Betting Strategy Thread - Anyone Game?

[SHOOTITALL]

Uh, Heavy, is that West Coast time?

[DeadCat]

Having played in a few tournaments, they seem to be more like a lottery than a chance for sound betting. Just pick a bet or two and hope your number(s) come up.

In that spirit, Just or fun:

Take your $500 and Lay all 6 numbers, working on the come out.

6 & 8 for $60 each = $120
5 & 9 for $75 each = $150
4 & 10 for $80 each= $160
TOTAL = $430

I guess we could put the remaining $70 on the line and hope for a 7, unless we want to go completely bat shit and put it in the Field, replacing falling Lay bets that aren't 5,6 or 8.

This will probably not do well but stranger things have happened. I do NOT endorse it.

If it wins, we'll set it up again on the next come-out. If it loses be sure to ask for a comp for the steak house.

Clearly, I am hoping that the rolls are selected randomly and we get a short one.
After all, it's just play money.


-DC

[heavy]

SIA, any times I mention are Forney, Texas times unless otherwise stated.

Now, which one of you guys is going to step up and play "The Method" on this series?

[Buy The Four]

"The Method" is useless if you are pulling rolls from different sessions. The rolls have to be from one continuous session at one table. Otherwise, there is no need to track and find the trend. Hope that helps in the selection of rolls Heavy.

[al_falcons]

I'm in too. I'll keep track of al_falcons's suggestion as well.

Thanks wudged!

[WOLFBYTE]

Hi Heavy..........

I would like to use Mark R.'s :

" JP. How to make a living w/full hedge Craps System "

It was posted on 09/21/2009 and I have brought it back-up for a second look.

It works with ' triggers. ' I piggy-back JP's Ricochet DP/DC C/O protection against the C/O 7

on it.

It is a grind system that looks like if you lived near real Casino's....you could

grind out + $200.00 to + $500.00 a day...day-after-day.... with low risk ?

WBB
WolfButtByte or.... W7.

[Mad Professor]

grind out + $200.00 to + $500.00 a day...day-after-day.... with low risk ?

...on this bet-trial's $500 buy-in?


MP

[Mad Professor]

How about a one hit strat? $18 6/8 $20 DP, Close to 10% so could run it ~9 times, once around the table?

MP did at stat on this a year or two ago, can't remember the results, but seems like around 5% disadvantage. Memory fades.

Hi SIA,


I remember that discussion.

I think we were pencilling-out the expected-loss for a combined DP/6 & 8 Place-bet where we had a $100 Don't Pass wager combined with $48 each on the 6 and 8.

To properly appraise a composite, multi-bet set of wagers; we first have to break it down into its components.

~Let's start with the $100 Don't Pass wager which is being thrown randomly (SRR-6) on the Come-Out.

~In a random game, we know that the DP wager will provide an instant even-money C-O win on the 2 or 3 about once every 12 come-out tosses (8.33% of the time).

~We also know that in a random game, the DP wager will offer up an instant C-O loser to the 7 or 11 about once every 4.5 come-out tosses (22.22% of the time).

~So of all the come-out tosses, you'll run into a C-O 'decision' about once every 3.27 C-O tosses (30.55% of the time).

~Unfortunately for the DP bettor, those come-out decisions will go against him about 72.7% of the time; while they'll be decided in his favor about 27.3% of the time.

~In random expectancy, we’ll see five 6’s and five 8’s against six appearances of the 7. That ratio of 10:6 means a random-roller can expect a 6’s-and-8’s-to-7’s appearance-rate of 1.67:1, and those two bets constitute 27.78% of all possible outcomes.

~That means that with their 7:6 payout ratio, a combined Place-bet of $48 each on the 6 and 8 will produce an overall expected loss of -$2.48 per hand and a negative ROI of -2.58%.


Now if we move that same DP w/Place-6 & 8 question into the skilled-shooter >SRR-6 category; then there's definitely plenty of room for a positive ROI outcome.


MP

[heavy]

"The Method" is useless if you are pulling rolls from different sessions. The rolls have to be from one continuous session at one table. Otherwise, there is no need to track and find the trend. Hope that helps in the selection of rolls Heavy.

Yeah, as I understand it, the author looks for trends by reviewing a series of 12 numbers on a shooter to determine what the trend is. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on that. Anyway, here's the deal. That strategy looks at trends on individual shooters. What makes this interesting to me is that twenty years ago when everyone was talking about charting tables - I was telling them they needed to break it down further and chart individual shooters. I've continued to preach that approach through the years. However, there's also some validity (IMHO) to charting the entire table's results. Had you been at my last live session in Bossier City you might have heard me say "it's nine day at Boomtown." That's because everybody at the table was throwing a preponderance of nines. I like nines. I noticed this right off the bat.

Now, I can't give anything away on the selection of rolls, but I will tell you that I feel confident that at LEAST one shooter will get beyond the 12 number mark.

Should any of you decide to play the method or any variant of it let's not make a big deal of it. I don't want anyone to get in trouble with Steve Nelli over revealing any secrets - even though something like 99% of the system is available out there on the Internet for anyone who knows what system the method is based on and how to use Google.

[Roller123]

Heavy,

Will the rolls you choose be from a DI or random roller? How many total rolls will you choose?

Thanks,

Roller

[heavy]

The rolls will all be from bonetracker sessions I've done with students over the last few years - so these will be people who (hopefully) exhibit some skill. Haven't decided on how many tosses. We may run this thing for a full month if anyone is interested in looking at 30 plus rolls. But I won't tell you that we're going to quit with exactly 30 rolls. Rather, we'll continue past that number until the point at that time is resolved. At least that's what I'm thinking at the moment.

If you guys would prefer - I could post 2 rolls a day for 2 weeks or something like that. I'd post both decisions at the same time and you'd have to come in and post your adjustments to your bets, etc. at that time. Thoughts?

[Roller123]

I'm good with the 30 days. I can only access my computer once on some days due to work commitments.

Roller

[heavy]

Okay, guys. I am going to start a fresh thread tonight to be used for the betting strategy game. I'll give you the format I want your posts in on the new thread, as well as a few basic rules to follow. We'll handle any issues that crop up as they reveal themselves.

[amish dude]

I'm getting IN, how about you ?

[rubin74]

Is this still open to join?

[heavy]

Sure - we just did roll one last night. You'll have to miss that one. Roll two tonight. Look for the new game thread and post your strategy. Please be sure you read the entire thread and look for the posting guidelines. I'd like to keep this stuff in the same format as much as possible.

[Mad Professor]

How about a one hit strat? $18 6/8 $20 DP, Close to 10% so could run it ~9 times, once around the table?
MP did a stat on this a year or two ago, can't remember the results, but seems like around 5% disadvantage. Memory fades.

I had almost forgotten about that one, SIA.

Here's that How Effective is a Large-DP w/Half-Sized Place-bet 6 and 8 Strategy? article you were asking about.



MP