Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

There was a time when I used to make regular come bets. My "play" on my first ever craps adventure in Vegas was a PL bet, then a come bet. This was a sort of "one count" that provided a break-even on PSOs. Once the come traveled I'd put odds on both numbers and hope for a repeater. That's all I knew how to do. I never made a single place bet that first trip.

Since then I've gravitated towards placing almost exclusively, but I still find myself using the come as a one roll hedge. Many times it's paid me. When I get cold feet and place a come and a 7out follows I feel smart. But I'm sure overall that play has been a loser. It often seems to travel to the outside. Then I just can't resist adding odds. So my one roll hedge play ends up costing me $25 in additional losses when the devil shows. When I avoid the come bet and only place, I seem to have much clearer vision about when to regress or take down all together. But when I have a come bet or two out there it just feels "wrong" not to add odds, especially on a 4 or 10. And I almost never take down come bet odds. And if they don't return within a few rolls that means other numbers are hitting and so I want to be placed on those repeaters as well as my come bets. So I get overexposed and even a fair hand can end up being a loser. Or a fair hand get's diminished when a CO7 wipes out a come bet or two. Or I place a much larger PL bet to "protect" my come bets and then set a 4 and 7out.

I just wonder if other's use the come bet as a hedge or if you just avoid it. If you use it as a hedge how do you discipline your subsequent play to keep it from sucking you into a death spiral of re-hedging with more and more come bets? A strict one come only rule? No odds until it hits once? How do you use or avoid the come hedge?

I used to use it all the time when I bet with on other shooters. Now, I mostly play the DC against RR, but there are still the occasions when I'll turn against the house. I those cases, I'll use Heavy's Heatseeker...

After the point is established, I'll place X units on the 6 and 8, usually for me, that means $6 each. Then I'll bet $5 Coming twice, so that I'll have a maximum of $22 exposed after a 4th point is rolled. If the point is made and one of my bets is paid off and the Come bet taken down, I'll bet on the PL as a hedge if I have other Come bets exposed to the new come out roll.

Essentially, this usually allows me a 3-unit risk maximum. Of course if for different consecutive points are rolled (and that's not 'rare'), then the scheme risks 4 units. More often though, one of 3 previously rolled numbers is usually repeated before a 4th separate box number is rolled, and in such a case, my exposure is 3 units.

When a placed 6 or 8 is rolled and paid, I take down the place bet. After 4 payoffs, I'll use the 5th payoff to establish odds on an established Come bet. With continued rolls, you can either rack'em or stack 'm as place bets.

It's a pretty cheap way to grind the Do's; if a good hand comes along, of course you can bet more aggressively, but at least this way, you're not just sitting on your hands while a monster goes by.

Hi Irish do you have a link to where this "place to come to place strategy" is explained, or maybe a few more words, if not too onerous, on what it entails please?

If I understand correctly - place the 6, set out a come bet. 6 hits, collect and come travels, take down your place bet and set up whatever odds. 6 again, come hits with no new incoming come bet so you place the now empty box number again.

London Shooter wrote:Hi Irish do you have a link to where this "place to come to place strategy" is explained, or maybe a few more words, if not too onerous, on what it entails please?

I tend to imagine what Irish means is the practice of having up place bets and money for a come bet, when a number is rolled and the come bet travels, the win from the place bet is used as odds on the new come bet [and in some cases the original and the win...] meaning for instance you place a $30 8 and your $5 come bet travels to the 8, you could if you chose use $30 [the original bet on the 8], $35 [the win off the placed 8], or $60 - $65 [the original bet + the win].

My issue is, the number which rolls dictates how much odds should be taken to at least equal the payout a place bet of the appropriate size should have paid. For instance on a $5 table if the roll is a 6/8 then the break even point is 5x odds since a $30 place pays $35 and a $5 come w/ 5x odds also pays $35, for a 5/9 it is either 4x odds or in Tunica or Biloxi it is something like 5x+ [due to the vig at the back end of a win], a 4/10 it is between 4x and 18x depending if the number is bought or if the vig is on the front or back. That being the case to take proper advantage you either need to be in a house that allows up to 20x if the vig is on the win or you could do it anywhere that offers 10x or more if the vig is up front.

Hello:

The only times I've used come bets for anything, is when the only book I had read on craps was from scoblete.. A long time ago.. He likes come bets..

After considerably more research, and after reading better books, (sharpshooter, john patrick, mad professor, and others) I think they suck, except for a long roll, with big wagers. ANd if anyone can predict when those really long rolls are coming, I am on the first flight to your casino locale.

