Realistic Win Goals and Bankroll management for hobbyist dice influencers?

[mainframe]

Hey all!
I just read a thread called "revisiting the Kelly Criterion" and I read a lot of well-worded advice regarding bankroll and bet size for advantage play. Heavy also had some very good points in that thread and in related threads.

I am not a professional gambler. I don't intend to ever make shooting craps or playing blackjack my "day job". That said, I am continually trying to improve my dice influencing skill. I also want to learn the mathematics, bankroll, and bet managements skills necessary to be able to achieve a modest profit, rather then a loss as often as possible whenever I engage in casino gambling.

I know that some basics of money management include "setting a win goal and loss limit" for any given gambling session, and having the discipline to "stick" to the parameters you set.

My question are as follows:
1. For a certain session bankroll, and a certain betting strategy, what is a reasonable/realistic "win goal", when betting only on random rollers?

2. For a certain session bankroll, and a certain betting strategy, what is a reasonable/realistic "win goal", when betting on a dice influencer with a reasonably accurate, documented "player advantage"?

Let's say I happen to be going to Vegas for a five-night stay for a trade show, and I happen to set aside a total "trip bankroll" of $1,000. In essence, over the course of the trip, I am willing to risk losing no more than the $1,000 I set aside in an envelope. Let's say further that I divide that "trip bankroll" into five $200 bankrolls representing five "evenings after work" where I will go play craps at tables with $5 - $10 table minimums.

For any given "session" at a craps table, I will walk away from the table (and the casino) if I lose all $200 I set aside for a "daily bankroll".

Given the above parameters, what is a reasonable/realistic win goal for any given evening? If I buy-in for $200 at a $10 table and do nothing but pass, come with odds, or DP/DC with odds, what would be a realistic win goal. If I double the money and make it $400, is it time to walk away? Is doubling my buy-in an unrealistic goal?

I know I still haven't ironed out alot of parameters, such as my DI advantage for a given bet.

Mainframe

[DanF]

Poker/ gambling rule #1, never walk away on a winning day. Set a win reserve like 3550$ out of 400, but keep going when it's rolling your way. Leave when it's not. It's easy to see even if you don't lose 200$, sometimes it's 50$, but you can't seem to have a move going for you, you barely break even with a few losses. Leave and get a beer in a bar, come back a few hours later or the next day.

[Dylanfreake]

A realistic win goal according to Professor H is 5 average initial wagers. Playing a $5 PL taking single odds, or playing a $5 DP laying single odds is around a $10 to $11 average initial wager. So a reasonable win goal would be $50 to $55. Since a dice influencer has a 1% to 2% advantage , the same win goal would apply.

[220Inside]

I think most people here would set a stop loss limit before losing the entire $200 session, but if that's what you're comfortable with it's your system and comfort level. But kudos for using the envelope system to start with.

On the other end of the spectrum, I never think in terms of a win limit. If I get up by 50% of my buy in, I will set a loss limit on the winnings with the intent of not giving it all back. As I progress past that initial win threshold, say to 100% of buy in, I'll move my winning loss limit accordingly.

[SHOOTITALL]

Small antecedent story: A gal I worked with went to S/B for two nights. An hour after she arrived, she hit a $10 grand jackpot. When she left two days later, she had given back the $10 grand plus all she brought with her. Yea, I worked with folks that dumb (and it may have rubbed off on me).

[Bankerdude80]

Let's say I happen to be going to Vegas for a five-night stay for a trade show, and I happen to set aside a total "trip bankroll" of $1,000. In essence, over the course of the trip, I am willing to risk losing no more than the $1,000 I set aside in an envelope. Let's say further
that I divide that "trip bankroll" into five $200 bankrolls representing five "evenings after work" where I will go play craps at tables with $5 - $10 table minimums.

Given the above parameters, what is a reasonable/realistic win goal for any given evening? If I buy-in for $200 at a $10 table and do nothing but pass, come with odds, or DP/DC with odds, what would be a realistic win goal. If I double the money and make it $400, is it time to walk away? Is doubling my buy-in an unrealistic goal?

Mainframe

With the above criteria, I would plan my trip as follows. I'll incorporate the five nights to include two weekend nights. Given this is all
hypothetical.I would try to eliminate one or two days of play so as to increase my daily bankroll. There's a lot to do in Las Vegas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT- This is the day of travel to get to Las Vegas. So I would try not to play craps this night. I'd call it an early night. Rest up.
THURSDAY NIGHT- $300 for one session at no higher than $10 min table, preferably $5 min. Playing rightside. Stop loss $100.
FRIDAY NIGHT- $300 for one session at no higher than $10 min table, preferably $5 min. Playing rightside. Stop loss $100.
SATURDAY NIGHT- $200 for one evening of darkside play . Grind a win by playing the DP. Stop loss $100.
SUNDAY NIGHT- $200 for one session at no higher than $10 min table, preferably $5 min. Playing rightside. Stop loss $100.

