"Well, I'm back." ~Sam Gamgee.
At least for alittle while. So last time I was fairly active, around 2006 or so, regression strategies were all the rage. What's the latest thing?
What happened to regression strategies?
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
Well, I thought for SURE someone would jump in and post here, Mksmash, but it looks like everyone is sleeping through their Sunday.
I believe regressions strategies are still among the favorite methods of play by most of the forum members. With that said, there have been some interesting one-offs. For example, I've had a fair amount of success betting across, regressing the inside numbers, but power pressing the four and ten. This is akin to "The Craps Lesson" strategy widely touted on the Internet a few years back. I also incorporate elements of Steve Nelli's "Method" of betting. Let me qualify that by saying that I do not own a copy of the Method - but players who do own it have said things like "if you watch Heavy play and do what he tells you then you already have 80% of the Method. The Method uses certain triggers as keys to place bets or take down bets. It is largely superstition based IMHO, but then again, my experience tells me that those superstitions are grounded in reality in most cases.
We've had all sorts of Don't discussions recently, but I think we often come back to Dave's System, which I think was being bandied about back when you were a forum regular. I guess Isgood is the resident expert on Dave's system - perhaps followed by Golfer and $5 Bill.
Glad to see you came out of retirement and posted again. Looking forward to seeing you at the tables again. How about Biloxi in the Spring?
h
I believe regressions strategies are still among the favorite methods of play by most of the forum members. With that said, there have been some interesting one-offs. For example, I've had a fair amount of success betting across, regressing the inside numbers, but power pressing the four and ten. This is akin to "The Craps Lesson" strategy widely touted on the Internet a few years back. I also incorporate elements of Steve Nelli's "Method" of betting. Let me qualify that by saying that I do not own a copy of the Method - but players who do own it have said things like "if you watch Heavy play and do what he tells you then you already have 80% of the Method. The Method uses certain triggers as keys to place bets or take down bets. It is largely superstition based IMHO, but then again, my experience tells me that those superstitions are grounded in reality in most cases.
We've had all sorts of Don't discussions recently, but I think we often come back to Dave's System, which I think was being bandied about back when you were a forum regular. I guess Isgood is the resident expert on Dave's system - perhaps followed by Golfer and $5 Bill.
Glad to see you came out of retirement and posted again. Looking forward to seeing you at the tables again. How about Biloxi in the Spring?
h
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
I still contend that no betting method can change the math of the game, except for individual sessions.
Noah
Noah
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
Little Joe wrote:acpa wrote:I still contend that no betting method can change the math of the game, except for individual sessions.
Noah
As the "Dice Doctor", Sam Grafstein said:
"There never has been..There isn't now..There never will be..a system that can over come the house edge against the crapshooter."
LOL that's one of those things that everyone says they know/understand/believe/agree with but about 90% of all craps players "forget." And they seem to forget it more than once.
-DC
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CrapsForever
- Posts: 135
- Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:33 pm
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
Played Craps for about 18 hours over the past weekend. Watching different players doing all sorts of different strategies...my favorite was player who would wait for a "trigger" to bet $90 "5", $90 "6" 90 "Field" for exactly one roll. After roll he would bring down all bets and wait for another "trigger" to bet. Sometimes he would wait 20 minutes between bets; I can't go 2 minutes without betting.
Impeccable discipline and timing by player!
Side Note: It's absolutely incredulous the ongoing trend going on for YEARS where the first roll after the Point is established could be the biggest factor of the upcoming hand. Obviously PSO is the worst but a Horn thrown on the Comeout roll AFTER the Point is established usually precedes 7-out. Dealers get annoyed but a Horn thrown on the Comeout roll After the Point is established leads me to call my bets "OFF"!
I am also noticing that when the Point established is 4 or 10; it usually leads to a very short hand. Either the player hits the 4/10....usually HARDWAY or they 7-out within 2-3 rolls of establishing the Point. I just don't notice long hands when the Point is 4 or 10. Could it be the mental hurdle of a player stressing the "hardest" points to make leading to short hands??? I no longer bet across when the Point is 4 or 10; I'll bet solely on the 4 and 10 with Hardway bets on the 4/10 or no bets at all; ZERO bets on inside #'s.
Regression strategy that I've started using with good results is Place Bets across AFTER a box # is thrown...preferably a non-Hardway..."Hard 10" followed by 7-out happens way too often...
Back to my regression strategy.....Any Place number that hits other than 6 or 8; down on that number. Use additional hits on 6 or 8 to put back the Place number you took down. Once a Horn # is thrown; Place bets "OFF" for a couple of rolls. Two consecutive Horns thrown; I take DOWN all my Place Bets and might throw a few dollars to "hop 7's".
Food for thought...
Impeccable discipline and timing by player!
Side Note: It's absolutely incredulous the ongoing trend going on for YEARS where the first roll after the Point is established could be the biggest factor of the upcoming hand. Obviously PSO is the worst but a Horn thrown on the Comeout roll AFTER the Point is established usually precedes 7-out. Dealers get annoyed but a Horn thrown on the Comeout roll After the Point is established leads me to call my bets "OFF"!
I am also noticing that when the Point established is 4 or 10; it usually leads to a very short hand. Either the player hits the 4/10....usually HARDWAY or they 7-out within 2-3 rolls of establishing the Point. I just don't notice long hands when the Point is 4 or 10. Could it be the mental hurdle of a player stressing the "hardest" points to make leading to short hands??? I no longer bet across when the Point is 4 or 10; I'll bet solely on the 4 and 10 with Hardway bets on the 4/10 or no bets at all; ZERO bets on inside #'s.
Regression strategy that I've started using with good results is Place Bets across AFTER a box # is thrown...preferably a non-Hardway..."Hard 10" followed by 7-out happens way too often...
Back to my regression strategy.....Any Place number that hits other than 6 or 8; down on that number. Use additional hits on 6 or 8 to put back the Place number you took down. Once a Horn # is thrown; Place bets "OFF" for a couple of rolls. Two consecutive Horns thrown; I take DOWN all my Place Bets and might throw a few dollars to "hop 7's".
Food for thought...
"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist." - Baudelaire
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
If you want to talk strategies, the only factor that matters in my opinion is edge per roll.
Without considering the free odds bet, the lowest edge per roll on the table is the 4 and the 10 when commission is $1 on the win for a $25 bet.
Edge per roll for an average of 4 rolls on the 4 or the 10 is 1.33% (1/75) divided by 4 rolls is .33% per roll.
