Three Approaches to Betting

[heavy]

There are basically just three different types of betting strategies.

1. Positive progression betting : With this strategy you raise your bet every time you win. This betting method is akin to what most players utilize, since it does not take a huge beginning bankroll. Catch a winning streak and you can amass chips quickly while pressing your bets. The Paroli system is a good example, and is a strategy I employ on those rare occasions when I play blackjack.

2. Hedge or Insurance betting systems: Regression betting falls into this category, since you're regressing your bets to "insure" you have a win. But Hedge betting - such as laying against the 4 or 10 for $41 can protect your $22 inside. Of course, then you have to hedge that hedge bet with a $5 hard four or ten. Yeah, it's considered a "safe" way to play but there is a cost associated with every bet.

3. Negative progression betting: This approach calls for you to rasise your bet every time you lose. It includes such famous strategies as the Martingale and Grand Martingale. It is centrally used in order to turn back a losing running streak. However, negative progressions demand huge bankrolls and can be extremely volatile.

Thoughts? What's your play and what category does it fall into? Why do you play that way? How well have you done with it? What is your biggest win? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Dylanfreake]

I am a darkside player and have evolved from a positive progression player to a negative progression player.

The reason why I play that way? Well, after reading MP`s Pittsburgh Johnnie article years ago , I became interested in negative progression systems. There was one big problem . My bankroll was very small. So for six or seven years , I only dreamed about playing any negative progression strategy. Besides , most gaming experts will tell you , NOT to play negative progressions.

In my early years of craps playing (I started gambling and playing at the Tunica casinos in August 2000), I sought out $1 and $3 tables in Tunica. I played Professor H`s Dont Pass Survival and also Professor H`s Dont Pass Odd`s Progression. My bankroll was small . I only had three things in my favor ---patience, discipline and the freedom to leave a table whenever I wanted to (I guess I learned that from Frank (Blackcloud). My small bankroll grew very slowly but I didn`t lose much while not winning much. I did treat any casino match plays as real money and also casinos would send you coupons for cash at the time. Those $5 cash coupons added up.

Then I started Cowtippin` (parlaying wins after reading the Dice Doctors book and also after hearing Pete on the tunica-ms board sing "Cowtippin`", a song he had written. At first I used "Cowtippin'" as a positive prgression , because most of the gaming experts said not to use negative progressions. I still dreamed about Pittsbugh Johnnie and as my bankroll began getting larger from "Cowtippin'", I started playing Oscars Grind which isn`t a true negative progression but close.

The problem with ol` Oscar was that my bankroll was just not large enough to use it . At the time , $1 and $3 tables were extinct in Tunica.

Back to "Cowtippin`" and the bankroll just grew and grew , so that last year , after almost eleven years , I was able to play comfortably using negative progressions ----same bet and a finbonacci type of play that used nubers that Dylan mentioned in his songs which I called the "Dylanacci".

Currently , because Heavy mentioned parlays and cowtippin', I am using a "Cowtippin'" negative progression.

My largest win using a negative progression is $354. My largest loss is $450.

I know a lot of you know that losing $450 in one craps session is completely out of character for me and it is . But this one time , I wanted to see if I could handle a loss this large mentally and emotionally and I found that I could only because of the size of my bankroll. It took me 20 craps sessions (41 hours of craps play) after that big loss, to get it back.

I hope I have not bored everyone. I kinda ...... well, don`t know when to shut up.

[Golfer]

20 sessions to recoup is the discipline.........or stubborness

[Dylanfreake]

Both....the problem with discipline is that stubbornness comes with it . The thing about the 20 session recoup is that I didn`t change a thing in the way I play, except maybe not trying to lose big , just to she how it "FeeeeiiiiLLLLLLLLLsssssss". "Oh, How does it fee-ill", he sang.

