Why is it so hard to win big at craps?

[heavy]

Why it’s Harder to Win at Big at Craps
By Steve “Heavy” Haltom

Many gamblers play craps simply because they want a game with an extremely low house advantage. By limiting their bets to Pass and Come or Don’t Pass and Don’t Come, then taking or laying Free Odds, these craps players cut the house edge to well below one percent.

So why do these savvy bettors often find their sessions less rewarding than slots or some of the higher-edge table games such as Roulette? The answer lies in the volatility of the game.

Volatility is the variable that causes those huge swings in bankroll. “Natural” winners and winning flat bets only pay 1 to 1 in craps. You bet five dollars – and if the wager wins you win five dollars. In order to win substantially more than a unit or two here and there you have to risk substantially more.

On the other hand, slots players and those who play the higher edge table games often experience wider swings due to payout schedules featuring returns ranging from a few dollars to gigantic jackpots - all for the same nominal bet. On a slot machine, you can luck out and hit “the big one” for a single wager. While in Biloxi a couple of months back I dropped around $30 in a $5 slot and won a $1600 jackpot. To score a comparable win at craps you’d have to parlay a $1 hard ten to $8 – then to $60 – then hit it three more times.

For a big score in craps you have to get lucky – not just once – but on a long run of wagers that increase in size over the course of the streak. Betting $5 on Pass and taking 5X odds, then making two Come bets with odds for the same amount, can expose a player to a hit of $90 or slightly more, yet bring in no more than $55 on any one throw. A $1000 bankroll is marginally adequate for a long session with these bets. Picture, though, how hot a table would have to be for those $35 to $55 wins to offset the $90 losses and add up to $1800 in winnings our slot player locked up. Then you start to understand the volatility of the low-edge game.

Do I recommend playing slots? Not at all. Do I play them? Just about every time I go to the casino. It’s a cheap enough way to “rent” a chair when I want to take a break from craps. And who knows? I might even get a lightning strike.

What's your thinking? How much was your biggest single session win at caps and how did you get there?

[heavy]

Yeah, that would do it, Taboo.

[Operator]

The most inportant thread going and a question we should all ask our selfs.

[Americraps]

Why? Because most of us are unwilling to bet a lot, or at least leave it out there. Regression really limits your upside as much as your downside. My biggest win was something like $2100. I got it by have a thirty something roll with $167 across pressing from the first hit, no regression.

[heavy]

Americraps has hit on an important key, and one that John Patrick used tot alk about all the time. If you're playing $44 inside - hit and down and are winning $150 a session - and you want to win $1500 a session - then you should be playing $440 inside for your session.

[memo]

A few weeks ago I was playing with my dad, at Bellagio.
This guy walked up and threw out a couple of Benjamins. One for the twelve and one for the eleven. The whole table took a collective breath. Of course the bets fell. Next was a horn bet...Same thing. I thought the guy was through.

A few rolls later he played all the hardways for twenty-five dollars each. Not much luck there either. He then placed the six and eight. Sensible bets..I thought he had a come to Jesus moment. But no! He funded new horn bets with the winnings.

My dad who is a pretty good rythim roller, had the dice, and was having a pretty good hand. The guy already had a horn bet, a hi-low, and now tossed out another c-note for 12-midnight. The table made another collective gasp. My dad tossed the dice and we were all rewarded with a twelve.
Win, win, win..Pay Pay Pay. Fun, and exciting to watch. He immediately cashed out. In about 6-7 minutes he made over five thousand dollars, risking 6-7 hundred. I told him that it was interesting how he used place bets to fund prop bets....Yes he plays that way quite often. Tossed a green chip to my dad, and was gone.

Who was it said that it is hard to win big at craps?? Maybe I should rethink my betting.

Memo

[Blackcloud]

UNHH!!Craps like all the other games has all the odds stacked against us UNHH!!The ability to quickly identify trends in the game and riding them is a big part of winning. UNHH!!When the trend dies, getting off of it is also important UNHH!!A shooter that can hit his bets therefore, has an advantage UNHH!!A little help from the Great Spirit is a distinct advantage UNHH!!