For a $100 buy, the edge is .41%, 1.67% (5/300) divided by 4 rolls, but still a very respectable edge per roll
The second lowest edge per roll is the don't pass or DC at .40% per roll
The third lowest edge per roll is the pass line or come bet at .42% per roll
The fourth lowest edge per roll is the place bet on the 6 or the 8 at .46%
After that, the edge per roll goes up to to 1.00 (unless you look at commision on the win for laying a number or placing to lose - which is not that common here in vegas anyway).
Adding in free odds bets or lay odds bets once you have travelled come or dc bets is sort of a "no brainer" in terms of absolutely a great idea.
Absolutely any strategy that uses edges with 1.00% or higher per roll, you are making it twice as hard to overcome the edge with anything you can do with the dice. And for random data, you're just simply losing TWICE AS FAST OR FASTER for anything besides these four bets.
I think that any debate about betting strategies only makes sense to consider how to combine these four bets. Anything else (EG: I roll more 5's, so I have to bet the 5's) I would suggest that is a problem with the roll, not with the bet.
Regressing versus non-regressing has more to do with your tolerance for volatility than it has to do with you statistical ability to win money. If you're willing to risk that much up front, and you have an edge to tolerate it for a brief moment, you will make more money tolerating it on every roll.
This is all from the point of view that you are grinding your own edge and not gambling.
If you're gambling, and/or making fewer bets (which is by definition gambling) the edge barely even matters anyway. Get in, get lucky, get out.
Just my opinion on strategies.
Without considering the free odds bet, the lowest edge per roll on the table is the 4 and the 10 when commission is $1 on the win for a $25 bet.
Edge per roll for an average of 4 rolls on the 4 or the 10 is 1.33% (1/75) divided by 4 rolls is .33% per roll.
For a $100 buy, the edge is .41%, 1.67% (5/300) divided by 4 rolls, but still a very respectable edge per roll
The second lowest edge per roll is the don't pass or DC at .40% per roll
The third lowest edge per roll is the pass line or come bet at .42% per roll
The fourth lowest edge per roll is the place bet on the 6 or the 8 at .46%
After that, the edge per roll goes up to to 1.00 (unless you look at commision on the win for laying a number or placing to lose - which is not that common here in vegas anyway).
Adding in free odds bets or lay odds bets once you have travelled come or dc bets is sort of a "no brainer" in terms of absolutely a great idea.
Absolutely any strategy that uses edges with 1.00% or higher per roll, you are making it twice as hard to overcome the edge with anything you can do with the dice. And for random data, you're just simply losing TWICE AS FAST OR FASTER for anything besides these four bets.
I think that any debate about betting strategies only makes sense to consider how to combine these four bets. Anything else (EG: I roll more 5's, so I have to bet the 5's) I would suggest that is a problem with the roll, not with the bet.
Regressing versus non-regressing has more to do with your tolerance for volatility than it has to do with you statistical ability to win money. If you're willing to risk that much up front, and you have an edge to tolerate it for a brief moment, you will make more money tolerating it on every roll.
This is all from the point of view that you are grinding your own edge and not gambling.
If you're gambling, and/or making fewer bets (which is by definition gambling) the edge barely even matters anyway. Get in, get lucky, get out.
Just my opinion on strategies.
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wild child
- Posts: 1522
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:29 pm
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
.
C F
Interesting post.........
The player who wagered $90 on the FIVE
'"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""$90 on the SIX
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>$90 on the Field
Has an exposure of $180 with zero coverage on the EIGHT and a 17% chance of LOSS to the SEVEN
$90 wagered on the FIVE net pay $36....9 X $14 = $126 minus $90 on Field = $36
$90 wagered on the SIX net pay $15....90/6=15 x $7 = $105 minus $90 on Field = $15
$90 wagered in the Field pays $90...$90 except $180 on #2 and either $180 or $270 on # TWELVE
==============
By not covering the # EIGHT,you are giving up on that # returning anything
If a player intends to wager the IRON CROSS,the player had best consider
THE ENTIRE $$$ AMOUNT A SINGLE WAGER.
There is a CONSTANT of 17% favoring LOSS TO THE SEVEN
My choice would be for a uniform $ RETURN at some number higher than the potential return on the FIVE & SIX
For those desiring to make an IRON CROSS Wager thus harvesting THE SPREAD , there seem more profitable options in placing the IRON CROSS wager
There are people holding to the concept that THE POINT is rarely THROWN after the COME OUT and even smaller incidence of it being REPEATED in under THREE tosses of the dice...There is NO SCIENCE behind this concept. It is empirical ( feelings ,just feelings)at best ..........
In such case ,THE POINT or PASS LINE NUMBER may not be wagered as the GAMBLER/GAMER intends to expose his $$$ for ONE or TWO ROLLS per shooter and retire from battle after say 3-5 shooters
Such GAMERS may retire for THE DAY or in a CASINO DAY may return to do battle perhaps one or two more times and call it A CASINO DAY
For people like that mind set a CASINO DAY may be less than THREE HOURS(CASINO DAY) at the tables in 24 hour calendar day
A number of these old hands skip entirely the first roll after the COME OUT ROLL and only wager sparingly following or avoiding opportunity of loss by entering or standing out guided by CERTAIN and SPECIFIC "TELLS" or " INDICATORS"
The difference is what makes machine gunners and snipers fight the same war using different tactics...
W C
C F
Interesting post.........
The player who wagered $90 on the FIVE
'"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""$90 on the SIX
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>$90 on the Field
Has an exposure of $180 with zero coverage on the EIGHT and a 17% chance of LOSS to the SEVEN
$90 wagered on the FIVE net pay $36....9 X $14 = $126 minus $90 on Field = $36
$90 wagered on the SIX net pay $15....90/6=15 x $7 = $105 minus $90 on Field = $15
$90 wagered in the Field pays $90...$90 except $180 on #2 and either $180 or $270 on # TWELVE
==============
By not covering the # EIGHT,you are giving up on that # returning anything
If a player intends to wager the IRON CROSS,the player had best consider
THE ENTIRE $$$ AMOUNT A SINGLE WAGER.
There is a CONSTANT of 17% favoring LOSS TO THE SEVEN
My choice would be for a uniform $ RETURN at some number higher than the potential return on the FIVE & SIX
For those desiring to make an IRON CROSS Wager thus harvesting THE SPREAD , there seem more profitable options in placing the IRON CROSS wager
There are people holding to the concept that THE POINT is rarely THROWN after the COME OUT and even smaller incidence of it being REPEATED in under THREE tosses of the dice...There is NO SCIENCE behind this concept. It is empirical ( feelings ,just feelings)at best ..........
