What are the odds?

[heavy]

This is a reprint of an article on bad bets that appeared in this month's newsletter. I'm reposting it here. In the near future I'm going to start a "sticky" thread on odds and the mathematics of gambling. Watch for that in the days to come ...


Surprise. There’s absolutely nothing you don’t already know in this article. Nevertheless, it’s information you need to hear again. Why? Because most of you still haven’t learned the lesson. You continue to make bad bets at craps, then wonder where all of your money went. So let’s get those bad bets out of the way for once and for all.

There are plenty of craps strategies and systems that recommend some pretty terrible bets – bets with a huge house edge. So here’s a tip for you. If a betting system recommends these bets – avoid it like the plague. Some of those bets have a massive house edge. Take, for example, the Field Bet. In a “double the Field on the 12” game you’re paying a house edge of roughly 5.6%. That means for every $10 you bet in the Field you are effectively throwing .56 cents on the floor. Make ten Field bets and it adds up to $5.60. Sixty Field bets over the course of an hour will set you back $33.60. Of course, these are “long run” numbers, but if you are a long run player then ultimately you pay the price.

What if you’re going to play the urban version of the ABS (Anything but Seven) strategy. Instead of placing the five, six, and eight you bet the Big Six and Big Eight plus the Field. The Big Six and Big Eight each carry a 9.09% house edge. A $10 Big Six bet costs you .91 cents. A $10 Bix Eight bet also costs you .91 cents. Bet them both and you’re out $1.82 per decision. Multiply that times twenty decisions per hour (you only pay the house edge when you win) and we’re talking $36.40 an hour. Now add that to the $33.60 you lost on the Field bet and you’re down $70 an hour – all off of one silly system.

Want to compound the problem even further? Toss out an occasional “Dollar Yo.” Add an occasional “High Low.” Oh, and give me all the Hardways. It’s no wonder it’s so tough to win this game. Those “entertainment” bets eat your bankroll like Elvis on a jelly donut.

Below is a list of the worst possible bets you can make when playing Craps.


Field Bet – 5.6% house edge
Big 6 or 8 – 9.09% house edge
Hard Ways Bet – 11.1% house edge
Proposition bets – Horns, High-Low, World, Yo, Any Craps - up to a massive 16.7% house edge

And while you are at it – keep in mind the huge house edge on those “carnival” bets we’ve come to love.

Bonus Bet (All Tall Small) – Around 7.6% house edge on the Tall and Small – 7.9% on the All
Fire Bet – 21.3% house edge
Repeater Bet – Up to 21% house edge – number dependent

So what the heck bets CAN you make if you want to win more (or lose less) at craps? If you follow the math of the game this is going to look very familiar to you. Make the smallest Pass or Don’t Pass wager you can afford, then take the most in Free Odds you can afford. If you want more action you can make additional small Come or Don’t Come bets with the largest amount of Free Odds you can afford. Mind you, playing a large amount of Free Odds increases your bankroll volatility. That can be very good – or very bad. When things go South they can take your bankroll with them in a hurry.

The house edge on the Pass/Don’t Pass and Come/Don’t Come is around 1.41%. The best way to reduce the odds even further is to take or lay odds, which can get the house edge down to .61% or less. If you feel like you need some sort of system beyond these bets – try playing a “follow the trend” strategy. Bet the same as the last decision or the decision before the last decision. It won’t improve your odds – but when it works you’ll feel like the smartest guy at the table.

[London Shooter]

Two things I would also say here:

Some CET properties, in Vegas especially, use the "for 1" payment rather than "to 1" so a snake eyes bet, for example, that may usually be paid at 30 to 1 is marked as 30 for 1 so they are getting an extra unit off you via the short pay.

Secondly, the common trend now is to change the All Tall Small payments from 34 to 1 to 30 to 1 for the Small/Tall and 175 to 1 to 150 to 1 for the All. House edge then approaches firebet nonsense with 18.30% and 21.61% respectively.

[Bankerdude80]

Greedy bastards.

[Dark Side]

You don't have to play them ...

I don't!

[Jp1030]

What do you think of taking the comp chips, ( i usually get $80 of comp chips a month at my favorite casino) and using them for some of the higher Vig bets?.... lately Ive been putting $5 hard ways bet with these with fair luck.
JP

[Moe Bettor]

The DI thing, that I've seen is, apparently "If you can throw it, bet on it." Especially the ATS and hardways. If anybody is playing the repeater, well..