If I have all losing sessions and I stick with my stop losses, I still come home with $400 to fight another day.

I would ladder up my wins. For example, say my $300 is now $450 during a session. $400 is my stop loss now. I would use $50 increments to
ladder up. Lock in those profits.

Saturday nights are too busy and the table minimums are high. I usually try not to play Saturday nights.
Notice the last two days have smaller daily BR? This is by design. If I can put together wins on the first two days then I am ahead of the game. I
can adjust my daily session BR by locking up the profit and maybe increasing the daily BR for the last two days. Locking up a profit is the priority.

One thing I might add is that because the daily BR is small, if you can find a $5 game it will give you greater flexibility.
Remember, you do not have to bet on every shooter. If you have a decent toss, better to save the money for your own shooting.

Limit those center and bonus bets. Remember, craps is a negative expectation game. Losing sessions do occur. It's the variance of the game.
Don't beat yourself up and don't let yourself go on tilt. Remember what Heavy says, "If it ain't fun, it's time to run."

If you go in with a plan and stick it out, the better the chance for success. Have a betting strategy before you get to the table. You can always
walk away when things are not going well. Never be afraid to say ,"COLOR!"

My question are as follows:
1. For a certain session bankroll, and a certain betting strategy, what is a reasonable/realistic "win goal", when betting only on random rollers?

I do not make a win goal for each shooter. I set a fixed amount to bet on other shooters. Usually I start with a $12 six or eight at a $10 min table or $6 six and eight at a $5 min table. If they qualify a la Grafstein, I may bet PL+odds for their 2nd point attempt from then on.
I am a happy camper if I just break-even on other shooters.

2. For a certain session bankroll, and a certain betting strategy, what is a reasonable/realistic "win goal", when betting on a dice influencer with a reasonably accurate, documented "player advantage"?

See #1 above. My biggest bet is made only when I am shooting. Others have to prove it that day. Granted I might lose out on a bit if they
have a great hand to start, but I am ready to pounce and increase my exposure as warranted.

This is just my play, others may have a different viewpoint.

[Bankerdude80]

One more thing, RD Ellison in his book Advanced Craps has a Chapter titled "Settle For 90", meaning don't try to win that $10 or $20 to get to a even $100 increment. If you only have $90 and the table is going South, leave with the $90. Don't try to wait it out to get to an even $100.

[heavy]

Yep. Bankerdude covered pretty much everything I would have. No play on travel days. Use the envelope system and divide your bankroll into session money (I use the same amount for every envelope). Set a reasonable loss limit (for me - 50% - 60% of buy in - for others I recommend 25% - 30%). Set a reasonable win goal (win goal is not a win stop - as said earlier, as long as you are winning keep playing. My minimum win goal is 50% of buy in but I'll settle for less). The one thing I didn't see mentioned is the "Take Home" envelope. After each session you take whatever money you have from that session (win or loss - including buy in and any profits) and stick it in an envelope marked "take home.' That envelope goes in the room safe and does not come out until you're checking out of the hotel and heading home). Good thread, guys.

[mainframe]

Small antecedent story: A gal I worked with went to S/B for two nights. An hour after she arrived, she hit a $10 grand jackpot. When she left two days later, she had given back the $10 grand plus all she brought with her. Yea, I worked with folks that dumb (and it may have rubbed off on me).

Shootitall: What/were is "S/B"?
The same sort of thing happened to me that happened to your co-worker, albeit on a smaller scale.
The first time I ever wagered a single cent at a casino was at Foxwoods. I was there for an anniversary weekend getaway with the mrs.
I put a $20 bill in a progressive penny slot machine, spun the wheels a few times, and hit a progressive jackpot that amounted to a win of $472.
I then proceeded to spend the next two days slowly loosing all $472 that I had won. I didn't lighten my wallet at all on gambling, but I spent a decent amount on the hotel stay and food. My wife pointed out that if I had just pocketed the $472 and refrained from gambling that weekend, we would have easily had all of our meals and entertainment paid for. Oh well.

[220Inside]

S/B = Shreveport/Bossier LA.