In such case ,THE POINT or PASS LINE NUMBER may not be wagered as the GAMBLER/GAMER intends to expose his $$$ for ONE or TWO ROLLS per shooter and retire from battle after say 3-5 shooters
Such GAMERS may retire for THE DAY or in a CASINO DAY may return to do battle perhaps one or two more times and call it A CASINO DAY
For people like that mind set a CASINO DAY may be less than THREE HOURS(CASINO DAY) at the tables in 24 hour calendar day
A number of these old hands skip entirely the first roll after the COME OUT ROLL and only wager sparingly following or avoiding opportunity of loss by entering or standing out guided by CERTAIN and SPECIFIC "TELLS" or " INDICATORS"
The difference is what makes machine gunners and snipers fight the same war using different tactics...
W C
Last edited by wild child on Sun Sep 23, 2012 11:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CrapsForever
- Posts: 135
- Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:33 pm
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
WC,
I respect your opinion. Regarding the player who bet 5,6 and Field... He usually made this bet when the Point was 8. Occasionally, he would bet 6,8 and Field or 5,8 and Field however his main Bread and Butter was the 5,6 and Field.
He got most of his profit on the Field. 12 pays triple at this Casino and he was very lucky to get paid on a lot of 2's and 12's. I do agree with you that I would not do an Iron Cross without all the number covered (5,6 & 8) but for some reason; his "system" is to never have the (5,6,8) covered, he always left one of those numbers uncovered. I was SHOCKED that on the monster roll of the night, he only made ONE bet in about a 30 minute roll. Sadly he lost that bet when she threw an 8..he had bet $90 5, $90 6 and $90 Field. $270 loss on a monster 30 minute roll with over 12 Hard 8's thrown is unacceptable in my book.
On another note..when they changed the Dice after a relative hot session; he STRONGLY advised us to leave or only play the Don'ts. He left the Casino, I didn't take immediate heed because I had some more time to play and gave back about $200 before leaving. My craps buddy stayed and lost a LOT!
Regarding trend betting; I personally know that a majority of the 7-outs that I experience are on the Comeout roll after the Point is established. I foolishly had my bets working a lot on the comeout roll this past weekend before an old-timer at the table recommended that I turn my bets off on the entire roll and start calculating how much I'm winning or losing on that first roll.
For me historically (Over a decade of playing Craps); it's staggering the amount of money I'm losing by having my bets working on that first roll after the Point is established. My Craps buddy's new strategy is to wait for a player to make a Point before making a Pass Line Bet with Full Odds. He got DESTROYED on a relatively hot table by the amount of PSO's on this trip. I felt really bad for him; he's very hard-headed. On my rolls; he knows to always have his bets "OFF" on that first roll after the Point is established. We have been playing CRAPS together for over a decade (We started at the same time on the same table and usually are quite successful when we "team" up) so he completely knows my tendencies which manifest themselves in almost EVERY single Craps session we play together. He knows to not work his bets on my Comeout roll after the Point is established, he knows to hop the 7's after I throw consecutive Horns, he knows to bet Horn High Ace/Deuce and keep pressing on my Comeout roll before the Point is established...
My Craps partner's issue is not adjusting to other people's tendencies and trends in the present. He was KILLING the Hardways on this trip and I made a lot of money betting on his roll but he was not betting them on his roll; it was really confusing that he did not notice his own trend. I took care of him by giving him a percentage of my Hardway hits on his roll but his stubbornness ended up costing him a lot of $$$. Regular players told us who NOT to bet on or bet cautiously with; I listened and followed suit, my Craps buddy did not heed their advice and paid for it with his wallet.
When I am playing Craps the best way (for me) of having great success when others are shooting is the following; Do NOT play the Pass Line, I have my Place #'s OFF on the first roll after the Point is established; I "hop" the Point for a few dollars and may have a little Horn Action on that first roll. When I am stubborn and lose my Pass Line/Odds and all my Place Bets money on a PSO; I almost always get super-frustrated, go FULL TILT and lose a LOT of money in a very short period.
I consider the first roll AFTER the Point to be established to be the most significant roll on most hands. Start tracking it and see if you notice a pattern.
Personally, almost all of my 7-outs are on the Comeout roll or after throwing 2 consecutive Horns; this past weekend...almost ALL of my 7-outs were after the Comeout roll (PSO) or after throwing ONE Horn. I had a stream of 6 consecutive times that I 7'ed out either on the Comeout roll or after a Horn. It got so frustrating that I "passed" the Dice to the next shooter for the next 5 opportunities. I definitely had a very underwhelming weekend shooting the Dice.
I am very huge on Trend betting and my personal throwing is very consistent. On my Comeout rolls this weekend, I kept on throwing Ace/Deuce on the Comeout Roll...I always had a bet on the Horn-High Ace Deuce....the Ace-Deuce Bet and repeated hits were not a mere "coincidence", it was done by design. I was astonished when players kept on losing their Pass Line Bets and not betting the Crap check even though I threw the Ace Deuce 3 consecutive times on 2 occasions and threw it 4 times in a row in one occasion...I need to learn and utilize the word "PARLAY". The Ace/Deuce has historically been the most dominant number in one of my Dice Sets on the Comeout roll which is very 7-friendly so I always bet it.
I played at Dover Downs earlier this year and threw the Ace/Deuce 4 consecutive times....I only had a $2 Crap Check ($10 table)...it was one of the dumbest moves of my Craps career...why use a Horn Set and not bet the Horn???
On another note regarding trend betting; I played with a lady this weekend who "always" had at least $10 - $15 on the Hard 8 her entire roll even on the comeout roll before the Point was established. She had a "MONSTER" Roll; and hit the Hard 8 at least 12 times on her roll. She is a "rhythm" shooter and based on how she bets; it's obvious she pays attention to what she rolls.
Another shooter told me "Bet the Hard 6 & Hard 8" on my roll. His first roll...he establishes the 8 and hops the all the 8's for $5 each and bets the regular (All Day) Hard 8 for $25; first roll HARD 8...right back...Buckshot!
I immediately took notice...he ended up costing me a lot of money...yeah he hit a lot of Hard 6's and Hard 8's with him making $50 Hardway Bets on them but almost all his hands were very short..feast or famine. In hindsight; I should have never made any Place Bets/Pass Line/Odds....if I would have simply bet $5,$10 or $15 on the Hard 6 and 8 on every one of his rolls; I would have made a lot of money on his roll.
Lesson Learned: You don't have to make a Place Bet to "protect" a Hardway. I kept on betting $5 - $10 on the Hard 6&8 on his rolls and making $44 inside or $64 across bets. The Place Bets KILLED me with several of his PSO's. If I just stuck with solely the Hardway Bets on his roll...I would have done much better. On his last roll...he hit the Hard 6, Hard 8, Hard 4, Hard 10, Hard 6...7-out.
