Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Hey Irish: You current number of posts is 666 Don't pizz off any black cats today. LOL.

Mss: I do not believe the counter is working correctly as mine is frozen on 846 - for a long time. Notice Irish last two post are #667 (thank goodness it is not frozen on ***. Heavy, this is not disparaging the site in any form. I have been here so long, I simply do not care now what my post # reads. Cannot believe I never got a gold star.
I'll try harder.

There is a "re-sync" posts button in the admin panel I could push, but after the last adventure I had back there I'm afraid to touch anything.

Six Shooter - I doubt our paths will ever cross, but if they did, then I don't think we would be at the table long enough to have enough decisions to start to smooth out the short term variance of any approach.

"The Strategy" could blow my approach away over any short session, equally a simple passline/DP with odds could blow the strategy away over any short period. Neither would prove which is better in the long term. We'd need to define what a realistic long term would be which would take us beyond the realm of real-life play and into computer simulations.

I suspect "The Strategy" is not able to run in simulation mode.

kingofdice wrote:my Question is why a million rounds compared to a Billion ? I know Blackjack is different. But in the Blackjack World anything under 200 million is insignificant. 400 million to a billion plus has meaning.... Whats the difference here ?

What's the value of a billion rolls simulation? Or even a million? Over the course of a year I may average 2 hours a week of live play with money on the line. Even if I had the dice 50% of the time in my own hands that is only 7500 or so tosses a year. My entire lifetime of craps will be inside the "nothing more than variance" parameters using your huge simulations.

heavy wrote:There is a "re-sync" posts button in the admin panel I could push, but after the last adventure I had back there I'm afraid to touch anything.

Don't get all superstitious on me, I was only joking around with Irish. Some of the Voodoo dice believers would probably like it if you had your IT person rewrite the counter program so the counter never had any 7's in it though.

Some of the Voodoo dice believers would probably like it if you had your IT person rewrite the counter program so the counter never had any 7's in it though.

I fully expect the biased dice crowd to come up with some goofy claim that the broken counter on the site is proof that dice are biased. I mean, hey. It's as logical as anything else they come up with.

Now, back on Lou's Strategy. Most of you guys know that I sat in on a class with Lou and Six Shooter. I liked what I saw well enough that I offer it for sale in the "Buy Heavy's Stuff" section of the forum. In fact, MANY elements of Lou's play mirror my own. I won't go into which ones, but I will tell you that before I ever met Lou and Six Shooter one of their students told me that "you already have most of it - you've just never written it all down into system form." Okay, I'm good with that.

There's another system sold out there that we talk about obliquely from time to time - the Method. I don't own the Method but I've seen the entire system. As a courtesy to Mr. Nelli I won't go into any details. However, I will say that it is not surprising to me that many elements of the Method, like many elements of the Strategy, mirror my own play. Do you see a trend here? If not, you should. But more on that in a minute.

There's a third system sold out there that I offer for sale on the forum and in the newsletters each monthy. It's Dice Trkkr's Beat the Odds system. Dice Trkkr's real name is Marvin Goldstein. He's a retired craps dealer I've exchanged e-mails with for years - comparing thoughts on play, etc. I remember getting e-mails from Marvin after sending out some of my strategies via newsletter where he'd say "Steve, you almost got it right in that one." LOL. He and I agree on about 80% of our approaches to the game, so it's no surprise that many elements of Marvin's Beat the Odds system mirror my own.

I've collected systems for years and have a stack of system manuals several feet tall - all with elaborate schemes for qualifying shooters, tracking rolls, determining entry points, exit points, etc. In virtually every case - significant portions of the systems mirror my own play. Now, I've repeated that four times. Why do you think that is?

Let's switch gears for a minute and look at fields other than craps for a couple of examples. If you are a farmer in my part of the world you know that there are certain crops you can plant after Good Friday (asparagus, snap peas) and certain crops you don't plant until after Easter (beans, corn). If you are a hunter you know to approach the game trails from down wind and allow for windage when shooting. If you bet the puppies you probably watch for the big dog that takes a dump on the way to the gate and bet on him. All of the above are things that are drawn from the field of common knowledge. Farm long enough and you learn that if you plant your beans too early a late frost will kill them. Hunt from up wind and you'll go home with nothing but ticks. And we all know that that dog is taking a dump to lighten his load before he runs. And often a big dog will knock half the field down in the first turn and go on to win.

Craps is the same way. There's a field of common knowledge that you eventually learn to draw on. Some people scoff at the "superstitious" craps players who turn their bets off at certain trigger events - those things you've heard me refer to as Energy Draining Events. They talk about "confirmation bias" and the fact that players basically see what they expect to see and ignore any other results. Nevertheless, I can cite example after example where turning my bets off because a player was breaking the rhythm of the game by arguing over a payout, the game stopped to pay out an ATS hit, the cocktail server tapped the shooter, the shooter's girlfriend/wife/significant other interrupted him and asked for another $100 for the slots, the dice fly off the table, a stick change mid-hand, etc., saved me a ton of money.

