Down a Hundered - End of the World?
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2014 1:12 pm
In any game of give and take where you're betting at $10 - $50 a hand it doesn't take much of a string of bad decisions to end up down $100. Take my own semi-conservative play, for example. I always say I'll bet a six and eight on pretty much any shooter that touches the dice. In fact, in Vegas last week I made my usual bet - $18 each on the six and eight - on every shooter at the table, and even more on myself. In short order my $300 buy-in had turned into $35. I was down $265, and betting at the $18 six and eight level that is a pretty deep hole to dig your way out of. So what happened? Well, I'd already plowed through the loss limit for the session and I wasn't going to toss another buck on the table to get another $18 six and eight, so I placed the six and eight for $12 each and the five and nine for $5 each and moved on from there. On the first his on the nine I took down the $5 bet and pressed the eight to $18. Then the six rolled and I called "same bet." When the eight repeated I dropped $3 and power pressed it to $42. Later, when the five rolled I took it down and pressed the six to $30. Then I started collecting $50 for $1 on the eight. After awhile I took the six to $60, then $90, then $120, then $150, then $180. The six continued to be relatively accent. The shooter made his pass and eventually I added the other number back in as he dialed in on them - particularly the nine. When he finally sevened out my rack had grown from that last $35 to $755. All in all, it probably took less than fifteen minutes. One good hand can make up for a lot of bad ones in fairly short order.
Frequently when I read trip reports I hear players talk about getting down $100 early and the fact that it's tough to come back from that. I thought I'd chat a bit about recovery play and give you some thoughts about how to dig out of the hole.
Let's start with what is arguably the best bet on the table - the Free Odds bet. Assuming a $10 - 3x4x5x game - a game that's common enough that just about all of you can find it at one time or another. We'll also assume you are the shooter and you're going to make two passes. In those two passes we'd like to win back at least 80% of our prior loss.
A $10 Pass Line bet with max odds will pay you $70 regardless of what point you establish and win. You're almost home on the first pass. Assuming you make that pass you could come back with a $10 PL bet with single odds on your next hand and exceed your 80% recovery objective.
Let's say you are not the shooter. There are several ways you could go - depending (IMHO) on how the table trend is rolling. If the table seems to be trending warm to hot on sixes and eights you could play one-hit-and-down on the six and eight, playing at the $30 each level. Three hits and you've locked up $105. Yes, it's a terribly boring way to play. But then, most of us find work somewhat boring and this is a journeyman's way to play.
What if the table is trending toward fours and tens? Then recovery may occur even faster than with the six and eight. Plus fours and tens are "two-fers," essentially if you hit one you pay for both. Take one hit and down - or stretch it out and try for a second hit. Suddenly your $25 Buy bet has turned into $100 (less the vig).
But in most cases it's a choppy or cold table that puts you underwater. Time for a transition move to the dark side. Think in terms of a $25 DP followed by a $20 DC. Don't lay odds. Just wait for a decision. If you win both bets you're halfway home. Repeat as necessary.
Then there's the situation where you are completely out of sync with the table. You zig left - the table zags right. You know what I'm talking about. And while I'm not a fan of playing both sides of the game, there's nothing wrong with establishing a point on the Don'ts, then placing that point to guarantee a win while you're waiting for the table to settle into a trend. For example, play $20 on the Don't Pass and the ten is established as the point. Now place the ten for $15. If the ten rolls you'll win $27 on the place bet and lose $20 on the DP. Net gain $7. If the seven rolls you lose the $15 Pass Line bet but win the $20 DP. Net gain of $5. I'll let you work out the amount to bet on the inside numbers. It's not rocket science and frankly, you probably need the math exercise. The point is there's a way to "tread water" without sinking deeper into the mire, and you may find that you're gradually digging yourself out of the box.
Of course, the key to all of the above is to have sufficient bankroll to begin with - and to recognize what's happening at the table so you can bet "in the now."
If anyone else has any comeback strategies (I deliberately did NOT include stacking all of your red and white chips in the Field and parlaying them twice) we'd love to hear them. Thoughts?
Frequently when I read trip reports I hear players talk about getting down $100 early and the fact that it's tough to come back from that. I thought I'd chat a bit about recovery play and give you some thoughts about how to dig out of the hole.
Let's start with what is arguably the best bet on the table - the Free Odds bet. Assuming a $10 - 3x4x5x game - a game that's common enough that just about all of you can find it at one time or another. We'll also assume you are the shooter and you're going to make two passes. In those two passes we'd like to win back at least 80% of our prior loss.
A $10 Pass Line bet with max odds will pay you $70 regardless of what point you establish and win. You're almost home on the first pass. Assuming you make that pass you could come back with a $10 PL bet with single odds on your next hand and exceed your 80% recovery objective.
Let's say you are not the shooter. There are several ways you could go - depending (IMHO) on how the table trend is rolling. If the table seems to be trending warm to hot on sixes and eights you could play one-hit-and-down on the six and eight, playing at the $30 each level. Three hits and you've locked up $105. Yes, it's a terribly boring way to play. But then, most of us find work somewhat boring and this is a journeyman's way to play.
What if the table is trending toward fours and tens? Then recovery may occur even faster than with the six and eight. Plus fours and tens are "two-fers," essentially if you hit one you pay for both. Take one hit and down - or stretch it out and try for a second hit. Suddenly your $25 Buy bet has turned into $100 (less the vig).
But in most cases it's a choppy or cold table that puts you underwater. Time for a transition move to the dark side. Think in terms of a $25 DP followed by a $20 DC. Don't lay odds. Just wait for a decision. If you win both bets you're halfway home. Repeat as necessary.
Then there's the situation where you are completely out of sync with the table. You zig left - the table zags right. You know what I'm talking about. And while I'm not a fan of playing both sides of the game, there's nothing wrong with establishing a point on the Don'ts, then placing that point to guarantee a win while you're waiting for the table to settle into a trend. For example, play $20 on the Don't Pass and the ten is established as the point. Now place the ten for $15. If the ten rolls you'll win $27 on the place bet and lose $20 on the DP. Net gain $7. If the seven rolls you lose the $15 Pass Line bet but win the $20 DP. Net gain of $5. I'll let you work out the amount to bet on the inside numbers. It's not rocket science and frankly, you probably need the math exercise. The point is there's a way to "tread water" without sinking deeper into the mire, and you may find that you're gradually digging yourself out of the box.
Of course, the key to all of the above is to have sufficient bankroll to begin with - and to recognize what's happening at the table so you can bet "in the now."
If anyone else has any comeback strategies (I deliberately did NOT include stacking all of your red and white chips in the Field and parlaying them twice) we'd love to hear them. Thoughts?
This is the question.