I usually do the "Ring around the Rosy" with the Hardways; Pressing up all the Hardways for a few $$$ as opposed to simply parlaying or only pressing the Hardway that hit seeking a repeater. I played this the wrong way.. I took the first payout on the Hard 6, full parlayed the Hard 8, 4, 10, the next 6 and then 7-out. Left a lot of money on the Hardway section of the table without getting appropriately paid. I should have stuck with my style of taking a little profit and pressing up each Hardway.
Ironically he made more money on my rolls; I hit the Hard 6 and Hard 8 on several occasions for him when he had $50 on each hardway..for a $450 payout. He kept on pressing the Hardway bet to $100 but I never hit the Hardway repeater.
Get your Craps on.....
I respect your opinion. Regarding the player who bet 5,6 and Field... He usually made this bet when the Point was 8. Occasionally, he would bet 6,8 and Field or 5,8 and Field however his main Bread and Butter was the 5,6 and Field.
He got most of his profit on the Field. 12 pays triple at this Casino and he was very lucky to get paid on a lot of 2's and 12's. I do agree with you that I would not do an Iron Cross without all the number covered (5,6 & 8) but for some reason; his "system" is to never have the (5,6,8) covered, he always left one of those numbers uncovered. I was SHOCKED that on the monster roll of the night, he only made ONE bet in about a 30 minute roll. Sadly he lost that bet when she threw an 8..he had bet $90 5, $90 6 and $90 Field. $270 loss on a monster 30 minute roll with over 12 Hard 8's thrown is unacceptable in my book.
On another note..when they changed the Dice after a relative hot session; he STRONGLY advised us to leave or only play the Don'ts. He left the Casino, I didn't take immediate heed because I had some more time to play and gave back about $200 before leaving. My craps buddy stayed and lost a LOT!
Regarding trend betting; I personally know that a majority of the 7-outs that I experience are on the Comeout roll after the Point is established. I foolishly had my bets working a lot on the comeout roll this past weekend before an old-timer at the table recommended that I turn my bets off on the entire roll and start calculating how much I'm winning or losing on that first roll.
For me historically (Over a decade of playing Craps); it's staggering the amount of money I'm losing by having my bets working on that first roll after the Point is established. My Craps buddy's new strategy is to wait for a player to make a Point before making a Pass Line Bet with Full Odds. He got DESTROYED on a relatively hot table by the amount of PSO's on this trip. I felt really bad for him; he's very hard-headed. On my rolls; he knows to always have his bets "OFF" on that first roll after the Point is established. We have been playing CRAPS together for over a decade (We started at the same time on the same table and usually are quite successful when we "team" up) so he completely knows my tendencies which manifest themselves in almost EVERY single Craps session we play together. He knows to not work his bets on my Comeout roll after the Point is established, he knows to hop the 7's after I throw consecutive Horns, he knows to bet Horn High Ace/Deuce and keep pressing on my Comeout roll before the Point is established...
My Craps partner's issue is not adjusting to other people's tendencies and trends in the present. He was KILLING the Hardways on this trip and I made a lot of money betting on his roll but he was not betting them on his roll; it was really confusing that he did not notice his own trend. I took care of him by giving him a percentage of my Hardway hits on his roll but his stubbornness ended up costing him a lot of $$$. Regular players told us who NOT to bet on or bet cautiously with; I listened and followed suit, my Craps buddy did not heed their advice and paid for it with his wallet.
When I am playing Craps the best way (for me) of having great success when others are shooting is the following; Do NOT play the Pass Line, I have my Place #'s OFF on the first roll after the Point is established; I "hop" the Point for a few dollars and may have a little Horn Action on that first roll. When I am stubborn and lose my Pass Line/Odds and all my Place Bets money on a PSO; I almost always get super-frustrated, go FULL TILT and lose a LOT of money in a very short period.
I consider the first roll AFTER the Point to be established to be the most significant roll on most hands. Start tracking it and see if you notice a pattern.
Personally, almost all of my 7-outs are on the Comeout roll or after throwing 2 consecutive Horns; this past weekend...almost ALL of my 7-outs were after the Comeout roll (PSO) or after throwing ONE Horn. I had a stream of 6 consecutive times that I 7'ed out either on the Comeout roll or after a Horn. It got so frustrating that I "passed" the Dice to the next shooter for the next 5 opportunities. I definitely had a very underwhelming weekend shooting the Dice.
I am very huge on Trend betting and my personal throwing is very consistent. On my Comeout rolls this weekend, I kept on throwing Ace/Deuce on the Comeout Roll...I always had a bet on the Horn-High Ace Deuce....the Ace-Deuce Bet and repeated hits were not a mere "coincidence", it was done by design. I was astonished when players kept on losing their Pass Line Bets and not betting the Crap check even though I threw the Ace Deuce 3 consecutive times on 2 occasions and threw it 4 times in a row in one occasion...I need to learn and utilize the word "PARLAY". The Ace/Deuce has historically been the most dominant number in one of my Dice Sets on the Comeout roll which is very 7-friendly so I always bet it.
I played at Dover Downs earlier this year and threw the Ace/Deuce 4 consecutive times....I only had a $2 Crap Check ($10 table)...it was one of the dumbest moves of my Craps career...why use a Horn Set and not bet the Horn???
On another note regarding trend betting; I played with a lady this weekend who "always" had at least $10 - $15 on the Hard 8 her entire roll even on the comeout roll before the Point was established. She had a "MONSTER" Roll; and hit the Hard 8 at least 12 times on her roll. She is a "rhythm" shooter and based on how she bets; it's obvious she pays attention to what she rolls.
Another shooter told me "Bet the Hard 6 & Hard 8" on my roll. His first roll...he establishes the 8 and hops the all the 8's for $5 each and bets the regular (All Day) Hard 8 for $25; first roll HARD 8...right back...Buckshot!
I immediately took notice...he ended up costing me a lot of money...yeah he hit a lot of Hard 6's and Hard 8's with him making $50 Hardway Bets on them but almost all his hands were very short..feast or famine. In hindsight; I should have never made any Place Bets/Pass Line/Odds....if I would have simply bet $5,$10 or $15 on the Hard 6 and 8 on every one of his rolls; I would have made a lot of money on his roll.
Lesson Learned: You don't have to make a Place Bet to "protect" a Hardway. I kept on betting $5 - $10 on the Hard 6&8 on his rolls and making $44 inside or $64 across bets. The Place Bets KILLED me with several of his PSO's. If I just stuck with solely the Hardway Bets on his roll...I would have done much better. On his last roll...he hit the Hard 6, Hard 8, Hard 4, Hard 10, Hard 6...7-out.
