Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

What about all the 2,3,and 12's that wipe out your come bet? That's gonna hurt more than the sevens.
I tinkered with that before and the biggest problem I ran into was that once all those come bets get placed now your still naked against the seven. I becomes a never ending circle with come bets

Well, wait a minute. A lot of guys bet the Pass Line. Say it's $10. Point is established. It's the nine. It's a 3-4-5X odds game so you make a correct $40 odds bet. And you like to place the six and eight because the vig is low so you toss out $30 each, thinking one hit and regress to $18 each - then progressing up and out from there. Sounds like a plan. But on roll two the seven shows. THIS is the kind of situation Irish is talking about - at least from the perspective of guys like me. I'm standing there with $110 action on the table and (insert toilet flushing sfx here). You get my drift. So I'm with him on skipping the Come Out. But I'm okay with skipping the Come bet as well. At this point I'd rather just place my six and eight - OR - if I want any sort of Come action it's DON'T COME action. But that's another strategy still. Good grief. This could go anywhere. I see what Irish is up to. Keeping the vig to a minimum. Here's the problem from my perspective - and I recognize the fact that it's not a mathematically "correct" answer. You can't spent the vig. Why? Because the juice is a percentage - not an amount. Okay, you receive less on the payout. I get that. But that's also the key. It's only extracted on a winning bet. If the bet loses - it just loses. I'd rather give up a little vig and have control over my bet. I'd like to be able to turn it off, take it down, or whatever. You don't have that with the come bet.

Oh - and since I don't Come bet I don't worry about the 2, 3, or 12.

My preference, if I am traveling alone, would be to not place any bets on randies for obvious reasons. It would be nice however to catch a hot roll if one should occur while I am waiting for the dice to come around again.

My experience with the Dealers is that if you skip more than one shooter they have you labeled as a 'bet on myself only' player. LOL I have never gotten any heat from the Dealers or box for camping out on the rail but I have gotten a few looks from supervisors. Maybe I just imagined it? I have also observed that the majority of all players do not tip. I tip from the beginning and find that the dealers are much more amenable to my play of not betting on most shooters. I also have found that the Box is less likely to give me grief if I am being nice to the Dealers. Seems that they are happy to help out the dealers.

I don't (usually) mix Do and Don't play at one session so even if the table is very cold if I am there to play the Do I would not likely make a Don't bet.

So how to make bets on random rollers?

My official position on 'Systems' is that no system can work against random rolls. Only DI can work. Well, my Don't strategy seems to work but it is a tough way to play. Now that I have gotten to the point of mostly break even or better with DI I have not been playing the Don't

So what to do while I am waiting for the dice to come back around?

If I am playing a Do session I usually use a 5 count to entry. That will eliminate all quick 7 outs and will keep me off the majority of the random shooters. It will also give me an entry if a hot roll comes along. If the Shooter does complete a 5 count I place only the 6 and 8 until I get one hit on either and turn them both off until the next point cycle.

There are probably more refinements to be made but that is the general strategy. Do I think it will make me money in the long run? No!! It is intended to keep me in the game, at least somewhat, while I am waiting for the dice to come back around and to get me in on a hot roll while protecting me from quick 7 outs.

irish wrote:Thoughts?

I like it. I hadn't given much thought to the P-P-SO. I am usually concerned with the PSO. On other shooters, I'll sometimes make a Come Bet once the first point is established. I then wait for a box number before I supplement that with a single place bet and 1x odds on the come. (I'll replace come if craps is rolled only once otherwise I wait for next shooter). I then make a game of building my bets up and out once I've recouped my outlay. If the shooter makes his pass, I'll then bet the PL a la Grafstein qualifying event. I make a PL odds bet from part of the place bet payouts, building to max (3x4x5x) as game continues (hopefully).

Lately, I've only been laying the point for the PSO avoidance and moving it split between 6&8 after 1st box number is rolled.

If I'm just looking for a cheap way to play the game then on a $5 game I'll play SIA's one hit - can't miss, bypassing the come-out and starting with a $6 DC. Once it's established play $6 each on the six and eight. One hit on either the six or eight and you are guaranteed a win for the hand. The most you can lose once the bets are established is $6 per shooter.

heavy wrote:If I'm just looking for a cheap way to play the game then on a $5 game I'll play SIA's one hit - can't miss, bypassing the come-out and starting with a $6 DC. Once it's established play $6 each on the six and eight. One hit on either the six or eight and you are guaranteed a win for the hand. The most you can lose once the bets are established is $6 per shooter.

One hit - cant miss.......This is how I play ALMOST all the time on randies, exception is it's always a dime game.
If the table is warm to hot I'll bypass the DC and just place bet an $18 six and eight. One hit........maybe two and then I'm down.

My goal is to just bide time waiting for the moderate to big hand to come. If I'm with a group of my DI buds, I'll usually 4 or 5 count them and IF their toss looks "on" I bet accordingly.