Charting is the other tool in the common knowledge base. I've been at the table where eight different people were charting. In some cases there'd be three or four Strategy players, a couple of Method players, a Beat the Odds player and someone who's playing their own system. They're all writing down the same numbers and they're all betting differently. Seriously. Two Strategy players sitting side by side and betting differently. Hey, we're all playing our own game and we all take our own approaches. But if you're playing ANY system correctly there should not be that much variance in play IMHO. If Joe observes the four and ten are hot and bets them both - and his buddy Bob is playing the same system - I'd expect to see Bob bet the four and ten as well - not bet the nine. Crazy. But my point is - charting is common to the game, even if you do all of your tracking with chips, match sticks, quarters, or in your head. Honestly, the advent of the ATS layout makes charting much simpler for guys like me who like to chat up other players at the table and may, on occasion, lose track of what's rolled. What I will tell you is that charting is part of all three of the systems mentioned above. Unfortunately, most people who chart hands don't know what to look for when analyzing the numbers. And all of the above system teach a slightly different approach to charting. I'd just say find a charting approach that works for you and wear it out.

My big push-back on charting is the reaction you get from the house when you have several people at the table tracking rolls at the same time. Often you get so much push-back from the house that it's just not worth the effort.

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, the website earns a small commission from the sale of Lou's Strategy and Dice Trkkr's Beat the Odds systems. Emphasis on small. That's one of the ways we pay the bills around here. I turn down a LOT of advertising on my websites. In fact, at this point these are the only two outfits that I accept ads from. I would not accept the ads if I did not think their products have value.

Some will say that most of the material these folks teach is available on-line from various forums or in books you can check out of the library and read for free. I agree. That's no unlike learning dice influencing. Everything you need to know to learn how to influence the dice is available on line for free. All you have to do is sort through the bullshit to find the correct information and master it. Or you could sign on for a seminar and learn it direct from someone who who's been doing it for years and has a proven track record of success. It's your call.

That variance in the Easter date must play havoc with the farmer's crops some years

One thing I am learning though is consistency. Whatever the approach, strategy, system, call it what you will - apply it consistently. Stick with the plan for so many goes e.g 10 shooters and with loss limits and win goals you shouldn't do too much damage on average.

Also keep it simple. Had to smile at the comment above where two people apparently playing the same system where betting different numbers.

Had to smile at the comment above where two people apparently playing the same system where betting different numbers.

I'd name them but they're regulars here on the forum and at the seminars. They're just reading the table differently and adapting it to their own style of play. It is what it is.

Can you divulge the bankroll recommendations for an average EV of $150.00 per hour?

"Lou is a math genius"- I think that might be an over statement. I don't remember exactly what Lou does for a living, I believe it has something to do with fishing, but I know he ain't working on Chaos Theory or String Theory!

My sons professor who worked at IBM for 30 years, retired, and now teaching at Princton in the summer for the Gifted, now he's a genius! He doesn't play Craps, he's too busy working on the Chaos and String! Lol

Hey six shooter, I am interested in the strategy and wondering when lou and the gang will be making a trip to Vegas.

If you are in Tunica or KC sometime I would like to observe you guys in action.

TIA.

Aww, Irish, I miss wolfie and his banter.

He did bring an interesting perspective to life in general.

All BS aside, KOD, I would be interested in hearing about your spin in the Strategy and how it's working for you in live play. Session reports are always appreciated.

KOD, so what you are saying is that you need a big bank roll to make $$ with the strategy? I'm just saying that cause you said it's not for the faint of heart... Also is it a wait till the indicator shows up to make a bet or you can have action on almost every roll...and if it is a waiting game, about how long is the average wait time before an indicator shows up? I know that patience plays a big part in craps but you know that it's hard with craps since you want action all the time... Thanks in advanced...

Thanks fish, ummm high HE? What is that... I'm new to the lingo... Btw did you purchase the strategy?

I am not sure why this thread was started and by now readers should be confused on what to do.Let me offer a frame for decision making.If one is a casual player dont worry about all this;go out there and have fun. For the serious players [one who plays more than 30 days a year] its another matter.If one does not a good set of tools and understands how to implemant those tools the casino is going to clean you out.To have a chance one needs to learn how to shoot and one needs a good betting strategy to reduce the house edge and take advantage of short term trends.Whether one chooses Heavy's strategy or Nelli or Lou's is an individual decision and all have value.Another factor one has to consider is are you willing to practice a lot? If the answer is maybe then my advice is forget all this and go have fun.If you fall in the 1% group of players who has learnt how to throw,have a good betting strategy and are willing to work at it then do contact me;I would love to play with you.

Well, okay. Since KOD is concerned about going too far with his explanations and violating his non-disclosure agreement with Lou (and I appreciate that) and this thread really has no where else to go, I think we'll just call this one done and move on. Thanks for your contributions, gents.