I usually do the "Ring around the Rosy" with the Hardways; Pressing up all the Hardways for a few $$$ as opposed to simply parlaying or only pressing the Hardway that hit seeking a repeater. I played this the wrong way.. I took the first payout on the Hard 6, full parlayed the Hard 8, 4, 10, the next 6 and then 7-out. Left a lot of money on the Hardway section of the table without getting appropriately paid. I should have stuck with my style of taking a little profit and pressing up each Hardway.
Ironically he made more money on my rolls; I hit the Hard 6 and Hard 8 on several occasions for him when he had $50 on each hardway..for a $450 payout. He kept on pressing the Hardway bet to $100 but I never hit the Hardway repeater.
Get your Craps on.....
Last edited by CrapsForever on Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist." - Baudelaire
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
Yeah, well. That's pretty much what I've been saying for years. But if you add a bunch of individual sessions (winners) together then you get a long-run winning session. Perhaps I should change the catch-phrase to "any long run win is better than any long run loss." But a long run win is typically comprised of a lot of short run/individual session wins.I still contend that no betting method can change the math of the game, except for individual sessions.
Oh, and for those of you who have not figured it out yet, it's tough to regress a $6 six and eight.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
-
mksmash
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
Thank's H. I'm sort of going on a sorta, kinda, sabbatical at the start of 2013, so I am definitely in for Biloxi. Haven't done any toss work in a long time and need to pull out my Site & Dix practice rig and get started.Heavy wrote:
Glad to see you came out of retirement and posted again. Looking forward to seeing you at the tables again. How about Biloxi in the Spring?
h
Hey Wild Child! I'm gonna steal that line: "The difference is what makes machine gunners and snipers fight the same war using different tactics..."
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
Heavy,
I don't know if we agree on betting sessions with regression or not!
A group of sessions at some point equal the long run and then the math of the game is controlling as it relates to random throwers and therefore I am saying no betting system over comes the math of the game.
What is the long term and what are the outliers for any individual betters.
I have been playing craps on my iPhone and in my current game I have 8,446 rolls and have bet almost $782,000. The math says I should have a loss of $5,243 and I'm sitting with a profit of $7,033.
Do I believe the betting method I am using, i.e. a continuous pass line/come bet of $5 with 20 times odds, is a guaranteed winning method.
No!
I don't believe there is a winning betting method for craps.
Noah
I don't know if we agree on betting sessions with regression or not!
A group of sessions at some point equal the long run and then the math of the game is controlling as it relates to random throwers and therefore I am saying no betting system over comes the math of the game.
What is the long term and what are the outliers for any individual betters.
I have been playing craps on my iPhone and in my current game I have 8,446 rolls and have bet almost $782,000. The math says I should have a loss of $5,243 and I'm sitting with a profit of $7,033.
Do I believe the betting method I am using, i.e. a continuous pass line/come bet of $5 with 20 times odds, is a guaranteed winning method.
No!
I don't believe there is a winning betting method for craps.
Noah
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wild child
- Posts: 1522
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:29 pm
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
Craps Forever
The roll of the dice you call the COME OUT ROLL
What term do you use to identify the first roll of the dice which establish the PASS LINE POINT ?
What terminology are you using to identify the first roll after the PASS LINE POINT is established?
May we identify C/O or COME OUT ROLL ? Then the subsequent rolls so we are all on the same page .
You may be seeing a VARIANCE related to a small window in time, table,shooter or ambient atmospheric conditions,the drink girl,dealer rotation,a DARK SIDE PLAYER entering the game,ambient noise level,and the list goes on & on....................................
There are gamers who routinely skip certain specific sequences and or numbers..My thoughts are if these are "feelings" or per-recognition ,experience,"little voices" or whatever......if it works to extend one's bankroll so much the richer is the person using it.........
At this moment,there may be a person using a secrete charting methodology they shelled out MANY $$$$$$$$ and follow to the LETTER or NUMBER or whatever...If it works or even if you believe it works go for it and PROSPER...........
If it comes down to BLINK THOUGHT or CHARTING same deal....use what works for you.
Numbers dudes use "THE NUMBERS". The metaphysical prone use something I guess however do not comprehend. Some folks aline chips in the RAIL to indicate such & such..Occasionally there are people just counting fingers and presumably toes ..Even players investing in mariners wrist watches and timing their play to HIGH TIDE/ LOW TIDE ,moon phases etc..Far be it for me to criticize what works for others.
May help if we could use the same terminology
W C
P S : I gift the sniper Vs machine gun analogy to any and all who wish to use it and for good measure I'll toss in " Win,Win.Win----Pay,PAY.PAY!!!!!!!!!!!"
The roll of the dice you call the COME OUT ROLL
What term do you use to identify the first roll of the dice which establish the PASS LINE POINT ?
What terminology are you using to identify the first roll after the PASS LINE POINT is established?
May we identify C/O or COME OUT ROLL ? Then the subsequent rolls so we are all on the same page .
You may be seeing a VARIANCE related to a small window in time, table,shooter or ambient atmospheric conditions,the drink girl,dealer rotation,a DARK SIDE PLAYER entering the game,ambient noise level,and the list goes on & on....................................
There are gamers who routinely skip certain specific sequences and or numbers..My thoughts are if these are "feelings" or per-recognition ,experience,"little voices" or whatever......if it works to extend one's bankroll so much the richer is the person using it.........
At this moment,there may be a person using a secrete charting methodology they shelled out MANY $$$$$$$$ and follow to the LETTER or NUMBER or whatever...If it works or even if you believe it works go for it and PROSPER...........
If it comes down to BLINK THOUGHT or CHARTING same deal....use what works for you.
Numbers dudes use "THE NUMBERS". The metaphysical prone use something I guess however do not comprehend. Some folks aline chips in the RAIL to indicate such & such..Occasionally there are people just counting fingers and presumably toes ..Even players investing in mariners wrist watches and timing their play to HIGH TIDE/ LOW TIDE ,moon phases etc..Far be it for me to criticize what works for others.
May help if we could use the same terminology
W C
P S : I gift the sniper Vs machine gun analogy to any and all who wish to use it and for good measure I'll toss in " Win,Win.Win----Pay,PAY.PAY!!!!!!!!!!!"