When I'm tossing I have my PL bet and after I set my point I immediately put down min odds AND make one come bet hedging a PSO. I always set for inside numbers, so as soon as I toss one I immediately place bet the six and eight ($30 or $60 ea) As the hand progresses I increase both my PL odds and any come bet odds with winnings from the 6 and 8.

I agree with Irish, that initial come bet has saved me money due to the dreaded PSO..........This is a boring way to play since I NEVER have more than 4 numbers (usually 2 or 3) in play at any time, but when I'm tossing repeating numbers it's a moneymaking play.

Aj

I'll give you another one that I stumbled across recently while doing some research for this month's newsletter (which I hope to wrap up tonight, proof read and get in the mail tomorrow). It's one of those systems that couches everything in "units" instead of dollar amounts. I'm not going to do that. I'm just going to say we're playing a $15 game instead of saying 3 units. You do what you want with it.

$15 Don't Pass. Once the point is established lay $60 Odds.

Now Place the Six and Eight for $18 Each.

Make a $15 Come Bet. Wherever it travels - take $30 odds. If it travels to the six or eight bring down the place bets (or what's left of them after taking odds)

Make a second Come Bet. Wherever it travels - take $30 odds. Same as above.

When you have two Come Bets established you stop betting. If the Come Bets do not cover the six and eight you leave the six and eight bets up. You do not bet again until one of the Come Bets gets paid.

If the seven shows at any point you collect your winnings from the Don't Pass, wave goodbye to your right side bets and start all over again.

Definitely a little more aggressive than the one hit - can't miss play. Intriguing, though.

heavy wrote:If I'm just looking for a cheap way to play the game then on a $5 game I'll play SIA's one hit - can't miss, bypassing the come-out and starting with a $6 DC. Once it's established play $6 each on the six and eight. One hit on either the six or eight and you are guaranteed a win for the hand. The most you can lose once the bets are established is $6 per shooter.

I really have to advocate SIA's 'One Hit Can't Miss'.
I did this the other night and ran into like 5 PSO in a row. Lost like $48 on a $10 table. I think that's like the worst case scenario. You hit me twice with CO 7/11, I would leave that shooter alone. Kept me playing while I waited for the dice though. I had actually made about 12 units at Ceasers AC, then lost it at Trop, GN with some terrible shooting on my part. All in all I love this system because it seems like 9/10 the table is going to be choppy somehow and this system lets you feel like a winner no matter what and if you get a couple hot rollers you can press the 6/8 a few times and make money.

heavy wrote:If I'm just looking for a cheap way to play the game then on a $5 game I'll play SIA's one hit - can't miss, bypassing the come-out and starting with a $6 DC. Once it's established play $6 each on the six and eight. One hit on either the six or eight and you are guaranteed a win for the hand. The most you can lose once the bets are established is $6 per shooter.

What do you do if the DC goes to the 6 or 8?

irish wrote:I guess what I was trying to get at was an inexpensive way to be in the game while waiting for the dice return. I'm not a fan of twiddling my thumbs while the randies have the dice. I think it's important to be involved in the game so that when the dice return, I've got a sense of things. Since a large percentage of hands will end in a wash (if you flat bet), I'm risking little. A small percentage of hands will end in a full loss, a small percentage of hands will end in a small loss, and in the case of a dandy-randy, I'd actually be in a place to take some advantage. While we can debate the pros and cons of come betting, the reason I prefer come betting in this case is that each come bet hedges the previous come bet(s) which is why so many hands will end in a wash. I don't sweat the 2 and 12. 3 and 11 wash each other.

Your strategy would have worked good at keeping you in the game at Osceola last night. I didn't play because the table was full but in the 8 hands I watched it was PSO 7 times and one guy rolled 2 box numbers before he sevened out. The guy in the spot I wanted was stuck for at least 3K, maybe more as I watched him buy in for a K twice and he had a K in the rack when I got there.

Went to dinner figuring the table would soon empty out. That never happened so played BJ for a bit and went back home.

Hi Irish
Good post and thoughts everyone.

Although I feel Come bets have a utility in some situations (e.g., hedging/lowering our exposed monies after a hit,...etc), I'm not a big fan of come bets (after about toss 1 or 2) mainly because they only get exposed to part of the typical roll duration. IMO receiving only this "part" of the roll duration is too much dilution to the high EV we receive from that one comeout toss.

