Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I just lost close to $200 betting PL only on my own hands, just trying to see what i get if i stop tracking my rolls in a notepad and count them in my mind instead (I think I have very serious left brain vs right brain problem). If i bet PL, I would get an extremely short hand. As soon as I switched to the don'ts, I would knock myself off on comeouts and start making points like crazy.

Any hedging systems for that scenario, if you only want to see what kind of rolls you get on that new table and break more or less even? $10 PL and $11 the dont's wouldn't cut it where I play. I thought sticking to PL would be the safest bet, but it looks like not in my book.

In your scenario, I would try to spot the trend and pounce. If it is way too choppy and no way to catch fire, I would give it three tries before I'd embrace Heavy's mantra," If it ain't fun, it's time to run." I hate losing, but it's best to cut your losses and try again another day. Or, take an extended break before giving it another shot. The casino and tables should still be there.

But you didn't stick to PL. You switched to don't after a few losses. Stay the course. Exit at loss limit or win goal. Chasing and ending up always on the wrong side of the dice is the most painful way to lose for me.

Do you have a book of rolls that show you have an advantage on the pass line or do your rolls equal those of a randie?

Noah

Thanks gents,
I guess there is no safer way to bet than PL or don't pass, and one must stick to one side of the fence. That's what I did, mainly. I didn't chase my losses really. It went like this: 7-8 extremely short hands, knocking myself off, making no points. Than I think, OK, let's try the don'ts and see what happens. Of course, seven come out winner, than one point made, second point... Let's get out of here!
Next casino. Exactly same scenario. Seven-eight short hands, no points, trying the don'ts on the last hand - sevens on come outs, multiple points made.
Next casino. Same thing.

I did much worse than a randy. Down twenty units on about 25-30 mostly extra short hands, betting PL only. I think, the main reason was that I stopped tracking my rolls in a notepad this time and just counted them in my mind. Usually I track all my rolls. So, my left brain took over, because now I was tracking all my rolls in my mind. The funny thing is I did pretty well on those same tables before, mainly 10+ and 20+ hands, only a couple of short rolls per session. I guess, lesson learned - it's either track your rolls in a notepad or don't track them at all (I don't think I can do it though, I just start counting them no matter what, so it's back to a notepad for me).

I'm not sure why you think you did "much worse than a randy". You think that 7 short hands followed by a nice hand is not similar to a random event? Sounds equivalent to a random result to me. It's also possible that you could be exhibiting no influence whatsoever and toss four nice hands in a row. That's also possible in a random game. Although L and I typically use a play that has a chance to fare well in an "average" session we're learned to accept the fact that "random" does not mean "average". Random means anything - good or bad for your play - can happen on this hand. Random does work out to average over the long haul, but in any given hand anything can happen.

I think it's also true that "influenced" doesn't necessarily mean a shooter that yields above average hands. It's possible that in a string of PSOs you were actually "influencing" the outcome 50% of the time. Even in a book of 720 rolls that yielded an overall "influenced" result there are likely to be stretches where "influence" seems abundantly apparent and other stretches where it appears to be totally absent. I believe a methodical approach gives one the best chance to win. A play like the MP$204 or Dave's don't system both have a great chance of exploiting your influence, but much if not all your edge is lost if you change your play trying to "get in sync" with the hands of a session that do not appear to be showing any influence. Since influence only shows over a long stretch of time, the play must be the same (or very similar) to capitalize on the influence. MP writes about that all the time.

Hey freak, I totally agree. Don't have my notebook on me, will post the numbers later. By the way, I follow your posts with great interest.

one must stick to one side of the fence...

There's an old cowboy saying down here in Texas that goes, "He who straddles the fence gets scarred balls."

Also the other way of looking at this is that if you continue to not track your rolls and keep having short hands then you must be influencing the dice - albeit in the opposite way to desired.

