Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Like most people, I would see if at the end of the day if I made a profit or loss. However, over time I developed another way to see how successful my day was.

I look at my profit/loss to how much I have had invested. For example:

1) $10 pass line bet
2) point is 5, $34 inside and $10 odds


so during this roll I have $54 invested. Any chips I collect goes in a different rack then my bankroll. When the roll is over, I see how much profit/loss I made on that roll over the $54 initial bets I made. Afterwards I total the results for each time I held the dice.

Using a most recent trip I tossed thrice at a $10 table. Left up $84, so 8.4 units doesn't sound great but it's better than a loss. But i had a total of $112 invested, which is 75% return on investment.

Bottom line, it's always good to leave the table up. But with this, you can see if your current betting system/strategy is best, especially if you are trying different strategies.

Thestoic: This is very similar to Grafstein. He used front rack/back rack. Buyin in the front, collections in the rear. When the front rack was empty, count the back. If he could move up a level, great, if he could remain playing at the same level great, if he had to leave so be it. Then if he had to replenish to get to his buyin to continue, that was a decision also. He would not replenish this front rack from the back unless it was a small amount to make the last bet from his front rack. (I think this is right, it has been many years since I read him.)

If you are disciplined and enjoy recordkeeping, any additional data that can be collected is a good thing.

Its funny, when we look at the traditional investing of our money we consider a good ROI (Return on Investment) to be in the neighborhood of 8%-10%. When we enter a casino, our greed gets the best of us and sometimes its gamble or bust and we look for a return of 2x-3x our buy in which translates into a 100% or greater return. Rationally we agree with John Patrick (Advanced Craps Ch139; p339) who says a 10% return is acceptable, but the greed monster always rears its ugly head in a betting environment.

As the Good Book says," Wealth gained hastily will dwindle, but whoever gathers little by little will increase it." (Proverbs 13:11 ESV)
"Cast but a glance at riches, and they are gone, for they will surely sprout wings and fly off to the sky like an eagle." (Proverbs 23:5 NIV)

The bottom line for me (when it comes to the actual money), is how much I walk into the casino with and how much I walk out with.

I think what makes the ROI really mushy is that on a particular hand you can win a lot. $44 inside, three hits and down and I have a 95% return. That feels good so we want it again. Or worse, we think "Hummm...that worked..maybe 4 hits and down?" But whichever side you play, the volatility of the game always shows when a streak comes that's against your current play. Long term we need some big wins to offset a steady smattering of losing hands. If the wins came slow and steady it might be easier to accept. But since winning $50 typically means you WON $600, but also lost $550, the mind wants to believe that should be a $600 win, if only the losses could be eliminated.

L & I say all the time, the inventors of this game weren't just brilliant about the math, odds and variety of bets but also human psychology.