the rich and famous. Jackie Chan, Sean Connery and Michael Jordan are all well-known baccarat players. Jackie Chan even featured baccarat in some of his films – as did Sean Connery as James Bond. But the game is familiar to only a small percentage of the gambling public. For decades it was kept under wraps, played away from the casino floor in plush high-roller pits. The lowest minimum bet in the baccarat pit was usually $25, and many players openly scoffed at anything less than a $100 minimum table. But today average Joe can play a popular variant of Baccarat – Mini-Bac – in just about any casino in the United States, often with table limits as low $5.
Baccarat also comes closer than most other casino games to offering the customer an even break. The house edge is as low as 1.06 percent for a bet on the Banker hand and 1.24 percent for a bet on the Player hand. The house edge on the "tie" bet is so ridiculous I won't even go into it. Blackjack players who use basic strategy can do better odds-wise; as can craps players who take full advantage of the Free Odds bet. But baccarat is a game that requires virtually no skill to master. You don’t have to learn to count cards or control the dice. You simply need a systematic method of play combined with good money management and discipline skills to walk away a winner.
At the full-sized, 14-player baccarat table, one dealer — the “Callman” — stands up. He turns cards face up after they are dealt by the bettor holding the shoe. The Callman is responsible for calling out the point totals and announcing whether either hand gets another card according to the set hit/stand rules of the game. Two other dealers remain seated on either side of the Callman. They are responsible for paying off winning bets and collecting losing wagers. Mini-baccarat has just one dealer, who deals the cards and combines all the responsibilities of the three dealers at the larger table — but does it at a much faster pace. Because of this pace, a $5 or $10 Mini-Bac player may find himself wagering more per hour than a $25 bettor at the full-sized game – which is why the casinos prefer Mini-Bac.
Baccarat and Mini-Bac are not particularly complicated, but they does have certain rules that take some getting used to. For instance, the banker hand and the player hand:
Banker vs. Player
Regardless of how many people are playing, only two hands are dealt. One is designated the Banker hand, the other is the Player hand. Any customer may bet on either hand, with the exception that the customer holding the shoe in the full-scale game must either bet Banker or pass the shoe. Do not think of the Bank hand as belonging to the house or the Player hand belonging to the bettor.
The Play
In full-scale Baccarat, the bettor holding the shoe slides one card out and passes it face down to the stand-up dealer, who passes it to the customer with the largest Player bet. The next card, the first of the Banker hand, is placed next to the shoe. The bettor then deals another Player card, then the second Banker card. The dealer calls for the Player hand, and the customer with the largest player bet first looks at the cards, then gives them to the dealer. The dealer turns the cards face up and announces the point total. Then the dealer calls for the Banker hand, and the shoe holder looks at the cards and gives them to the dealer. If the Player total requires a draw, the dealer will say, “Card for the Player,” and the shoe holder will pass a card to the dealer, who will pass it to the Player-bettor, who looks at it and passes it back to the dealer, who turns it face up. Finally, if the Banker requires a card, the dealer will call, “Card for the Bank,” and repeat the process with the shoe holder.
The casino is more than willing to offer the time-consuming ceremony to its largest bettors. They will even let the players bend, crumple, or tear the cards at the end of a hand, since the cards are not re-used in most casinos. That is not the case in Mini-Baccarat.
In Mini-Bac, the dealer plays out both hands. There are no time consuming formalities and a hand is dealt and decided in less than half the time it takes to accomplish the same thing in a traditional Baccarat game.
The object of the game is to bet on the two- or three-card hand that totals closest to nine. Tens and face cards all are worth zero points; all other cards are worth their face value, with the ace worth one point. If a total is more than 10, the second digit is the value of the hand. For example, a 9 and a 7, which total 16, make up a six-point hand.
Initially, two cards are dealt for each hand. The point totals determine whether either hand gets a third card. The Player hand is completed first. A total of 8 or 9 is called a “natural,” and the Player hand gets no more cards. In fact, unless the Banker has a natural 9 or ties the natural 8, no further cards are drawn, and the naturals are automatic winners. Player also stands on totals of 6 or 7. On any other total, 0 through 5, Player draws a third card, unless Banker has a natural, in which case the Bank hand wins with no further draw.
Banker rules are a bit more complicated. The Banker also stands on 7, 8, or 9 and draws on 0, 1, or 2, but on other hands the Banker’s play is dependent on the value of the Player’s third card. Banker hits 3 unless the player’s third card is an 8; hits 4 unless the Player’s third card is 1, 8, 9, or 10; hits 5 only if the Player’s third card is 4, 5, 6, or 7; and hits 6 only if the Player’s third card is 6 or 7.
When the Player Hand first two cards total:
1-2-3-4-5-10 - Player Draws a card
6-7 - Player Stands
8-9 - Natural — Stands
Banker Hand First two cards total:
First two cards total 3 - Draws when player’s third card is 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-9-10 - Stands when player’s third card is: 8
First two cards total 4 - Draws when player’s third card is 2-3-4-5-6-7 - Stands when player’s third card is 1-8-9-10
First two cards total 5 - Draws when player’s third card is 4-5-6-7 - Stands when player’s third card is 1-2-3-8-9-10
First two cards total 6 - Draws when player’s third card is - 6-7 -Stands when player’s third card is 1-2-3-4-5-8-9-10
First two cards total 7 - Stands
First two cards total 8-0 - Natural — Stands
First two cards total - 0-1-2 - Always draws
There are a few exceptions. A natural, as noted above, stops play with no further draws. And if the player has one of its other two standing hands, 6 or 7, bank stands on 6 as well as 7, 8, and 9. Neither hand ever gets more than three cards. After the hands have been played out, the hand totaling closer to 9 wins. Winning bets are paid off at even money. Ties push — neither hand wins nor loses.
Bets on Ties
Bettors also may wager that the two hands will finish with an equal number of points. Winning bets on Ties pay off at 8-1. That sounds tempting, but this wager carries a hefty 14.3 percent house edge and should be avoided. So should any other side-bets you may find in “carnival game” versions of Mini-Bac.
Baccarat players are allowed to keep track of the results of each hand, and most casinos provide score sheets and pencils to do so. Players simply put an X in a column beneath “Banker,” “Player,” or “Tie.” Most gaming analysts contend that it is pointless to track decision results as Baccarat is a pure guessing game. The Banker hand wins slightly more often than the Player, but the house collects a 5% commission on winning Banker bets, resulting in the 1.17% house edge on the bet.
