Don't Pass Strategy

[Charlie's Dad]

I am new so if you have discussed this before I apologize. It consists of a come out don't pass bet of $20 a $6 hop 7s bet to get you by a 7 on the initial roll only downside is 11. Once point is established 2x odds on 6&8 3x odds on 5&9 and 4x odds on 4&10. Wait for result. Would this seem to be a workable play or am I missing something or should I change something? Thank you in advance for your help.

[$5Bill]

When I play the Don't Pass and I am tossing 7's on the come-out, I will lay $31 No 5. That way if I roll another 7, I will win $20 minus $1 for the vig. Then I parley that $20 and make it $45, $75, $120 until I establish a point. Once I set my Don't number I take down my Lay bet and put it in my rack. And yes I have knocked myself off at times. But there are more 7's then 5's.

$5Bill

[London Shooter]

Charlie's Dad you'll lose less in the long run if you forget about hopping the 7s. If you are so worried about a 7 on the come out with a DP then just wait until the point is established and then lay that number.

[London Shooter]

Or do what Bill does and lay a number on the comeout for 7 protection. A lot of people do the 4 or 10.

[SHOOTITALL]

CD: Welcome aboard. There have been no new questions concerning strategy here in a long time since Heavy started this board ~12 or so years ago. Ask away. You will get the the best input we have. On this question, its a definite loser to hop the seven in a random game. As you mentioned, you not only have to account for the 6 sevens but the two elevens also. However, our long time friend Golfer is addicted to hopping the sevens so it is not unheard of. The real problem is overcoming the $6 initial loss in addition to recovering a knockoff loss.
Let's suppose the six is the point, it bullfrogs right back. The loss would be $66 bucks (I think). That is a hefty hill to recoupe. Since you prefer the dark side as do a lot of us please read the Wrong Way thread especially the "Critique My Simple Don't Strategy". There is a world of information there and in the thread. sia

[Dylanfreake]

Using the Hopping Sevens which has a house edge of almost 14%, for hedging a Dont Pass wager that has a house edge of 1.4% is not a very good play. You are losing 84 cents on the hoppin` sevens to try and keep from losing 28 cents on the Dont Pass wager.

[Moe Bettor]

I like $5Bill's strategy. In my case it is $5 PL, lay the 9 for $30+ $1 vig rolling for 7. If I don't hit the seven and catch a 6 or 8 I will switch the set to 4,2 top, 2,4 facing me, take odds and go 6 or 8 for 30 each 2 rolls and down and off on odds.

[Charlie's Dad]

Thanks to all of you for your quick replies....

[heavy]

Man, you guys are on top of it this morning.

Charlie's Dad - welcome to the forum and thanks for jumping in with both feet. There are no stupid questions (unless you are one of those idiots who think the casinos are deliberately using biased dice to beat the players). Hey, hang around long enough and you'll see one of us go off on that. LOL.

The underlying question is how to hedge against the seven on the Come Out when playing the Don'ts. Every possible approach to that has been tried. Most will work to some degree, but as has been noted above - the hedge ultimately costs you more than it saves you (over the long run). It took me awhile to get to the point that I no longer attempted straight out hedges. I just had to get to a point where I could accept a loss on the DP - which for me (I wanted $25 action on the Don'ts) meant reducing the size of my DP bet to a more tolerable amount - and following with a DC bet so I'd have a total of $25 action. To get there I bet $15 on the DP (an amount I decided I could live with losing to the 7/11) followed by a $10 DC.

With that play if the 7/11 shows on the Come Out Iose $15. If that happens I am through on that shooter. I let him go ahead and toss his hand and start over on the next shooter. What I DON'T want to do is chase a series of losses on the shooter.

If the $15 DP bet is established, then I make a $10 DC bet. If the shooter sevens out at this point I net $5. If he tosses any box number the DC bet travels. If he tosses a craps number (excluding the 12) I make $10. The eleven costs me $10 and if THAT happens I do not make another DC bet. Remember - one loss per shooter. I just wait for a decision on the DP. If I win it I will net a $5 win for the series. If I lose it my total loss is $25.