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CrapsForever
- Posts: 135
- Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2012 8:33 pm
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
Wild Child,
The term "Come Out Roll/Rolls" refers to the roll/rolls that occur before the Point is established when the "Puck is Off". The first roll/rolls before determining the Point is the Comeout roll so for example....before establishing the Point, I usually use a Horn Dice Set to make $$$ before the Point is established; the Horn Dice Set works well for me because if I throw a "7" during this Period, I actually win because of my Pass Line Bet. Once the Point is established (POINT CYCLE); I use a 7-avoidance/Non-Horn Dice Set. Thanks to MP for pointing out to me that the stage after the Point is established should be referred to as "POINT CYCLE". I will use this term and hopefully it would make my posts a lot clearer... I am new to the DI posting community so I need to get caught up on all the appropriate terminology.
I pay very close attention to the very first roll AFTER the Point is established (POINT CYCLE) because it almost always is a big clue to how my hand is going to be. People like to call it "selective memory" but I am a Stats guy and I have a bit of ADD when it comes to numbers, sequences, patterns so I pay strong attention to it.
Personally, the weakest Point of my game is that very first roll AFTER establishing the Point (POINT CYCLE). If I DO NOT throw a "7" which I refer to as "PSO" meaning Point Established, Seven Out or a Horn # (Remember that after establishing the Point, I switch to a Dice Set that is 7-Avoidance/Non-Horn heavy); I almost always have a good roll.
This is something that happens in almost every single Craps session over the past decade. When you play Craps with me, it's very easy to determine how to bet on my rolls. There is no Guess work involved:
Pre-Point Established Phase - I am going to throw lots of Horns/7's
First Roll AFTER Point is established (POINT CYCLE) - "Remember this is when I usually 7-out, unintentionally" - I would NOT have any numbers working other than the Point working.
IF I throw a Horn on that first roll AFTER establishing the Point (POINT CYCLE); I almost always 7-out within the next roll...I will either throw another Horn or 7-out.
Let's simplify this further....if you are betting the "Right" Side when I am throwing the Dice...I "HIGHLY" suggest you don't make any bets until I throw a "Box #".
Regarding other shooters; I try to see if there is a pattern to numbers they throw. I notice that in most of my sessions; most people 7-out either on the first roll after establishing a Point (PSO) or after throwing a Horn during the Point Cycle so I usually turn off my bets at this point of the game. There are people who have the uncanny ability to throw "Buckshots"; I refer to "Buckshots" as hitting the Point on the very first roll AFTER establishing the Point. On these people, I may have a Pass Line Bet but I do not put heavy odds until they get past that first roll AFTER they establishing the Point. If they are hitting Buckshots; I will hop the Point on the very first roll for a few $$$. Example; if he/she establishes a "4" or "10", one of my favorite bets is hopping the established "4" or "10" for $2 each with a $2 C&E.
By hopping the established "4" or "10" for $2 each on the first roll...I have the possibility for a $30 or $60 profit minus the $2 C&E. I'd rather bet this small amount in the stage of the game I deem as "most critical - first roll AFTER the Point is established". I'd rather risk $6 total than put $30 in Odds on the layout. If he throws a "4"; if that was the established Point; I get paid..if he throws a 7; I only lose $6. If he throws a Horn on the first roll..my "Hop the Point" stays up and I get $2 ($6 total Payout on $1 Crap Check after factoring $7 Crap Payout minus $1 Yo - $4 Hop Bets on Point), I get $10 ($15 total Payout on $1 Yo minus $1 Crap Check - $4 Hop Bets)...most of the time...I use the additional $$$ to hop the 7's immediately...you'll be amazed the amount of 7-outs that occur after the shooter throws a Horn to start the Post-Point established part of the game.....
NUMBER PATTERNS - HORN/7-OUT
I played Craps with a guy last year who kept on having great rolls but after throwing ONE Horn during the "ON" cycle (Point Cycle) of the game; he would ALWAYS throw a "7" on the very next roll. I was tracking his rolls and it occurred 4 consecutive times where he would throw a Horn and immediately throw a 7.
After the 4th consecutive time; I told the entire table this anamoly and we all started paying stronger attention; over a 4 hour Craps session; the same guy 7'ed out 11 CONSECUTIVE times after throwing a Horn during the "POINT CYCLE" part of the game...he went 11 for 11 in throwing a "7-out" after throwing a Horn. The entire table including the shooter himself turned off all their bets and "hopped the 7's" after he threw a Horn. It was one of the most amazing experiences I have ever witnessed.
NUMBER PATTERNS: DICE OFF THE TABLE - 7-out
Though people like to call us Craps players very superstitious; I believe that we are simply using historical data/trends to make betting decisions. I know for a fact that during my craps sessions; Dice off the table is usually followed by a 7-out regardless of who is shooting the Dice. There is no scientific way for me to prove it but I know this based on tracking this data in my sessions. I know that when I throw the Dice off the table...I will NOT throw another Box # no matter now hard I try over 90% of the time.
EXTREME CASE OF DICE OFF THE TABLE/NEXT ROLL 7-out: I was playing Craps in Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, Illinois near Chicago back in May 2012 and I noticed a ridiculous consecutive streak of "Dice off the table/7-out on the very next roll" During a 3 hour Period - it occurred 15 CONSECUTIVE times!!! I kept on turning my bets "OFF" and hopping the 7's each time it happened.
POINT SEVEN OUT KING -
I had a ridiculous streak back in June 2012 at Hollywood Casino, WVA where the first TEN times; I threw the Dice AFTER establishing the Point; I 7'ed out on that roll. That's 10 for 10 in Point Established, Seven Outs. I eventually went 12 hands without making a single point. The sad thing is I was playing from the Pass Line the entire time. My saving grace is that because I have this RIDICULOUS tendency to "PSO"; I was hopping the "7" on that first roll after the Point was established and did not have any Odds behind my Pass Line Bet so I actually made a profit on my non-intentional PSO's. People kept on complaining saying "Why is he playing the Pass Line and keep hopping 7's???"
This past weekend on the hand where I threw 4 consecutive Ace/Deuces BEFORE the Point was established ..the guy betting the $90 5, $90 6 and $90 Field put his bets out on the felt after I established the Point. I warned him "Do not make any bets on me other than a Horn/Field until I throw a Box # "He hesitated but decided to listen to me and pulled back his bets..he thanked me profusely after I threw a non-intentional "7-out" on the very first roll AFTER establishing the Point. He saved $270 by listening to the shooter....what a noble idea...paying attention to the person who has the Dice in his/her hand...
SUMMARY
To summarize this long drawn out posts; when playing Craps...I use historical trends to make betting decisions and will change those betting decisions based on any current over-riding trends that I am seeing.