With that said, Baccarat, like craps, roulette, or any of the other "coin flip" type games is subject to producing streaks of Banker or Player that can be capitalized on with systematic play. There are both follow the trend and buck the trend strategies for the game - most more or less based on some sort of negative progression. The same ones we've talked about further up this thread - the Fibonacci and the Paroli - can both be effective. Of course, the key to Baccarat - as with any casino game - is not to let greed get the better of you. Set reasonable win goals and loss limits. When it's not fun - it's time to run. Remember - the correct time to color up is when you're ahead.
Recapping our progress to date on the Twelve Bets of Christmas:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Recapping our progress to date on the Twelve Bets of Christmas:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
Today we celebrate The Ninth Bet of Christmas - and this time we're taking a trip to the Roulette wheel. "What?!?" you say. Roulette? But roulette carries a ridiculous house edge - in excess of 5% on the American wheel. Mathematically it cannot be beaten over the long run. "True," I reply. And though I 'll get grief from some folks for proposing this - at the end of the day, for the short-run session player, mathematics and gambling have very little to do with each other. Math is a very exact science. Casino gambling is not. Oh, I know. Over the long run the casinos win will come very close to the statistically expected result. But it won't be exact - even for the long run. And over the short run just about anything can happen.
When playing roulette and looking tat the house edge you have to take in mind the number of decisions per hour. Roulette is a very slow paced game, so even though it carries a high vig, that vig is applied to a relatively small number of bets per hour. Especially when compared to games like Blackjack, which can be dealt very quickly, resulting in a large number of decisions per hour. A 5% vig at Roulette where you're making $100 per hour in bets will cost you $25. A 1.5% vig at a shoe game where the dealer hits five times as many decisions as the Roulette table kicks off that same $25 for the house. Personally, I'd rather hang out with the gals at the roulette wheel. And that's one of the reasons I like to hang out at the Roulette wheel. The other? Unlike the craps pit, at the roulette table there are chairs you can sit on. And at my age taking a load off your feet is always a good decision.
Another reason I like Roulette is that it's another of those "coin flip" type games that lends itself to systematic betting. You'll see streaks of red or black or odd or even or even a single number roll time after time after time. And those streaks are where you make your money.
Now, according to the math of the game no "system" can give us a positive expectation at the game. I agree with that position. So what sort of strategy should we use? Well, you have a couple of different ways to go. There are negative progressions and positive progressions - either of which can work quite nicely in the short run. Then there are hedge systems - also losing strategies but they smooth out some of the bumps in the roulette road by decreasing volatility. Then there's the biggie - finding a dealer with a signature OR a biased wheel. Either are extremely rare.
You could play the Fibonacci or the Paroli as outlined above on previous posts. But if you want a little more action and like betting streaks - particularly streaks of black - you can bet the outside numbers utilizing a strategy I refer to as Heavy's Maximum Ass-Time Grind. It's a slow grind system designed to maximize your table time while limiting your exposure. Here's how it works:
Heavy's Maximum Ass-Time Grind: This strategy is designed to give you a lot of playing time for a relatively low investment. You play only the outside, which means you can take advantage of any favorable rules such as Surrender or En Prison. Here’s the play.
Chart a wheel for a “Black” trend, then play 3 Units on Black and 2 Units on the Third (3-26) Column. The Black bet pays 1-1 and the Third Column pays 2-1. We choose the third column because there is an imbalance in red-to-black numbers in that column. There are 8 red numbers in that column. This wager give you action on 26 of 36 numbers for a total of five units. Let’s look at the payout and you’ll see the beauty of it.
Black wins – Columns lose – Win 3 Lose 2 – Net 1 Unit win
Black loses – Columns win – Win 4 Lose 3 – Net 1 Unit win
Black AND Columns win – Win 7 – Net 7 Unit win
Black and Columns Lose – Lose 5 Units
There are other options off this play using the Dozens Bet as opposed to the Columns Bet. I prefer the Columns Bet due to the imbalance of red-to-black numbers, which give you more opportunities to grind out a single unit win. This strategy will generate a win roughly 68% of the time it’s played.
I'll wrap this post up with a few HEAVISMS. Being a son of the South, I have a tendency to color my language with colloquialisms. Here are some of my favorite sayings that revolve around casino gambling:
1. Don’t show up for a gunfight with a cap pistol. You’re in a battle with the casino and your bankroll is your ammunition. If you don’t have enough to play without fear – don’t play.
2. Never test the depth of the water with both feet. When gambling, follow the personal trainer rules – start low and go slow.
3. Get in, get it done, and get gone. Hanging around the casino is a lot like hanging around with members of the opposite sex. Sure, it’s fun – but the more time you spend with them the more it’s going to cost you.
4. If it ain’t fun – it’s time to run. Fact is, winning is fun and losing is not. Whether YOU know it or not, your subconscious knows if you’re losing.
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
Today we celebrate The Ninth Bet of Christmas - and this time we're taking a trip to the Roulette wheel. "What?!?" you say. Roulette? But roulette carries a ridiculous house edge - in excess of 5% on the American wheel. Mathematically it cannot be beaten over the long run. "True," I reply. And though I 'll get grief from some folks for proposing this - at the end of the day, for the short-run session player, mathematics and gambling have very little to do with each other. Math is a very exact science. Casino gambling is not. Oh, I know. Over the long run the casinos win will come very close to the statistically expected result. But it won't be exact - even for the long run. And over the short run just about anything can happen.
When playing roulette and looking tat the house edge you have to take in mind the number of decisions per hour. Roulette is a very slow paced game, so even though it carries a high vig, that vig is applied to a relatively small number of bets per hour. Especially when compared to games like Blackjack, which can be dealt very quickly, resulting in a large number of decisions per hour. A 5% vig at Roulette where you're making $100 per hour in bets will cost you $25. A 1.5% vig at a shoe game where the dealer hits five times as many decisions as the Roulette table kicks off that same $25 for the house. Personally, I'd rather hang out with the gals at the roulette wheel. And that's one of the reasons I like to hang out at the Roulette wheel. The other? Unlike the craps pit, at the roulette table there are chairs you can sit on. And at my age taking a load off your feet is always a good decision.
