Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Sorry to burst your bubble but almost any strategy that has a low house edge is likely going to have similar or better results than yours given the parameters you’ve outlined.

An SRR of 6.5 gives a one PL max 10x odds shooter about a 2.7% edge over the house. A well-funded player would be printing money. At SRRs of 7.5 or 9.5, there would be no reason to ever stop playing. His bankroll would grow exponentially.

IMO, the standard benchmark for craps testing is SRR 6.0, one DP or PL bet, max odds. That’s the gold standard. Run your strategy against the DP and also the PL for the 720,000 rolls at SRR of 6.0 and see how close you get to either of those.

I'll drone on a bit more about those strategies I mentioned above. Last night, just to see how all three of those strategies in that one play book worked out for two hours of "live" play, we ran a 72 roll simulation on each one, the Beginner, Intermediate, and Advanced Strategies. We ran the Beginner Strategy assuming an overall SRR of 6.5. We assumed this was a newish DI who had a better than random SRR and enough sense to only bet on other DI's. The Intermediate Strategy was run on an assumed overall SRR of 7.5. We assumed this was an average to slightly above average shooter who was skilled at money management and had fairly good discipline, and was also adept at reading the table and betting on the right shooters most of the time. Then we had the Advanced Player with an SRR of 9.5. An older, mature player with many years in the game. He played with a larger bankroll and was more aggressive when the table was hot but was better at reading the table than the Beginner or Intermediate player and always had his bets Off or Down at the right time. He had higher loss limits than the other players, but his ability to have more bets working and pressing them more aggressively with controlled limits based on the math of the game let him recoup any losses quickly and end his session well ahead of other players. Now here's the interesting part. After two hours of play all three of these players ended up winning what I consider pretty dang well. Our beginner won a total of $1395. That's over $600 an hour with this strategy with an SRR of 6.5. Our Intermediate player, with a different set of rolls that generated an SRR of 7.5 earned out at $3192. That's almost $1600 an hour. And our Advanced player, who was able to put his pedal to the metal and go for it with an SRR of 9.5, ran his winnings up to $5708. That's almost $2900 an hour working off a $2500 bankroll in a $25 game. And all it took was a set-in-stone loss limit, win goals, a positive EV, and a strategy that minimized downsize risk while setting you up to win when the math of the game says you should.

Now, obviously we set this up expecting certain things. I expected the Beginner to come close to breaking even or maybe have a very small win. I was stunned when he came out ahead over $600 an hour. The Intermediate player did everything I expected, except he won about double what I expected. And the same goes for the Advanced player. I expected him to come in with a win in the $2500 - $3000 range. Stretching it to over $5700 was a shocker. All of these players had to overcome a house edge of 1.36 on the DP, 1.41 on the Pass, and 1.51 on the Six and Eight. Not to mention 5% on Lay Bets. Over the length of the sessions, the average HE they were up against probably exceeded 2%. But they still pulled it out. The strategy worked even better than expected.

Tonight I should get this thing pretty close to finished. I have a few more supporting tables and graphs to add. Back-of-the-book stuff that supports the somewhat abbreviated content in the front of the book. All in all, though, there's a lot of stuff in a relatively small package. I'm very excited about it.

At those SRR levels, the shooters are doing most/all of the heavy lifting (no pun intended), not necessarily the strategy.

*shrugs*