Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I was thinkin' about MP's counsel on 'leveraging strong but only early against the "best opportunity" '-- that's my paraphrasing for his suggestion (essentially) that a 7 SSR roller should be aggressively regressed by the 3rd box number rolled.

Assuming a press one, take one betting scheme, (if we take his numbers as gospel [and I have no reason whatsoever to doubt him]) a 7.0 SSR shooter rolls Seven-out 54% of the time by the 4th roll. That means that 46% of those pressed-up hands won’t fully pay for themselves before they end. I dunno how much difference a full regression makes to those percentages, but--I got to thinkin'...those percentages are scary; I'm glad I discovered his posts and the theory of ISR's.

So if we start with an MP-$204 Across, we should have a minimum profit of ~$50 if we regress to $44 Inside after the second $50 payoff. Which got me to extrapolatin'...

What if we were (nearly) alone at the table, and bet the ATS for say, 2-2-2, with a $5 PL. CO roll is 6. Bet "$204 Across" (actually, $162 Across, and $40 PL Odds). Take two hits for $49 each, and then TAKE DOWN all place bets, reduce the PL Odds to say, $10. The total exposure at that point would be ~$21. We'd be playing to either make the point and/or fulfill the ATS bet.

Minimum profit would be $78 per hand. I know it doesn't sound like much, but scaled, x2 or x3, that figure could balloon to ~$156 or ~$234 per hand with two roll's exposure; that TOTAL regression would leave only $21 risked (especially if we don't scale the post-ISR PL Odds bet to our x2 or x3 $204 strategy). A theoretical profit of ~$156 per hand exposing only ~$21 against the PL & Odds and the ATS play...

How would the casino react to a player playing for "big kills" in the first two paying rolls and essentially quitting only to play for the long odds ATS payoff? Would they care? Turn up the heat in whatever manner they could conjure? Prohibit play?

(I was gonna try it out today but I forgot. I was up $220 from the day before when I shot this morning, and reflexively called out 'reduce me to $26 Across'. I let it go because I was ahead, and because the dealer had already set the bets by the time I realized what I'd done. Yeah, a lousy reason, but I was ahead, and thought I'd 'gamble'.)

But I'd sure like ya'lls opinions on this idea and the possible 'casino reaction'.

I think this is a pretty good play. Better to over than under-regress in the long run. If you do start hitting points then rebuild up and out. You need those big wins from the long rolls to make up for the PSOs. They (the casino) won't care because you'll hit PSOs or PPSOs about 30% of the time.

With an SRR of 7.0 your average hand should stretch to around 10 rolls. I'd consider stretching out your play a bit, but as Irish has noted - properly sizing bets relative to your bankroll is the correct advantage method of betting. With that said - I still use regressions in an effort to reduce volatility. It is what it is.

Thanks very much, Gents! Your combined comments are like an epiphany. It makes real sense now, how a regression fits with long-term play vs. the PSO's. I haven't experienced a real dry spell yet... I've suffered through one PSO but recovered in the same session (ironically, in light of my question--"$204 Across" down to $54 Across, etc.). The only time I've had consecutive PSO's I walked; that's my loss limit--$400. During the next session, I recovered $300, so my "dry spell PSO's" haven't been session-to-session (-to-session). I know someday I'll face that, and have already experienced the regressed bets paying off big, which should have told me that that was the method to contending with the PSO's.

Thank you!

ps. Heavy... have you done this a while? I'd guesstimate my hands average just about 10 rolls. I prolly should keep track on paper at the casino but I don't (yet). I still use the chips-in-the-rack system, and 10 sounds about right.

On a recent trip to Florida, I war gamed the MP204 with Wizard. We came up with something that pretty much suits my play.
I call it the 204 MP style, with a Wizard spin and a gambler's nod.

Set up the 204, minus the point. Pass line, full odds. Take three hits, then regress to 162, 169, or 179, depending on the point. (Golden)
Average hand, I am up ten bucks or so, with three units across, each box number. (I am a 4/10 addict...think: gambler)
I will take three more hits at that level, (78-81), then begin pressing to the 49 dollar payout level. (Double Golden)

It makes sense, but I still am surprised at how many hands will end in that six hit window. That is why I will take three hits with a 21 or 27 dollar payout. It puts me up about a hundred dollars each hand, depending on how the numbers fall. It does wonders for my mindset.
Course PSO etc. hurt. Ouch! And that is how I frame it...Ouch, not, end of the world.

As I go through my presses, there are usually several hits that pay 49. This is a wonderful place to live. My signal to press further is when I have returned to the 204 level. Press 4/10 like crazy, but a more moderate schedule inside numbers...I am not quite as daring as Gargoil.

To answer the question about casino reaction...
There is none.
They like the bet, and once the dealers see what you are doing, they like it also. In fact, I get a lot of positive remarks from dealers. It does tend to confuse at first explanation, but by now, I can pretty much see where any confusion exists and clear it up.
I also make a dealer bet when I make my first regression...That goes a long way.

Memo

Memo, would you go into more detail about your regression after three hits?

I don't understand... you say "Take three hits, then regress to 162, 169, or 179, depending on the point. (Golden)"--shouldn't it read "...then regress from 162, 169, or 179..."?

If I'm correct, what are your place bets after the regression? I think they're 3-unit bets, making the 162/169/179 a regression to 78/81/81, yes?

If you take three payoffs at 78/81 Across, the approximate winnings at PPPPPSO are ~$93, but the PPSO is just barely on the negative money side (~ -$12), is that right? My math for the PPSO comes out this way if I understand your system:

(ISR profit [98]) minus (Across Regression [78/81]) minus (PL & Odds[25/30/40]) translates to
($98) minus ($78) minus ( ~$32)

My $204 is similar but I think your odds are different... we're allowed 10x odds, so I play 25, 30, 40 on the 4/10, 5/9, and 6/8 in order to make ~$50 if the point is made. On a "good roll" past 5 numbers, you're makin' a helluva lot more money than I, but the short rolls aren't very productive, which is where I'm "guaranteed" (what PSO?!??). Maybe if I get off the x6's, and throw less trash... hmmmm.

ps. Are you ex-LEO? PM me on that if A-firm. Thanks again

Dork,

Sorry, and sorry

Have not been able to return to boards till now so left things dangling..

I don't understand... you say "Take three hits, then regress to 162, 169, or 179, depending on the point. (Golden)"--shouldn't it read "...then regress from 162, 169, or 179..."?

If I'm correct, what are your place bets after the regression? I think they're 3-unit bets, making the 162/169/179 a regression to 78/81/81, yes?

I Was in a hurry when posting, so I did a poor job of it
You are correct, my regression is 78 and 81..three units. I feel Golden at that point. No matter what I have made profit, and have solid bets out there working for me. Three more hits at that level and I am up nearly one hundred....Pretty much the way you described. That is when I will begin to press

I am trying to squeeze as much out of those first few rolls during the time when most hands will end. If it progresses, you are in great position. When to press, after that, and how fast is variable.
I believe MP talks about twice a persons SRR. You could wait for 12-14 rolls. I usually wait till all the box numbers are at the 204 level....Unless I am banging one over and over, in which case I will press that one right away. Sometimes, I will get there, but my toss doesn't feel that solid. I will hoover at the 204 level. I like getting 50 for 1 over and over...And that original 204 is long paid for.

Memo