Buying the 4 & 10

[bryguyUCLA05]

Hey guys,

Brief background on myself. I get out to Vegas from LA about 4 times a year, usually with a group of close friends. I spend a considerable amount of time playing craps. I always use the all 7's on my CO roll and then use 3V when the point has been established.

I am returning to Vegas for a guys trip on the 31st. I was considering switching to the 2V set after setting the point and then buying the 10 and/or 4 rather than placing the 6 and/or 8. Obviously there is more exposure in terms of the amount of money i have on the table and placing the 6/8 has a lower house edge, however, the 2V set has only two ways to make a 7 and buying the 4/10 would seem to be a bit more profitable should more roll be a consistent one.

I am not planning on using this betting pattern for any RRs, just on my own hands.

Thoughts/experiences of others with buying the 4 and the 10 and using the 2V set in an attempt to try to hit the 4 and 10 more consistently.

-BryguyUCLA-

"It's what you learn after you know it all that counts"

- John R. Wooden -

[dork]

I dunno... I think you've gotta be a pretty damn good DI to set and bet the 2v with an eye only on winning from the 4/10. You state that the 2v set "2V set has only two ways to make a 7" but that's no different from the 3v set. If you're pounding the 6/8 with the 3v then sure, it sounds like a good play. On the other hand, I'd bet most guys who think they're DI's still roll vastly higher groups of inside numbers (and 6's and 8's) than 4's and 10's.

I'd guess most guys set the 2v often, but only when they're looking to make the point (and all the inside numbers are placed). I also don't see why you think that "... there is more exposure in terms of the amount of money i have on the table" if you're gonna "... buy(ing) the 10 and/or 4 rather than placing the 6 and/or 8", unless you're only placing single units on the 6/8. In that case, you're kinda comparing apples to oranges. The vig is part of the buy bet; it doesn't increase exposure. (well, okay, you stand to lose a dollar at $20, but if you win, you 'get it back') Still if the place was only one unit each on the 4 and 10, I think it'd still be a tougher way to get paid than including the 6/8 in the scheme.

[Maddog]

BryGuy, that can be a fun way to play. One thing I have found about playing this way is that I've had to commit to playing the 4/10 and exclude all other betting. When I have tried to buy the 4/10 for a little "sugar". and then play the inside numbers, my loses outpace my wins to an extent that I cannot make up. So it becomes a matter of discipline to deal with the fact that your bets don't hit that often and you need to ride out the variance. However you can win playing this way. I used this strategy at one of our seminar group session was was the leader at the end, beating out 4 other players using Do-Side strategies and 2 players with Don't-side strategies on the same table.

One thing you must be sure to understand is that a dice set is not magic. A dice set alone only provides a theoretical distribution based on combined-dice-performance. It is your toss that CREATES that combined-dice-performance, and that drives towards an increase in the theoretical results. For example I pretty much use two dice sets only, one a variation of a 3V set, the other a variation of the 2V set. When I am on, my 2V set spins off extra eights, a few more 10's and about the regular/expected amount of 4's. So you need to verify that YOUR toss creates the results you desire, before you put money on it.

The 2V set alone will not produce "more" 4's and 10's. You must have a toss that generates that probability. What the 2V set DOES do is put the theoretical distribution of 4's and 10's on an even footing with the 7, as the following chart shows:

3-4/6-1 Axial Set (2V) [tr] [td][color=Red][b]Axial Set / # Rolled[/color][/b][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...2..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...3..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...4..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...5..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...6..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...7..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...8..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...9..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]..10..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]..11..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]..12..[/color][/td] [/tr] [tr] [td][color=DarkBlue]3-4/6-1 (2V)[/color][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center][color=Red]2[/color][/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td] [/tr] Notice that the 3V set creates a theoretical distribution that favors the 6 & 8, as seen in this next chart. Because the 6&8 are already the next best probability, using a set that enhances the probability of their appearance is why many shooters favor the 3V.

1-6/2-5 Axial Set (3V) [tr] [td][color=Red][b]Axial Set / # Rolled[/color][/b][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...2..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...3..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...4..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...5..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...6..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...7..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...8..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...9..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]..10..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]..11..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]..12..[/color][/td] [/tr] [tr] [td][color=DarkBlue]1-6/2-5 (3V)[/color][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]3[/center][/td][td][center][color=Red]2[/color][/center][/td][td][center]3[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td] [/tr]
Here is the complete On-Axis theoretical distribution chart for each of the set families.
[tr] [td][color=Red][b]Axial Set / # Rolled[/color][/b][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...2..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...3..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...4..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...5..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...6..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...7..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...8..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]...9..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]..10..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]..11..[/color][/td][td][color=DarkBlue]..12..[/color][/td] [/tr] [tr] [td][color=DarkBlue]3-4/3-4 (S6)[/color][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center][color=Red]4[/color][/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td] [/tr] [tr] [td][color=DarkBlue]5-2/5-2 (P6)[/color][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center][color=Red]4[/color][/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td] [/tr] [tr] [td][color=DarkBlue]1-6/1-6 (HW)[/color][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]3[/center][/td][td][center][color=Red]4[/color][/center][/td][td][center]3[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td] [/tr] [tr] [td][color=DarkBlue]3-4/5-2 (X6)[/color][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center][color=Red]2[/color][/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td] [/tr] [tr] [td][color=DarkBlue]3-4/6-1 (2V)[/color][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center][color=Red]2[/color][/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td] [/tr] [tr] [td][color=DarkBlue]1-6/2-5 (3V)[/color][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]3[/center][/td][td][center][color=Red]2[/color][/center][/td][td][center]3[/center][/td][td][center]2[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]1[/center][/td][td][center]0[/center][/td] [/tr]