I do not believe Craps is random at all; I believe that if we pay close attention to what people are doing/betting/expressions when they are about to shoot the Dice; we can determine the best way to make our bets. If I see a shooter call his bets "OFF"; I am going to call my bets "OFF". Due to my team nature; I make it very obvious to other Craps players on the table when I "feel" like I am going to 7-out when I have the Dice...either by repeatedly saying "BETS OFF, OFF, OFF"; I always advise players near me on the Craps table: "DO NOT MAKE ANY PLACE BETS ON ME UNTIL I THROW A BOX NUMBER ON THIS HAND!!!
Hope this clarified my earlier posts, let me know if I can provide further details to provide more clarification on my stand on betting on "trends".
The term "Come Out Roll/Rolls" refers to the roll/rolls that occur before the Point is established when the "Puck is Off". The first roll/rolls before determining the Point is the Comeout roll so for example....before establishing the Point, I usually use a Horn Dice Set to make $$$ before the Point is established; the Horn Dice Set works well for me because if I throw a "7" during this Period, I actually win because of my Pass Line Bet. Once the Point is established (POINT CYCLE); I use a 7-avoidance/Non-Horn Dice Set. Thanks to MP for pointing out to me that the stage after the Point is established should be referred to as "POINT CYCLE". I will use this term and hopefully it would make my posts a lot clearer... I am new to the DI posting community so I need to get caught up on all the appropriate terminology.
I pay very close attention to the very first roll AFTER the Point is established (POINT CYCLE) because it almost always is a big clue to how my hand is going to be. People like to call it "selective memory" but I am a Stats guy and I have a bit of ADD when it comes to numbers, sequences, patterns so I pay strong attention to it.
Personally, the weakest Point of my game is that very first roll AFTER establishing the Point (POINT CYCLE). If I DO NOT throw a "7" which I refer to as "PSO" meaning Point Established, Seven Out or a Horn # (Remember that after establishing the Point, I switch to a Dice Set that is 7-Avoidance/Non-Horn heavy); I almost always have a good roll.
This is something that happens in almost every single Craps session over the past decade. When you play Craps with me, it's very easy to determine how to bet on my rolls. There is no Guess work involved:
Pre-Point Established Phase - I am going to throw lots of Horns/7's
First Roll AFTER Point is established (POINT CYCLE) - "Remember this is when I usually 7-out, unintentionally" - I would NOT have any numbers working other than the Point working.
IF I throw a Horn on that first roll AFTER establishing the Point (POINT CYCLE); I almost always 7-out within the next roll...I will either throw another Horn or 7-out.
Let's simplify this further....if you are betting the "Right" Side when I am throwing the Dice...I "HIGHLY" suggest you don't make any bets until I throw a "Box #".
Regarding other shooters; I try to see if there is a pattern to numbers they throw. I notice that in most of my sessions; most people 7-out either on the first roll after establishing a Point (PSO) or after throwing a Horn during the Point Cycle so I usually turn off my bets at this point of the game. There are people who have the uncanny ability to throw "Buckshots"; I refer to "Buckshots" as hitting the Point on the very first roll AFTER establishing the Point. On these people, I may have a Pass Line Bet but I do not put heavy odds until they get past that first roll AFTER they establishing the Point. If they are hitting Buckshots; I will hop the Point on the very first roll for a few $$$. Example; if he/she establishes a "4" or "10", one of my favorite bets is hopping the established "4" or "10" for $2 each with a $2 C&E.
By hopping the established "4" or "10" for $2 each on the first roll...I have the possibility for a $30 or $60 profit minus the $2 C&E. I'd rather bet this small amount in the stage of the game I deem as "most critical - first roll AFTER the Point is established". I'd rather risk $6 total than put $30 in Odds on the layout. If he throws a "4"; if that was the established Point; I get paid..if he throws a 7; I only lose $6. If he throws a Horn on the first roll..my "Hop the Point" stays up and I get $2 ($6 total Payout on $1 Crap Check after factoring $7 Crap Payout minus $1 Yo - $4 Hop Bets on Point), I get $10 ($15 total Payout on $1 Yo minus $1 Crap Check - $4 Hop Bets)...most of the time...I use the additional $$$ to hop the 7's immediately...you'll be amazed the amount of 7-outs that occur after the shooter throws a Horn to start the Post-Point established part of the game.....
NUMBER PATTERNS - HORN/7-OUT
I played Craps with a guy last year who kept on having great rolls but after throwing ONE Horn during the "ON" cycle (Point Cycle) of the game; he would ALWAYS throw a "7" on the very next roll. I was tracking his rolls and it occurred 4 consecutive times where he would throw a Horn and immediately throw a 7.
After the 4th consecutive time; I told the entire table this anamoly and we all started paying stronger attention; over a 4 hour Craps session; the same guy 7'ed out 11 CONSECUTIVE times after throwing a Horn during the "POINT CYCLE" part of the game...he went 11 for 11 in throwing a "7-out" after throwing a Horn. The entire table including the shooter himself turned off all their bets and "hopped the 7's" after he threw a Horn. It was one of the most amazing experiences I have ever witnessed.
NUMBER PATTERNS: DICE OFF THE TABLE - 7-out
Though people like to call us Craps players very superstitious; I believe that we are simply using historical data/trends to make betting decisions. I know for a fact that during my craps sessions; Dice off the table is usually followed by a 7-out regardless of who is shooting the Dice. There is no scientific way for me to prove it but I know this based on tracking this data in my sessions. I know that when I throw the Dice off the table...I will NOT throw another Box # no matter now hard I try over 90% of the time.
EXTREME CASE OF DICE OFF THE TABLE/NEXT ROLL 7-out: I was playing Craps in Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, Illinois near Chicago back in May 2012 and I noticed a ridiculous consecutive streak of "Dice off the table/7-out on the very next roll" During a 3 hour Period - it occurred 15 CONSECUTIVE times!!! I kept on turning my bets "OFF" and hopping the 7's each time it happened.
POINT SEVEN OUT KING -
I had a ridiculous streak back in June 2012 at Hollywood Casino, WVA where the first TEN times; I threw the Dice AFTER establishing the Point; I 7'ed out on that roll. That's 10 for 10 in Point Established, Seven Outs. I eventually went 12 hands without making a single point. The sad thing is I was playing from the Pass Line the entire time. My saving grace is that because I have this RIDICULOUS tendency to "PSO"; I was hopping the "7" on that first roll after the Point was established and did not have any Odds behind my Pass Line Bet so I actually made a profit on my non-intentional PSO's. People kept on complaining saying "Why is he playing the Pass Line and keep hopping 7's???"
