My chickenshipt version of Dave's Don't (and a trip report)
Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:26 am
I might should have put this in the 'Trip Report' forum, but since I'm gonna detail a betting scheme, I thought I'd list it here for newbies to the Don't side looking for a grind with some 'potential'...
I played early in the morning on Tuesday. At 0430, I joined a table of 6 shooters. That violates my rule of no more than 4 other shooters, but I had two 'excuses' for staying... it was 0430--usually the table thins out between 0400-0500. Also, I had a commitment at home later in the morning, and I didn't wanna just drive down and skip the table completely.
I got killed using Dave's Don't... $10 Don't bets with $30 Lays. When two box numbers are lost, remove the Lay portion of any remaining bets and wait out the shooter with the flat-bet Don'ts. I ran into 5 consecutive buzzsaw shooters, none of whom had a hand longer than 10 throws. (I was counting.) I kept betting $10 w/$30 odds because I just couldn't believe they could all repeat numbers. I got down beyond my loss limit in one rotation of shooters. The rest of the trip summary is equally miserable, but that table cycle got me to thinking, and I used a modified betting scheme yesterday (THU) with good results.
I bet $10 on the DC only. The exception is, I'll bet $10 on the DP bar when I have 4 Don't bets working, and the corresponding inside numbers have Lays against them (however many Lays there happen to be--it could be as few as two, and as many as four in my personal 'Lay' scheme--see below; I got a little ahead of my description here).
When each $10 bet travels from the DC, I re-bet the DC. When 4 DC bets have survived, I'll Lay $30 odds on every inside number (no Lays on 4/10), and bet another $10 DC. If that last DC travels to an inside number, I'll Lay on it. If it's a 4/10, I won't--your preference--even though the odds are true, I just don't like the math (having to repeat twice to recoup a single loss). If any number is lost with its' Lay bet ('down behind'), then I'll remove all the rest of the Lay bets--that should leave me with at least 4 Don't flat bets, and if I'm lucky, regression to the grind mode will pay $40 and break even for the "down behind" loss.
The reason I like this methodology of betting the Lay bets late is that I'm into the real "thin" percentages for a RR's chance to continue into longer rolls, and at worst from a "Don't" perspective, my Lays aren't exposed to repeaters until the RR hits a 4th different box number, when s/he's more likely to SO than continue the hand.
Sometimes the best I could do with this scheme was break even-- intermittent 11's would cause me to re-up and the 7 would come soon enough that I'd only get 2-3 $10 Don'ts bet. When the table's choppy though, and I could 'survive' to a fourth $10 DC, usually, I'd profit anywhere between $60-140 on a shooter with minimal "exposure". Of course there were the times when I'd have to remove the surviving Lays, and then my 'theoretical' maximum loss (w/ no 11's rolled) on a single shooter would be $80, but that never happened; though I did lose $60 a couple times-- $10 w/$30 odds lost and a couple subsequent $10 DCs lost before the 7 appeared. This method is not nearly as 'volatile' requiring me to absorb repeated lost $10/$30 Lays before the quick 7 (just after my second repeater 'down behind').
I played early in the morning on Tuesday. At 0430, I joined a table of 6 shooters. That violates my rule of no more than 4 other shooters, but I had two 'excuses' for staying... it was 0430--usually the table thins out between 0400-0500. Also, I had a commitment at home later in the morning, and I didn't wanna just drive down and skip the table completely.
I got killed using Dave's Don't... $10 Don't bets with $30 Lays. When two box numbers are lost, remove the Lay portion of any remaining bets and wait out the shooter with the flat-bet Don'ts. I ran into 5 consecutive buzzsaw shooters, none of whom had a hand longer than 10 throws. (I was counting.) I kept betting $10 w/$30 odds because I just couldn't believe they could all repeat numbers. I got down beyond my loss limit in one rotation of shooters. The rest of the trip summary is equally miserable, but that table cycle got me to thinking, and I used a modified betting scheme yesterday (THU) with good results.
I bet $10 on the DC only. The exception is, I'll bet $10 on the DP bar when I have 4 Don't bets working, and the corresponding inside numbers have Lays against them (however many Lays there happen to be--it could be as few as two, and as many as four in my personal 'Lay' scheme--see below; I got a little ahead of my description here).
When each $10 bet travels from the DC, I re-bet the DC. When 4 DC bets have survived, I'll Lay $30 odds on every inside number (no Lays on 4/10), and bet another $10 DC. If that last DC travels to an inside number, I'll Lay on it. If it's a 4/10, I won't--your preference--even though the odds are true, I just don't like the math (having to repeat twice to recoup a single loss). If any number is lost with its' Lay bet ('down behind'), then I'll remove all the rest of the Lay bets--that should leave me with at least 4 Don't flat bets, and if I'm lucky, regression to the grind mode will pay $40 and break even for the "down behind" loss.
The reason I like this methodology of betting the Lay bets late is that I'm into the real "thin" percentages for a RR's chance to continue into longer rolls, and at worst from a "Don't" perspective, my Lays aren't exposed to repeaters until the RR hits a 4th different box number, when s/he's more likely to SO than continue the hand.
Sometimes the best I could do with this scheme was break even-- intermittent 11's would cause me to re-up and the 7 would come soon enough that I'd only get 2-3 $10 Don'ts bet. When the table's choppy though, and I could 'survive' to a fourth $10 DC, usually, I'd profit anywhere between $60-140 on a shooter with minimal "exposure". Of course there were the times when I'd have to remove the surviving Lays, and then my 'theoretical' maximum loss (w/ no 11's rolled) on a single shooter would be $80, but that never happened; though I did lose $60 a couple times-- $10 w/$30 odds lost and a couple subsequent $10 DCs lost before the 7 appeared. This method is not nearly as 'volatile' requiring me to absorb repeated lost $10/$30 Lays before the quick 7 (just after my second repeater 'down behind').