If both the DP and DC are established on points then I'm going to win both of those bets roughly 2 out of 3 times. That is a beautiful thing. But occasionally I will get knocked off one or the other. THIS is the only time that I will chase a loss. I will make an effort to recoup the loss of that one bet by laying odds on the remaining bet. So let's say the shooter makes his pass and I lose my $15 DP. At that point I'll lay $30 odds on the remaining DC bet and hope like hell the shooter tosses a seven on the next Come Out. In any case, I'll lay odds then wait for a decision on that bet. Best case scenario - I win that bet and make a small profit for that series. Worst case scenario - I lose a total of $55 for the shooter.

There are many other ways to avoid the power seven on the Come Out if you're a Don't player. John Patrick outlines most of them in his Advanced Craps book, which I highly recommend if you don't already own a copy. The most commonly used approach (other than hopping the sevens) is probably the $41 no four or no ten wager on the Come Out. You lay against either the four or the ten for that one roll. If the seven shows you win net $19 on that bet and lose your $20 DP bet for a net $1 loss. Since John wrote that book we've taken the same approach laying the inside numbers. Many of the guys feel more comfortable laying $31 no five or nine OR $25 no six or eight. The net result if the seven rolls is the same as laying $41 against the four or ten. It's just a lower cost entry.

The other strategy John likes is called the "ricochet." Playing the ric, you bypass the Don't Pass and wait until the point is established. Then you lay against the point for one roll while making a DC bet - in your case $20 on the DC. Once the second box number is rolled (assuming the eleven doesn't roll) your DC bet travels and you remove the lay against the point. The DC bet then becomes your primary action. As John says -use this play and you'll never have to fear the seven on the come out again. But you will have a bit of exposure (net $1) to it on the DC bet.

Years ago I knew a guy who used your hop sevens play. This guy was a retired construction contractor and his play was $25 on the DP and $3 hop sevens. His entire strategy entailed a quest for a parlay opportunity on the hop bet. If the $3 hopper won he parlayed it to a $15 hop sevens. If that won he parlayed it again to a $75 hop sevens. If that won he took his $375 win ($400 and down) and was done for the day. His daily win goal was $400 - or one hop bet parlayed twice. And he was fairly successful at it. Of course, if he lost $25 a shooter he'd risk breaking even or losing on as few as 16 shooters. To my way of thinking this was too much of a "lightning strike" play.

Hope this helps. Again, welcome to the forum and best of luck at the tables.

Keep those questions coming.

[220Inside]

I like this play Heavy, perhaps even more than SIA's one hit can't miss approach. In both of these strategies, I've wondered if there was enough value in tossing out a $1 yo bet to protect the PL and/or DC bets. I get that it's not an advantage to try and protect against the 7, but the $1 yo protection seems like it might be worthwhile.

[heavy]

The house edge on the YO bet is 11.11%. So every time you bet $1 YO take .11 cents out of your pocket and throw it on the floor. It's gone forever. Now let's say you stay at the table for an hour and a half and the dice make three circuits of the table - and that there are twelve players at the table. Each player takes a shot at the dice but only shoots for one game. That's thirty six games. You bet a $1 Yo on each game - or $36. Statistically you're going to win that bet twice - making $15 each time for a total of $30. The other $6 is on the floor. Some drunk will pick it up, put it in a $1 Wheel of Fortune machine and hit it for a $6 Million progressive on the second pull. And it's his $6 Million because you threw away the $6 you needed to play the machine yourself.

Okay, I'm giving you a hard time. Trim your hedge and you'll increase your profit over the long run.

Oh, and don't pay any attention to me when I say things like "see a horn - bet a horn." That statement is fraught with confirmation bias.

[flextimeLV]

"Never let a shooter beat you twice." Is it also true you should never go to the well more than once? One win per shooter, lock it up, and sit the remaining shoot, or go up on him again? If you go up on him again and he knocks you off, do you count that as the 'one beat' and get on the sideline or do you call it a wash and go up on him again? What does the 'book' say to do, whichever school of thought advocates the one beat per shooter?

Thanks!

(Note: just to clarify what I mean by a win. Either he tossed a crap two or three in the DP or DC, or he threw a comeout seven with your DC sitting behind a number.)