Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

obie1 wrote: We consider every roll of the dice to be an "INDICATOR".
Obie1

That is the biggest load of bull I have read since CrapsGenious posted on this forum.... You cannot tell what the next roll of the dice is going to be based on a previous roll. THERE IS NO CONNECTION..... Go sell stupid somewhere else.

You would have been better off saying something like this "After watching a particular shooter for a period of time, you could pick up a pattern in the toss based on certain elements around him / her." I would have believed that instead of your quote above. Obviously you feel confident enough in your system that you are willing to put your neck out on the line and invite people to watch you at work. My hat off for you. But please remember we have new members joining this forum on a regular basis and I would hate for some of them to fall into this illusion that you are a clairvoyant and can show us all how to be the same... Every roll is independent.

I am not buying into this...

The math that obie1 talks about has nothing to do with calculating odds or probabilities. It's simply a method of determining whether certain numbers are rolling on a more or less than expected basis. This is something that is done in virtually all charting strategies, whether it be the strategy, method, or even my Trendmasters charting strategy. If the seven is rolling more frequently than it should be - use that information to your advantage. If the five is rolling more frequently than is should be - use that information to your advantage. If the eight hasn't rolled in the last forty-two tosses - use that information to your advantage. Is every roll independent of the prior rolls? Yes and no. Just as in the stock market the disclaimer reads something to the effect of "past performance is not an indicator of future performance." It is not - always. But there are plenty of guys out there who do very well in the markets by analyzing prior results and making decisions on things that often seem completely unrelated to the underlying stock. Remember Dylanfreake's old axiom - The dice have no memory but they do have a history? To which I added "and history tends to repeat itself?"

If I am charting a table and over the course of the last five hands every shooter has sevened out without making a pass - I'm going to play the Don'ts. But if every shooter is tossing two or three numbers before sevening out and every one of them has tossed at least one five - I'm going to Place bet the five in addition to playing either a DP or a DC bet. Whether you guys grasp it or not - that is exactly what Obie1 is talking about.

I think Obie1's posts tend to suffer because he does not differentiate between calculations relative to the odds of something happening - and the math he uses in the strategy to determine when and what to bet. Anyone who has this info will better understand what he's doing with his play. To those who don't - it probably looks like dice voodoo.

Don't believe in charting? Then the strategy is not for you. Unsure? Then why not take Obie1 up on his offer to hook-up at the tables where you can observe his play. Just want to take shots at him and keep things stirred up? Frankly, I'm getting a little tired of that.

Well, you and I have discussed the efficacy of charting many times through the years and have agreed to disagree. We've heard the same type of mathematical arguments made against DI from the pre-Wong days and on the old rec.gambling.craps newsgroup, by the way. That never stopped us from believing in its potential and sharing that belief with others.

I would suggest that you hook up with Obie1 sometime and observe his play for yourself over the course of a several days and many sessions just to see if his strategy works at the percentage rate he claims, but I feel confident you feel you have better uses for your time. Hell, I'd rather spend time with my family than hanging out in the casino myself.

In any case, I think you and others have made your position on Obie1's claims abundantly clear. To continue down this path - beating this horse - is also unseemly IMHO.

Again, how about we give it a rest?