??????????Do we see a pattern ??????????

[wild child]

.
??????????Do we see a pattern ??????????
.
Simple question with a multitude of complex considerations before answering YES / NO-PERHAPS
........
If we could identify ,quantify and qualify a HAND ( number of ROLLS )
it may become as useful as driving forward while looking deeply into the rear view mirror....or would it be of use?
.
The HOWEVER FACTOR is other than the gift of CLAIRVOYANCE we have at best
the history of an event.....Recent history or distant history...........
.
Was it D F who said While DICE have zero memory...Dice do have a history..........
.
Historical information or intelligence gathering seems to come into play
in the financials ( STOCK MARKET,Insurance,Commodities etc )
.
If we go with the number of tosses or rolls of the dice average out to 3.6 trials
or attempts to a decision of a REPEAT or SEVEN OUT....
.
With that said...
......Any hand composed of fewer rolls/tosses may be described as UNDER PERFORMING..KNOW ?
....Any hand composed of a greater number than 3.6 rolls/tossed may be OVER PERFORMING..KNOW?
.........
Severely UNDER PERFORMANCE may be the dreaded P S Oand P P S O ? KNOW
......Would what we observe be affect how we QUANTIFY and QUALIFY these events
.
Are all the sum of two dice equal in the eyes of the observer?
.
When a shooter initiates a series consisting of HORN numbers or a combination of
COME OUT SEVENS mixed with some HORN NUMBERS ,are those results equal to
perhaps 3.6 ( playing with the average)HARD SIXES showing?
based upon identifying by observation........How would you figure 3.6 HARD SIXES BACK TO BACK
.
Standing around the typical craps table, is it O K to just lump all the tosses by any and all
the shooters ?

Would it be better to maintain the results separated and specific to each individual ?
...
When do you know it is safe to place your money at risk a reduced of loss ?
..
If you are keeping track and the TOSS COUNT exceeds 20,would you elect to take
a greater or lesser risk with your WAGER MONIES ?
........

Just me pondering

W C

[freak]

Having charted the tables for a year now here is my personal observation:

If your betting strategy is in harmony with the trend, you will win. Identifying the trend while it's happening is nearly impossible except on exceptionally strong and lengthy trends.

For nearly every series of sessions, a review of the data will yield a trend and that trend will be punctuated by several intense clusters of that trend. For example, if the tables are consistently cold there were be some streaks of PSO and PPSO hands back to back to back. If six was the dominant number, there will be some streaks of good six-eight hands with the six sometimes hitting back to back in a cluster. The key to a successful weekend of craps is having a betting strategy that is in harmony with the dominant trend and in position to exploit the clusters. If you bet on the don't with odds during that cold streak you'll likely have a nice win. If you have six as your trophy number during the six cluster weekend you'll be rewarded. But being in harmony with the cluster takes a lot of observation, intuition and mostly, just plain luck.

This past weekend after a dismal Saturday, the data didn't seem to indicate any trend. But the more I looked I realized that field numbers were often coming in bunches. "See a field, bet a field, parlay and down." might be a fairly successful play. The next day I was able to catch 4 winning hits on a streak of 7 field numbers. It was mostly luck as I wasn't really looking for that cluster, even though I'd identified it the day before. I was seeking the cold streak that seemed to be more generally dominant. The field wasn't really even on my radar. But I got in on the 3rd field number and when it hit I decided to ride the field train to the end. $15 became $65.

I mostly missed another nice cluster as it was totally out of character with the weekend. On a day when a placed 6 & 8 was rarely earning even one hit, a shooter rolled:

9 - 6H - 8 - 8 - 6 - 8 - 12 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 2 - 7out

I was playing DC. I traveled to 6 and 8 then got picked on the 8 so I placed them both. The next rolls earned me $6 each as the DCs fell. I reluctantly stopped placing DCs after one more DC traveled and fell. Has the table turned? I didn't want to be suckered into chasing a brief cluster of 6-8s. But they kept coming. For a moment it seemed sixes and eights would flow forever. Then I lost $24 +$18 when the 7 came and I had no DCs remaining. Had I started on the 6 & 8 I might have earned a few hundred. As it was I think I was about +$40 for the hand. It gave the table hope, but that was soon dashed as the next shooter PSO'd.