The "no notebook" really can only be a red herring at this stage as your sample size is so small

Biloxa: I guess I should not post this, but it is a way to not get killed, to make a bit when you are shooting good and make a bit when you or not shooting good or on randys. That is my "One hit-can't Miss" strat. It is simple, you are always in a transition mode and you cannot lose much unless there are a mid rid of CO winners. Mine is pretty simple, Heavy enhanced it and it works at what ever level you play. It's in this site someplace or Heavy might repost both but I will not repeat as most of the site members are familiar with it. Some use it and like it, some don't but well, it is free and not a bad way to play while you are getting your feet wet and learning. SIA

right on, right on, Heavy, LondonShooter, SHOOTITALL

here are the numbers (I am almost crying while looking at them)
P stands for point made, and it was a rare occurrence; the numbers are total numbers of rolls in each hand -

Casino 1 - 2,3,7P,3,3,2,5P
Casino 2 - 2,2,5P,3,5,3,22 (no point made!)
Casino 3 - 7,6,9P,3,3,2,4,7P

Total number of rolls: 100 (wow, some round number)
Total number of hands: 22
Total number of points made: 5
Points per hand: 0.23 (63% worse than a RR - 0.63)
SRR: 4.55 (24% worse than a RR - 6)
Average hand length: 4.55 (52% worse than a RR - 9.5)
NO come out sevens in 22 hands!

It is definitely a dark side situation, but I am 200% sure if I've bet the dont’s I would've gotten just the opposite. So, my right brain was doing just the opposite of what the left brain wanted. Now I need to find a way for them to work in a tandem.

SHOOTITALL wrote:Biloxa: I guess I should not post this, but it is a way to not get killed, to make a bit when you are shooting good and make a bit when you or not shooting good or on randys. That is my "One hit-can't Miss" strat. It is simple, you are always in a transition mode and you cannot lose much unless there are a mid rid of CO winners. Mine is pretty simple, Heavy enhanced it and it works at what ever level you play. It's in this site someplace or Heavy might repost both but I will not repeat as most of the site members are familiar with it. Some use it and like it, some don't but well, it is free and not a bad way to play while you are getting your feet wet and learning. SIA

hey SHOOTITALL, thanks,
I am familiar with the strategy and use it sometimes, but not on myself - my average points in a live casino situation is 1.2, that's in theory like 50% advantage over the house. So the pass line with full odds i guess is the best house edge wise for me and worked just fine before (while I've used the notepad for tracking). I would never think I could lose so much on PL only. It was always some kind of at least break even bet for me.

May be the next time i get killed like this doing some testing, I should use your $12DP, $12 6&8 ea on myself. For now I cannot run the numbers above through it and see what i get in comparison to a naked PL, as I haven't recorded the actual rolls, so I don't know how many 6&8's I got.

Sometimes you just wont sync up. In my trip reports I have noted two occasions were my best hand came while shooting from the donts. Could not roll a 7 was $90 down then just transitioned, but didn't change set and rolled to up $400ish. After that the demons were gone and the 2v was back working for the next hands?

Your stats are indeed dreadful, but you only lost $200. Accepting a modest loss is a win sometimes. Dont feel bad Ive seen a table full of DI types roll about the same stats.

Casino 1 - 2,3,7P,3,3,2,5P
Casino 2 - 2,2,5P,3,5,3,22 (no point made!)
Casino 3 - 7,6,9P,3,3,2,4,7P

Not to be thumping anyone's nose or anything (Hi Frank) but the "See a horn - bet a horn" guy would have turned a tidy profit on those hands.

Hey Heavy,
Those are not the dice outcomes, those are the numbers of rolls in each hand. Yeah, I know, never seen anything like that myself. P stands for a point made on that hand.

It just went like that - Casino 1: 2 rolls and seven out, 3 rolls and seven out, 7 rolls one point made seven out, 3 rolls out, 3 rolls out, 2 rolls out... And so on

bryfromtheharbor wrote:
Your stats are indeed dreadful, but you only lost $200. Accepting a modest loss is a win sometimes. Dont feel bad Ive seen a table full of DI types roll about the same stats.

Hey bryfromtheharbor,
Right on, right on. I was more puzzled than scared, or depressed or anything like that. It was more like a scientific experiment - what happens if I just keep playing that way?
Sure I can survive $200 loss. This day was really backwards - my wife won $50 playing slots, which never happened before, ever. I cannot recall a single time she was up playing slots. Why people play those machines - beats me.

Those are not the dice outcomes, those are the numbers of rolls in each hand.

Damn. And there I was preparing to import you as a shooter for the home team. LOL.

I think SIA is right. Shoot from the Don'ts and place the six and eight. $6 Don't Pass Line bet on a $5 table with $6 each on the six and eight. Put it on auto pilot and see if you can get dialed in. In a $10 game double the above amounts.

Heavy wrote:

Those are not the dice outcomes, those are the numbers of rolls in each hand.

And there I was preparing to import you as a shooter for the home team. LOL.

Dahm… I knew I shouldn’t correct you. LOL.