[memo]

BryGuy

I have been setting the 2V now for many years
Wish I could say it was consistent enough for me to bet, only the 4/10. My most current book from BT, at around toss 450 it said I was strong on 5,6,8, and slightly on 4. By around toss 680 it said I was strong on 10, 5,6,8, and slightly 9.
Lots of variability, but still showing inside numbers. (Notice the shifting over time)
If I bet only 4/10, there would be large swings where 4/10 would be absent or not enough to be in positive territory. You could go through some long loosing streaks.

I see that MD posted about this and his spin is slightly different from mine. It is worth noting his statement that one must have a toss that will in fact produce those numbers. Also notice what he says about discipline..
One other thing...MD...Would you make the same bets with real money, in a real casino with a bunch of assorted DI's?

Theory sounds great...There are few that have ability to gain that much of an edge on the 4/10, (or any two numbers) consistently over time. MP writes about it at length. He may post here about it. If not it should be easy to find.

Additionally, always remember....
There is only one person that I have seen with the ability to stay on axis at 50% or higher and stay there. That is Dave of
SA. Getting to 49 or 50% (and staying there) is quite an accomplishment. That means that most of us are off axis more than 50% of the time....That is where all those other sevens live.

Memo

[bryguyUCLA05]

I appreciate all of the feed back. I think the draw of buying the 4 & 10 is if you have a hand where you hit a streak of 4s and/or 10s it can be extremely profitable. As we all know, life is one long session. When I hit the tables on July 31st at Aria or Bellagio, I'll be sure to stick to placing the 6/8 and only occasionally buying the 4/10.

[heavy]

I should probably tell you that I use the V-2 quite often when I'm trying to toss sixes and eights - and the V-3 when I'm trying to toss fours and tens. The thing to remember about the six and eight is that they are "two-fers." One hit on either essentially pays for both, whereas one his on the six or eight just barely pays for one of them. All in all, I think shooting for the four and ten is a decent way to play. If you ever find yourself in the Santa Ana Star in Albuquerque where they offer free buy bets on the Four and Ten you'll find it even more attractive. Last of all, I'm much more likely to bet "Even Numbers" then "Inside Numbers" when setting the V-2. Hey, you gotta believe.

[bryguyUCLA05]

I The thing to remember about the six and eight is that they are "two-fers." One hit on either essentially pays for both, whereas one his on the six or eight just barely pays for one of them. Hey, you gotta believe.

Heavy when you said the thing to remember about the six and eight is that they are "two-fers" did you mean the four and the ten? Just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something.

[Mad Professor]

Hi TableTop,

If a highly-skilled DI had a durable SRR-rate of 11; then his PSO-rate would be 9.1% on his first point-cycle toss.

So for example...

~His hand would survive past the first point-cycle roll, on average, 90.9% of the time.

~His hand would survive past the second point-cycle roll, on average, 82.6% of the time.

~His hand would survive past the third point-cycle roll, on average, 75.1% of the time.

~His hand would survive past the fourth point-cycle roll, on average, 68.3% of the time.

~His hand would survive past the fifth point-cycle roll, on average, 62.1% of the time.

~His hand would survive past the sixth point-cycle roll, on average, 56.4% of the time.

~His hand would survive past the seventh point-cycle roll, on average, 51.3% of the time.

~His hand would survive past the eighth point-cycle roll, on average, 46.6% of the time.

...and as always when we are talking about SRR-rates, fully 88% of his point-cycles would NOT double-past his SRR-rate (not get beyond 22 p-c rolls).


MP

[heavy]

Yep, my brain was racing ahead of my fingertips on that one. Four and Ten are two-fers. Six and eight just barely pay for themselves.

[dork]

Bryguy, can you hit your desired number (from the chosen dice set) more consistently? That is to ask, are you practiced enough to defy RR statistics and skew the results in your favor, or are you considering betting the 4/10 because the odds pay better?

If you can roll more 4's or 10's than expected (using a 2v), you might try betting them, just don't start out at $20 on each end (I use '$20' because it's the minimum buy bet around here). Place the 4 and 10 for a single unit and then choose one of those numbers and parlay it 3x without taking any profits until the 3rd repeater (or even the 2nd repeater is 'big' with the 2-1 odds). Sure, you risk the single unit bet, but in theory you're still recovering some monies from the other bets (the 6/8 and remaining outside bet).