So do we see a pattern? Yes, always in hindsight. And on our luckiest days we notice them on the fly. Being in harmony with a trend is a glorious thing.

[wild child]

.
freak.....Yours is an eye opening post....
.
One of the joints in Biloxi ( BoomTown I seem to recall ) and Ameristar Vicksburg ,Mississippi
have Crap-less Craps tables........In a short time span (perhaps 5 days) I witnessed
patterns very similar to those in your post...........

Upon reflection ,my feelings are that we often overlook the opportunity taking form before our
very eyes.........There are possibly other triggers or INDICATORS if you prefer
that we disregard.I suggest disregard or ignore because we are focused to making our WAGERS
to such and such WAGERING PLAN ( or lack of plan).................
.
Sh*T Fire to save on matches....we just may have to more effectively use that what the
game gives us......at the time and place we are at the tables..........
.
Guess there are in general synchronicity we may observe related to a number of different shooters.
Then there may also be synchronicity specific to specific individual shooters......
.
The PSO and P PSO ,WHIRL ( also called WORLD) pattern are obvious.
Sometimes a specific player will COME OUT with a YO or even toss his first after the C/O sets
the P/L with a YO.....Even less noticed is the event of EVERY SHOOTER tossing a specific BOX NUMBER
and at times MANY of the shooters tossing MULTIPLES of a specific number even if other than BACK to BACK.........
.
Perhaps we will be able to cobble a WAGERING PLAN out of this line of thought.......
.
Not looking for TWINKLE TWINKLE DUST of WOO WOO stuff....just searching for
COMMONALITY or SYNCHRONICITY....Rule of thumb..WHATEVER...
..
Looks as if we are off to a good start...
.
W C
.

[freak]

People often question why I chart rolls at the table. "Are you writing a book?" "Have you learned how to beat the game?" And my all time favorite "So...what number is coming next?" Me: "Hummm...let's see...I'm thinking of a number between 2 and 12..."

I actually started in a effort to validate our DI and quickly found two things: 1) we demonstrated no DI (yet) and 2) writing down the numbers is a very calming exercise that helps me tame my emotions in live play. Plus I've just always loved data. Excel. FileMakerPro. Charts and formulas and trend lines. Feelings and premonitions are, well, just feelings and premonitions. Data is real. It's the history of what really happened. So now when people ask "Why do you write the numbers down?" I just say "Cause I'm a history buff."

Before I kept the book we had started to amass a little collection of personal beliefs. Triggers. Indicators. Two craps numbers in a row meant a 7out was coming! There was even a stretch where I believed the next number after the point was set was more likely to be a field than non-field number.

One of the biggest things I've learned from the data is that the game really is random. Add up all the numbers in my little books and you get near perfect distribution of the numbers just like the odds say I should see. You wouldn't think I'd need data to prove an obvious truth to myself but I did. I studied and saw there is no quantifiable connection between a seven out and any other preceding indicator. The seven-out always comes. So when it comes in a "trend-cluster" it makes an impression and we remember it. We start to believe x = y. And for a very short period of time that IS true. TODAY at this table, x = y 70% of the time. Notice that trend soon enough to bet it and you'll win.

But "noticing a trend early" is tricky stuff. There's a fine line between "using what the table gives us" and "chasing." If the trend de jour is the 5 and my strategy is $110 inside then regress to $44 after 2 hits I'm probably going to do OK. I'll get quick reinforcement that my strategy is working. If I'm on the 5 to start with I'll be ready to press after 2 -3 hits. But if my strategy is 3 DC bets, it's probably unlikely that I'll switch immediately to just placing a 5, even if I get picked off of the five 3 times in a row. (Yes, that's exactly what happened to me recently. I only identified the 5 after it was all over). On the other hand if the trend is pretty close to my "play" I can flex towards it early. Let's say I'm planning to place three numbers and my signature numbers are the 5, 8 & 9. If I start seeing a few sixes, I'll quickly move the 8 to 6.

