Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Hey gang,

fairly new around here so apologies off the bat if this is in the wrong section... I'm still sifting through the massive amounts of great reads here on the forum.

I've only been shooting dice for a couple years and only recently consider myself better then the average Joe. I've been on a good streak lately (6 months) but I believe my take home profits could be waaay better if I knew a better betting strategy. So hence the post...

For the last 4 months or so I've been playing pretty consistently at the River Cree in Edmonton. On average my rolls last 12 throws (that's including non-box numbers). I've tried some of the regression methods that I've read here... lately betting 10 units inside then down to 2 units across after a hit. I usually give myself 4 throws to hit the 10 unit bet before dropping down to 1. works well enough but my real issue is how to progress after hitting the 10 unit bet then dropping down to 2 across? Press one each hit? Parley?

To add to my dilemma, I love playing the hardways because I seem to hit them more frequently that most. Lately I've been playing a nickle on each then parleying the winnings and looking for a second hit. Yesterday, for example, I hit the parley 3 times in one role, which pays off nicely.

So what I'm looking for is a betting strategy that would take advantage of my strong rolls and incorporate hardway bets... or something along those lines. They also have the fire bet... hit it for 4 points twice yesterday and 3 points 5 times. I only play a nickle on the fire... should I bet more or less?

Appreciate the input!

The other MP...

I had a Pro Team coach advise me once on the 6/8 combo bet. What this is is maximizing the 6/8 via the HW bet but uses the soft PB place bets for this win. Their theory is the 6/8 will never get you to a max bet potential before the 5/9 of 4 10. If you were to take a $12 6 or 8 and power press it, it takes you about 12 hits. Thats gonna almost impossible during a hand being the 6 or 8 will dominate as your CO point. So here is what they do to offset this slow pace up the progression.

Heres how it works...Place bet $6/8 say for $12 each. Lets say you hit the Six 5 times (easy,easy,hard,easy and hard. If you did a press collect, press mode, You would be Collecting $14, then Press to $24, then collect $28, then press to $48, then collect $54. So you collected around $100 with $48 still in action in case roll continues.

Pro Team Way of doing same roll. If Say your first hit on the 6 is soft, payout is $14. You press $6 to $18 and put remaining $8 on the H6. Your goal is for 1 HW hit. Anything beyond that is a bonus. Lets say you throw it soft again. Pays $21, You press $6 to $24 and put remaining $15 on H6. Say your 3rd hit on the 6 is a H6. $15 x 10 =$150 , payout is 135 + 28 = $163. Take 1/3 the payout of HW and Press HW $55. Take the other 1/3 and press Place bet to $78 now and take last 1/3 $55 and put in rack.

At this point your goal is 1 more HW hit. This is better than trying to hit the Hw BTB before hitting it soft. You are essentially trying to make money on roll from payouts on the 4,5,9,and 10 and use 6/8 payouts to press HW in hopes of 1-2 HW hits during your roll that do NOT have to be back to back. Back to the roll. Next six is easy so PB pays $91, so press PB up $12 to $90 and put remaining $79 on H6. Next 6 is hard. You not have converted a $12 original 6 to a payout of $790 +105 + what you racked earlier. Almost $1000 compared to $100 the other way... DO same for the 8.

Hope this helps

VDC

Actually, we'd need a bit more info. What is the unit size, for example? What is your average session buy-in. How does that compare with your trip bankroll. What is your win goal and loss limit? Are there any numbers you toss with more frequency than others. For example, do you toss more nines than the math of the game says you should? Are you betting those numbers, just the six and eight, just the inside, even numbers, outside numbers, etc. Basic kind of stuff.

Looks like you are doing a five-to-one regression which is about the correct size regression IMHO if you're going to take that approach. However, if you have an advantage over the dice then the mathematically correct way to play is to have a correct kelly-sized bet and not reduce or increase that bet unless your base bankroll changes (you only bet a percentage of your bankroll commensurate to your edge over the game).

With that said, if I knew I averaged a 12 roll hand and wanted to incorporate a regression then I'd push it out farther than then I'd probably be looking at keeping my action up longer one hit. Depending, of course, on what numbers you are betting. I agree with Luxlogs that the six and eight should typically be bet in pairs. That does not mean that they have to be pressed in pairs - or regressed as a pair. If the six is hitting and the eight is sleeping then just take the eight down.