[FROCKAWAY]

Big wins seem to be somewhat elusive.
My most recent big win was Dec. $1300 on the cruise ship Carnival Liberty. It was the last day, and the weather was dreadful. The table was packed and somehow I switched from the don't at just the right time. Not to mention the monster hand of my own doing.

Previous to that my all time biggest win was $3100. All on the don't. For 3 hours no one oculd make a pass.
I'd love to win more then these but honestly. If i buy in with $1000, then a 200-300 win should be quite satisfying.

[Mad Professor]

Hi Frockaway,

One of the best ways to look at your per-session earn-rate is to measure it against your average bet-spread or your average 7-exposure per hand.

~So for instance, let's say that you usually bet $10 on the PL backed with an average of $30 in Odds...plus $66-Inside...plus about $10 to $15 in H-way, Hop, and prop action nearly every time you shoot.

~That equates to an average 7-exposure bet-spread of around $120 when you are the shooter.

~If your multi-session winnings works out to an average of around +$180 per-session; then your earn-rate is equivalent to about 1.5 average-spread hands.

~The reason this approach gives you a somewhat truer measure of your talents than some of the others, is because a buy-in doesn't measure the actual exposure-rate of the money.

So for example, if a player employs all kinds of mental gymnastics like using a big buy-in of let's say $2000, but is only betting an average-spread of around $30, while also employing a super-tight loss-limit of $100; then his buy-in means virtually nothing when he's looking at his per-session earn-rate.

If that was the case, then our +$180/session D-I would have a 36% return on a $500 buy-in, but only an 18% return-rate on a $1000 buy-in...and a 9% return on a $2000 buy-in.

The same thing applies to a 50% loss-limit. If you are only willing to risk $500 of a $1000 buy-in; then anything you win or lose has to be applied to the actual-exposure amount.

So for example if you lost $500 of a $500 loss-limit (regardless of the buy-in); then you lost 100% of what you were willing to expose.

Now some folks will take solace in the fact that they only lost 50% of their $1000 buy-in (and if that helps the mental side of their game, fine); but the fact remains that they lost 100% of what they were actually willing to expose.

Now obviously using the profit/session-to-average-7-exposure rate-of-return isn't perfect either; but it gives you a rough measure of your rate-of-return vs. your rate-of-exposure.


MP

[wild child]

.

Take the money and run works.........

After A WIN : An often repeated quote from HEAVY and in so many words M P : "Take my bets down"

That seems to lock up the early profit(s)

If you are addicted to hanging out at "YOUR SPOT" on the CRAPS TABLE, another trick of the trade is the often times ELUSIVE I.S.R.

I S R stands for Initial Steep Reduction of Money At Risk.

There are people on this board who are using and have been using this "Secret Technique" to some high degree of success.
Say You have a $150 Place Bet on the box number 5 .

The shooter , you or just any generic shooter tosses THE FIVE.

The DEALER pays you $225

You promptly say : " Mr Dealer , make my FIVE look like $10 Thank You.

Mr Dealer follows through.

You have the option of tossing a single $ or $$$$$ as a TOKE for " THE BOYS & GIRLS"

You are now holding your original $150 PLUS Winnings minus new place bet , if any,and minus TOKE , if any
($225-$ TOKE - $$$ REPLACEMENT BET = also referred to as PROFIT ) on that wager and are up to win again ,should the FIVE REPEAT. Some players are alleged to increase the value of the chips at risk as the I S R # repeats.

A few are alleged to remove as in " TAKE DOWN " other wagers and concentrate on the BOX # which are currently SHOWING on a specific hand........... In a nut sack that is one way to WIN BIG or at least win something which is said to be better than loosing anything.

Even the character building " TAKE MY BETS DOWN " methodology is reputed to work.

At times those moves may leave a person wanting for THE ACTION.... This is the point at which the character building exercises enter and take the center stage ....


Other folks communicate far better than I and may have better some explanation of the " HOW TO" of the ever so elusive I S R / TAKE MY BETS DOWN methodology..... and by far better at character building..............

That is all I have to say on the subject....

W C