All this is to say that I think a lot of success comes when we use our instincts to make slight modifications in a preplanned play that is close but not perfectly aligned to "what the table is giving us." If it's too far off we need to walk away. If it's close, a little tuning can make the rack fill quickly when we get in harmony with the clusters that we have adapted our play towards. And if our intuition can be heard above the emotional thrill of winning and tells us that the clusters have vanished, we can keep our chips and walk out winners!

[wild child]

Casinos will have a "score board" that is rapidly updated for Roulette and Baccarat / Mini Bac..
.
Few who play Roulette or Baccarat / Mini Bac would be comfortable playing at a casino
not offering a recent historical billboard of of at least X hands or spins of the wheel....
.
Not much chance of THE HOUSE offering a similar public posting of say the most
recent 40 Black Jack or Texas Hold em hands.........( not sure it would help or hurt )
.
The casino forbids "electronic hand held devices" at the CRAPS TABLE.
(Ever answer your cell phone while standing within 3 feet of the CRAPS TABLE ??)
.
Those who chart ,do so with pen and paper.
The pen and paper seem better tolerated if held BELOW the top level of the Craps Table Rail...
That works well for those who maintain a note pad the size of an index card set on the DRINK SHELF
.......
It is possible to chart THE TABLE and INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS.........
.It may necessitate a little different THINK than others.....

Using the lines on the note pad page........
.
Turn the pad so the lines are VERTICAL.......
.
Now ,with your note pad open you may designate a VERTICAL column for up to TEN/TWELVE PLAYERS
Dedicate THREE columns for STRAIGHT OUT RIGHT,FOUR COLUMNS STICK RIGHT

one for the stick man
REPEAT DESIGNATIONS FOR THE LEFT OF STICK MAN POSITIONS
.
Some pocket size note book/pad allow enough VERTICAL COLUMNS to designate HOOK(s)
..........
While so open the BOTTOM PAGE allows VERTICAL COLUMNS to mock up the DICE MATRIX....
...........
For about $ ONE BUCK and the time it takes to set up your VISUAL AID ...
.................
Should you observe CLUSTERS of NUMBER(s)...you may be better equipped to act upon opportunity.
.....
The MATRIX will demonstrate,if recorded long enough,the dice numbers show as
POSSIBILITY DICTATES.........
THE HOWEVER FACTOR : the PROBABILITY of our time frame being in tune with THE REALITY
is slim.....The results could roll out to infinity....Should you decide not to wait that long....
you are faced with acting in your best interests in the time allotted for you to so do........

For those occasions that present A TOO DIFFICULT SITUATION...you may elect to TRY AGAIN LATER..

Just me saying
W C

[London Shooter]

Freak, in the trips you make I read you often come across known faces at the table. Does any of the data collected on them indicate any level of DI, or are these known faces just as random as throwing as the next person. Or I guess what I am saying is do you come across controlled throwers on your trips that you have data on?

[freak]

We don't know or see any DIs where we play. Many have a throwing ritual, but I see nothing that looks like "influencing" in the way the dice travel or land.

We did see one guy last summer that appeared to be attempting DI. Big guy. He leaned way over the table. His ear was about 6" off the felt. Very soft shot from SL1. A few times he did not hit the back wall and they started giving him heat. He looked good, but never got much of a roll.

We saw a guy last fall with about $25k in the rail and a few thousand across. He rolled number after number from SL1. Not a controled shot, but a soft shot with very little movement after the dice landed. We placed $110 inside and got paid once on each number. We turned off just before he 7ed out. He colored up for $27k. We saw him the next day. He rolled a few numbers so we tried to go big with a $90 six for one roll. He sevened out. Ouch. He rolled for a while and lost about $10k. Whatever he had the night before was gone.