[heavy]

I'm actually sort of fond of running a negative progression on the free odds when you have a casino that offers 20x or 100x odds. It's a little less taxing to run your progression on the free odds where you're paid correctly as opposed to on a flat bet that's going to pay 1-1.

[Consultant]

Dylanfreake.

Do you have a method for qualifying the shooters that you will bet on(against) with your negative progression?

[Kelph]

Interesting heavy,

Let me start by saying that I bet and play the Do and Don’t differently. Second, a progression, whether positive or negative has to be sane or you lose most of what you’ve gained or dug a deeper hole even faster. So much for that.

Positive – I’ve bounced this around lots of ways over the years and this is my preferred method on the Do side. My comment on losing winnings comes from winning bets while having a number of numbers in action (depending where I am in a successful hand). Do I just increase the winning number, the winning number and its sister or all the numbers in action? If increasing just how much do I use and how much do I rack?

First decision was to only increase the winning number. The only exception may be a multi-unit winning number and betting the empty sister with a single unit to get it started. From there on it earns its way or stays where it is. Second decision is the actual progression. My initial bet amount (one to three units each) and the numbers I’ll cover (one, two or if really confident three) depends on my charting. Once made there are a limited number of throws allowed for a win or they come down or are turned off.

Like DC I’ve run different presses looking for a balance between amount risked, won, and continuing to increase potential profit during positive hands. I found a single unit press each win seems to best fit that requirement as unlikely as that may sound. I’m pulling back profits while expanding and the eventual 7 out doesn’t leave my jaw agape wondering what I did with my winnings.

No doubt pressing to the moon at the right time brings greater rewards but calling it wrong digs deeper holes. Me, I’m a conservative type and seriously attempt to win each session regardless of how small. A small win beats the hell out of a small loss. Want to talk long term? Get your sessions seriously in a row and the long term will follow.

Hedge or Insurance betting systems – Not really a big hedge player. I’ll hedge my Pass Line bet when shooting with C & E or possibly a Horn or World because sometimes I go off into the game within a game. I may hedge a DP bet (I’ll bet cold tables and shooters when indicated) with a 4 or 10 Lay bet with the extra hardway insurance until the point is established then down they come.

In general hedges can be more work for a smaller reward. At worst they can nail you hard such as an easy 4 becoming the CO Point for my DP while killing my lay and hardway. The hedge doesn’t eliminate loss just potentially reduces it but there remains a chink in the armor depending on the type and level of hedge that can really hurt.

I have enough to do watching the game, shooter, and bets to become too involved in the complexities and complications of ongoing hedging.

Negative – This is the way I play the Don’t (one or two numbers at the most) and I regard this as a child playing with fire. Know what you’re doing or stay away from it.

The nice thing about a negative progression is turning a number of losing results into a positive one. The other side of the same coin is that you receive that potential turnaround (that’s all it is, not a guarantee) by accepting the risk of losing more and faster. This can be a good tool if you are sufficiently bankrolled, have a decent and sane progression, the determination and nerves to use it, and a strong affordable stop loss limit.

I always try to remember that I’m moving along my progression because I’m losing. However I’m selecting my bets is not working or my analysis is off. Now this could be a blip or something is really wrong. If it continues that way I’d want to get out and examine what I did. So why try to build a insanely long negative progression? I just want enough time for blips to clear or my stop loss kicks me free avoiding mental and financial grief later.

IMHO there are players who don’t know how to deal with a loss in a rational manner. We all dislike losing but some go to extremes to avoid it at an even greater cost. These are the ones who get burned playing with fire. Knowing how to deal with a loss avoids having to confront much larger ones later. Not winning as much as you could have is preferable to losing more than you should have.

All three methods are decent tools and have their place though we may have some differences how and when we each apply them. There will always be those who try to hammer in a nail with a saw.

Kelph

[Dylanfreake]

No , I do not qualify shooters. To me a shooter is qualified as soon as the dice are pushed to him. It may be a goofy way to play , but I am goofy.