Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Heavy wrote:One of the keys to increasing your winnings is to have your bets "off" when the ugly number rolls. Many do not believe in "indicators." I do, to a degree. Whether they work or not - you can't lose your money if your bets are off...

I am still on the fence regarding that perspective (indicators). I have always, for the most part, have the thought of powering through so-called indicators. A recent trip to Vegas this past month (April 2015) exposed me to Heavy's viewpoint on indicators, although the indicators might be different. I was at Bellagio and enjoying a good session. The table had decent rolls from four consecutive shooters including yours truly. Usually I see the table take a turn for the worse after a good or monster hand. Not this time.

Anyway, I was at SL1. A guy next to me was at SL2 and explaining the game to his buddy who had no skin in the game. He was talking about how he calls his bets off when certain things happen at the table. I smirked (scoffing internally) about the idea. Most of the time it is confirmation bias that reinforces this point of view. The table was in the midst of a good roll. Guy at SL2 was betting heavier than I. I was conservative on other shooters with a minimum PL bet with 2x odds, placing two numbers after the first roll that followed the point being established. I build my place bets up and out.

During this particular roll, the guy shooting was SO on the right side of the table and he was doing great. I had all the numbers covered, my six and eight were at $60, my ten was at $50, the others were sitting at $25. Guy at SL2 had black on three or four numbers, $25 PL w/ 4x odds. Shooter tosses the bones and one lurches into the great beyond. "Same Dice, Same Dice", the shooter yells. Guy at SL2 immediately calls his bets off and explains to his buddy why he was calling his bets off. I scoff (internally), "doesn't mean shite." Next roll is a seven. SL2 takes down $400 plus and adds it to his rack while I watch my $200 or so get scooped up by the dealer. I make a mental note of the incident.

A different shooter has the dice, SL2 and myself have money on the table in similar fashion as before. Different shooter is tossing a nice hand for a good fifteen or twenty minutes. Stick change comes in and SL2 calls his bets off, again explaining to his buddy why. I am thinking to myself, "No way. This shooter will get through it." Sure enough, next roll is the devil. SL2 takes down and adds to his rack almost $600 and I see my money get scooped up by the dealer. Unbelievable.

I made money on these rolls regardless, but I could have taken more $$ home. What would have been the harm in calling my bets off at the same time as SL2? I lose a payout for that one roll? I get my money back? Oh well, live and learn. And PAY.

For decades I have been in the never turn your bets off camp because hunches are not a valid betting method.

The reason I have changed my mind and now will turn off bets if I'm not shooting myself is this. If you are betting on random shooters the "correct math" is to bet 0. Any excuse to not bet on a randie is lowering your house edge exposure even if it's for one roll. When it happens to be the correct play and you have pressed bets on the table it's the same as guessing "bets off" correctly several times when none of your bets are pressed. When you're wrong you only lose one payout. When you're right you save several bets.

I still don't consider dice off the table a reason to turn off bets. If there are habitual off the table offenders, I move to a different table if I can. I feel the more often the dice leave the table the more opportunities for them to pick up imperfections that lead to randomness even in the hands of a DI.

I say it's still just confirmation bias. I guarantee you that guy called his bets off a lot of times that he missed a payment or a push on a craps number. He looks at those as "no harm". Yes, that's true. You can't lose if your bets are off. But you also can't win with bets off. So I guess I'm in Irish's camp on this one. Pick ANY reason to turn your bets off - like every 15 minutes on the hour, or every time a dealer sneezes - and all of those times you are off you won't lose. It's no different from a 1 count or 5 count. Or not betting on blond shooters. The net result is that it will stretch out your game and your bankroll because you will lose less. You won't win more but you will lose less and that allows you to stay in the game longer. About the only trigger I use any more is three non-paying rolls in a row at the beginning of a hand. If I don't win any bets in three rolls I'm out of sync with the dice. Save it for the next hand.

When you are the shooter: For grins , should a die go off table,replace just one die
....and again ,
just for grins,also occasionally replace just one die when a HORN # shows...

It is as sensible as closing one eye and standing on one foot while tossing...
...Continue with a strong roll and some other shooter(s) may follow...

just me saying

W C

freak wrote:I say it's still just confirmation bias. I guarantee you that guy called his bets off a lot of times that he missed a payment or a push on a craps number. He looks at those as "no harm". Yes, that's true. You can't lose if your bets are off. But you also can't win with bets off. So I guess I'm in Irish's camp on this one.

I agree that it is confirmation bias. Like most things that happen at a craps table, you just have to roll your eyes and say "unbelievable!". For some people, I think indicators have a place in their betting strategy if only for peace of mind, and like Freak said, "You can't lose if your bets are off." Hopefully these bettors are right more times than they are wrong. I have yet to incorporate a "bets off" indicator strategy and I remain on the fence about it. I do like mssthis1's point of using "bets off" on randies under certain circumstances.

I never turn bets off if I'm shooting. For some odd reason distractions help me because they force me to focus and I'm less likely to get lax.

If you bet on Randies like I do, it's just a way to reduce your exposure. Setting out for 1 roll now and then is a lot less boring than setting out for 40 minutes waiting for the dice to cycle back to you. When I'm at home I can't be a nomad and move to another table like I can in Vegas, Laughlin, Tunica etc. It's an hour drive to move to another table.