I just frankly don't see the logic of hedging a pass line bet, unless it is $25 or more, and then a craps check will do. you already have a 2 to 1 advantage on the initial come out roll, unless you are playing crapless.

just me
pradice

I've pretty much abandoned most hedge betting. Occasionally I'll succumb to temptation, but it doesn't happen often. In the end, Hedges cost you more than they save you.

This is seldom used....The PROBABILITY FACTOR is THE GREAT HYPOTHETICALLY FACTOR will shred it to shards.......

Problem is we may not all have perfected the TOTAL CERTAINTYability to know the outcome
of any dice toss prior to it being lofted to completion...........
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There are strong opinions as to the WHY COME WAGER(s) may not the best move...........
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Hypothetically speaking..
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Let's use as an example a $5 Minimum Craps Table ..

If you have a LARGER $ amount at risk ...
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For the hypothetical story to flow YOU may or may not be THE SHOOTER it is just hypothetical
..........
THE PASS LINE IS BOX NUMBER 4

.HYPOTHETICALLY $440 INSIDE ( $100 FIVE...$120 SIX...$120 EIGHT...$100 NINE )*

* We'll leave wagers on the BOX # FOUR & BOX NUMBER TEN out of this scenario for now.......*
.....
Once the Pass Line is established...ANYTHING MAY HAPPEN..........
...
Should an ill timed inconvenient 7 be tossed ...you will have the need to suck it up and soldier on..
....
THE SEVEN SHOWING IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY some 17% or near 18 %....SO DEAL WITH IT....
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This is one way to DEAL WITH IT......

Make a COME WAGER of $5 ( table minimum)
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For the purpose of this post THE DECISION of the ROLL is BOX # 5....
THE DEALER MUST MOVE THE $5 COME to the BOX 5 and PAY $140....
You may choose to PLACE ODDS... OR you may elect to not place ODDS

Since there are options....Let's choose to BRING OUR WAGER DOWN and not place ODDS...
(all around the CRAPS PIT is collective SHOCK....SILENCE....SNICKERS....and DISMAY.......)

PLACE a single $5 chip on the COME WAGER AREA...
( THE CROWD MURMURS,SNORTS, SNICKERS..and looks on in shocked DISMAY )
.
NEXT ROLL OF THE DICE......THE BOX NUMBER EIGHT SHOWS...$5 RED CHIP goes to the 8...
You instruct the dealer DOWN ZERO ODDS and you further instruct the DEALER to
REDUCE your $120 SIX to $6 and your $100 NINE to $5
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You now have $22 INSIDE AT RISK
and have locked up your $440 plus your WINNINGS...$280 minus YOUR $22 at RISK
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YOU are PLUS $258( PLUS P/L IF ANY ) and still in the DOG FIGHT................
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I like using THE COME WAGER at this juncture because the DEALER PERSONS seem to not
grumble about the effort involved TAKING DOWN these wagers..........
>>>>>><<<<<<<<
What if the BOX NUMBER 4 or BOX NUMBER 10 were to show: You inquire
.
There you have options.........I let the $5 on the # 4 stand with no odds
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You could REDUCE YOUR $$$$ AT RISK or NOT
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My choice is to make a second $5 COME WAGER......and follow MY WAGER PLAN.....

Should THE BOX NUMBER TEN SHOW ..
..My choice is as with the BOX # 4 let the $5 on the TEN stand no ODDS
..
Should I have $5 on each the #4 & # 10 I then would reduce my $440 inside to $32 INSIDE ....
.
Now there is the choice to play your game with PLACE WAGERS and elect LEVEL WAGERS or a PROGRESSION / REDUCTION of your liking.........OR SHOULD YOU FEEL SO INCLINED continue
making COME WAGERS selecting to INCREASE the $$ AT RISK as the hand progresses.....
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WHAT IF A HORN NUMBER SHOWS MR Wild Child
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My choice is to treat it as just another roll and proceed with MY GAME PLAN.....
....
BUT YOU JUMPED RIGHT IN AFTER THE POINT WAS ESTABLISHED..
A Point Seven Out would have given you a LOSS...It would ..The SEVEN has a 17%or near 18%
chance of showing on ANY AND ALL DICE TOSSES...It is an individual event....
.
The 7 happens ....I am willing to chance that there MAY BE PROFIT MADE prior to
a SEVEN OUT on ROLL NUMBER SIX...The dice have to roll two,three,four and every roll in the count
to reach the FORTY,FIFTY,...........EIGHTY DREAM HAND YOU WANT TO BE THERE.....