[DarthNater]

Hey, I play the Repeater in certain situations - specifically when I'm in my preferred shooting position and/or on a table I know well. I don't blindly play all the numbers, but rather those that I think are in my wheelhouse. Those are the 2,3,4,11 & 12; I think there's a thread elsewhere here on the board detailing several players experiences with the Repeater.

As to the odds.... to quote my nemesis Han Solo "Never tell me the odds"...... D.N8r

[London Shooter]

JP I think it is good tactics if you can to bet the promo chips on higher odds bets, even in the vig on these is usually high. I have done it in the past with the ATS at Treasure Bay and in London am lucky enough I can bet my promo chips on any bet in the house. Currently I have settled on using them on a BJ sidebet which pays 9/1 and have had some success there too.

Generally though, as suggested, promo chips can only be bet on even money options in most casinos, so they are quite restrictive in their use.

Are you able to place your ones on roulette? That is another good option for looking at a high odds payout potential.

DN, I'm not a particular fan of the repeater either but I don't mind the odd punt on the 2,3,11 & 12 similar to yourself. I'll give it a crack with the crossed 6s set when doing so.

[Big O]

I have always wanted to play where they had the repeater bet. As London Shooter said above, when throwing the X6s i throw a lot of 3,11,12 & 2s. This past weekend at the Horseshoe i opened a hand 3,3,3,11,6,6,3,3,12. I was unable to duplicate my success on the extreme outside numbers at the Eldorado where the have a 14 ft crap-less table. The tables at the horseshoe are 12 ft. I felt like i was having to put a little extra into the toss on the longer tables even though there was no heat on a couple of short tosses. That wasnt the case at Sams town! Thought i was going to need bail money for my playing partner. A good story i hope to include in a trip report when i can get caught up. It might be a while. I am loading the truck for my annual thanksgiving bow hunting trip. No internet at camp and almost no cell service.

[Bankerdude80]

I too dislike the repeater bonus bet. Unless you can hit a quantity of specific numbers consistently, it is a good way to slow bleed the BR. That being said, I had a decent hand at PH in Las Vegas during Crapsfest weekend in which I hit the 2,3,12,6,8, and 9 repeaters during the same hand where I bet $1 each on them. I was not expecting that! Not that I'm complaining...

[heavy]

ditto

[pappyvanwinkle]

agreed

[Bankerdude80]

That is also the case with the ATS bet. Especially when it resets on a come out seven. Does the action on the bonus bets offset the hold a. Casino can expect when the game isn't slowed down? In seeing how some dealers manage these bets, it seems the casino may be hurting itself with the slowerr game.

[mssthis1]

Yep, What Irish said. The ATS bet on full tables can make comeout sevens about as much fun as getting your wisdom teeth pulled.

[bobr]

What do you think of taking the comp chips, ( i usually get $80 of comp chips a month at my favorite casino) and using them for some of the higher Vig bets?.... lately Ive been putting $5 hard ways bet with these with fair luck.

If you can only play a chip once, and lose it whether you win or lose, then playing the chips on a long shot, like 2 or 12 increases the value of the chips. The vig is still working against you, though. I like the 4&10 as a good compromise if you can bet at least $25. Most casinos are wise to this, though, and will only pay even money on those chips. I think the Reserve (now Grand Z) in Central City let me play the 4&10 when I tried it there recently.

If the comp chips play until they lose, then you should play them exactly like any other money, just use them up first before you put your real chips on the line.

[London Shooter]

I wonder if the maths has ever been done for ATS and repeater bets via a reduced payoff but no re-set on a CO 7.....as we see with the Firebet?

[bobr]

I wonder if the maths has ever been done for ATS and repeater bets via a reduced payoff but no re-set on a CO 7.....as we see with the Firebet?

If they just turned ATS off on the comeout then the odds could stay the same, seems to me. But if the casino is making $$ per roll from that bet, they don't want to miss the action. Plus, maybe people are more likely to reset the bet for a comeout seven then a roll-ending seven.

[Bankerdude80]

Some interesting videos with a college professor discussing craps probability.

[heavy]

If he has a man-bun then odds are I'm not listening to what he has to say. I might be interested in his comic collection, but that's probably about it. Just saying.

[heavy]

What are the odds of a college professor having three WalMart sport shirts that don't fit?