I choose wagers based on what I perceive as "is it a good value buy". So if I'm doing a Come Bet on lets say roll #2,#3,#4 and the roll duration typically only lasts 4-6 tosses then I don't view this as a "good value" because the Come Bet simply doesn't get enough opportunities(typically 2-3 tosses) to win for it to have more value than say a place 6 from the very beginning because obviously the Plc6 wager may get to witness (5,6, or 7 tosses) opportunities to win. We obviously don't know how many opportunities this Plc6 bet will get to see but I do know it will be exposed to a potentially winning toss(C+1 or2, that is 1 or 2 more toss opportunities then my Come bet).
Though I will be first to point out the "opportunity" and great value the ComeBet gives on the comeout roll and some may view my opinion as myoptic (near sighted) regarding the Come wager, but thats just my quick thoughts on doing the Come bet with RRs.
**I do utilize the Come bet some on myself or other DI later on in the hand but usually only in situations where I'm in significant positive territory and have pressed out from my initial two wagers, have all numbers covered with Plc wagers, and I'm simply sending out 2 or 3 consecutive Come bets with odds as Lower-HE replacements for a few of orig Place wagers.

So from my perspective the (Cbets) value to my "wagering on randies" strategy is mainly just the value on that one roll(comeout) as a hedge. Because of this I typically will only utilize the Come Bet on the first toss and maybe the second toss.

My Typical RR Wager Strategy with and without Come bets:
I utilize the method below on RR and even DIs that I havnt observed or had the chance to form an opinion. This method will in most sessions (>80% sessions) produce a positiveNet as I track my RR et al returns in a separate part of my rack. Usually I will see a net of maybe +$20-50 dollars in an average session and seldom down more than (-25--30) at any point during the session. The hands giving 2-3 hits seem to dilute the sting of those 0/1 hit hands and then a RR will toss that 12roll hand which includes 4-5 paying hits and that is what typically produces the aforementioned small win. Plus I'm in a good low cost position if/when the RR tosses a 20-30 hand as a few times I've picked up $200-300 RR win(With "few" being the key word). I might also add that sometimes when I'm approaching the end of my session and I notice my RR wagers are lets say +$40net I may cut off all RR wagers to secure this +net.

For example: My typical RR wager is a plc bet on the 6/9 for $6/$5 by themselves and let them go til the 7 shows or I may start pressing one unit on the 5th hit.
Sometimes I do the following to provide a little regression and still keep two wagers in action: Lets say the shooter has hit the 5 a couple times I will then get my first hit on my Plc 6, I will then reduce my exposure by 9% and move that Plc6 to the 5 so I'm then holding $7 on the Pc6 hit with $10 ($5 5 and orig $5 9) instead of original $11 exposed.

OR WITH COME BETS:
I will do this same plac bet as above on 6/9 for $6/$5 with a $5 Come bet(typically on the first toss after the initial comeout, although sometimes i do a wotco with Passline @ $5), If the Come bet moves to one of my plc wagers then I stop come bets and remove the just hit Plc wager. If that initial Come bet travels to a non6/9 number then I will remove my initial Plc9 so that I still only have $11 exposed. I will then do a second come bet for $5 and once again if it travels to a Plc wager I remove my just hit plc wager and I now have $10 exposed with $7 in profit and I let it ride til the 7 shows or the 5th paying hit I may start pressing one unit and one unit every two hits thereafter. If that 2nd Come bet traveled to a non6/9 I remove my remaining plc wager so that I only have two wagers (which would be the two come bets @ $5 each ).

*With either of the above methods I seldom regress to one or zero wagers. My main thoughts is thAT $11 is such a small % of my buyin and its the few hands where I get >=3/4 hit hands that typically provides the Net+ RR wins. Therefore I never pull one of the wagers down if my RR wagering is negative for that session. The only exception is if I'm ahead on my RR wagering and getting tired or know I'm only going to shoot one more time I may pull down the Plc9 wager after one hit and just leave the Plc6 to lock up a small RR win.
***Reminder all of the above thoughts are for wagering mostly on RR and unknown DIs.


Thx for post and replies

All the best,
Tgold

Thanks for that Tgold. Any reasons for betting the 6&9 specifically, or is that just the way things turned out?

Hmmmm I think I like that betting idea Irish! I was a come bettor when I started playing ... And since I find it difficult being at a table and not betting ... It would keep me "in the game" while waiting for the dice. I'm going to play around with the idea a bit and may give it a try at the tables in early January. My wonderful wife surprised me with a stop over in Las Veas on the way home to the rock after the holidays out on the west coast.
Cheers
B

Hi London Shooter--hope the year is finishing as strong as your recent Vegas trip.

Re: RR wagering and my choice of 6/9 vs 5/8--Not really , just my favorite numbers to start out with. I might do the 5/8 if that seems to be a more favorable duo for a shooter on his or her last hand. For the most part I don't jump around much in a session as I stay with whichever pair I started on.

Although you didn't ask I might mention that IMO this approach (like most methods) seems to do better if I don't chase whatever hot # is occurring but just be patient. However, I'm also of the opinion that IF we note several shooters are just raining 5/8s (and not raining my 6/9s), then yes I might switch from the 6/9 pair to 5/8. Though its likely just a random clumping of a few numbers over a few hands, with everything else being equal we might as well go with whats showing.


All the best,
Tgold

OK Tgold thanks for the further explanation.