Another reason I like Roulette is that it's another of those "coin flip" type games that lends itself to systematic betting. You'll see streaks of red or black or odd or even or even a single number roll time after time after time. And those streaks are where you make your money.
Now, according to the math of the game no "system" can give us a positive expectation at the game. I agree with that position. So what sort of strategy should we use? Well, you have a couple of different ways to go. There are negative progressions and positive progressions - either of which can work quite nicely in the short run. Then there are hedge systems - also losing strategies but they smooth out some of the bumps in the roulette road by decreasing volatility. Then there's the biggie - finding a dealer with a signature OR a biased wheel. Either are extremely rare.
You could play the Fibonacci or the Paroli as outlined above on previous posts. But if you want a little more action and like betting streaks - particularly streaks of black - you can bet the outside numbers utilizing a strategy I refer to as Heavy's Maximum Ass-Time Grind. It's a slow grind system designed to maximize your table time while limiting your exposure. Here's how it works:
Heavy's Maximum Ass-Time Grind: This strategy is designed to give you a lot of playing time for a relatively low investment. You play only the outside, which means you can take advantage of any favorable rules such as Surrender or En Prison. Here’s the play.
Chart a wheel for a “Black” trend, then play 3 Units on Black and 2 Units on the Third (3-26) Column. The Black bet pays 1-1 and the Third Column pays 2-1. We choose the third column because there is an imbalance in red-to-black numbers in that column. There are 8 red numbers in that column. This wager give you action on 26 of 36 numbers for a total of five units. Let’s look at the payout and you’ll see the beauty of it.
Black wins – Columns lose – Win 3 Lose 2 – Net 1 Unit win
Black loses – Columns win – Win 4 Lose 3 – Net 1 Unit win
Black AND Columns win – Win 7 – Net 7 Unit win
Black and Columns Lose – Lose 5 Units
There are other options off this play using the Dozens Bet as opposed to the Columns Bet. I prefer the Columns Bet due to the imbalance of red-to-black numbers, which give you more opportunities to grind out a single unit win. This strategy will generate a win roughly 68% of the time it’s played.
I'll wrap this post up with a few HEAVISMS. Being a son of the South, I have a tendency to color my language with colloquialisms. Here are some of my favorite sayings that revolve around casino gambling:
1. Don’t show up for a gunfight with a cap pistol. You’re in a battle with the casino and your bankroll is your ammunition. If you don’t have enough to play without fear – don’t play.
2. Never test the depth of the water with both feet. When gambling, follow the personal trainer rules – start low and go slow.
3. Get in, get it done, and get gone. Hanging around the casino is a lot like hanging around with members of the opposite sex. Sure, it’s fun – but the more time you spend with them the more it’s going to cost you.
4. If it ain’t fun – it’s time to run. Fact is, winning is fun and losing is not. Whether YOU know it or not, your subconscious knows if you’re losing.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
If the table is streaking red, can you also switch up the bets to 3 units on red and 2 units on the middle 12 column?
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Correct, old wise one. You can indeed. For some reason I got started betting black back in the day and I've just stuck with it. But if red is streaking then betting red is right.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Now you have one max ass time strategy for each cheek depending on which way the table is leaning.
-
London Shooter
- Posts: 2590
- Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:15 am
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Heavy, would you have a different strategy for European rules ( where for those that don't know you get 1/2 your bet back on the even money selections if 0 comes up) ? E.g combine two of the 6 even money picks such as red and 1-18 and see if you can get a streak goin on those?
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Good question - and one I considered addressing in the above article. The European wheel is so rare in the US, though, that I didn't bother. For those of you who are not up to snuff on the European game, here are a few fundamentals
The European version has 37 slots with a single 0; the American version has an extra slot, a 00 to make 38.
The house advantage is 2.7% For European vs 5.26% for the American game - so the European game is definitely better. With that said, there are some bets you should avoid. In particular, avoid all single number bets. I recommend this on the American wheel as well, by the way. The worst bet on the American Wheel is the "five number bet," sometimes referred to as the "basket bet." That's a wager on the 0 - 00 - 1 -2 - 3. The house edge on this bet is 7.9%. The "first four" bet on the European wheel consists of the 0 - 1 - 2 - 3. I don't have the odds on that bet off the top of my head but I suspect it's well above the 2.7% the other wagers on the wheel offers. Of course, if you can stumble onto a wheel with the en prison rule you can reduce the odds even farther. If you make an even money bet on a table with the en prison rule and the ball lands on zero, the croupier doesn't rake in your wager. Instead, your bet is 'imprisoned' or held hostage, and you are forced to keep it on the table until the next spin. If your bet wins, you can remove it from the table. This bet cuts the house edge on even money bets in half, down to just 1.35%.
So that gets us to the point of deciding which bets to place. Clearly you want even money bets because of the en prison rule. Seriously. This is a better bet than placing the six and eight at craps. The "even money" bets include betting on Even, Odd, Low, (numbers 1 through 18), High, (numbers 19 through 36), Red, or Black.
My preference would be to chart for a streak of black and bet black and the right (or top - depending on where your sitting) column. Another approach - somewhat counter to my thinking - would be to bet red and the right (top) row when red is streaking. You'd do this because you get double coverage on many of the red slots this way. However, I prefer to combine black with the top row so I'll get coverage over more numbers overall. Remember, I'm playing a grind strategy and this approach is more "grindish" IMHO.
The short answer to LS's question about how I'd play the European wheel is this. Same strategy - bigger bets. With a house edge one-third of what you'll find in the US game - I figure I could be three times more with the same amount of long run downside risk.
Whew. Long thread. Hope it all makes sense.
You know, many years ago I ran a dedicated roulette forum. It went away in the ProBoards meltdown and never returned.
The European version has 37 slots with a single 0; the American version has an extra slot, a 00 to make 38.
The house advantage is 2.7% For European vs 5.26% for the American game - so the European game is definitely better. With that said, there are some bets you should avoid. In particular, avoid all single number bets. I recommend this on the American wheel as well, by the way. The worst bet on the American Wheel is the "five number bet," sometimes referred to as the "basket bet." That's a wager on the 0 - 00 - 1 -2 - 3. The house edge on this bet is 7.9%. The "first four" bet on the European wheel consists of the 0 - 1 - 2 - 3. I don't have the odds on that bet off the top of my head but I suspect it's well above the 2.7% the other wagers on the wheel offers. Of course, if you can stumble onto a wheel with the en prison rule you can reduce the odds even farther. If you make an even money bet on a table with the en prison rule and the ball lands on zero, the croupier doesn't rake in your wager. Instead, your bet is 'imprisoned' or held hostage, and you are forced to keep it on the table until the next spin. If your bet wins, you can remove it from the table. This bet cuts the house edge on even money bets in half, down to just 1.35%.