[pappyvanwinkle]

echoing on Heavy, Bankerdude, I think Bankerdude covered most of what I'd kinda say regarding execution. Where I'm going to differ is regarding your goals. My monetary goals will probably be similar to Heavy's, but I will settle for less. My big thing is, are you enjoying yourself? As your title states, looking at this from the perspective as a hobbyist DI. I'm assuming you want to enjoy your hobby. I know there were the comments about never walking away from a winning table. Depends on your perspective, if this were your main income stream or job, I'd say yeah, stay and get as much profit as you can. If your a professional poker player, this is the answer, because they are looking at everything in terms of Expected Value. I know some players, and they go to some nice resorts and when I ask them about it, they can't tell me anything about the resort or area, the answer is, "I only saw the inside of the poker room for 5 days, because the game was that good".

I generally stay while I'm enjoying myself. If I'm not having fun, I'll probably leave and do something else. For example, ShootItAll is a great person to play with. SIA doesn't generally risk a lot of money, he's got his OneHitCan'tMiss play, but he has a good time at the table just tossing the dice. I recall one shot I think we called it the Statue of Liberty toss. He'd have the dice in one hand, on one leg, counter balanced simultaneously with a beer in the other hand. If at the end of the session, SIA were up, he'd still toss the money to the dealers as a tip.

You said

I put a $20 bill in a progressive penny slot machine, spun the wheels a few times, and hit a progressive jackpot that amounted to a win of $472.
I then proceeded to spend the next two days slowly loosing all $472 that I had won. I didn't lighten my wallet at all on gambling, but I spent a decent amount on the hotel stay and food. My wife pointed out that if I had just pocketed the $472 and refrained from gambling that weekend, we would have easily had all of our meals and entertainment paid for. Oh well.

You said you spent the next two days slowly losing all $472, if you enjoyed whatever you played, I'd say okay, but it sounds like you didn't. Did you get value out of that $472? You could've taken your wife to a nicer restaurant or show. My point is, you'll have a positive memory from the experience, later on. Are you going to put much value on that $472 later? When I first started DI, I got a great piece of advice after my first nice size win, person told me to go buy something. So, I bought like a $500 mini camera. I can't tell you the details about the win anymore, but overtime I see that camera, it brings up a nice memory. At the time, I do recall having a grandiose visions of taking all that money and playing at the $25 or $50 table and making a huge score there.

Just another perspective. Don't turn your hobby into a grind, at some point you'll just start hating the game.

Pappy

[heavy]

He would take the session buy in and divide it by five. The concept was to play five hands.
Similar to the envelop idea already mentioned, any per hand winnings went into his pocket. After the completion of the five hands he would typically color up. The exception would be if he had a stellar 5 hand session. If so, he would take 1/2 of the winnings and continue to play.

This is very much like Grafstein's play. He'd divide his bankroll into ten hands - enough to get the dice once around the table. $300 equals $30 per shooter. All winnings went into the back rack. After ten hands he'd count the money in the back rack. If it was more than $300 he'd keep playing. If it was less then he'd end the session.

[mainframe]

You said you spent the next two days slowly losing all $472, if you enjoyed whatever you played, I'd say okay, but it sounds like you didn't. Did you get value out of that $472? You could've taken your wife to a nicer restaurant or show. My point is, you'll have a positive memory from the experience, later on. Are you going to put much value on that $472 later? When I first started DI, I got a great piece of advice after my first nice size win, person told me to go buy something. So, I bought like a $500 mini camera. I can't tell you the details about the win anymore, but overtime I see that camera, it brings up a nice memory. At the time, I do recall having a grandiose visions of taking all that money and playing at the $25 or $50 table and making a huge score there.
Just another perspective. Don't turn your hobby into a grind, at some point you'll just start hating the game.
Pappy

Well that little story was referring to my absolute first experience with Casino gambling. I had never tried any table or slot games before that anniversary trip to Foxwoods. If I remember correctly, I ONLY played slots during that first trip because I didn't feel I had a good enough grasp of the rules of any table games to try anything else. Did I have fun winning the $472 and using it as a "free bankroll" for slots the rest of the weekend? The answer is yes. I wasn't super-enamored by the slots at the time...my wife and I played slots sporadically over the course of a weekend while doing a other enjoyable activities (mostly restaurants and lounging by the pool). I *did* value the entertainment time on the slots, but in retrospect, I would have valued using that money for other entertainment or for something "tangible" (i.e. a product purchase) more than using it as a bankroll.

But to your point, yeah...I shoot craps to have fun and hopefully win a little bit of money. If I win "a lot", even better. If I lose some, but not all of my session bankroll, that is acceptable as well. If the table vibe, positive energy, camaraderie, free drinks, etc are all very good and I roughly break even during a few hours of gambling, then I'd consider it a worthwhile expense.

[Bankerdude80]

Bump.

[heavy]

Great thread. Thanks for the bump.