Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Until I learn otherwise, I just include myself and every other shooter as a random roller, so less is best.

After a point is established, I will usually be looking to place the 6 and 8 and maybe have some odds on my passline.

I wait for the first roll after the point and then place the bets one at a time on each subsequent roll. I just don't like loading everything up right away.

I like to bet 160 across for the first roll after the come out. I may leave it up for one more roll, whether it hits or not.( Only if I feel it in my gut). Then I bring it down and put 22 on the inside, and collect my winnings. If I think a seven is coming I'll take down the 5 and 9 and ride it out with 6and 8, not pressing any bets. I try to get ahead early, then
grind it out

I take 1x odds on my pass line bet and make a Come bet if I don't have a come bet working already.

I wait for a RR to make a box number on his 2nd point to qualify. Before that I'm $5 on the Don't against every shooter until he proves otherwise. Lay odds only if the table is super cold. Your only killing time and keeping your spot til its your turn to shoot. Remember that!

Someone on here said that a Hot Roll by a Random Roller is the Exception, Not the Rule.

Playing the Don't Side

On other Shooters:

I wait until they have rolled the dice 8 times and then I make a $10 Don't Come bet. If it travels to the 6 or 8, I will put another $10 in the Don't Come. I will keep doing that until I get an outside number or 2 loses. After I get an outside number as my point, I will place the 6 and/or the 8 for $10 to cancel them out. ( I have to remember if he makes his point, to have my 6 and/or 8 working on the come out.) If the point becomes the 5 or 9 I will wait for the outcome. If the point becomes the 4 or 10 I will lay single Odds on my $10 DC bet.


$5Bill

Snake,
Taking down a don't bet or declining(No Action)a bet after the 7/11 hurdle has been crossed is not a wise move. If you don't like that number just place that number for the same amount. If the number rolls you make a few bucks. If the seven rolls you break even.

Snake,

I completely agree, BUT if one is going to be afraid of losing a don't bet it is better to place against it than completely take it down or no action a DP or DC after avoiding the 7/11. Not everyone has the BR we do, and playing this way may extend their time at the table.

$nakeeye$ wrote:

I am NOT spending MY time at the table to win a pissy $2 or $4 -

Sell it to me, it already beat the sheriff and his deputy, I'll lay odds and book the house all the way to the cage.

I never take a Don't bet down. If the shooter rolls a 6 or 8, I let my $10 Don't Come travel to that number. I put another $10 bet in the Don't Come. Now my Don't Come is hedged against the 7 if the shooter rolls it on that toss. Once my $10 DC travels to an outside number, I place the 6 or 8 for $10. Now I will either break even if the 7 is rolled or win $1 if the shooter rolls the 6 or 8.

(My home casino do not have $5 tables, but if it did, I would place it for $6.Risking $3 to win 4 with a 6 to 5 edge on the house)

You can find this play in John Patrick's Advanced Craps Book on pg 363.


$5Bill

$nakeeye$ wrote:

I am NOT spending MY time at the table to win a pissy $2 or $4 -

Then go for the gusto and do not call no-action on a don't bet!

luxlogs wrote:
Sell it to me, it already beat the sheriff and his deputy, I'll lay odds and book the house all the way to the cage.

If you are buying somebody else's already traveled DC it is better to not lay odds. On a point of 6 at $10 for example, with no odds you are looking at winning 6 times (+$60) and losing 5 times (-$50), for an expected return of +$10. If you were to lay single odds ($12) 6 wins equates to +$120 while 5 losses equates to -$110. You still net the same $10 either way, but you are getting less ROI - no odds costs a total of $110 while single odds will cost $242 - again for the same $10 expected return.

wudged wrote:

$nakeeye$ wrote:

I am NOT spending MY time at the table to win a pissy $2 or $4 -

Then go for the gusto and do not call no-action on a don't bet!

luxlogs wrote:
Sell it to me, it already beat the sheriff and his deputy, I'll lay odds and book the house all the way to the cage.