So that gets us to the point of deciding which bets to place. Clearly you want even money bets because of the en prison rule. Seriously. This is a better bet than placing the six and eight at craps. The "even money" bets include betting on Even, Odd, Low, (numbers 1 through 18), High, (numbers 19 through 36), Red, or Black.
My preference would be to chart for a streak of black and bet black and the right (or top - depending on where your sitting) column. Another approach - somewhat counter to my thinking - would be to bet red and the right (top) row when red is streaking. You'd do this because you get double coverage on many of the red slots this way. However, I prefer to combine black with the top row so I'll get coverage over more numbers overall. Remember, I'm playing a grind strategy and this approach is more "grindish" IMHO.
The short answer to LS's question about how I'd play the European wheel is this. Same strategy - bigger bets. With a house edge one-third of what you'll find in the US game - I figure I could be three times more with the same amount of long run downside risk.
Whew. Long thread. Hope it all makes sense.
You know, many years ago I ran a dedicated roulette forum. It went away in the ProBoards meltdown and never returned.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
heavy, i have two questions on the 6th day bets, the dont pass, specifically on your fibonacci progression. in your example you won the 75 bet. you were down 25,25, 50 which is down 100, so winning the 75 you are now down only 25,why not regress to the 50 level instead of staying at the 75. if you won the 50 you would still win 25 PLUS you can start all over at a SAFER level.
just curious.
my second questions pertains to your hedging the dont pass bet by laying one number. what are your thoughts of laying all the numbers for that one roll since your exposure would still be losing only one of the lays? again curious to see if i may be missing some disadvantage to that.
thank you.
larry
just curious.
my second questions pertains to your hedging the dont pass bet by laying one number. what are your thoughts of laying all the numbers for that one roll since your exposure would still be losing only one of the lays? again curious to see if i may be missing some disadvantage to that.
thank you.
larry
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Good questions, Larry. What I presented was the classic Fibo play, which calls for the bettor to remain at the same level for two consecutive bets on a win - then regress to a single unit and start over. You could certainly regress to $50 if you wanted to. That's just the way I learned the play MANY years ago. Being a creature of habit - that's still the way I play it. Of course, if you don't win two in a row it can get ugly pretty fast. That's why I prefer the Fibonacci for dark side play as opposed to right side play. You're going to win that bet (once established) two out of three times.
On your second question - I considered tossing out that option of laying all of the numbers to hedge the Don't Pass. But since you guarantee yourself a loss on that play - even if it's only a $25 loss on the six or eight - you're starting out in the bucket. With the single number lay there's less of a chance of starting out with a loss. With that said, I know several shooters who are very adept at tossing sevens on the Come Out, and if I were betting on one of them on them I might consider the option. But essentially I'm "gambling" that I'll win that bet often enough to off-set the total of losses. In other words, I'm going to have to see a couple of sevens every six Come Out rolls to make the strategy pay. If I'm at the table with a guy who can toss three sevens in a row I'm not sure that I wouldn't be better off betting $3 on the sevens hopping, parlay it to $15, then parlay it again $75, then take a $375 win on the third one. But if I told you about that I'd be giving away another Day's bet. LOL.
On your second question - I considered tossing out that option of laying all of the numbers to hedge the Don't Pass. But since you guarantee yourself a loss on that play - even if it's only a $25 loss on the six or eight - you're starting out in the bucket. With the single number lay there's less of a chance of starting out with a loss. With that said, I know several shooters who are very adept at tossing sevens on the Come Out, and if I were betting on one of them on them I might consider the option. But essentially I'm "gambling" that I'll win that bet often enough to off-set the total of losses. In other words, I'm going to have to see a couple of sevens every six Come Out rolls to make the strategy pay. If I'm at the table with a guy who can toss three sevens in a row I'm not sure that I wouldn't be better off betting $3 on the sevens hopping, parlay it to $15, then parlay it again $75, then take a $375 win on the third one. But if I told you about that I'd be giving away another Day's bet. LOL.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Recapping our progress to date on the Twelve Bets of Christmas:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
Which gets us to the Tenth Bet of Christmas - which required you to Bank the game at Pai Gow Poker.
Say what?
Okay, a little history on Pai Gow first. The traditional Asian version of Pai Gow is played with tiles about the shape and size of dominoes. It is among the oldest of casino games, although as a young craps player I rarely ran across it. I grew up around "domino" games played with poker tiles (tiles featuring card faces instead of spots) in Southern pool halls. I didn't discover Pai Gow until the late 80's, after Pai Gow Poker was introduced into the casinos.
Pai Gow Poker is played with a standard deck of 52 cards. The game is very slow paced, which makes the vig - a 5% commission collected on all winning bets - a little more tolerable. If you serve as the game's Banker (more on that later) you can cut that house edge substantially. If you happen to play in Washington State you may run across games that do not charge the 5% commission on wins. They collect their "vig" solely off side bets in the game. If you run across THAT game jump on it. The house edge is only about 1.3% - which is better than Placing the Six and Eight at craps. In addition to being a slow paced game, Pai Gow Poker is also attractive because it features a lot of "ties."
Unlike most casino games, in Pai Gow Poker the player may bet against the dealer and other players. This is known as "banking" the game. Each player gets the opportunity to act as banker. In most jurisdictions that option rotates around the table, but at some casinos it bounces back and forth between the dealer and each player in turn, with the dealer banking every other hand. Some players will decline to bank the game - out of ignorance or because of limited bankroll. In those cases the option will revert to the next player, or dealer. The player acting as the Banker has a 1.3% advantage over the other players. For that reason, betting the table maximum when acting as the bank, and the table minimum when you’re in a player position, would be the best mathematical way to maximize your odds. It’s not very practical to have that much disparity in your bets, so you don’t have to bet the table maximum, any amount that you’re comfortable with will be fine. But if you're ever going to push out a large "get back" bet, do it when you are the Banker.
Here's how the game is played.
First, the players make their bets - typically based on the table minimum. Now, because of the slow pace and the large number of ties, I prefer to play Pai Gow Poker at the $25 level. Why? Because you get rated MUCH better and losing 5% an hour based on the characteristics of the game is not really going to amount to that much.