This past weekend on the hand where I threw 4 consecutive Ace/Deuces BEFORE the Point was established ..the guy betting the $90 5, $90 6 and $90 Field put his bets out on the felt after I established the Point. I warned him "Do not make any bets on me other than a Horn/Field until I throw a Box # "He hesitated but decided to listen to me and pulled back his bets..he thanked me profusely after I threw a non-intentional "7-out" on the very first roll AFTER establishing the Point. He saved $270 by listening to the shooter....what a noble idea...paying attention to the person who has the Dice in his/her hand...
SUMMARY
To summarize this long drawn out posts; when playing Craps...I use historical trends to make betting decisions and will change those betting decisions based on any current over-riding trends that I am seeing.
I do not believe Craps is random at all; I believe that if we pay close attention to what people are doing/betting/expressions when they are about to shoot the Dice; we can determine the best way to make our bets. If I see a shooter call his bets "OFF"; I am going to call my bets "OFF". Due to my team nature; I make it very obvious to other Craps players on the table when I "feel" like I am going to 7-out when I have the Dice...either by repeatedly saying "BETS OFF, OFF, OFF"; I always advise players near me on the Craps table: "DO NOT MAKE ANY PLACE BETS ON ME UNTIL I THROW A BOX NUMBER ON THIS HAND!!!
Hope this clarified my earlier posts, let me know if I can provide further details to provide more clarification on my stand on betting on "trends".
Last edited by CrapsForever on Mon Sep 24, 2012 10:48 am, edited 3 times in total.
"The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist." - Baudelaire
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Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
Instead of trying to come up with a new name for the tosses made after the Point has been established (the post Come-Out cycle); can't we just stick to what everyone else calls it: the POINT-CYCLE?
MP
MP
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wild child
- Posts: 1522
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:29 pm
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
O K With me
W C
W C
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
yeah..
A Come-Out roll to set a point (or win/lose on naturals).
A Point roll to decide the point.
So I think the term CrapsForever was looking for was "First Point-Cycle Roll". And when you toss a 7 on the "first point-cycle roll", we also call that a PSO (point / seven-out).
I've also seen some folks call any Seven-Out a PSO, but we generally reserve PSO to mean a seven on the first point-cycle roll. Terminology can be a bear when all we have is the written medium to communicate. It's easy for messages to get lost in translation when words mean something different to each reader and from what the writer intends.
Regardless, I think CrapsForever's main point of watching for patterns in shooters that are attempting controlled (or even rhythmic) throws is worth while.
A Come-Out roll to set a point (or win/lose on naturals).
A Point roll to decide the point.
So I think the term CrapsForever was looking for was "First Point-Cycle Roll". And when you toss a 7 on the "first point-cycle roll", we also call that a PSO (point / seven-out).
I've also seen some folks call any Seven-Out a PSO, but we generally reserve PSO to mean a seven on the first point-cycle roll. Terminology can be a bear when all we have is the written medium to communicate. It's easy for messages to get lost in translation when words mean something different to each reader and from what the writer intends.
Regardless, I think CrapsForever's main point of watching for patterns in shooters that are attempting controlled (or even rhythmic) throws is worth while.
Click here for: BoneTracker 5.6 (Requires Excel)
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
So for years we've talked about regression strategies, as evidenced by this classic thread from 2012, which references an earlier discussion from 2006. These days it's all about presses and power presses with little talk about regressions. And yet, a regression move is STILL one of the most powerful tools in the toolbox for craps players looking to lock up a profit and a guaranteed win during a hand. So what's your current thinking.
1. Do you still incorporate regressions? If so . . .
2. What is your current regressions strategy? Do you regress at a specific level? If so . . .
3. Do you run a Six and Eight progression only? What is your trigger for regressing? A certain bet size? If so . . .
4. How much action do you have to have on the Six or Eight before you regress, and what do you regress down to?
5. Do you regress ALL of your Inside Numbers? If so - what is your trigger for regressing? A certain bet size? If so . . .
6. How much action do you have to have on the Inside Numbers before you regress, and what do you regress down to?
7. If you bet ACROSS - How much action do you have on the table before you regress - and what's your trigger for regressions? What level do you regress down to on your ACROSS bets?
Tell us ALL about where you START your bets at, how far up you PRESS your bets, what your trigger is for REGRESSING your bets, and what level you REGRESS your bets down to after hitting that trigger.
If you do NOT regress your bets - tell us WHY?
1. Do you still incorporate regressions? If so . . .
2. What is your current regressions strategy? Do you regress at a specific level? If so . . .
3. Do you run a Six and Eight progression only? What is your trigger for regressing? A certain bet size? If so . . .
4. How much action do you have to have on the Six or Eight before you regress, and what do you regress down to?
5. Do you regress ALL of your Inside Numbers? If so - what is your trigger for regressing? A certain bet size? If so . . .
6. How much action do you have to have on the Inside Numbers before you regress, and what do you regress down to?
7. If you bet ACROSS - How much action do you have on the table before you regress - and what's your trigger for regressions? What level do you regress down to on your ACROSS bets?
Tell us ALL about where you START your bets at, how far up you PRESS your bets, what your trigger is for REGRESSING your bets, and what level you REGRESS your bets down to after hitting that trigger.
If you do NOT regress your bets - tell us WHY?
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
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DarthNater
- Posts: 2135
- Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 8:01 pm
- Location: Vegas, Baby!
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
I regress when I see an energy draining event, if the shooter is a randy; though it's more likely I go off one roll and then regress.
For DIs I know well, I might skip a press move instead of a regression. For a DI that I don't know, like the Mystery Guy in Biloxi that hailed from Detroit. I regressed twice, both times around a stick change as I recall. It cost me over $1200, as Bankerdude colored that much more than me, after starting with an $18 six. With an $18 start, he didn't care to regress, DN8R
For DIs I know well, I might skip a press move instead of a regression. For a DI that I don't know, like the Mystery Guy in Biloxi that hailed from Detroit. I regressed twice, both times around a stick change as I recall. It cost me over $1200, as Bankerdude colored that much more than me, after starting with an $18 six. With an $18 start, he didn't care to regress, DN8R
Your lack of faith in The Force disturbs me, Commander.......
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
The hardest thing in the game of craps is to break even on a shooter
initially I take two to three hits and regress to break even;goal is to get my money back in the shortest number of rolls;after that one can press to suit their style of play;I do not regress deep into the roll;miss too many key hits
initially I take two to three hits and regress to break even;goal is to get my money back in the shortest number of rolls;after that one can press to suit their style of play;I do not regress deep into the roll;miss too many key hits
Re: What happened to regression strategies?
I go across with place bets and put bets then regress which takes me 4 individual hits to break even then I start pressing after the 6th roll.