SIA’s suggestion pushed me in the right direction. Here is the list of possible systems I found. Most of them, even probably, all of them, have some names and authors. Whenever possible, I will give a credit. Please forgive me if I don’t know the original system inventor.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ WASH BETTING SYSTEMS $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ (Beware - the house edge will still eat your money!)

1. Doey-Don’t Simple. $10 pass line / $11 don’t pass. (Couldn’t use this one, it’s not always allowed and looks really strange if you don’t bet anything else). You lose $11 on 12 comeouts, otherwise it’s +/-$1. Throw in $1 boxcar bet on comeouts to reduce volatility.

2. Don’t-Point. $12 don’t pass, place the point number for $12. $1 ea seven and eleven will reduce volatility on comeouts but will eat into your bottom line.

3. No Hit Can Miss. $12 don’t pass, place the eight for $12 (or the six, doesn’t matter). $1 ea seven and eleven will reduce volatility on comeouts but will eat into your bottom line. If the point is the six or eight, place the sister number. Every time your place bet hits, go up $6. (Submitted by London Shooter)

4. Fire a DP of $25. PB the 6 and 8 for $12 each. You have the Beruma Triangle at work. DP of $25 and two PB of $12ea. (Submitted by VegasDiceController)

5. One Hit Can’t Miss (SIA). $12 don’t pass, place the six and eight for $12 each. $1 ea red and yo-eleven will reduce volatility on comeouts but will eat into your bottom line. Every time your place bet hits, go up $6.

6. Doey-Don't as explained by Heavy, a strategy touted by the famous gaming author FS - and the Patrick System, which is essentially the flip side of the Doey-Don't as taught by John Patrick. Both of these strategies call for the player to make simultaneous Pass and Don't Pass - then Come and Don't Come bets. The idea is to protect the Pass and Come bets from the craps numbers and to protect the Don't Pass and Don't Come bets from the seven and eleven. Once the bets are established you take or lay odds. S suggests taking odds - Patrick opts for laying odds. Obviously Patrick is the smarter of the two writers, since the Don't bets have a fractional advantage over the Do's. This should come as no surprise to those of you who have followed S work through the years. Math is clearly not one of his stronger suits.

That’s all I could think of so far. Any additions are welcome.

Oh, man. Now you're going to get me started. Suffice to say that most of those hedge strategies you mention will simply add to the casino's bottom line. Fortunately, for you, I don't have time to got through the entire litany of hedge woes at this moment. If you search for hedge betting threads on the forum you might find a few of my old posts. But let me take a crack at a couple of these.

The Doey-Don't. Touted by the famous gaming author as a way to get action on the table while awaiting the five count to elapse (another gambler's fallacy in my opinion). Establish a $10 PL and a $10 DP bet plus a series of $10 Come and DC bets. When the five count is done take odds on all of the do-side bets. Sigh. The house edge on the $10 DP bet is 1.41%. The house edge on the $10 Pass bet is 1.41%. So instead of paying a 1.41% vig on a single $10 bet you are paying 1.41% (not 2.82%) on $20 action. You're exposure to the house edge is double what is is with a single bet. As for getting past the five count and then taking odds on all of the right side bets, I think John Patrick had a much better idea with his "Patrick System." Lay odds on all of the Don't bets. As for that $1 boxcars bet. You're going to lose $35 for every $30 you win over the long run.

Okay, a question/recommendation for you. Have you read Sam Grafstein's "The Dice Doctor" and John Patrick's "Advanced Craps?" They are, IMHO, must-reads for every serious craps player. You can get The Dice Doctor "used" from Amazon for .95 cents plus shipping. A used copy of the Lyle Stuart edition John's book runs anywhere from $20 - $60. But the original self-published version is available on Amazon for under $10. That's the version you want because Stuart edited out many pages of content from the original. It's the book with the green cover. Here's a link to it: http://www.amazon.com/So-You-Wanna-Be-G ... nced+craps

As far as books on dice influencing are concerned - if you want read a series of books that takes modern dice control from its infancy to today look for Dice Control for Casino Craps by Yuri Kononenko. Follow that with Sharpshooter's Get the Edge at Casino Craps. Top it all off with Mad Professor's Crapshooting Bible.

But Biloxa, what happens when your next hundred rolls are not this bad? They almost certainly won't be. Or if they are this bad, and continue to be, then you will have a massive edge over the casino that most of us could only dream about.

I think we all face periods of rolling very similar to yours when it appears we can do almost nothing right and then we all have periods where it seems we can do nothing wrong. As ever, the truth of where we are on average in the long run, lies somewhere inbetween.