The dealer shuffles the cards and deals out seven stacks containing seven cards. Doesn't matter how many players there are - it's always seven hands dealt. Then the Banker shakes a cup containing three dice to determine who gets the first hand.
Each player looks at his seven cards and sets them into a two-card hand and a five-card hand. Now this is the interesting part. If you're not sure how to set your cards (there are rules) the dealer will assist you. Lay your cards out in the spots marked on the table. The two-card hand is placed in front and the five-card hand is placed behind it. If both of your hands beat the Banker’s two hands you win. If one of your hands beats the Bankers and one loses it is a push and there are no winners. Starting to see why it's a slow paced game? If either of your hands has the exact same value as the Banker’s hand it is also tie, which is called a copy. But in this case the Banker wins. If the Banker’s two hands beats both of your hands you lose.
Now back to the rules I mentioned about setting your hands. Your five-card hand must be a higher value than your two-card hand. If you make a mistake and the two-card hand is higher it is a “foul” and you lose automatically. Hence the rule that allows you to ask the dealer to set your hand according to rules which are called the “House Way.”
Of course, your object is four-fold when playing Pai Gow Poker. First, it's another cheap way to "rent" a chair and sit down after playing a long craps session. Second, it's a slow paced game that allows you to build up comp credits without an excessive exposure on a bet-per-hour basis. Third, this is also a game where a player can catch a streak, and Fourth, once again progressive betting can save the day.
Here's your basic Pai Gow Strategy:
Back = 5 card hand
Front = 2 card hand
NO PAIR: Use the highest card in the back and second and third highest in front
ONE PAIR: Place pair in back, highest other two cards in front.
TWO PAIR:
Big Pair is Jack thru Ace: Place small pair in front.
Big Pair is 7’s thru 10’s: Place both pairs in back if you can put Ace in front.
Big Pair is 2’s thru 6’s: Place both pairs in back if you can put King in front; otherwise split.
THREE PAIR: Place big pair in front.
THREE OF A KIND:
Aces: Place an Ace and next highest card in front.
Kings and Below: Place three of a kind in back; two highest cards in front.
TWO SETS (3 0f a kind): Place pair from higher set in front.
STRAIGHT; FLUSH; STRAIGHT FLUSH:
With No Pair - Place two highest cards in front that leave a complete hand in back.
With One Pair - Place two highest cards possible (pair or no pair) in front that leave a complete hand in back.
With Two Pair - Use two pair strategy.
With Three of a Kind - Place complete hand in back, pair in front.
FULL HOUSE: Put pair in front and three of a kind in back.
FOUR OF A KIND:
Jacks thru Aces - Always split and put one pair in front and one in back.
7’s thru 10’s - Place four of a kind in back if you can put Ace or King in front; otherwise split.
6’s or Below - Never split as long as you can put a card higher than the 4 of a kind in front.
With a Pair - Play four of a kind in back; pair in front.
With Three of a Kind - Put highest pair in front; full house in back.
FIVE ACES - Place pair of Aces in front.
Because of it's pace and the number of ties, Pai Gow has the lowest volatility of any game in the casino. You can typically play a long time on a relatively small bankroll - especially when you compare it to craps. But since it's a low volatility game - you can pretty much forget about picking up any huge wins along the way. Still, you're sitting down, playing at a comfortable pace, earning comps and perhaps enjoying your favorite beverage and some good company along the way. For many of us that is a win unto itself.
Recappng the first Ten Bets of Christmas:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
Which gets us to the Tenth Bet of Christmas - which required you to Bank the game at Pai Gow Poker.
Say what?
Okay, a little history on Pai Gow first. The traditional Asian version of Pai Gow is played with tiles about the shape and size of dominoes. It is among the oldest of casino games, although as a young craps player I rarely ran across it. I grew up around "domino" games played with poker tiles (tiles featuring card faces instead of spots) in Southern pool halls. I didn't discover Pai Gow until the late 80's, after Pai Gow Poker was introduced into the casinos.
Pai Gow Poker is played with a standard deck of 52 cards. The game is very slow paced, which makes the vig - a 5% commission collected on all winning bets - a little more tolerable. If you serve as the game's Banker (more on that later) you can cut that house edge substantially. If you happen to play in Washington State you may run across games that do not charge the 5% commission on wins. They collect their "vig" solely off side bets in the game. If you run across THAT game jump on it. The house edge is only about 1.3% - which is better than Placing the Six and Eight at craps. In addition to being a slow paced game, Pai Gow Poker is also attractive because it features a lot of "ties."
Unlike most casino games, in Pai Gow Poker the player may bet against the dealer and other players. This is known as "banking" the game. Each player gets the opportunity to act as banker. In most jurisdictions that option rotates around the table, but at some casinos it bounces back and forth between the dealer and each player in turn, with the dealer banking every other hand. Some players will decline to bank the game - out of ignorance or because of limited bankroll. In those cases the option will revert to the next player, or dealer. The player acting as the Banker has a 1.3% advantage over the other players. For that reason, betting the table maximum when acting as the bank, and the table minimum when you’re in a player position, would be the best mathematical way to maximize your odds. It’s not very practical to have that much disparity in your bets, so you don’t have to bet the table maximum, any amount that you’re comfortable with will be fine. But if you're ever going to push out a large "get back" bet, do it when you are the Banker.
Here's how the game is played.
First, the players make their bets - typically based on the table minimum. Now, because of the slow pace and the large number of ties, I prefer to play Pai Gow Poker at the $25 level. Why? Because you get rated MUCH better and losing 5% an hour based on the characteristics of the game is not really going to amount to that much.
The dealer shuffles the cards and deals out seven stacks containing seven cards. Doesn't matter how many players there are - it's always seven hands dealt. Then the Banker shakes a cup containing three dice to determine who gets the first hand.
Each player looks at his seven cards and sets them into a two-card hand and a five-card hand. Now this is the interesting part. If you're not sure how to set your cards (there are rules) the dealer will assist you. Lay your cards out in the spots marked on the table. The two-card hand is placed in front and the five-card hand is placed behind it. If both of your hands beat the Banker’s two hands you win. If one of your hands beats the Bankers and one loses it is a push and there are no winners. Starting to see why it's a slow paced game? If either of your hands has the exact same value as the Banker’s hand it is also tie, which is called a copy. But in this case the Banker wins. If the Banker’s two hands beats both of your hands you lose.
