Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

when i was at cherokee this week i saw this asian lady for 2nd time at cherokee. she always was at the same postion at the table stick left. she laid the 10 for $200 and put $10 on passline and dont pass when shooting. she was very good and made a lot of numbers but never the 10 when i was there. when someone else had the dice she did not bet at all. her rack always had approx $5000 in chips when i was there, but i never saw what she bought in for. i have seen people lay numbers before, but usually have place bets to go along with lay bet. she played the same way both times i was there and seem to do very well. i thought it was odd to only make a laybet to be such a good shooter and the pass and dont pass cancelled each other out. Has anyone seen or played this way before? i have always been curious what strategies people use and how successful they are with it. advdel77

Two things you should notice:

1.) Is she just laying the 10 on the come out, than off the rest of the way?

2.) Does she look like she's DI'ing, and if so what set is she using?

You get these 2 answers and that will explain a lot!

Tonybugs

she leaves 10 up until seven out. she was using parallel sixes when shooting advdel77

I think that's just her pattern. A lot of people have a betting pattern. It's human nature to notice when someone else's pattern wins and then start to wonder if that pattern is an overall winning play worth trying. What we usually don't notice is when a pattern fails. Only the bettor really knows how many times that pattern won/lost and the overall result. I remember once being amazed by a guy that won huge at roulette. He had three $2000 wins in a row. When he left I said to the dealer "Wow, he did great." The dealer said "Yeah he did good today, but he lost $10k on my shift yesterday and was still playing when I left."

Most every pattern is simply a matter of deciding which number is your hero and which is your poison. What triggers bets on and what triggers bets off. So her pattern makes the seven her hero and a 10 her poison. The 12 is also poison on the come-out but only for $10. There isn't a pattern that doesn't make SOME number(s) poison. And the odds of the game are such that over time any pattern will slowly lose. In her case on average for every two times she wins she will lose once. +$98 +$98 - $200. She hopes for a streak of no 10s. If she get's a hero streak of 4 wins she racks $392. If she gets a poison streak of 2 losses she loses $400. I've seen a lot of people dig a DEEP hole with a no 4 or no 10 strategy. Their no-4 bets win for a while and they start to believe they have an edge. The seven will surely come before a streak of 4/10s. THe seven always prevails. But then the seven takes a nap for just one hand. All of a sudden they just lost $1000 on a streak of five 10s.

One of the big keys to winning is to know when to stop playing. Streaks are going to happen for and against your chosen pattern. Quit after a good streak and lock up a win. Quit immediately when you hit your loss limit off a bad streak to limit losses. In my opinion that pattern of good discipline matters more than DI. DI is fleeting. We never know for sure when our influence will shine through. Betting discipline is totally in our control to manage at every session. Good betting discipline allows us to be at the table when our DI finally cuts through.

freak

Well said...

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