I am a fan of pressing the four and ten somewhat aggressively when they're coming. However, we don't know if you routinely throw a lot of fours or tens.

My take on the hardways - dedicate a certain percentage of your bankroll to hardway play. For example - $20 on a $400 buy in. Put those chips in the back rail. Bet them for a buck each. Don't replace them if they fall. Parlay the first hit. Press the second. Something like that. All hardway wins go in the back rack with your initial $20. If you run out of chips in the back rack then you're through betting the hardways for that session.

By the way - you did indeed post in the right sub-board. THANKS!

Thanks guys!

VDC - thanks for the tips/strategy. Had a few hours today to kill so hit the table and tried out your method with the 6/8. Very effective to say the least. Don't think I had back to back HW's at all so my previous method would have netted me zero. But using your method I easily netted over 600 in HW's alone.

Heavy - I will try and answer your questions below:

1. Unit size - 5$
2. Avg. session buy in - 1200$
3. Trip bankroll - 1800-2500$
4. Win goal/Loss Limit - Not yet established. Sometimes I walk with 2000$ in winnings, sometimes 100$. Sometimes I lose 100$, sometimes I lose 1000$
5. Frequent numbers - unknown. I don't track my individual tosses yet, just the total number of tosses. I am unsure of how to go about tracking this at a casino... pen/paper?
6. Betting strategy that I used today:
- 5$ PL, 1$ Any, 5$ fire bet
- Point established, place 10 units across (50$ 4,5,9,10, 60$ 6,8) plus up my PL by 5$ and max odds (x2)
- Attempt to hit box number/point within 4 tosses. If/when I get a hit, drop down to 2 units inside.
- From here I used VDC's suggestion. Press by one each hit and extra change from 6/8 went to the HW.
- Would also buy the 4/10 once I was up over 100$ for 20$ each.
- I was also pressing the 4/10 aggressively on every hit. I find using the hardway set I hit alot of 3/1's.

Thanks.

The other MP

MasterP13

Once described as Dice Control , the terminology was restated as Dice Influence

There is ongoing debate as to,in reality , the effectiveness Dice Influenced toss.......
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Approached as a skill,D I takes practice as would,bowling,golf,darts,horse shoes,baseball,hand granades ( I mentioned horseshoes to inject humor).......

To practice tossing dice with a degree of influence usuaslly has a cost involved.
..Your time and effort for a start
..You may want to record the results so as to benchmark progress.
..You may need invest in casino quality dice...
..If you are going to targer practice,you may be in need of a target..
..Simulating a dice table in distance,surface,back wall,railing may help.
...
Then the dedication to practice tossing .....
.
The actual toss may be broken down to a number of elements.
.
Given enough trials at tossing,you could document what technique works best for you and go on from there...
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There are a number of approaches to how much one choices to replicate an actual casino craps table....All that can be from tossing two dice into a dresser draw to a practice station/rig to actually owning a personal casino quality dice table..........After some practice at home , one may wish to compare their performance in a gambling hall ( casino craps pit ) to observe how simular one experiences results in both enviroments.......
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The above is just me saying and others may say differently

Welcome aboard. Stick around and let us know how goes it.

Wild Child

MasterP13 wrote:Thanks guys!

VDC - thanks for the tips/strategy. Had a few hours today to kill so hit the table and tried out your method with the 6/8. Very effective to say the least. Don't think I had back to back HW's at all so my previous method would have netted me zero. But using your method I easily netted over 600 in HW's alone.

Awesome. I tell you, its saved me at times when the session has gone south, just hitting a decent hand and banging 2 HW with this mild progression up with change going back to the HW has worked miracles in recovery of a shitty session. This is one you can use on others you know can bang hard ways too.

One of these days ill do a blow by blow on a roll of mine using the 6/8 strategy as I've been getting questions in PMs from others... so maybe a more detailed script on how its played out. Its really not that difficult, its just a matter of following the plan. When you see the dividend based off dividends from just press/collect, its not even close longterm....