Now back to the rules I mentioned about setting your hands. Your five-card hand must be a higher value than your two-card hand. If you make a mistake and the two-card hand is higher it is a “foul” and you lose automatically. Hence the rule that allows you to ask the dealer to set your hand according to rules which are called the “House Way.”
Of course, your object is four-fold when playing Pai Gow Poker. First, it's another cheap way to "rent" a chair and sit down after playing a long craps session. Second, it's a slow paced game that allows you to build up comp credits without an excessive exposure on a bet-per-hour basis. Third, this is also a game where a player can catch a streak, and Fourth, once again progressive betting can save the day.
Here's your basic Pai Gow Strategy:
Back = 5 card hand
Front = 2 card hand
NO PAIR: Use the highest card in the back and second and third highest in front
ONE PAIR: Place pair in back, highest other two cards in front.
TWO PAIR:
Big Pair is Jack thru Ace: Place small pair in front.
Big Pair is 7’s thru 10’s: Place both pairs in back if you can put Ace in front.
Big Pair is 2’s thru 6’s: Place both pairs in back if you can put King in front; otherwise split.
THREE PAIR: Place big pair in front.
THREE OF A KIND:
Aces: Place an Ace and next highest card in front.
Kings and Below: Place three of a kind in back; two highest cards in front.
TWO SETS (3 0f a kind): Place pair from higher set in front.
STRAIGHT; FLUSH; STRAIGHT FLUSH:
With No Pair - Place two highest cards in front that leave a complete hand in back.
With One Pair - Place two highest cards possible (pair or no pair) in front that leave a complete hand in back.
With Two Pair - Use two pair strategy.
With Three of a Kind - Place complete hand in back, pair in front.
FULL HOUSE: Put pair in front and three of a kind in back.
FOUR OF A KIND:
Jacks thru Aces - Always split and put one pair in front and one in back.
7’s thru 10’s - Place four of a kind in back if you can put Ace or King in front; otherwise split.
6’s or Below - Never split as long as you can put a card higher than the 4 of a kind in front.
With a Pair - Play four of a kind in back; pair in front.
With Three of a Kind - Put highest pair in front; full house in back.
FIVE ACES - Place pair of Aces in front.
Because of it's pace and the number of ties, Pai Gow has the lowest volatility of any game in the casino. You can typically play a long time on a relatively small bankroll - especially when you compare it to craps. But since it's a low volatility game - you can pretty much forget about picking up any huge wins along the way. Still, you're sitting down, playing at a comfortable pace, earning comps and perhaps enjoying your favorite beverage and some good company along the way. For many of us that is a win unto itself.
Recappng the first Ten Bets of Christmas:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Thanks for the reply heavy, and when you're right you are right!
Larry
Larry
-
London Shooter
- Posts: 2590
- Joined: Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:15 am
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Little footnote to the roulette section:
"The "first four" bet on the European wheel consists of the 0 - 1 - 2 - 3. I don't have the odds on that bet off the top of my head but I suspect it's well above the 2.7% the other wagers on the wheel offers. "
Placing this bet on the European wheel pays 8 to 1 which is the same as you would get for any four number "corner" bet on the layout. So the house edge remains at 2.7% whereas the 00-0-1-2-3, or "top line" bet on the American wheel is the worst bet on the layout paying 6 to 1 and giving the house edge of 7.9% that Heavy noted above.
"The "first four" bet on the European wheel consists of the 0 - 1 - 2 - 3. I don't have the odds on that bet off the top of my head but I suspect it's well above the 2.7% the other wagers on the wheel offers. "
Placing this bet on the European wheel pays 8 to 1 which is the same as you would get for any four number "corner" bet on the layout. So the house edge remains at 2.7% whereas the 00-0-1-2-3, or "top line" bet on the American wheel is the worst bet on the layout paying 6 to 1 and giving the house edge of 7.9% that Heavy noted above.
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Thanks for that info, LS. I wasn't sure on the first four numbers and didn't want to mislead anyone on the odds. Some of us refer to that top line bet on the American wheel as the green monster.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Recappng the first Ten Bets of Christmas:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
It's Christmas Eve and time for the Eleventh Bet of Christmas - Low Limit Hold 'em Poker.
The fact is, most experts list poker as the number one game you should learn to play if you want to win at the casino. Why? Because unlike other games (of chance) offered by the casinos, poker is a game of skill. You don't have to be better than the house. You just have to be better than the other players at the table. Of course, that in itself is a challenge. There are a lot of things you have to remember playing poker - including the fact that other players in local markets have a tendency to gang up on new people at their game, working as partners to beat you. Nevertheless, poker is a great game once you master the rules.
Vegas has long been a Mecca for poker players. It has the best poker rooms in the country and is home to the World Series of Poker. Some of the best (and best bankrolled) players in the country can be spotted at the following poker rooms.
1. Topping the list is Bobby's Room at Bellagio. It's where the best and richest players meet. Unless you have a $100,000 bankroll you probably won't see the inside of this place. After all, if you were buying in for $100,000 you wouldn't want a bunch of looky-loos hanging around watching the game. You'd want to focus on the task at hand. Bobby's Room is where these guys do this.
2. Aria's poker rooms shot to the top of the "best of" lists of poker rooms shortly after the casino opened. It's poker room has dozens of lower-limit tables, which allows beginners to be playing just a few feet away from the game’s biggest stars. Top players have complained about privacy, but at present the room is open for one and all. Of course, management could change that at any time.
3. Third on the list is Wynn's poker room - if for no other reason than it's ease of access from the parking lot. This is definitely one of the best places for those who play recreational poker. Their poker room offers limits ranging from $1-$2 to $2,000-$4,000, with a variety of options for both the minnows and the whales.
4. The Venetion. They offer not only one of the best poker rooms in Vegas - they also have a competitive attitude. For example, each year when Caesars is running their World Series of Poker tournament at Rio - the Venetian's management team is running the Deep Stack Extravaganza, an event that pulls many players away from the WSOP.
5. Rio. Yeah, this is where Caesars holds the World Series of Poker. Not the best place to play on a day to day basis - they only have fourteen tables during non-WSOP times. From May through July, through, all eyes are on the Rio Poker Room as the best players in the world descend on it for their shot at becoming a poker super star.