If you are buying somebody else's already traveled DC it is better to not lay odds. On a point of 6 at $10 for example, with no odds you are looking at winning 6 times (+$60) and losing 5 times (-$50), for an expected return of +$10. If you were to lay single odds ($12) 6 wins equates to +$120 while 5 losses equates to -$110. You still net the same $10 either way, but you are getting less ROI - no odds costs a total of $110 while single odds will cost $242 - again for the same $10 expected return.

I'm trying to come up with an argument for you but none is forth coming, I can't fault your math.

So riddle me this, except for a hedge on a bet going thru the DC do you ever lay the odds?

I ask because I am torn between what I like better, 3, 25 dollar flat Don't or 3, 5 dollar don't with 30 odds. I was leaning to the 25 flats because I like to parley the Crap rolls (as per Sam Grafstein), but maybe the math is also better this way. Thoughts???

Thanks in Advance.

You should lay as many odds as you can if you are the one jumping over the 7/11 hurdle. That hurdle is the don't side's disadvantage (obviously) and laying odds reduces the overall edge on that. If you're able to side step that hurdle instead of jumping over it, so to say, then it's better to not lay odds.

If you are not the shooter, I find it more profitable to wait and watch for repeating numbers that favour the shooter and bet with his trends. example: shooter rolls 5 numbers but 3 of them were 9's and he is still rolling using same dice set, what do you do? answer... Bet on the 9 and fill your chip stack. or if the shooter is rolling many outside numbers and craps... bet the field too.

I don't understand why EVERYONE does not use the 5-count strategy. It eliminates the 57% of shooters who 7-out before making 5 rolls (point numbers). Anything that makes you lose less money is a good idea.

Be careful you're getting his irish up. Cmon the guy quotes Voltaire. "judge of a man by his questions rather than by his answers."Thank you irish for making me smile in the middle of this ice storm Peace JD

$nakeEye$,

I think that you and Irish might be saying the same thing in different ways. I think Irish might be talking about low populated tables meaning he only bets on his own controlled shooting and skips the randies (if there are only a few). It sounds like you and your AC crew generally play as a larger group on a more populated table, but you may also be betting more heavily on your group of controlled shooters, whom you have confidence in based on their abilities.

Regarding the 5 count, I guess I also feel like its not a bad way to go, controlled shooter or not. I'm not a heavy duty Probability and Statistics guy and I'm also not trying to defend any Golden ideas, but I do feel like I read somewhere that the average Pass line bet in craps is resolved in approx. 3.5 rolls (or we can round up to 4 rolls). I believe the bet being resolved means - win or lose the hand is over. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong or chime in if you can more accurately convey what I'm attempting to here. I believe that would suggest that using a 5 count is an attempt to bypass the short hands that help keep that Pass Line Bet Resolved average low and allow one to try to catch one of the longer hands. I also think that repeating box numbers as part of some type of count to qualify a shooter is a better indicator than someone who shoots 5 crap numbers to start a hand. The longer I play this game the more I do believe in trends and if using some type of qualification criteria (or count) helps one avoid a negative trend and/or catch a positive trend, more power to you. Just my thoughts and I guess I'm leaning toward more Right side play with my comments.

BoilerM8KR

@Lucky2Balady,
Do you use the 5 count? Do you feel it has worked for you? I know my last time out it would have saved me if I had used it.

Jazzy

It's a very fair point I think to say that qualifying shooters is doing nothing other than keeping your money off the table, which from all the stats MP and you others talk about has to a good thing long term in a negative expectation game.

I have started doing the same when I play over here. There are a couple of indicators I use, but as everybody I have ever seen roll this side of the pond so far can be deemed nothing other than a random roller, then I might as well bet every second shooter, ever shooter wearing glasses, (or every nose picker ). You might as well say to yourself on a table of randies I'm only betting 50% of them. If they roll an odd number first up up, then I'm in.