Often the same people who shun COME WAGER(s) make Pass LINE with ODDS
rather than PLACE WAGER the PASS LINE....Seems the same logic would apply to both....
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If you are not THE SHOOTER,why would you even consider the P/L
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The P/L and COME WAGERS are CONTRACT WAGERS.....
You can make a case against both....
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My thoughts ,as long as YOU are COMFORTABLE in knowing THE RISKS
.
then
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PLAY IN YOUR COMFORT ZONE.............


Just me saying

W C
edited to correct an AFTER MY BED TIME MATH ERROR

The problem I see with hedge bets in general and deciding to use a come bet as a hedge in particular has to do with the underlying math on that hedge. Lets say you decide you want to use a craps check as a hedge on a comeout roll [as opposed to using it because you intended to roll a 2,3, or 12] and the table you opt to do it on is a $15 table [since Cherokee seems to love the damned things] you decide to take a $2 any craps bet, it limits your loss to $1 should a craps number roll. Once you examine the math behind it you wagered an amount equal to 13.33% of your initial PL to insure that something that occurs 11% of the time doesn't adversely impact you... then once you have that $15 safely established you fear a PSO so in an effort to protect it and break even you wager an amount equal to 100% of your PL and in theory hedge that with an any craps as well... so to protect $15 you have placed a total of $19 extra dollars in harms way, not to win but rather to not lose. Ok, look at the math behind your new hedge of a come bet, to protect against a 16.66% occurrence you doubled your exposure on the 3rd roll should the 2nd one not be a 7. Eventually the only answer in a hedge that you could possibly arrive at is have an unlimited bankroll in a casino that allows unlimited bets and then play a martingale so that you win at least a dollar all the while cycling 10s of thousands to make it? The problem is first you probably don't have deep enough pockets that it could ever work, and secondly the casino insures that even if you did you will hit a table max first [by the 10th or 11th bet or before] and still crash and burn no matter how much more you could have hedged. Obviously that is a worst case scenario of hedging to win, but the issue still becomes that you are exposing a higher % of money to cover a lower percentage of risk than what your returns would bear out. Most hedge bets are like a payday loan, they sound great if you think you need them and if they get you through a tough spot... but once you do the math you realize they put you in a tighter spot than you started with. In our scenario a moment ago you would lose 11 cents on average every time you made that any craps bet, no huge loss but in a weekend you could easily have made that bet 10x per hour or more... so figure you do it 100 - 150x in a weekend, do that for 4 trips and you could have bought that $42 New York Strip at Ruth's Chris Steak House, add in the lost hedge come bet and odds are you could buy the whole meal for you and 1 or 2 companions.

Lets say you opt out of just the any craps hedge, you should hit a 7/11 2x as many times as the 2/3/12 so the hedge that insured you'd only lose $4 across 36 CO rolls [on average excluding variance] kept you from winning $120 - $60 = $60 on the CO. Obviously that does nothing about the other $360 that became a point, but I don't really see doubling down on your risk just to try to break even as ever being anything but a slow miserable way to go broke. As Heavy says "In the end, Hedges cost you more than they save you."

OK thanks for the further explanation of the place/come/place bit.

I'm in agreement with hedging. Just don't like how you are effectively compounding the house edge against yourself in doing so.

L S
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Those COME OUT SEVENS on the 2Nd,3Rd and any other subsequent C/O
just kill your COME WAGER having traveled to a BOX NUMBER.......
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also it brings a tear to my eyes the times I have tossed a C/O 7 WOTCO for P/L two or three...

W C

I will often use a come strategy when I am shooting. It's a good way to grind a win out when you are at an emptier table and can get the dice often. It's also not a bad strategy to use when you find the table limits a bit higher than you would like.

They way I do it may sound a little crazy but it's been very effective for me, though it's rare to get a large win. I basically continuous come bet and do not take any odds. If I throw a crap number and lose a come bet (or pass line after a point) during any one hand I will partially hedge my remaining come bets on that hand...$1 any to $10. I will also lay or partially lay numbers to lock up profits or reduce exposure (the only way to "regress" or "take down" a come bet. If I decide to stay up I will eventually start placing odds as profits build.

Like I said, it sounds a bit crazy but I've put it through a ton of trials at home and the casino and it's been a winner for me. I have no idea what the "house edge" is with the potential hedge on the any craps or the lay bets. But I think it works because the bulk of my rolls or anyone's for that matter are short or medium in length and I lose little to nothing on the short rolls and the medium length rolls turn a decent profit. I've only seen one other person use a similar strategy and when I saw it I thought man that is dumb. But I started goofing around with it at home and it kept winning so I changed my mind and in general I think that hedging is bad.