Before heading out to the poker rooms you need to at first master some sort of basic strategy. Your first decision will be which game to pick. There are dozens of variants of poker, with Texas Hold 'em getting the most attention. Hold 'em is also the most common game out there. You'll almost always be able to get a seat at one. But beware the "no limit" game. You don't want to be forced to bet your entire stack every time you turn around. So pick a low limit game to begin with.
There are also more "how to" books and DVD's available to help you learn the game than with any other variant. And with only two starting cards it's the easiest game to learn starting hand requirements, which is where all poker learning starts. Take a look at Lee Jones' Low Limit Hold 'em. You can pick it up used on Amazon for a few bucks. Ed Miller and David Sklansky have another book on Low Limit Hold 'em that will help you get started. Same deal on Amazon - pick it up used for a few bucks. And although it's not the best rated book around, if you have problems with money management and discipline then I'll recommend my pal John Patrick's Casino Poker. Look, John plays the game almost every day. I've attended one of his poker seminars and he knows his stuff. And you can pick up a used copy of this book for a penny plus shipping from Amazon.
You can also learn a lot by playing on-line before heading to the brick and mortar casinos. Pokerstars.net is one place you can play for free. Or you Facebook folks can play Texas Hold 'em on Zygnia. You'll have to endure a few pop up ads along the way, but you'll also learn how to play head to head with other players without putting your hard earned money on the table.
From there you might graduate to home games. You may have a buddy who runs one, or you may want to start up a group yourself. But remember, there's more cheating taking place in home games than you'll ever see in the casino.
On your first visit to a casino card room - prepare to get your head torn off. These places do not favor the beginner. The sharks that hang out at these places are always on the watch for bait fish. What's the old saying? If you're in the poker room and don't know who the sucker of the day is - it's you.
The first step in developing as a player is learning what hands to start with. This was one of the key points John Patrick told me years ago. Compare your two cards to those of the other players. If yours is not a strong hand - just fold and wait for the next one. Cutting out those bad hands will go along way toward turning you into a winner. Patience, my friend. A good hand will come.
Learn your math. Some players say that your ability to pick up on tells and read other people is what wins the game for you. These guys are full of bullshit. What wins at poker is knowing your numbers - not your people. Okay, that may not be entirely true. You have to be able to read people as well. But the best tell detector in the world can't win if he doesn't know what to do with the information. You absolutely know the math of the game if you want to know when to hold 'em - and know when to fold 'em.
Poker is like Craps. If it ain't fun - it's time to run. Poker is ultimately a grind game. Playing a grind system at craps can bet boring quickly. Poker is no different. You have to take it seriously to become a winning player. But you also need to have a little fun along the way. Engage with your opponents. See if you can get them to break their poker faces and laugh. As Mike Caro said, "happy tables are profitable tables." If you're happy, it's more likely the rest of the table will be happy and the chips will be flowing. If you're good they'll be flowing in your direction.
Soooooo, the Eleventh Bet of Christmas - is the ante at low limit Texas Hold 'em Poker. Recapping the entire list:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
11. Low Limit Texas Hold 'em.
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
It's Christmas Eve and time for the Eleventh Bet of Christmas - Low Limit Hold 'em Poker.
The fact is, most experts list poker as the number one game you should learn to play if you want to win at the casino. Why? Because unlike other games (of chance) offered by the casinos, poker is a game of skill. You don't have to be better than the house. You just have to be better than the other players at the table. Of course, that in itself is a challenge. There are a lot of things you have to remember playing poker - including the fact that other players in local markets have a tendency to gang up on new people at their game, working as partners to beat you. Nevertheless, poker is a great game once you master the rules.
Vegas has long been a Mecca for poker players. It has the best poker rooms in the country and is home to the World Series of Poker. Some of the best (and best bankrolled) players in the country can be spotted at the following poker rooms.
1. Topping the list is Bobby's Room at Bellagio. It's where the best and richest players meet. Unless you have a $100,000 bankroll you probably won't see the inside of this place. After all, if you were buying in for $100,000 you wouldn't want a bunch of looky-loos hanging around watching the game. You'd want to focus on the task at hand. Bobby's Room is where these guys do this.
2. Aria's poker rooms shot to the top of the "best of" lists of poker rooms shortly after the casino opened. It's poker room has dozens of lower-limit tables, which allows beginners to be playing just a few feet away from the game’s biggest stars. Top players have complained about privacy, but at present the room is open for one and all. Of course, management could change that at any time.
3. Third on the list is Wynn's poker room - if for no other reason than it's ease of access from the parking lot. This is definitely one of the best places for those who play recreational poker. Their poker room offers limits ranging from $1-$2 to $2,000-$4,000, with a variety of options for both the minnows and the whales.
4. The Venetion. They offer not only one of the best poker rooms in Vegas - they also have a competitive attitude. For example, each year when Caesars is running their World Series of Poker tournament at Rio - the Venetian's management team is running the Deep Stack Extravaganza, an event that pulls many players away from the WSOP.
5. Rio. Yeah, this is where Caesars holds the World Series of Poker. Not the best place to play on a day to day basis - they only have fourteen tables during non-WSOP times. From May through July, through, all eyes are on the Rio Poker Room as the best players in the world descend on it for their shot at becoming a poker super star.
Before heading out to the poker rooms you need to at first master some sort of basic strategy. Your first decision will be which game to pick. There are dozens of variants of poker, with Texas Hold 'em getting the most attention. Hold 'em is also the most common game out there. You'll almost always be able to get a seat at one. But beware the "no limit" game. You don't want to be forced to bet your entire stack every time you turn around. So pick a low limit game to begin with.
There are also more "how to" books and DVD's available to help you learn the game than with any other variant. And with only two starting cards it's the easiest game to learn starting hand requirements, which is where all poker learning starts. Take a look at Lee Jones' Low Limit Hold 'em. You can pick it up used on Amazon for a few bucks. Ed Miller and David Sklansky have another book on Low Limit Hold 'em that will help you get started. Same deal on Amazon - pick it up used for a few bucks. And although it's not the best rated book around, if you have problems with money management and discipline then I'll recommend my pal John Patrick's Casino Poker. Look, John plays the game almost every day. I've attended one of his poker seminars and he knows his stuff. And you can pick up a used copy of this book for a penny plus shipping from Amazon.
You can also learn a lot by playing on-line before heading to the brick and mortar casinos. Pokerstars.net is one place you can play for free. Or you Facebook folks can play Texas Hold 'em on Zygnia. You'll have to endure a few pop up ads along the way, but you'll also learn how to play head to head with other players without putting your hard earned money on the table.
From there you might graduate to home games. You may have a buddy who runs one, or you may want to start up a group yourself. But remember, there's more cheating taking place in home games than you'll ever see in the casino.
On your first visit to a casino card room - prepare to get your head torn off. These places do not favor the beginner. The sharks that hang out at these places are always on the watch for bait fish. What's the old saying? If you're in the poker room and don't know who the sucker of the day is - it's you.
The first step in developing as a player is learning what hands to start with. This was one of the key points John Patrick told me years ago. Compare your two cards to those of the other players. If yours is not a strong hand - just fold and wait for the next one. Cutting out those bad hands will go along way toward turning you into a winner. Patience, my friend. A good hand will come.
Learn your math. Some players say that your ability to pick up on tells and read other people is what wins the game for you. These guys are full of bullshit. What wins at poker is knowing your numbers - not your people. Okay, that may not be entirely true. You have to be able to read people as well. But the best tell detector in the world can't win if he doesn't know what to do with the information. You absolutely know the math of the game if you want to know when to hold 'em - and know when to fold 'em.
Poker is like Craps. If it ain't fun - it's time to run. Poker is ultimately a grind game. Playing a grind system at craps can bet boring quickly. Poker is no different. You have to take it seriously to become a winning player. But you also need to have a little fun along the way. Engage with your opponents. See if you can get them to break their poker faces and laugh. As Mike Caro said, "happy tables are profitable tables." If you're happy, it's more likely the rest of the table will be happy and the chips will be flowing. If you're good they'll be flowing in your direction.
Soooooo, the Eleventh Bet of Christmas - is the ante at low limit Texas Hold 'em Poker. Recapping the entire list:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
11. Low Limit Texas Hold 'em.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Merry Christmas, everyone! It's time to cap our Twelve Bets of Christmas thread, and for this one we're going back to the old craps table. But first, let's recap the bets for the first eleven days:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
11. Low Limit Texas Hold 'em.
And now, the Twelfth Bet of Christmas - Hop the Sevens.
Yes, I know. Vig-wise it's one of the worst bets on the table. But there are so many times when this bet is appropriate that it's difficult to ignore. Add to that the fact that the sevens are the dominant numbers in the game and that a two hit parlay can kick off a significant win and it's hard to ignore.
So when do I like to use a hop sevens vet? Well, the Come Out roll is a natural - especially if you're playing the Don'ts. I used to know a guy in Vegas whose primary play was $25 on the Don't Pass with $3 sevens hop as a hedge. If the sevens hit he'd parlay it to $15 hopping. If that hit he parlayed again to $75 hopping. The third consecutive seven paid $375 and it was "color coming in" time. He told me once that he hit that bet four to five times a week - his win goal was $300 a day - and for the most part he paid his bills on that bet.
I'll also hop the sevens when playing the Don'ts as part of what I'd dub "an asshole" play. I'm the guy at the table who hops the sevens during a hand and the shooter hears the word "seven" and immediately tosses one. Not sure why that works, but it seems like it does.
Another time to use the bet - whether you're playing the right side or the wrong side - is when you have an energy draining event at the table. You know what I'm talking about; dice flying off the table, cocktail server interrupting the shooter, stick change, etc. These are all what we sometimes refer to as "indicators." Might as well use them to your advantage.
So there you have it. The Twelfth Bet of Christmas - Hop the Sevens. Here's our full list for the season:
Recapping the entire list:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
11. Low Limit Texas Hold 'em.
12. Hop the Sevens
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
11. Low Limit Texas Hold 'em.
And now, the Twelfth Bet of Christmas - Hop the Sevens.
Yes, I know. Vig-wise it's one of the worst bets on the table. But there are so many times when this bet is appropriate that it's difficult to ignore. Add to that the fact that the sevens are the dominant numbers in the game and that a two hit parlay can kick off a significant win and it's hard to ignore.
So when do I like to use a hop sevens vet? Well, the Come Out roll is a natural - especially if you're playing the Don'ts. I used to know a guy in Vegas whose primary play was $25 on the Don't Pass with $3 sevens hop as a hedge. If the sevens hit he'd parlay it to $15 hopping. If that hit he parlayed again to $75 hopping. The third consecutive seven paid $375 and it was "color coming in" time. He told me once that he hit that bet four to five times a week - his win goal was $300 a day - and for the most part he paid his bills on that bet.
I'll also hop the sevens when playing the Don'ts as part of what I'd dub "an asshole" play. I'm the guy at the table who hops the sevens during a hand and the shooter hears the word "seven" and immediately tosses one. Not sure why that works, but it seems like it does.
Another time to use the bet - whether you're playing the right side or the wrong side - is when you have an energy draining event at the table. You know what I'm talking about; dice flying off the table, cocktail server interrupting the shooter, stick change, etc. These are all what we sometimes refer to as "indicators." Might as well use them to your advantage.
So there you have it. The Twelfth Bet of Christmas - Hop the Sevens. Here's our full list for the season:
Recapping the entire list:
1. Don't Come
2. Pass Line
3. Buy the Four and Ten
4. Place the Six and Eight
5. The Free Odds
6. The Don't Pass
7. The Come Bet
8. The Banker Bet at Baccarat
9. Heavy's Maximum Ass Time Grind at Roulette - European Wheel with En Prison Rule if available
10. Pai Gow Poker - Minimum Bets as a Player - Maximum Bets as Banker - Be the Banker as Often as Possible
11. Low Limit Texas Hold 'em.
12. Hop the Sevens
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
-
crapsjourney
- Posts: 393
- Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2015 3:33 am
- Location: Brisbane, Australia
- Contact:
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Great thread got a lot out of it. Thanks Heavy and the other contributors. I've picked up several tips that I can't wait to try out next week at the casino.
-- Aaron
Craps Journey podcast for my adventures in craps
Craps Journey podcast for my adventures in craps
Re: The Twelve Bets of Christmas
Awesome thread Heavy! I used most of these last night at the casino and it was a very profitable trip won $500. It was also the 1st time I had ever used pen and notepad to track each roll. I did a little variation of the 4&10 strategy and made a killing.
You gotta know when 2 press em, know when 2 regress em.